engle skillpoint 9 08 final2
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Presentation by Chris Engle from New Economy StrategeisTRANSCRIPT
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The Future of the Central Texas Economy and Workforce
Globalization and the Future of Education
Chris EngleChief Project Officer
New Economy Strategies, LLC
www.new-econ.com
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NES: Capacity Building for Innovation and Knowledge
Public Policy
Economic Development
WorkforceDevelopment
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NES has Worked with Global, National and Regional Clients
* List not exhaustive – examples only
Universidad de Puerto RicoGlobal
National
State
Government*
Regional
Global
Domestic
Other
Entities
Academic/NGO Institutions*
Tennessee Michigan Iowa Indiana
North Dakota Texas Utah Kansas
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Our Recent Client in Philadelphia
Mission:
To accelerate the
transformation of the life
sciences industry in the
14-county tri-state region
into an internationally
recognized center for
excellence. DVIN will
attract resources to
support research, industry
and human capital
development.
Goals/Activities:
• Workforce Gap Analysis
• Education & Outreach
• Human Capital Development
• Regional Collaboration and
Knowledge Sharing
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Today’s Discussion
Trends in Global Economy and Education
Central Texas’ Future
Impact on Jobs, Skills, and Education
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Core Question
What is the value of education?
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$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Not High
School
Graduate
Graduate,
including GED
Some College
no degree
Associate
degree
Bachelor's
degree
Bachelor's &
More
Career Earnings Growth By Age
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-64Higher education = higher starting salary +
better ability to grow lifetime earnings
$80,600
$28,500
+21% +23% +32% +24% +34% +49%
Earnings
Growth
Age 30-60
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Globalization Needs Higher Education
Well-educated workers thrive in a global economy
…But can also be threatened by new economic models
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National Innovation Initiative CEO Survey
40%
5%26%
29%
Modifications or extension of existing products or product lines
Copies of competitors' products
Products that are new to the industry
None of the above
How Does Innovation Occur in your Company?
- New Products- Modified Products- Copies of Competitors- None of the above
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Workforce
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Core Question
Are we succeeding in preparing students for global realities?
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Educational Attainment is Falling Texas
18.8
30.129.0 28.7 28.7
23.9
18.2
12.9
5.34.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
No High School
Diploma
High School
Graduate
Some College Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Prof.
Degree
2000 2040
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
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Education Trends in US
Have we reached the top?
90%
30%
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Concern is Demographic Trends
Texas is facing:
Falling graduation rates
Falling education levels
Falling incomes
Falling prosperity for Texas workers and competitiveness for Texas industry
Cause: statistical impacts due to immigration and fertility trends
Perspective on “Progress” depends on how you draw the circle
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Demographics Influence Topline Statistics
On an individual level, each generation of families in Texas is more educated than the previous generation.
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
White, non-
hispanic
Black Hispanic Asian
2001 2003 2005 2007
% of Adults 18-24 with High School Degree
?
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Shifts We Can’t Ignore
Demographics
Globalization of talent
Threats to job security
Multiple Career Changes over Lifetime
Constant Transformation of Skills and
Knowledge
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Core Question
What should be Education’s focus?
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Connecting Education to Economic Development
High schools - STEM
Community Colleges
Universities
On the Job Training
Workforce Boards
Interdisciplinary skills
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High Demand for Non-technical Skills in Tech IndustryEducation Requirements (ONET)
Current Occupation of Focus:
15-1021 Computer programmers
15-1021.00 Rating
(1-5)
24 Programming 4.63
7 Critical Thinking 4.58
5 Complex Problem Solving 4.46
3 Active Learning 4.27
26 Reading Comprehension 4.22
13 Learning Strategies 3.98
22 Operations Analysis 3.97
4 Active Listening 3.90
34 Technology Design 3.89
36 Troubleshooting 3.87
6 Coordination 3.54
35 Time Management 3.36
32 Systems Analysis 3.32
31 Speaking 3.27
9 Equipment Selection 3.15
25 Quality Control Analysis 3.13
10 Installation 3.12
17 Mathematics 3.08
12 Judgment and Decision Making 3.01
11 Instructing 2.96
18 Monitoring 2.91
27 Repairing 2.86
30 Social Perceptiveness 2.82
Education Requirements (ONET)
Current Occupation of Focus:
17-2031 Biomedical engineers
17-2031.00 Rating
(1-5)
28 Science 4.44
26 Reading Comprehension 4.37
31 Speaking 4.36
35 Time Management 4.30
4 Active Listening 4.12
34 Technology Design 4.12
12 Judgment and Decision Making 4.12
7 Critical Thinking 4.05
5 Complex Problem Solving 4.05
37 Writing 4.05
36 Troubleshooting 4.04
25 Quality Control Analysis 4.03
32 Systems Analysis 4.02
22 Operations Analysis 3.89
13 Learning Strategies 3.85
3 Active Learning 3.81
17 Mathematics 3.81
9 Equipment Selection 3.62
18 Monitoring 3.62
15 Management of Material Resources 3.60
33 Systems Evaluation 3.56
23 Persuasion 3.54
27 Repairing 3.51
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Skills & Competencies Transformation in Technology
From industry interviews, Future Demand for Skills and Competencies of workers will be characterized as cross-disciplinary:
Creative/People skills vs. pure Science
Diversity of knowledge vs. Niche Specialization
Entrepreneurial vs. Hierarchical
Dynamic and Flexible vs. Static Job Descriptions
Performance-based Compensation
Career Lattices vs. Career Tracks
Multiple jobs and companies
Horizontal teamwork vs. Silo’d Research
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“It is not the strongest of species that
survive, nor the most intelligent, but
the ones most responsive to change.”
Change is Inevitable: WIBs Are Critical to Responding!
Charles Darwin
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Education Demands are Increasing
Fastest growing positions in U.S. will require Bachelor’s and above. These will account for 30% of all new jobs.
Training level:> Associate degree
Doctoral degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Bachelor's plus experience
First professional degree (MD/lawyer)
> Postsecondary vocational award
> Short-term on-the-job
> Work experience in a related occupation
> Moderate-term on-the-job
> Long-term on-the-job
% Growth26%
25%
22%
21%
20%
18%
18%
14%
11%
11%
9%
New Jobs1.3 million
0.1
0.4
3.6
1.4
0.3
1.1
7.2
1.2
3.1
1.0
But majority of new jobs require Associates or below.
2002-2012
% Growth19%
22%
19%
17%
9%
14%
14%
9%
9%
7%
6%
New Jobs1.1 million
0.4
0.4
3.1
0.6
0.3
1.1
4.6
1.3
2.0
0.7
2002-2012
70%
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U.S. Occupational Forecast
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Top 10 Job Creators
1. Combined Food Preparation & Serving Wrkrs, Inc. Fast Food2. Retail Salespersons3. Waiters & Waitresses4. Customer Service Representatives5. Registered Nurses6. Elementary School Teachers, Ex. Special Education7. General & Operations Mgrs8. Janitors & Cleaners, Ex. Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners9. Executive Secretaries & Administrative Assistants10.Office Clerks, General
Healthcare, teaching, and food will create most new jobs and also see highest % growth
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Austin Economy Will Grow at a Slower Pace
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
TechDownturn
Today
Annualized Job Growth Rate, Austin 5-county metro
2.5%
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Long-Term Trends for Central Texas
Long-term trends in Austin point to a “normalization” with US
Slower, more stable growth
Less reliant on technology sectors
But Austin will remain at the front of the pack:
Lower unemployment
Tops in business rankings
Growth 1.5-2x national average
Faster growth than other Texas metros
Technology focused on creative areas, not manufacturing
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Recent Growth Trends - 2007
Source: BLS, AngelouEconomics
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In-migration to Austin is a Big Factor in Future
Austin keeps attracting educated young professionals – many of whom bring a job with them
And retirees move here to get closer to their grandchildren!
Source: IRS,
AngelouEconomics
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Best Job Opportunities
Fastest growing sectors:
Software
Digital media/film
Medical device design/manufacture
Warehousing / Distribution centers
Tourism
Back office
Healthcare
Childcare
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Best High-Wage Careers in Austin
Fastest growing professional/technical occupations (non-health):
Actuaries
Statisticians
Network Administrators
Computer Analysts
Computer Engineers
Database Administrators
Biochemists, biophysicists
NOT: accountants, lawyers, “physical” engineers, architects, economists, semiconductor processors
NOT: telemarketing, travel agents
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Policy Implications
In my humble opinion:
Emphasize verbal communication and presentation skills in school, not just books and tests
Emphasize competencies as a career choice – easier to grasp than picking a career or industry
Teach Lifelong learning skills but test on-the-spot learning
Teach how technology works
Support arts education as complement to creative learning
Get students in front of like-minded workers (professional, technical, and non-technical)
Teach entrepreneurship and business skills – how to create a job and keep it !
Recognize that college and STEM education still the best outcome for a student, but can’t be the answer for everyone
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Thank you.
Questions / Comments to:
Chris EngleChief Project Officer
New Economy Strategies, LLC
www.new-econ.com
512-280-1799