An initiative of

Energy and Climate Securitygy yfor a World of 10 Billion People

Dr. Gerhard Knies ,Dr. Oliver Steinmetz & Mouldi Miled

DESERTEC Foundation

Alexandrie 31 mars 2010

An initiative of

Agenda g

- The Context

– The Concept

– From Concept to Organisation

DESERTEC Foundation• DESERTEC Foundation

• DESERTEC’s Industrial Initiative

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

Strategic Objectivesg j

E d Cli tEnergy and Climate Security for a World of 10Security for a World of 10 Billion People

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

Climate Change is changing living conditions on Earthg

CC is REALCC can get OUT OF CONTROLE: Δ T < 2° a must

CC i MAN MADE h did it ? ( k hi !)CC is FAST: 25 years left for T < 2°CC can get OUT OF CONTROLE: Δ T < 2 a must

CC is MAN-MADE: who did it ? (we know him !)Continued CC is CRASH for humankind: stop it !

DESERTEC: Clean Power from Deserts for a sustainable

Stop it ! -- Who ? How ?

DESERTEC: Clean Power from Deserts for a sustainable world with10 billion people

is a promising approach to stop CC in due time

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

World-Population 1800-2100 & Earth‘s carrying cap. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-Population-1800-2100.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World Population 1800 2100.png

NOW

10 bn

Earth Carrying capacity: 5 bn

NOW

Earth Carrying capacity: 5 bn5 bn

3 bn

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

Clean energy – key to Humankind Security stability issues for an Earth with 10 billion people

Limit POPULATIONto 10 bn people

stability issues for an Earth with 10 billion people

to 10 bn people

more WATERdesalination

i

more Civilization& wealth per cap reprocessing& wealth per cap

Clean and sufficient energy/power

can give for 10 bn people

more FOODIrrigation, fertilizer

distribution

Global and inter-generational

justice

can give for 10 bn people ecological and social

stability

ClimateBio

Luxembourg 20100118

stability

6

Diversity

An initiative of

Power demand & supply scenario (TWh/y)in MENA and EU

MENA: Transition Mix 2000-20503500

4000

4500

DesalinationE t S l3500

4000

4500

DesalinationE t S l

including export to Europe and power

for water desalination

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh/

y]

Export SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil / Gas

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Elec

trici

ty [T

Wh/

y]

Export SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil / Gas

+600%

+600%

0

500

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

CoalNuclear

0

500

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

CoalNuclear

mpo

rt!

Source: DLR studies

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

y [T

Wh/

y]

Import SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomass2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

y [T

Wh/

y]

Import SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomass

EU: By clean power from deserts EU may gain

10-15 years in the fight against climate

change, by importing 17% from MENA

I

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Elec

trici

ty Wave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Elec

trici

ty Wave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear

g , y p g

Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable

energies, nuclear energy can be phased out

completely, and oil, gas and coal largely.

Luxembourg 20100118

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

An initiative of

Potential of Renewable Energies in EU-MENAg

Potential for electricity production in TWh/a

Biomass Geothermal Solar

1.350 TWh/a 1.100 TWh/a 630.000 TWh/a

1.950 TWh/a 1.350 TWh/a

DESERTS: 6 hours sun shine = world energy demand 1 yearDESERTS: 6 hours sun shine = world energy demand 1 year

Max

Wind Hydro Min

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

How much power will be needed by 10 billion people?p

1 2 3 41. 2050 average power per person and year

5 MWh/y

2.2050 electro mobility per person and year

1 MWh/y

3. World population 2050:9 - 10 billion people

60 000 TWh/y

4.2500 solar hours per/y:

12 000 5 MWh/yData 2006World 3.1OECD 8.6USA 12.2

1 MWh/y

km/person: 10,000

Germany 2007: 13,000

person/car 2

60,000 TWh/y(+/- 20%)

2009: 18,000 TWh/y

in 2050: 50% as solar

12,000

solar GigaWatt

collectors

globallyIndia 0.9Germany 6.4

Electr./100km: 20kWh in 2050: 50% as solarpower from DESERTS

DESERTEC for30,000 TWh/y

globally

35 years, 1GW/day

30,000 TWh/y(+/- 20%)

Saving the planet will become largest business case of the decades ahead of us

Luxembourg 201001189

An initiative of

DESERTEC Concept for EU-MENA1/7th of world 1,400 GW solar collector capacity/ , p y

Studies by DLR forEUMENA regionEUMENA region- MED-CSP- TRANS-CSPfor German gov‘t

CLUB OF ROMEWhite Paper 2009www.desertec.org

Sk t h f ibl i f t t f t i bl l f

Luxembourg 20100118

Sketch of a possible infrastructure for a sustainable supply of powerto Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (EU-MENA)

An initiative of

12,000 solar GigaWatt from DesertsPowerhouse desert for the world

+ HVDC super grid to a World with 10 billion People

3000 km

Within 3000 km from deserts:

To more than 90% of world pop clean power from deserts available

3000 km

10% loss

Luxembourg 20100118

clean power from deserts available.

11

An initiative of

Social Consequencesq

The wealth, well-being and peace of our partner countries in and near desert regions depends oncountries in and near desert regions depends on

– Access to energyDESERTEC power

– Access to waterDESERTEC desalination

• Conflicts, e.g. Jordan river:Israel / Palestine / Gaza …

– Access to foodAccess to foodeven in currently arid regions?!

– Birth rates are

Luxembourg 20100118

inversely proportional to wealth!

An initiative of

A sustainable energy system for a world population of 10 billion is feasible

7 it i f l b l l ti

There are many clean and renewable sources: Solar (PV and CSP), wind, waves, tidal, hydro, biomass, geothermal,…

7 criteria for a global solution:1. climate security2. enough for 10 billion people,3. accessible to >90% of world pop.p p4. long term source security5. sufficiently fast deployable (1GW/day):6. cost stability7 available by demand7. available by demand

There is to my knowledge only 1 such source complying with all 7 criteria:

Solar power from deserts generated by CSTP So a po e o dese ts ge e ated by CS

because of

• heat storage for day+night operation,

• best global availability

Luxembourg 20100118 13

An initiative of

Concentrating solar collector technologies: basic layout schemes

Absorber Tube

Absorber tube andreconcentrator

CurvedmirrorAbsorber

TubeAbsorber tube andreconcentrator

Curvedmirror

Pipe with thermal fluid

Curved mirror

Pipe with thermal fluid

Curved mirror

thermal fluid

Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel

thermal fluid

Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel

Linear Concentrationconc: 100, T: ~ 500° C

Solar Receiver

Receiver / Engine

Reflector

Solar ReceiverSolar Receiver

Receiver / Engine

Reflector

Receiver / Engine

Reflector

C

H li t tH li t tH li t t

Point Concentrationconc: 1000+, T: ~ 1000° C

Luxembourg 20100118

Heliostats

Central ReceiverDish/EngineHeliostatsHeliostats

Central ReceiverDish/Engine

An initiative of

Parabolic trough collectorsKramer Junction USA, 1990J US , 990

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

Andasol 1: Andalusia, Spain, operating since 2009 molten salt heat storage = solar power day+night

Luxembourg 20100118 16

An initiative ofCost for CSP power plants + EU-MENA Supergridfor 15% of EU consumption

20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Transfer Capacity GW

2050204020302020Year

20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Transfer Capacity GW

2050204020302020Year

0 800 750 670 60Capacity Factor

70047023060Electricity Transfer TWh/y

20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Transfer Capacity GW

0 800 750 670 60Capacity Factor

70047023060Electricity Transfer TWh/y

20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Transfer Capacity GW

0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor

50 x 5040 x 4030 x 3015 x 15Land Area CSP

352412.53.8Turnover Billion €/y

0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor

50 x 5040 x 4030 x 3015 x 15Land Area CSP

352412.53.8Turnover Billion €/y

35024514342Investment CSP

50 x 503600 x 1.0

40 x 403600 x 0.7

30 x 303600 x 0.4

15 x 153100 x 0.1

Land Area CSPkm x km HVDC

35024514342Investment CSP

50 x 503600 x 1.0

40 x 403600 x 0.7

30 x 303600 x 0.4

15 x 153100 x 0.1

Land Area CSPkm x km HVDC

Power plants

4531205Billion € HVDC0.0400.010

0.0400.010

0.0450.010

0.0500.014

Elec. Cost CSP€/kWh HVDC

4531205Billion € HVDC0.0400.010

0.0400.010

0.0450.010

0.0500.014

Elec. Cost CSP€/kWh HVDC

grid

Luxembourg 20100118

0 0 00 0 00 0 00 0€/ C 0 0 00 0 00 0 00 0€/ C

17

An initiative of

Where is the energy/climate problem ?

ResourcesResourcesEnergy resource DESERT : over-abundantCapital: existing Initial DELTA-Financing to be solved

TechnologiesS l h (CS ) kSolar techno (CSP): workingHeat storage techno: workingWind techno workinggHVDC transmission techno.: workingDesalination techno working

Implementation

1 GW CSP collector per day feasible

Luxembourg 20100118 18

An initiative of

DESERTEC –from Concept to Organisation

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

DESERTEC Foundation

Non-profit foundation, founded 2008 in BerlinNon profit foundation, founded 2008 in Berlin

Objectives– „Roadblock Remover“ for clean energy from deserts

Worldwide lobbying for favourable political & financial conditions• Worldwide lobbying for favourable political & financial conditions• Defending environmental and social standards• Building alliances, mobilise partners, drive pilot projects• Spreading know-how, promoting best practices• Co-ordinating activities around the Globe• Helping countries learn from each other

Founders– Private persons from the worldwide TREC network

• from their own money– Additional Co-Founders, Sponsors, Partners welcome

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

DESERTEC Foundation Objectivesj

ConceptFeasibility studies to answer per country! the questions– Feasibility studies to answer – per country! - the questions

• What for? What? How? When?

Acceptance “on the ground”p g– Inform / “infect” (seminars, Conferences …)

– Involve: Politics, Business, Academic, Civil Society

– Realise projects & pilot projects

Achieve willingness / Buy-in– To invest: Incentives, Partnerships

– (De)regulation

Luxembourg 20100118

– Finance

An initiative of

DESERTEC’s Industrial Initiative (DII)

Project company DII GmbH, founded October 30th

2009

( )

2009

Shareholders

– Currently screening additional shareholders and partners,preferably from additional countries

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

DII Objectivesj

In 3 years 2010-2012f f bl l d l l– Creation a of favourable regulatory and legislative

environment

– Development of a roll-out plan p p

– Proposal of concrete reference projects

– Additional or more detailed studies, where needed (e.g. on , ( gfeasibility)

Pilot projects already during these 3 years

Fostering local / regional development!

Luxembourg 20100118

An initiative of

How to implement ?3 Phases for a DESERTEC roll-out programmeg

DESERTEC GLOBAL DEPLOYMENT PLANA rough implementation scheme:

Phase 1 6 years HIGH SPEED MARKET INTRODUCTION 20 GW2010 -2015 policy driven

external financial support :external financial support :

Phase 2 20 years COLLECTOR PRODUCTION SCALE UP2016– 2035, market driven

3 500 GW/year: +30% p.a., duplication in 2.5 years

Phase 3 25 years HIGH SPEED DEPLOYMENT2025 – 2050 market driven2025 2050, market driven

average 1.2 GW-coll/day, investment ca. 3 bn €/day

Fast completion of phase 1 = key to success !

Luxembourg 2010011824

Main task for DESERTEC Foundation

An initiative of

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Luxembourg 20100118