oklahoma energy planning
DESCRIPTION
University of Oklahoma School of Chemical, Biological, and Materials Engineering. Oklahoma Energy Planning. Modeling the Future Energy Demands of Oklahoma. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Oklahoma Energy Planning
Mode l ing the Fu tu re Ene rgy Demands o f Ok lahoma
University of Oklahoma School of Chemical, Biological, and Materials Engineering
Vu Le Joseph Nick
So what is our project all about?
Dirty Energy Clean Energy
How much will it cost energy companies?
How much will it cost Oklahoman’s?
What can the government do to foster the much needed transition?
Modeling the Future Energy Demands of Oklahoma
Dirty Energy Clean Energy
• High CO2 emissions
• Fossil Fuel derived
• CHEAP
• Low CO2 emissions
• Sustainable energy
• Currently expensive• Compared to Dirty energy
Just how Dirty are we talking?
Oklahoma’s Current Electricity
Oklahoma’s Current Transportation Fuels
Oklahoma total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels
Coal fired plants have the highest amount of CO2 emissions for any power plant
Over 215 bi l l ion pounds of CO2 every year!!
52% from coal fired plants Less than 1% from Bio-fuels
Cost model - predict the optimal yearly energy use in Oklahoma, by
industry, so as to minimize total energy costs (net present cost) while
reducing carbon dioxide emissions and increasing total job salaries paid in
Oklahoma to specified levels.
ObjectiveThe objective of this project is to create mathematical models that will be used to plan Oklahoma’s move toward cleaner energy through the year 2030.
Profit model - predict the optimal yearly energy use in Oklahoma, by
industry, so as to maximize total profitability, net present value. Utility
pricing decisions and government tax incentives will be researched and
their effect on overall profitability will be characterized.
Develop Cost model
Develop Profit model
Model all energy used in Oklahoma from 2010 - 2030
Project goals
Easy enough r ight??
1/14/2004
5/28/2005
10/10/2006
2/22/2008
7/6/2009
0
1
2
3
4
5U.S. gas and crude oil prices 2005-
current
Gas Prices (2005-current) Crude oil spot price
($$
/gal)
Forecasted U.S. natural gas consumption data – available Forecasted Okla. natural gas consumption data – not available
Oil Refinery’s Revenues• Vary month to month & year to
year• Vary from refinery to refinery• Each one produces different products
How accurate are forecasted
commodity prices?
Assumptions, Approximations, and Estimations
Location is not considered
Constant operation cost for plants and refineries
Switchgrass used as ethanol feedstock
Soybean used as biodiesel feedstock
Construction times for new plants
◦ Wind – 1 year
◦ Everything else – 3 years
Assumptions
Energy Types
• Residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
• Plant
• Gasoline and Diesel
• Biodiesel
• Ethanol
• Coal-fired plants
• Natural gas fired
plants
• Hydroelectric plants
• Wind farms
Fuels
Electricity
Heating
Research
Past data
Present data
Projected data
• Energy Information Administration
• U.S. Department of Energy
• Oklahoma Wind Power Initiative
• Oklahoma Renewable Energy Council
Some forecasted data was readily available, while other data had to be independently forecasted by us.
Research
Total cost of energy Total carbon dioxide emissions Total Revenues Total salaries paid to Oklahoma workers
• Number of existing plants (by type)• Capacity of existing plants
• Total plant operating hours
• Plant CO2 emissions
• Current fuel prices
• Forecasted energy supply (by type)
• Forecasted energy demand (by type)
• Forecasted fuel prices
• Cost of building new plants
Examples of required data in calculating:
Electricity
Fig.1 A coal fired power plant Fig.2 Repower wind turbines Fig. 3 A hydroelectric Dam
Coal and natural gas plants Hydroelectric plants and Wind farms
Electric Energy Comparison
Comparison of coal & natural gas plants to wind & hydroelectric plants
Fuel Type
Current Capacity
(MW)Emissions
(lb. CO2/MWh)
Approx Total yearly
Emissions(lb. CO2/ yr) Pros Cons
Coal 5,362 2,300 ~ 75 billion -High existing capacity
-Cheap energy
-Enormous CO2 emissions
-Contributes greatly to global warmingNat. gas 12,883 960 ~2.6 billion
Wind 689 negligible negligible-Nearly zero
emissions
- Low O&M costs (esp. wind)
-Sustainable energy source
-Low existing capacity
-High capital costs for new plants/farmHydro 1,110
negligible negligible
Transportation Fuels
Gasoline and Diesel
(Crude Oil Refineries)
Biodiesel and Ethanol Refineries
Canadian Sand Oil Field Sunflower field, Biodiesel production
Switch grass field, Ethanol production
Fuels Comparison
Biofuels vs. Petroleum Fuels
Fuel FeedstockCapacity
(bbl/d)
RefiningEmissions(ton CO2/
bbl)
Net Emissions
(kg CO2/MJ) Pros Cons
Gasoline
Oil
240,000 0.407 94
-High existing cap.-Currently cheaper
-High emissions-Non sustainable
Diesel 200,000 0.102 83
Ethanol Biomass 130 0.466 -24(switchgrass)
-Sustainable energy-Reduces CO2 in 2
ways1. Crops absorb
CO22. Less CO2
produced in refining
-Low existing cap. this means
high costs of new plants
-Lower energy per vol. than
diesel
Biodiesel
Vegetable oil &
animal fat2,600 0.100 ~ 43
Fig. The CO2 cycle of ethanol production
Ethanol
Cellulosic biomass (switchgrass)
cellulose
fermentation
sugars
ETHANOL
enzymatic breakdown & pyrolysis
processing
Heating
(Clockwise from bottom left)
Residential- Household use
Industrial- Heat, power, and chemical feedstock use
Commercial- Use by non-manufacturing establishments
Plant- Fuel use in N.G. processing plants
Natural Gas Electricity
Natural Gas
Oklahoma Natural Gas Consumption (2007)
Type Consumption (MMcf)
Consumption (GJ)
CO2 Emissions(billion lbs/yr)
% of total use
Residential 59,842 63,254,185 11.17 17.4
Industrial 175,881185,909,869 32.87
51.2
Commercial 40,849 43,178,730 7.64 11.9
Plant 66,441 70,229,810 12.52 19.5
Total 343,015 362,572,594 64.2 100
Various estimates place natural gas at 75-90% of total heating (all sectors)
Cost Model Operation
Total Cost ‘i’ = (Fixed Opr. Cost) + (Var. Opr. Cost) + (Fuel Cost) +
(Capital Cost) + (Expansion Cost) + (Transportation Cost) + (E Carbon Capture Cost)
[(Fixed Opr. Cost) + (Var. Opr. Cost) + (Fuel Cost) + (N Carbon Capture Cost New)] new
Electricity Heating Fuels
Cost Model Operation
o CO2 emissions
o Fuel costo New plant capital cost
Each energy type has varying data for:
o Existing capacityo Future demando Job salaries creation
Increased demand New plants
Lower CO2 emissions Energy types with lower emissions or Carbon capture
More job salaries Choose energy with most jobs
Minimize Cost Choose most cost effective energy
Operating Costs
For both fuels and electricity, these costs were approximated as:
Cost = X ∙ Capacity -or-
Cost = X ∙ Fuel Used Where X is a function of the energy type.
Fixed operating and maintenance (Fixed O&M) costs
Salaries Wind farm lease payments Insurance payments
Variable operating and maintenance (Var. O&M) costs
Raw material costs Utility payments
Fuel costs
Fuels Crude Oil, Switchgrass, SoybeanElectricity Coal, Natural Gas
Fixed Operating Cost
The Fixed and Variable O&M costs for all 9 energy types were not readily available from one source.
Examples of organization and company websites were used to locate our O&M cost data
Energy and Environmental Economies Incorporated
Energy Information Administration
U.S. Department of Agriculture
American Wind Energy Association
Baker & O’Brien Incorporated
Resource Dynamic Corporation
Documented, credible sources.
Capital Cost
Capital costs are the costs of building new plants or expanding existing plants.
Cost = ( X ∙ Capacity ) + Y
Unlike fixed and variable O&M costs, capital costs have a minimum associated cost and thus can not be approximated as easily.
What to do? Analyze data from previous plant constructions and plant expansions
Electricity Capital Cost
Data we were able to find made no distinctions between electricity plant fuel sources (coal, natural gas, etc)
Not including hydro-electric and wind energy
Unlike fuels, new electricity plants can be built and are not limited to expansions
Minimum cost for new coal and NG plant
construction, regardless of capacity ~ 259 million
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 18000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
f(x) = 0.874639830017284 x + 259.267080190175
Electricity Plant Capacity vs. Capital Cost
Coal plants capacity vs. capital cost
Linear (Coal plants capacity vs. capital cost)
Capacity (MW)
Capit
al C
ost
(M
illions$
)
Wind Capital Cost
There is no minimum installed capital cost for new wind energy operations
Capital cost is a function of capacity
where X is the average installed cost per MW
Installed cost = 1,750,000 $ MW
Cost = X ∙ capacity
Job Salary Creation
Total Salary = Existing Salaries (2009) + New Salaries
New Salaries = New Operation Salaries + New Construction Salaries
Operation Salaries = Wages paid to engineers and employees who work to operate and maintain energy creation facilities Example: Plant managers, plant engineers, plant operators, etc
Construction Salaries = Wages paid to engineers and employees who work in constructing new energy creation facilities Example: Construction engineers, construction workers, transportation drivers
We are evaluating job creation in the state of Oklahoma using total wages paid to Oklahoma workers yearly
Construction Salary
From Perry’s Chemical Engineers’ Handbook
Plant construction costs as % of total plant installation cost (total capital)
Construction Labor Expenses 34%
Construction Material Expenses 66%
Total Expenses (total capital cost) 100%
New Operation Salary
0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 250000000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
f(x) = 3.6502267039919E-06 x + 98.5401165586337
Series1Power (Series1)Series3Linear (Series3)Linear (Series3)
Plant Capacity (kg/day)
Ope
ratin
g La
bor
(em
ploy
ee H
ours
)
[1] Convert our capacity data into kg / day
[2] Estimate the number of process steps involved
[3] Calculate salary paid from employee hours per day
required
The following graph was constructed using data from DESIGN, figure 6-9
Calculate average refinery employee’s salaryEngineers vs. non-engineer workers
Profit Model Operation
Electricity Heating Fuels
o Operation Costs
o New plant capital cost
Each energy type has varying data for:
o CCS cost
Profitability
Explored different scenarios for:
Tax breaks • New sustainable energy types• Carbon Capture, existing plants• Job creation
Emissions and job creation
Minimum price to consumers to meet specified return on investment
o Revenues
Algebraic Model
ValuePresent Net maximize Objective
n
t
n
t
n
tt
Heatt
t
Fuelt
t
Electt
i)(1
Profit) (Annual
i)(1
Profit) (Annual
i)(1
Profit) (Annual ValuePresent Net
Indices◦ t time period (yrs)
◦ i Individual boiler or refinery◦ j Fuel type (i.e. coal/natural gas)
Sets
◦ new New plants or refineries
◦ Electric, Fuel, Heat
Algebraic Model
Algebraic Model
FuelNew,t
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tureCost)(CarbonCaptureCost)(CarbonCap (FuelCost)t)(VarOprCosost)(FixedOprC
ionCost)(TransportCost)(Expansionst)(CapitalCo (FuelCost)t)(VarOprCosost)(FixedOprC Cost) (Total
Heatt
Heatt
Heatt t)(VarOprCosost)(FixedOprC Cost) (Total
Algebraic Model (Electricity)
i j
New,Electijt
New,Electijt
New,Electijt
i j
Electijt
Electijt
Electijt
i
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i j
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EεQ
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PEGU
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ˆ(FuelCost)
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ost)(FixedOprC
ElectricNew,t
Electrict
,,,,ElectNew,t
,,,ElectNew,t
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,,,,ElectNew,t
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Algebraic Model (Fuel+Heat)
Fuelt
Fuelijt
i j
Fuelij
Fuelij
refineriesoili oilj
FuelNewijt
FuelNewijt
FuelNewijt
FuelNewijt
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i j
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i
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i
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i j
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PBTruckCapMileageostTruckFuelCledMilesTrave
WyCS
WyCS
PBU
PBV
F
ˆationCost)(Transport
ˆCost)(Expansion
ˆtalCost)(FixedCapi
ˆ(FuelCost)
ˆt)(VarOprCos
ost)(FixedOprC
Fuelt
,,,,FuelNew,t
,,,,FuelNew,t
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,,,FuelNew,t
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,, ˆ
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Algebraic Model (Profit)
ElectNew,ijt
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Profit Gross BreaksTax
Profit Gross(TaxRate) Taxes
tureCost)(CarbonCap
(FuelCost)t)(VarOprCosost)(FixedOprCostOperationC
onDepreciati
PriceratedEnergyGene Revenue
ostOperationConDepreciatiRevenue Profit Gross
BreaksTax TaxesProfit Gross Profit Annual
m
FCI
i j
ElectNewijt
i j
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i j
ElectNewijt
*only new and electric plants are shown
Energy Generated must equal Demand
Model Constraints
Heatt
Heat
Heatt
Fuelt
Fuel
Fuelt
Electrict
Electric
Electrict
ndEnergyDema ratedTotalEnergyGene
ndEnergyDema ratedTotalEnergyGene
ndEnergyDema ratedTotalEnergyGene
Net CO2 Emission must be reduced by a preset limit
Model Constraints
tHeat
Heatt
Fuel
Fuelt
Elect
Electt LimitCO EmissionNetCOEmissionNetCOEmissionNetCO )2(222
Fuelt
,Fuelt
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Electt
,Electt
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Fuelt
,,Electrict
Fuelt
Fuelt
Fuelt
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Electrict
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dCO2ProducedCO2ProduceCO2Removed
dCO2ProducedCO2ProduceCO2Removed
ˆˆ dCO2Produce
ˆˆ dCO2Produce
CO2Removed-dCO2Produce sionNetCO2Emis
CO2Removed-dCO2Produce sionNetCO2Emis
FuelNewijt
Fuelijt
ElectNewijt
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New,Fuelijt
Fuelt
Electijt
Fuelijt
Electt
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PEγPEγ
PEPE
Energy Generated must be less than capacity
Model Constraints
SoybeanSoybean
sSwitchgrassSwitchgras
Heatijt
Heatijt
Fuelijt
Fuelijt
Electricij
Electricijt
itAnnual Lim BitAnnual LimB
CE
CB
CE
ˆ ˆ
ˆˆ
ˆˆ
ˆˆ
Job Creation in Salary must increase by a preset limit
Model Constraints
i
Fuelt
i
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i
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i
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i
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i
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i
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i
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OperationonConstructi NewSalary
OperationonConstructi NewSalary
imitNewSalaryL NewSalary NewSalary
Annual profits from new plants and refineries must exceed a set ROI.
Model Constraints
tElect New,
ijtElect New,
ijFuel New,
t
tElect New,
ijtElect New,
ijElect New,
t
)()(Profit) (Annual
)()(Profit) (Annual
t i j
t i j
FCIROI
FCIROI
Operation Cost Electricity Industry Transportation Fuel Natural Gas Heating CO2 Reduction Job Salary Profitability
3200 Lines of Codes ~ 2 min to run
GAMS Code Model
GAMS Code (Fuel Model)
GAMS Code (Profitability)
GAMS Code (Fuel Model)GAMS Code (Fuel Model)
Pareto-optimal Boundary
0.0
%
0.2
%
0.4
%
0.6
%
0.8
%
1.0
%
1.2
%
1.4
%
1.6
%
1.8
%
2.0
%
2.2
%
57.0
58.0
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
0.0%0.2%
0.4%0.6%
0.8%1.0%
1.2%1.4%
1.6%1.8%
2.0%
NPV vs CO2 vs Salary
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%
Minimum CO2 Emission Annual Percent Reduction
Net
Pre
sent
Valu
e (
Billions D
ollars
)
Minimum Job Salary Creation Annual Percent Increase - ROI at 10%
- Tax break at 10% _of gross profit- Avg Electricity _Price at $0.10/KWh
0.0
%
0.2
%
0.4
%
0.6
%
0.8
%
1.0
%
1.2
%
1.4
%
1.6
%
1.8
%
2.0
%
2.2
%
57.0
58.0
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
0.0%0.2%
0.4%0.6%
0.8%1.0%
1.2%1.4%
1.6%1.8%
2.0%
NPV vs CO2 vs Salary
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%
Minimum CO2 Emission Annual Percent Reduction
Net
Pre
sent
Valu
e (
Billions D
ollars
)
Minimum Job Salary Creation Annual Percent Increase - ROI at 10%
- Tax break at 10% _of gross profit- Avg Electricity _Price at $0.10/KWh
This surface represent the maximum NPV possible at a certain CO2 limit and Job creation for all industries combined.
Pareto-optimal
Boundary
0.0
%
0.2
%
0.4
%
0.6
%
0.8
%
1.0
%
1.2
%
1.4
%
1.6
%
1.8
%
2.0
%
2.2
%
57.0
58.0
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
0.0%0.2%
0.4%0.6%
0.8%1.0%
1.2%1.4%
1.6%1.8%
2.0%
NPV vs CO2 vs Salary
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%
Minimum CO2 Emission Annual Percent Reduction
Net
Pre
sent
Valu
e (
Billions D
ollars
)
Minimum Job Salary Creation Annual Percent Increase - ROI at 10%
- Tax break at 10% _of gross profit- Avg Electricity _Price at $0.10/KWh
Job salary creation has a minor effect on NPV CO2 reduction has a major effect on NPV After 2% CO2 reduction, more carbon capture technology is used. - Primary reason for the steeper slope
Pareto-optimal
Boundary
Minimum Retail Electricity Price
*Jobs at 1%
Tax Breaks (percent of profit)
CO2 ROI 0% 10% 20% 30%
0.0% 2.5% N/A $ 0.05 $ 0.05 $ 0.05
0.0% 5.0% N/A $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.06
0.0% 7.5% N/A $ 0.09 $ 0.08 $ 0.08
0.0% 10.0% N/A $ 0.10 $ 0.09 $ 0.09
1.0% 2.5% N/A $ 0.06 $ 0.06 $ 0.06
1.0% 5.0% N/A $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.06
1.0% 7.5% N/A $ 0.09 $ 0.08 $ 0.08
1.0% 10.0% N/A $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.09
2.0% 2.5% N/A $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.07
2.0% 5.0% N/A $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.07
2.0% 7.5% N/A $ 0.09 $ 0.08 $ 0.08
2.0% 10.0% N/A $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.09
Minimum Retail Electricity Price
*Jobs at 1%
This table shows the minimum average electricity price _require to make a profit.
Investors will not invests in new plants with no tax break
Tax Breaks (percent of profit) CO2 ROI 0% 10% 20% 30%0.0% 2.5% N/A $ 0.05 $ 0.05 $ 0.05
0.0% 5.0% N/A $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.06
0.0% 7.5% N/A $ 0.09 $ 0.08 $ 0.08
0.0% 10.0% N/A $ 0.10 $ 0.09 $ 0.09
1.0% 2.5% N/A $ 0.06 $ 0.06 $ 0.06
1.0% 5.0% N/A $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.06
1.0% 7.5% N/A $ 0.09 $ 0.08 $ 0.08
1.0% 10.0% N/A $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.09
2.0% 2.5% N/A $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.07
2.0% 5.0% N/A $ 0.07 $ 0.07 $ 0.07
2.0% 7.5% N/A $ 0.09 $ 0.08 $ 0.08
2.0% 10.0% N/A $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.09
4 Scenario will be presented:
Retail Price of Electricity at 10 cent/KWH ROI at 10%
Scenarios
CO2 Jobs Tax Breaks
S1 0% 0% 10%
S2 1% 1% 10%
S3 2.2% 2% 10%
S4 1% 1% 20%
New Wind and Hydro-plants
New hydro-plant capacity by scenario (MW)Plants 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020 2024 2025 2026 Total
0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
3 121 400 357 678
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
4 121 400 50 345 916
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
5 119 181 400 384 400 1484
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
5 180 357 376 119 50 1083
New Wind Capacity by scenario (MW)Plant
s 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2025 2026 Total0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
5 119 195 238 237 357 1147
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
5 119 305 253 440 500 1617
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
5 17 247 227 500 500 1492
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
5 119 119 119 457 457 1271
New Wind and Hydro-plants
New hydro-plant capacity by scenario (MW)
Plants 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020 2024 2025 2026 Total
0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
3 121 400 357 678
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
4 121 400 50 345 916
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
5 119 181 400 384 400 1484
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
5 180 357 376 119 50 1083
New Wind Capacity by scenario (MW)
Plants 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2025 2026 Total
0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
5 119 195 238 237 357 1147
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
5 119 305 253 440 500 1617
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
5 17 247 227 500 500 1492
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
5 119 119 119 457 457 1271
At low CO2 reduction and Job creation, wind plants are favored At high CO2 reduction and Job creation, either plants are favored equally At high CO2 reduction, plants should be built at a later time No biodiesel and ethanol refineries are built
New Plants and Refineries
0% CO2, 0% Jobs,
10% Tax Break
1% CO2, 1% Jobs,
10% Tax Break
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs,
10% Tax Break
1% CO2, 1% Jobs,
20% Tax Break
# of Wind Plant 5 farms 5 farms 5 farms 5 farms
Total Capacity 1147 MW 1617 MW 1492 MW 1271 MW
# of Hydroelectric 3 plants 4 plants 5 plants 5 plants
Total Capacity 678 MW 916 MW 1484 MW 1083 MW
Avg ROI 9.6% 10.1% 10.1% 10.2%
Std Deviation 2.0% 2.4% 2.7% 2.3%
New Plants and Refineries
For all four scenarios, a 10% annual ROI is possible with a standard deviation ranging from 2.0%-2.7%.
0% CO2, 0% Jobs,
10% Tax Break
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax
Break
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs,
10% Tax Break
1% CO2, 1% Jobs,
20% Tax Break# of Wind
Plant 5 farms 5 farms 5 farms 5 farms
Total Capacity 1147 MW 1617 MW 1492 MW 1271 MW
# of Hydroelectric 3 plants 4 plants 5 plants 5 plants
Total Capacity 678 MW 916 MW 1484 MW 1083 MW
Avg ROI 9.6% 10.1% 10.1% 10.2%
Std Deviation 2.0% 2.4% 2.7% 2.3%
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Operation Construction
New
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Operation Construction
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Operation Construction
New
Sala
ries (
mil
lio
ns)
New Salaries These graphs show the job creation represented by salary - Construction labor - Operation labor
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Operation Construction
New
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ries (
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Operation Construction
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Sala
ries (
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Operation Construction
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Sala
ries (
mil
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ns)
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Operation Construction
New
Sala
ries (
mil
lio
ns)
Low operation labor due to wind farms and hydroelectric plants - Require less people to operate compared to coal and natural gas
New Salaries
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2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Electric Fuel Natural Gas New Electric New Fuel
Cash
Flo
w (
bil
lio
ns)
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Electric Fuel Natural Gas New Electric New Fuel
Cash
Flo
w (
bil
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Electric Fuel Natural Gas New Electric New Fuel
Cash
Flo
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bil
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Electric Fuel Natural Gas New Electric New Fuel
Cash
Flo
w (
bil
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ns)
Annual Cash Flow
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Electric Fuel Natural Gas New Electric New Fuel
Cash
Flo
w (
bil
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ns)
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Electric Fuel Natural Gas New Electric New Fuel
Cash
Flo
w (
bil
lio
ns)
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Electric Fuel Natural Gas New Electric New Fuel
Cash
Flo
w (
bil
lio
ns)
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Electric Fuel Natural Gas New Electric New Fuel
Cash
Flo
w (
bil
lio
ns)
Higher CO2 reduction limit results in less profit for the electric industry - This is due to the cost of CO2 capture - Primarily from coal plants
Annual Cash Flow
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New Electric New Fuel
Dis
co
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ted
Cash
Flo
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mil
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ns)
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ted
Cash
Flo
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mil
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ns)
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Dis
co
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ted
Cash
Flo
w (
mil
lio
ns)
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New Electric New Fuel
Dis
counte
d C
ash F
low
(m
il-
lions)
Discounted Cash Flow at 8%
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co
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ted
Cash
Flo
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co
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ted
Cash
Flo
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ns)
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ted
Cash
Flo
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mil
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ns)
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New Electric New Fuel
Dis
counte
d C
ash F
low
(m
il-
lions)
Profit decreases as the CO2 limit and job creation increases
Result is similar for all scenarios under a 2% CO2 reduction
Larger then 2% reduction, the model chose to build plants later
- Compensate by using a lot more CCS
Discounted Cash
Flow at 8%
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Electric Industry Fuel Industry Natural Gas Industry
Net
CO
2 E
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on
s)
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Electric Industry Fuel Industry Natural Gas Industry
Net
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Electric Industry Fuel Industry Natural Gas Industry
Net
CO
2 E
mis
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Net CO2 Emission after CCS
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12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Electric Industry Fuel Industry Natural Gas Industry
Net
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n
(mil
lio
n t
on
s)
These tables include CO2 emissions from plants and refineries and from consumers
Majority of CO2 emissions from plants and refineries are from electric plants.
- Reduction is mostly from electric plants
Net CO2 Emission
after CCS
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Oil Biodiesel Ethanol
CO
2 R
em
oved
(m
illl
ion
to
ns)
20
25
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Oil Biodiesel Ethanol
CO
2 R
em
oved
(m
illl
ion
to
ns)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Oil Biodiesel Ethanol
CO
2 R
em
oved
(m
illl
ion
to
ns)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Oil Biodiesel Ethanol
CO
2 R
em
oved
(m
illl
ion
to
ns)
CO2 Emissions Captured with CCS
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Oil Biodiesel Ethanol
CO
2 R
em
oved
(m
illl
ion
to
ns)
20
25
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Oil Biodiesel Ethanol
CO
2 R
em
oved
(m
illl
ion
to
ns)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Oil Biodiesel Ethanol
CO
2 R
em
oved
(m
illl
ion
to
ns)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Oil Biodiesel Ethanol
CO
2 R
em
oved
(m
illl
ion
to
ns)
Use of CCS increases with the CO2 limit - Almost all from coal plants before 2% After 2% reduction, more CCS use from natural gas plants are done. Minor CCS usage from oil refineries
CO2 Emissions Captured with CCS
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Wind Hydroelectric
Gen
era
tio
n (
tho
usan
d M
W)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Wind Hydroelectric
Gen
era
tio
n
(th
ou
san
d M
W)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Wind Hydroelectric
Gen
era
tio
n (
tho
usan
d M
W)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Wind Hydroelectric
Gen
era
tio
n (
tho
usan
d M
W)
Electricity Generation
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Wind Hydroelectric
Gen
era
tio
n (
tho
usan
d M
W)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Wind Hydroelectric
Gen
era
tio
n
(th
ou
san
d M
W)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Wind Hydroelectric
Gen
era
tio
n (
tho
usan
d M
W)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Coal Natural Gas Wind Hydroelectric
Gen
era
tio
n (
tho
usan
d M
W)
No change in generation from coal and natural gas plants Generation from wind and hydroelectric plants shown to steadily increase - 24% wind by 2030 - 15% hydroelectric by 2030
Electricity
Generation
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
Gasoline Diesel BioDiesel Ethanol
Tra
nsp
ort
aio
n F
uel
(th
ou
san
d
bb
l/d
ay)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Gasoline Diesel BioDiesel Ethanol
Tra
nsp
ort
aio
n F
uel
(th
ou
san
d
bb
l/d
ay)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Gasoline Diesel BioDiesel Ethanol
Tra
nsp
ort
aio
n F
uel
(th
ou
san
d
bb
l/d
ay)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Gasoline Diesel BioDiesel Ethanol
Tra
nsp
ort
aio
n F
uel
(th
ou
san
d
bb
l/d
ay)
Transportation Fuel Production
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 20% Tax Break
Gasoline Diesel BioDiesel Ethanol
Tra
nsp
ort
aio
n F
uel
(th
ou
san
d
bb
l/d
ay)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
0% CO2, 0% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Gasoline Diesel BioDiesel Ethanol
Tra
nsp
ort
aio
n F
uel
(th
ou
san
d
bb
l/d
ay)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
1% CO2, 1% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Gasoline Diesel BioDiesel Ethanol
Tra
nsp
ort
aio
n F
uel
(th
ou
san
d
bb
l/d
ay)
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
2.2% CO2, 2% Jobs, 10% Tax Break
Gasoline Diesel BioDiesel Ethanol
Tra
nsp
ort
aio
n F
uel
(th
ou
san
d
bb
l/d
ay)
Transportation fuel industry is shown to remain virtually unchanged
Transportation Fuel
Production
Any Questions?