energy outlookfor Asia and the pacific

october 2013

Energy Outlookfor Asia and the Pacific

October 2013

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)

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Asian Development Bank. Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific.Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2015.

1. Energy.2. Asia and the Pacific.I. Asian Development Bank.

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Note: In this publication, $ refers to US dollars.

In this report, the term Taipei City refers to the urban area centered on the City of Taipei or Taipei,China.

ADB recognizes Kyrgyzstan as the Kyrgyz Republic and Laos as the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic.

Unless otherwise stated, boxes, figures and tables without explicit sources were prepared by the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre.

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Preface viAcknowledgments viiAbbreviations viiiDefinitions ixExecutive Summary x

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

Chapter 2 Energy Demand and Supply Outlook: Business-as-Usual Case 132.1 Main Assumptions 142.2 Primary Energy Demand by Type 182.3 Primary Energy Demand by Region 232.4 Energy Intensity 262.5 Energy Production and Imports 28

Chapter 3 Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook: Business-as-Usual Case 373.1 Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook 383.2 Industry Sector 403.3 Transport Sector 453.4 Other Sectors 52

Chapter 4 Energy Demand and Supply Outlook: Alternative Case 634.1 Primary Energy Demand: Savings Potential by Source 644.2 Primary Energy Demand: Savings Potential by Region 664.3 Primary Energy Demand: Savings Potential by Sector 664.4 Industry Energy Savings Potential 694.5 Transport Energy Savings Potential 724.6 Residential and Commercial Energy Savings Potential 76

Chapter 5 Electricity Outlook 815.1 Electricity Demand 825.2 Electricity Generation 835.3 Comparison of the Business-as-Usual and Alternative Cases 86

Chapter 6 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Outlook 916.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 926.2 Carbon Dioxide Intensity 946.3 Carbon Dioxide Per Capita 946.4 Comparison of the Business-as-Usual and Alternative Cases 96

Chapter 7 Energy Investment Outlook 1017.1 Energy Investment Outlook: Business-as-Usual Case 1027.2 Energy Investment Outlook: Alternative Case 1067.3 Financing Implications 110

Chapter 8 Central and West Asia 1118.1 Afghanistan 1148.2 Armenia 120

Contents

iv Contents

8.3 Azerbaijan 1278.4 Georgia 1338.5 Kazakhstan 1398.6 Kyrgyz Republic 1468.7 Pakistan 1528.8 Tajikistan 1598.9 Turkmenistan 1668.10 Uzbekistan 172

Chapter 9 East Asia 1799.1 Peoples Republic of China 1829.2 Hong Kong, China 1909.3 Republic of Korea 1969.4 Mongolia 2029.5 Taipei,China 209

Chapter 10 The Pacific 21710.1 Fiji 22010.2 Papua New Guinea 22610.3 Timor-Leste 23210.4 Other Pacific Islands 238

Chapter 11 South Asia 24511.1 Bangladesh 24811.2 Bhutan 25511.3 India 26111.4 Maldives 26811.5 Nepal 27411.6 Sri Lanka 280

Chapter 12 Southeast Asia 28712.1 Brunei Darussalam 29012.2 Cambodia 29712.3 Indonesia 30412.4 Lao Peoples Democratic Republic 31112.5 Malaysia 31712.6 Myanmar 32312.7 Philippines 33012.8 Singapore 33612.9 Thailand 34212.10 Viet Nam 349

Chapter 13 Developed Group 35713.1 Australia 36013.2 Japan 36613.3 New Zealand 373

Appendix 1 Historical Performance 381

Appendix 2 Outlook Cases 429

General References 522

Contents v

Boxes2.1 Electricity Import and Export within the Association of Southeast

Asian Nations Member States for Regional Cooperation 162.2 North American Shale Gas Development and Impacts on Asia 222.3 Prospects for Electrification in Asia 252.4 Fuel Subsidies 282.5 Energy Supply from Central and West Asia 333.1 Challenges for Biofuels in Asia 393.2 Energy Efficiency and Conservation in Asia and the Pacific 423.3 Low-Carbon City 503.4 Mass Rapid TransitPotential for Energy Savings and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction 553.5 Renewable Energy 573.6 Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage in Developing Members of Asia and the Pacific 593.7 Advanced Power Generation Technologies and Challenges in Deployment 60

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Preface

T he Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific aims to support ADB energy sector operations by providing stakeholders with an energy outlook for the region up to the year 2035. It attempts to identify policy, social, infrastructure, and technology issues that must be addressed to meet future energy need of ADB members in Asia and the Pacific.

The first edition of the Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific, which provided an energy supply and demand outlook for the region up to 2030, was published by ADB in 2009. Since then however, there have been various developments affecting the energy sectors of both developed and developing economies that justify this update, including (i) the lasting economic recession in major developed energy-consuming countries and its impact on other parts of the world, (ii) geopolitical and social unrest in the Middle East and Africa, (iii) repercussions of the Fukushima nuclear incident on nuclear energy development programs, (iv) aging energy infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific, and (v) expansion in renewable energy development and energy efficiency improvements within the region.

In contrast to other energy outlooks that deal solely with whole regions, this report also focuses on the local characteristics of the ADB members in Asia and the Pacific, with the intention of providing critical and strategic insights into the energy sector of individual ADB members. This report presents two cases of energy demand and supply for the ADB member economies in Asia and the Pacific: (i) a business-as-usual case, which reflects the impact of existing policies and current technology levels on future energy demand and energy choice, as well as assumes that current trends in the development of new and renewable energy sources will continue into the future; and (ii) an alternative case that considers the potential for energy savings on both the demand and the supply sides from the deployment of advanced and low-carbon technologies to increase energy security in the region. The study also presents the results of analyses made to estimate carbon dioxide emissions and investments required on the supply and demand sides for both the business-as-usual and the alternative cases. Also identified and discussed are major issues that are likely to affect the energy demand and supply in Asia and the Pacific, including electricity trade among members of the Association of Southeast As