energy planning
TRANSCRIPT
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IAEA Tools for
Energy System PlanningandNuclear Energy System Modelling
NESA Support Package
IAEA/INPRO group
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Part I IAEA Tools for Energy System Planning
Based on Training Material ofPlanning and Economic Studies Section
Department of Nuclear EnergyInternational Atomic Energy Agency
Content
Introduction Energy system planning and INPRO assessment
Energy Tools and Methodologies for Energy Planning
IAEA Analytical Tools for Energy Planning MAED
MESSAGE
WASP
FINPLAN
SIMPACTS
ISED
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Energy system planning and INPRO
assessmentDevelopment of energy demand scenariosNational, regional, global
Specification of the potential role of nuclear
power
to contribute to mix of energy supply
National, regional, global
Selection of components of NES
Modelling of NES
Energy system
planning
NESA using the
INPRO methodology
Evaluation of energy supply options
National, regional, global
Holistic Nuclear Energy System Assessment
in all INPRO areas
Part I
Part IIModeling of NES
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Energy Tools and Methodologies for
ES Planning
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IAEA Analytical Tools for Energy
Planning
Model for theAnalysis ofEnergy Demand
WienAutomatic System Planning Package
Model forEnergy Supply SystemAlternatives andtheirGeneral Environmental impacts
Financial Analysis of Electric Sector ExpansionPlans
MAED
WASP
MESSAGE
FINPLAN
SIMPACTS
ISED
Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts ofElectricity Generation
Indicators forSustainable Energy Development
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Development of energy demand scenarios
Energy demand Scenario
Overall energy situation :
national energy resourceendowment, technology options,
economic structural change,
environmental impacts,
social developments and
policy aspects
Economic and demographic growth,structural economic change and
the dynamics of sectoral energy
intensities
MAED
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Final Energy DemandElectricity Demand
Hourly Electric Load
Load Duration Curves
Base Year
Social Data
Economic Data
Technological DataMAEDModule1
Module 2
Development Policies
Final Energy Demand
MAED: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand
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Methodological Approach of MAED
Final Energy Demand
Industry Transportation Household Service
Fuel Types:Oil, Gas, Traditional, Renewable,
Nuclear
Energy End-uses:Thermal, Mechanical, Specific,
Non-Energy
Energy
efficiencies,
Market
penetrations
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Methodological Approach of MAED
MAED methodology comprises the following sequence ofoperation
(1) disaggregation of the total energy demand of thecountry or region into a large number of end-use categoriesin a coherent manner;
(2) identification of the social, economic and technologicalparameters which affect each end-use category of the
energy demand; (3) establishing in mathematical terms the relationships
which relate energy demand and the factors affecting thisdemand;
(4) developing (consistent) scenarios of social, economicand technological development for the given country; (5) evaluation of the energy demand resulting from each
scenario;
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MAED: Hourly Electric Power Demand
Model takes into account :
The trend of the average annualgrowth rate of electricity demand; The seasonal changes in
electricity consumption (thisvariation may be reflected on amonthly or weekly basis, depending
on available information); The changes in electricity
consumption owing to the type ofday being considered (i.e. workingdays, weekends, special holidaysetc.);
The hourly variation inelectricity consumption during thegiven type of day considered.
Hourly Electric Load
Load Duration Curves
0
0.5
1
1.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 2 22 23 24
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Nuclear energy demand scenario: simple
approach
An assessor may base his assumptions for the nuclear energy demand ondata provide by authoritative studies performed by energy policyorganizations within his country or by other international organizations, or;
An assessor may construct a general energy demand, and a nuclearenergy demand, based on simple generic assumptions starting from trendsin population growth, energy use per capita, technological readiness andtypical market share potential, and expected evolution of market share for
nuclear energy systems .
This simplistic approach is based on considering three factors,
expected population growth, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and
electricity intensity as a function of GDP.
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Nuclear energy demand scenario: simple approach
Study for Armenia
Energy and Nuclear Power Planning Study for Armenia, 1999-2020, TECDOC-1404, July 2004 per capita GDP $ 462 in 1999 to $ 1552 reference growth , $ 1019 low growth in 2020, the population growth from 3.2 million in 1999 to 3.26 million in 2020, The electricity demand 0.41 GW.yr in 1999. simple approach gives: (0.41/3.2)x3.26x(1552/462) = 1.40 GW.yr for the reference scenario, and
(0.41/32.)x3.26x(1019/462) = 0.92 GW.yr, for the low growth scenario. The detailed analysis yields 1.30 GW.yr and01.03 GW.yr for the two scenarios respectively.
Study for Lithuania,Energy Supply Opt ions for Lithuania, TECDOC-1408, September 2004 total GDP increases by a factor of 2.468 between 2000 and 2025 in the base scenario simple approach gives the same factor. Detailed analysis projects an increase of a factor of 2.238
Study for Poland
Comparative Studies on Energy Supply Options in Poland for 1997-2020, TECDOC-1304,August 2002
population increases from 38.66 million to 40.34 million per capita income increases for a total increase over the period by a factor of 2.47.
simple approach gives a factor of (40.34/38.660x2.47) = 2.58. Electr ical intensity of GDP was also expected todecrease by an average factor of about 25 % over this period, thus demand for electr ical energy is 1.93 Detailedmodeling gives essentially the same result.
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Evaluation of energy supply options
National, regional, globalThis kind of energy planning study has to consider many aspects such as
the availability of fuels (fossil fuels, uranium, etc.) and the reliability of their supply, sufficiency of domestic supply to meet the projected demand,
the possibility for energy imports, potential for energy exports, industrial capacity and the ability to supply components of a proposed energy system, the technical characteristics of the supply options such as
unit sizes, times between maintenance outages, characteristic capacity factors, grid size, peak to base load demand, and the current development of the energy infrastructure.
In general the selection of energy supply options will be based on driving forces such aseconomic considerations (e.g., availability of capital, cost of energy services, etc.), takinginto account constraints such as the availability of fuels, the need to limit environmentalemissions , and the desire to limit imports and diversify fuel types for strategic reasons,etc.
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Specifying the national role of nuclear energy and
the selection of NES
Share of nuclear in total demand
Expansion rate of total& nuclear demand
Time of nuclear introduction
Size of plant Grid size
Specification of NES components
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MESSAGE Introduction
Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and
their General Environmental impacts
1. Developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
2. IAEA adapted and further developed it, and also added a user-interface.
3. It is a software designed for setting up optimization models of energysupply systems in the medium to long-term considering their general
environmental impacts.
4. Optimization Criterion: Minimizing total system cost (value of theobjective function). Mathematical Techniques: Linear programming,
Mixed-integer programming
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MESSAGE Model OverviewA Physical Flow Model
Given a vector of demands, the model assuressuff icient supply, utilising the available resources and
technologies Definition of:
energy levels: primary, secondary, final, useful
energy forms (ex. coal, heat) and energy services actually used
energy technologies: inputs, outputs, efficiencies domestic resources and imports of energy
Technologies in MESSAGE represent a process that converts one energy form into another energy form or into energy
service e.g. conversion of crude oil to oi l products, oil products toelectricity, electricity to light
transfers/transmits/distributes an energy form
supplies/produces an energy form (e.g. hydro power, oil import)
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MESSAGE
INPUT&OUTPUT
OUTPUT
MESSAGE
INPUT
Energy systemstructure (includingvintage of plant andequipment)
Base year energyflows and prices
Energy demandprojections (MAED)
Technology andresource options &their techno-economic
performance profiles
Technical andpolicy constraints
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
TWh
biomass
geoth
hydro
nuclear
gas
diesel
fuel oil
coal
Primary and final energy mix Emissions and waste streams Health and environmental impacts
(externalities)
Resource use Land use Import dependence Investment requirements
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Energy Flow Network in MESSAGE
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MESSAGE FeaturesDemand Fluctuations: the Load Curve
Seasons, (Winter, Summer, etc.)
Working/Off Days
HoursMaximum 64 divisions possible
Sub-division of a year: e.g. by seasons Number of seasons,
Division of each season by type of day Division of each type of day by parts
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MESSAGE FeaturesRelations and Constraints
This is a powerful feature of MESSAGE and helps theuser model a specific strategy for the developmentof the energy system.
The model provides a flexible framework to definevarious types ofrelationships, between thetechnologies or between technologies andresources, such as:
i. Limit on a technology in relation to some other technologies (e.g., fixingshare of renewable in total electricity generation).
ii. A common limit to be met by a set of technologies (e.g., maximum limiton emission of SO2 from all technologies emitting it).
iii. Constraints between production and installed capacity (e.g., ensure take-or-pay clauses in international gas contracts forcing customers toconsume a minimum share of the contracted level during summermonths).
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Assessment of environmental impacts
The inclusion of environmental emissions in themodel is described as follows:
Air pollution is modelled proportionally to the energy flowsof each energy conversion process or fuel.
Cost and investment, existing capacities, availability,energy consumption and other characteristics of the
emission control technologies are described by a set ofparameters.
Emission control policies or targets are modelled by puttingupper limits on either the emission flows or on emission
concentrations in flue gases. Taxes are applied for CO2, SO2, NOx and dust to analysetheir impact on emission levels caused by the inducedchanges in the energy sector.
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MESSAGE Approaches to Nuclear Modeling
Mining/Milling
Conversion
Enrichment
FuelFabrication
Spent Fuel
Reprocessing
Disposal
FRONT
END
B
ACK
ENd
Spent fuel
Fresh fuel
Pu
Reactor
Using MESSAGE nuclear can be modelled with different level of details:
from general description of energy flows conversion (same as for technologies consuming
hydrocarbon fuels)
to detailed modelling fuel reloads and nuclear isotopes flows through nuclear fuel cycle
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Representation of NPP
Recourses PrimarySecondary
oil Electricitycoalcoal
Coal-Extr
Oil_Imp
Coal PP
Oil_PP
NPP fuel
NPP
NPP fueloil
Elec_TD
Oil_S_F
Electricity oil
Final
Oil_P_S
NPP SF
Front EndBack end
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Special Features of NPPs
Capital intensive technology with big unit size
Initial core/final core,Limited flexibility in operation,
Shut down for refueling
Discharge of spent fuelLong life time
Decommissioning
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MESSAGE
MESSAGE is an extremely
Flexible Model MESSAGE is a flexible framework that allows detailed
description of the energy system being modelled.
It needs users ingenuity to define the system and probepolicy questions
The MESSAGE can be used to develop a model of asystem other than energy system.
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Exampleof conceptual modelling
framework fromBrazil: A Country Profile onSustainable Energy
Development
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Global Estimation of Energy Demand
Global Primary Energy Demand
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
yr
E
J
Tatsuya Hanaoka, Reina Kawase, Mikiko Kainuma,
et al. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios
Database and Regional Mitigation Analysis. CGER-
REPORT. CGER-DO38-2006. National Institute forEnvironmental Studies, Japan, 2006.
http://www-
cger.nies.go.jp/publication/D038/all_D038.pdf
INTERNATIONAL PANEL ON CLIMATECHANGE, Special Report on Emission
Scenarios, A Special Report of Working
Group III, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge (2000),
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm
Global Estimation of Nuclear Energy
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Global Estimation of Nuclear EnergyDemand
Nuclear Power Capacity Requirement
Ave of the top 5%
Average
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GWe
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2009 2019 2029 2039 2049
GWe
Low Estimate
High Estimate
Major
Nuclear Programmes2008
2030
Low
2030
High
2060
Low
2060
High
2100
Low
2100
High
Capacity in GWe
Canada 13 20 30 25 40 30 85
China 9 50 150 150 750 500 2800
France 63 65 75 80 110 80 130
India 4 20 70 60 350 200 2750
Japan 48 55 70 80 140 80 200Russia 22 45 80 75 180 100 200
United Kingdom 11 20 30 30 80 40 140
United States 99 120 180 150 400 250 1200
SUBTOTAL 363 531 951 887 2538 1627 8443
Smaller Nuclear
Programmes2008
2030
Low
2030
High
2060
Low
2060
High
2100
Low
2100
High
Argentina 1 4 11 5 30 10 90
Armenia 0 1 0 1 1 2 4
South Africa 2 10 25 30 50 30 55
SUBTOTAL 4 30 86 64 251 102 694
Nations Planning Nuclear 20082030
Low
2030
High
2060
Low
2060
High
2100
Low
2100
High
Egypt 0 3 10 6 40 10 90
Indonesia 0 2 6 3 35 5 175
Kazakhstan 0 0 2 3 5 5 20
Turkey 0 5 15 10 50 20 160
Vietnam 0 2 4 4 30 6 120
SUBTOTAL 0 30 112 78 300 126 910
Potential Entrants 20082030
Low
2030
High
2060
Low
2060
High
2100
Low
2100
High
Italy 0 7 20 10 40 25 70
Portugal 0 0 5 5 10 5 14
Other 0 0 8 4 40 20 200WORLD TOTAL 367 604 1289 1140 3538 2062 11046
IPPC
IAEA
WNA
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Load forecast
Existing system
Candidates
Constraints:
Reliability Implementation
Fuel
Generation
Emissions
INPUT
WASP
OUTPUT
Build schedule Generation Costs Fuel consumption Emissions
WASP
WienAutomatic System Planning Package
FINPLAN
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INPUT
Investment programme(= capacity additions)& operating expenses
Economic and fiscalparameters (inflation,escalation, exchangerates, taxes)
Financial parameters
(credits, bonds)
FINPLAN
For each year:
Cash flows
Balance Sheet,Statement of Sources,
Applications of Funds Financial Ratios:
- Working Capital Ratio
- Leverage ratio
- Debt Repayment Ratio
- - Global Ratio
OUTPUT
FINPLANFinancial Analysis of Electric Sector
Expansion Plans
SIMPACTS
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SIMPACTSSimplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of
Electricity GenerationOUTPUT
Case 1 (minimal results):
uniform world model (UWM)estimate for total exposure
quantification of health impacts
monetisation of impacts
Case 2 (more output):
estimates 1 adjusted foreffective stack height(including H+V
exit+T
exit)
INPUT
Case 1 (minimum datarequirements):
pollutant emission rates regional population density
(< 1000 km)
source location (urban/rural)
Case 2 (some more data):
stack characteristics
local population (
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ISED: Indicators for Sustainable EnergyDevelopment
Measuring.
Energy Accessibility
Energy Affordability
Energy Security
Energy Efficiency/Intensity
Environmental Impact
Evaluating Successful
Development Strategies
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Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development:
Social dimension (4 indicators); Examples: Share of households (or population) without electricity or commercial
energy, or heavily dependent on non-commercial energy
Share of household income spent on fuel and electricity
Economic dimension (16 indicators); Examples: Energy use per capita
Energy use per unit of GDP Sectoral energy intensities
Environmental dimension (10 indicators); Examples:
GHG emissions from energy production and use, per capita and per unit ofGDP Air pollutant emissions from energy system
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A comprehensive study
of Brazils energy systemshows that:
Energy expenses oftentake a bigger share ofthe budgets of the poor,and
The poor consumeless electrici ty andmainly for basic needs
Example of national and regional case studies
A major pr iori ty for Brazil is to satisfy growing energy demandfuelled by population and economic growth, and to balance
this effort with environmental priorities and other issues suchas energy affordability, accessibility, security and efficiency.
Policies proposed in this study (e.g. expansion of naturalgas supply and use, renewable energy portfolio standards,expansion of production and use of ethanol fuel, andeduced electrici ty demand and fuel use) may representeffective mechanisms to achieve higher levels ofsustainable energy .
Options for Energy Supply After the Closing of
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Options for Energy Supply After the Closing ofthe Ignalina NPP
The goal is to evaluate the future supply options after theclosing of the Ignalina NPP and the implications of thetiming of its closing
Economic impacts Fuel supply security Environmental impacts
0 .0
500 .0
1000 .0
1500 .0
2000 .0
2500 .0
3000 .0
3500 .0
4000 .0
4500 .0
5000 .0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Y e a r
thous.
to.e.
P e a t
N u c l e a r
C o a l
R e n e w a b l e s
G as
O r im u l s i o nO il
a) Closing of Ignalina by the endof 2009 leads to high dependence
on gas import
b) Replacing Ignalina by a new NPPreduces import dependency, increases
fuel diversity
Fuel Consumption with and without nuclear power
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Y e a r
thous.
to.e.
P e a t
N u c l e a r
C o a l
R e n e w a b l e s
G as
O r im u l s i o nO il
Example of national case studies
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IAEA prepared a study on
Ghana under the umbrella
of UN-Energy (UN
interagency energy
group) to model
renewable policy options
A Country Profile of
South Africa explores
a variety of energy
options for enhanced
access and
affordability
A Country Profile of Cuba
presents a comprehensive
assessment of the Cuban
energy system performed
within a sustainable
development framework.
Example of national case studies
Assessing policy
options for increasing
the use of renewable
energy for sustainable
development:
Modelling energy
scenarios for Sichuan,
China
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Technical Co-operation Projects
Co-ordinated Research Projects
Regional/National Workshops
and
Training Courses
Mechanisms for IAEA Assistance
eTraining (Distance Learning)
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eTraining (Distance Learning)
The IAEA has expanded its trainingservices with the use of speciallydesigned web oriented trainingpackages for distance learning. Thesepackages are being used for on-line
delivery of training through webbased learning management andaudio/video conferencingtechnologies.
Video Conferences On-Line Tutor
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MESSAGE Distance Learning Package together
with Demo Cases (Russian version )
Distance Learning Package
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Distance Learning Package(Russian version of MESSAGE )
Energy Models Dissemination
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Energy Models DisseminationGrowing Demand for Training
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Numberofpersonstra
ined
eTraining
Coventional
120 Member States are
using IAEAs Energy Models
Follow up Expert Support
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Follow-up Expert Support
Tele-Support Expert Service for IAEAs Energy Models Users
Requests for trouble-shooting
Questions on modelling problems
Queries on updates, etc
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The IAEAs set of models provides a comprehensive analytical frameworkfor exploring a range of energy issues and informing sound policydecisions for the development of the energy sector.
These models are used for developing national energy plans and to frame
energy laws and regulations for restructured markets.
The models are also being used to prepare national communications toUNFCCC on greenhouse gas inventories.
Taken together the models provide broad coverage of all the important
energy issues, they collectively have the flexibility to be adapted to theoften very different constraints, needs and applications appropriate to
different developing countries.
Summary
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Thank you for your attention
www.IAEA.org/INPRO