european energy outlook
DESCRIPTION
Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and oil & gas industriesTRANSCRIPT
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
4th Annual EPiCentre Conference
April 26th, 2012
European Energy Outlook Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and oil & gas industries
Colette Lewiner
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and
oil & gas industries
Recent events in the oil & gas industry
The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident
A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle
Energy mix evolutions
2
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Global demand for oil has increased in 2011
World oil demand increased in 2011 by 0.88 million
barrels per day (mbpd), i.e. +1.01% (to 87.82 mbpd)
compared with 2010 (86.94 mbpd)
According to the latest OPEC projections*, worldwide
oil consumption is expected to increase by 0.98% in
2012 (to 88.63 mbdp)
3
„000 b/d „000 b/d
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – March 2012
Quarterly world oil demand growth
World oil demand outlook
Source: World Oil Outlook 2011, OPEC
Primary factors driving demand are economic growth and increased requirements in the developing world
Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt and Iran… political situation may place global production and transportation at risk
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
mbpdmbpd
Other transition economies
Russia
OPEC
China
Southeast Asia
South Asia
Middle East & Africa
Latin America
OECD Pacific
Western Europe
North America
World (right axis)
*OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Monthly Oil Market Report, March 2012
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Source: France inflation
The rising political tensions in Iran are particularly worrying
for global oil supply
4
After China, the EU is the largest importer of Iranian oil
(about 20%)
In response to the Iran’s nuclear program negotiations failure,
the US and Europe decided sanctions against Iran, who, in
return, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz:
• Strengthening of the US military presence in the Gulf
• Oil embargo from the EU (due to start in July) which should hit
450,000 to 550,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil exports
But Iran banned crude oil supply to France, the UK and
the EU right away
In addition, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India could
reduce their purchases (up to 250,000 bl/d). In total, between
25% and 35% of Iran‟s oil exports could be impacted
However, Saudi Arabia is increasing significantly its
production to curb price
Sourc
e: F
inancia
l T
imes
35%
of all seaborne traded oil
20%
of oil traded worldwide
14 crude oil tankers
Almost 17 million barrels
Average daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz (2011)
However, economic slowdown combined with Saudi Arabia extra-supply could lead to a market shift
Crude oil spot – Brent in US dollars and in Euros
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
High crude prices open the door to more technological
resources
5
For the first time in 2011,
average oil prices
exceeded $100/bl
Brent crude is forecasted at
$117/bl in 2012 and $123/bl
in 2014*
Giant discoveries over
2000-2010 were
concentrated on six themes:
• Grabens and rifts
• Pre-salt carbonates
• Large deltas
• Abrupt margins
• Foothills and mountain
belts
• Unconventional
Significant resources are yet to be produced but this requires advanced technology and large scale investments
Source: IEA, CERA, Total
Break even oil price in 2010 (Internal Rate of Return > 10%)
Average oil prices
Source: Focus Gaz, February 17, 2012
* Estimation Deutsche Bank, January 2012
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
More complex projects and higher environmental challenges,
in high-potential segments
6
Recent accidents (Macondo, Elgin) are highlighting the need for safer oil & gas development
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
BP‟s Deepwater Horizon wellhead blowout
Largest accidental marine oil spill in the history of the
petroleum industry so far
11 people killed on the platform and 17 others injured
Unabated spill for three months: about 4.9 million
barrels of crude oil released
BP has estimated the 85-day spill cost to $40 billion,
including response and compensation
BP's share price lost 30% since the accident
High profile accidents are raising concerns and costs
7
April 20, 2010 Macondo blowout March 25, 2012 Elgin gas leak
Deep offshore oil and gas exploration and production is a risky business as all industrials activities
North Sea Elgin platform is operated by Total
“A well control problem" occurred on the wellhead
platform
Nearly 240 workers evacuated
Leak of 200,000 cubic meters of gas per day and
some 5-9 t/day of condensate into the North Sea
creating a risk of explosion
The accident is costing around $2.5 million a day in a
combination of lost production and containment efforts
Total is trying to set up a “top kill” operation to stop the
gas leak and is also proceeding with a separate plan to
drill two relief wells to divert the flowing gas
Total‟s share price lost 7% immediately after the
accident
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
One industry response to Macondo accident – MWCC
Background:
On April 20, 2010, the semi-submersible exploratory offshore rig
Deepwater Horizon exploded after a blowout, killing 11 people and
leaving the Macondo field in the Gulf of Mexico flowing with uncapped oil
of up to 60,000 barrels a day – as a result, all drilling in the Gulf of Mexico
was stopped
Drilling will only resume once companies set up containment plans (both
technological and strategic) to prove that they can respond effectively for
a potential future disaster
8
Company Description:
The Marine Well Containment Company (MWCC) is an industry-funded
consortium committed to improving capabilities for containing a potential
future underwater blowout in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico
The technology (one component pictured) is an advanced, rapid-
response system that will significantly exceed current Gulf response
capabilities
The system will be flexible, adaptable and able to begin mobilization
within 24 hours of a spill, and it would be operational within weeks
While technology is being constructed, the company is also building on
industry lessons learned from the recent Gulf incident and is securing
existing capture equipment for near-term use, should it be needed
MWCC is part of multiple industry efforts to improve prevention, well
intervention and spill response
MWCC
additional companies
can become
members
MWCC members as of April 2012
Source: MWCC
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Marine Well Containment System (2012)
9
Functionality:
Containment capability of up to 100,000 barrels per day with
potential for expansion - well beyond the size and scope of the
Deepwater Horizon incident
The system will include specially designed subsea and surface
equipment to fully contain the oil with no flow to the sea
A newly designed and fabricated subsea containment assembly
(SCA) will create a permanent connection and seal to prevent oil
from escaping into the ocean
Increasing current well containment capabilities in the Gulf, it will
be compatible with a wide range of well designs and equipment,
oil and natural gas flow rates and weather conditions
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
10
Capgemini’s Emergency Preparedness and Response
Assessment offer to MWCC
Support the launch of MWCC to help launch this new venture on behalf of ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhilips and
BP – this includes:
Define the business strategy
Define the long-term financial picture
Design all Operations & Maintenance processes and procedures around developing, maintaining and deploying the equipment
Establish the high-level organizational structure, governance, roles, and responsibilities
Establish core back-office capabilities in Finance & Accounting, HR and IT
Set-up the physical business office for Day 1 (functions, facilities, infrastructure)
Support the development of the steady state company across all functions to be sized according to the scope and scale of the organization (30-50 people) plus transition
• 50,000 people are back to work in the region
• Unleash > $10,000,000,000 in delayed investment
• Companies who join MWCC receive the containment technology, operations, and services for prompt disaster relief
• Through this project, we are helping 5 of the 15 largest companies in the world get back to work in one of the most critical regions of their business
Capgemini‟s role MWCC / Industry Benefits
Ultimately, we are building this industry-changing corporation: from devising the corporate vision and mission with the CEO to procuring coveralls and protective eyewear
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Key stakeholders in the emergency logistics have usually the following set of requirements which influence the setup of the Logistic and Emergency Response Centre (LERC):
• Stability
• Quality
• Flexibility
• Responsiveness
• Availability
To setup an effective and efficient LERC, the following key areas and critical questions in relation to the phases in emergency management (Prevention, Preparedness, Response, Recovery) have to be addressed:
1. Vision and objectives
The role and objectives of LERC in various LERC operation modes
2. Organisation
Centralised vs. Decentralised position and impact on other operation centres
Resource utilisation in different operation modes
3. Governance
Roles & Responsibilities
Responsibility division between stakeholders and across the interfaces
4. Process and routines
Operation mode specific process and routines
Process coupling across the stakeholder interfaces
5. Systems and architecture
Demand on the IT infrastructure and information transparency
Focus areas and key questions to be addressed
Platform and processing operations
3. Response
4. Recovery 1. Prevention
2. Preparedness
Logistics Emergency Response Centre
SWRCP
Field Operating Centres
Environmental associations
Internal units External suppliers
24/7 Logistic & Emergency Response Center for a large oil &
gas operator
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and
oil & gas industries
Recent events in the oil & gas industry
The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident
A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle
Energy mix evolutions
12
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Fukushima accident first safety lessons learned
Exceptional circumstances: 9.0-magnitude undersea
earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011
triggering a tsunami that travelled up to 10 km inland.
Fukushima nuclear plant: 6 boiling water reactors
(BWR) maintained by TEPCO have been hit by the
earthquake and tsunami:
• Reactors 4, 5 and 6 were shut down prior to the earthquake
for maintenance.
• Remaining reactors shut down automatically after the
earthquake. Grid electricity supply for cooling purposes
collapsed and then the tsunami flooded the plant, knocking
out emergency generators.
• 20 km radius evacuation around the plant from March 12
Highest rating (level 7) on the International Nuclear
Event Scale. Second level 7 rating in history, following
Chernobyl
However, experts estimate that radiation health effects
should be “very minimal” for both the public and
workers*
Need to design plant infrastructures for really exceptional
earthquakes and tsunamis
Simultaneous natural catastrophes have to be taken into
account
Spent fuel storage and management policy to be
rethought
Emergency measures to be revisited
Cooling systems redundancy to be re-assessed
Radiological permanent control on the site and around
Crisis management and crisis communication to be re-
designed
Nuclear bodies and governance
13
Nuclear operators need to be prepared for beyond-design-basis external events and
improve emergency preparedness and communication (to restore public trust in
nuclear energy)
The accident First safety lessons learned
* Kathryn Higley, professor of radiation health physics in the department of nuclear engineering at Oregon University (US)
and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA)
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Switzerland
Brazil
Czech Republic
Finland
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
Vietnam
South Africa
Germany
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Canada
Ukraine
United Kingdom
South Korea
France
Japan
India
Russia
USA
China MWe
Operable
Under construction
Planned
Proposed
The safety inspections launched on existing plants should
lead to additional investments
14
Source: World Nuclear Association
Overview of existing nuclear plants and project capacities (as of April 2012)
*IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011
The vast majority of new constructions and existing plants in operation should continue with
some delays and more safety focus. The IEA* forecasts that nuclear output will rise by
more than 70% over the period to 2035
Safety tests aim to assess:
• Plants’ resistance to simultaneous and exceptional
catastrophes (flooding and earthquakes)
• On site emergency preparedness and information
• Radiation protection of people and the environment
• And in Japan, change of governance around nuclear
safety questions
The “stress tests” reports released by all 14 EU
nuclearized Member States national nuclear regulators
do not require any plant closure
Outside Europe, nuclear stress tests are also on-going:
• China: 34 reactors passed the safety checks of which 26
are being built. On-going R&D projects to improve
emergency response mechanisms in case of extreme
disasters (to be completed around 2013). Approval for
new projects is suspended until the release of a new
Nuclear Safety Plan (expected by mid-2012). New
projects should resume at a pace of three or four per
year (slower growth than before Fukushima accident).
• US: The nuclear regulator (NRC) stated that “every plant
has the capability to effectively cool down reactor cores
and spent fuel pools following extreme events”
• Japan: no closure of nuclear plants is required by
central safety authority. However, for local acceptance
questions, only one reactor out of 54 is still in operation
Additional CAPEX and OPEX will push nuclear
electricity costs up. Nevertheless, nuclear energy stays
competitive
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Following Fukushima accident, the French nuclear safety
authority has asked for additional safety evaluations
15
1
2
The six evaluation
domains asked by
the French nuclear
safety authority:
• Earthquake
• Flooding
• Cooling supply
disruption
• Power supply
disruption
• Major accidents
management
• Contractors
management
Re-evaluation of existing human and technical resources against the
current framework
Analysis to take into account events that may occur beyond the current framework
and if needed, implementation of complementary resources
The additional safety evaluations were run in a 2 steps approach
Source: EDF
The safety evaluations concluded that: •All 58 French reactors are compliant with current
safety levels •Complementary measures are needed in case of
exceptional and simultaneous natural disasters
Map of French nuclear reactors
Source: EDF
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
EDF decided to strengthen its crisis organization and
associated human and technical resources
16
Strengthen on-site competencies
Organization and procedures optimization
• Training and learning programs
Nuclear Rapid Action Force
Local resources of crisis management: combination
of national and regional resources
Plug and play cooling and power supply
connection
Local crisis center
• Dedicated premises for crisis management, more robust
and better dimensioned to manage an accident impacting
an entire site for a long period
These measures will increase the already good safety level of French nuclear reactors
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
EDF’s Nuclear Rapid Action Force
17
After Fukushima nuclear accident, EDF decided to set up a special unit (FARN
in French for Force d’Action Rapide Nucléaire) to be deployed to help any
French nuclear power plant site in case of a major nuclear accident:
• Dedicated human and material resources:
• Around 100 EDF “on-call” employees
• Equipment to provide emergency cooling and power supply to prevent core melt
• Operational in less than 24 hours and 24/7
• As a support to complement local teams
• FARN is designed to cope with accidents affecting two reactors at one site
by 2013 and four reactors simultaneously in 2014.
• FARN will comprise one national team and four regional teams based at
EDF's Civaux, Dampierre, Bugey and Paluel sites
• In October 2011, a crisis exercise was held in Cruas-Meysse plant with the
objective to test the warning system and the crisis organization to be deployed
by the public authorities and EDF
• The Emergency Response Task Force is planned to be implemented by
mid-October 2012 (finalized by end 2014)
• EDF estimates a €250 million investment to set up the FARN. Then, the annual
operating budget is forecasted to range between €50 and €100 million.
Capgemini Consulting is supporting EDF in designing
and implementing the Nuclear Rapid Action Force
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and
oil & gas industries
Recent events in the oil & gas industry
The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident
A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle
Energy mix evolutions
18
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
How to manage the long lifecycle of oil & gas platforms and
nuclear plants
19
Oil exploration and production is a long lifecycle activity
Source: Total
4-10
years
1-7
years
10-30
years
~1
year
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Nuclear power plant lifecycle spans over 70 years
20
Asset lifecycle management is a key challenge in both oil exploration and production and nuclear energy industries
Source: TVO
6-7
years
~1
year
40-60
year
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Nuclear lifetime extension requests will be scrutinized
21
IE
NL
CH
SE
DK
NO
FI
EE
LT
LV
PL
SK
RO SI
UK
PT
ES IT
GR
FR
BE
HU
DE
AT
BG
CZ LU
Overview of the nuclear plants lifetime extension in Europe before the accident
Since the Fukushima accident, Asco 1&2 in Spain and Fessenheim in France (under conditions) lifetime extensions have been accepted by the nuclear regulators
SE: Oskarshamn 3 (operating since 1985) uprating is to be finalized by 2013, extending its lifetime to 60 years (approved in 2010). Plans to uprate Oskarshamn 2 and extend its life to 60 years
HU: The 4 Paks reactors are licensed to 2012-17. 20-year life extension submitted. The application for the extension of the operating license of the first unit is due to be submitted to the HAEA before the end of 2011
CZ: 2009: +10 years (to 40 years) for the 4 Dukovany’s reactors (CEZ) operating since 1985-87). Further extension to 60 years is under consideration
FI: Mid 2007, +20 years for Fortum's 2 reactors at Loviisa, (to 2027 and 2030), subject to safety evaluation in 2015 and 2023. TVO's Olkiluoto 1&2 started up in 1978-80; lifetime extended to 60 years, subject to safety evaluation every decade. Expected shutdown in 2039 and 2042
SK: Upgrade program on the Bohunice units operating since 1984-85 held from 2005 to 2008 by Slovenské Elektrárne, with a 40-year life extension in view (to 2025)
UK: The last 3 Magnox reactors are due to shut down by the end of 2012, after life extensions of 9 months to 2 years. 5-year extension for Hinkley Point B and Hunterston B (to 2016) obtained in 2007 and for Hartlepool and Heysham 1 (to 2019) obtained in 2010. 10-year extension for Dungeness B (to 2018) obtained in 2005. Plant Lifetime Extension (PLEX) program could enable life extension of all other AGR plants by 5 years in average and Sizewell B (PWR) by 20 years
BE: October 2009: introduction of a nuclear tax of €250 million/year till the end of lifetime. December 2011: according to the nuclear safety agency, FANC, the three oldest reactors (Doel 1&2 and Tihange), would be able to safely continue beyond 2015. But political uncertainty remains: a decision was taken in autumn 2011 to phase out nuclear progressively between 2015 and 2025.
18
10
4
6 4
4
1
2
5
7
BG: Kozloduy 5&6 units are licensed to 2017 and 2019, with plans to extend their life to 50 years
2 SI/CR: 20-year life extension (to 2043) requested for Krško operated by Slovenia and Croatia
1
FR: In July 2009 the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) approved EDF's safety case for 40-year operation of the 34 existing 900 MWe units. In July 2010, EDF said that it was assessing the prospect of 60-year lifetimes for all its existing reactors.
58
Nuclearized countries Number of reactors in operation 5
NL: 2006: Life extension to 2033 for the only plant (Borssele, 485 MWe)
ES: 4-year life extension for the Santa Maria de Garona plant to 2013 obtained in 2009, should be further prolonged. Almarez 1&2 and Vandellos 2 were granted 10-year life extension for (to 2020) in 2010. In February 2011, the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) recommended a 10-year extension for Cofrentes, and did the same for Asco 1&2 in July 2011. In February 2011, parliament removed a legal provision limiting nuclear plant operating lives to 40 years
8
DE: In September 2010, the government agreed to give 8-year licence extensions for reactors built before 1980 (i.e. to 40 years), and 14-year extensions for later ones (i.e. to 46 years). Operators to pay a “fuel element tax” totaling €2.3 billion/year for 6 years and an “eco-tax” of about €15 billion. All these arrangements were thrown into doubt when in March 2011 the government decided to phase out nuclear energy by 2022, starting with the immediate shut-down of 8 plants.
9
Sourc
e: W
orld
Nucle
ar
Associa
tio
n –
Capgem
ini analy
sis
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
22
Asset Life Cycle Management: software packages
seamlessly managing construction, operations and
maintenance
Back Office functionalities
“Engineering functionalities”
Product Data Management
Operation Maintenance
PDM
CAD
Finance
Project Management
HR
Product Life Cycle
Management PLM
1980
1990
2000
2010
“Life Cycle Management Functions”
“Operation and Maintenance Functions”
CMMS
EAM
EDM
Content
ALM
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
EDF – information system upgrade dedicated to its
nuclear generation fleet maintenance
23
EDF‟s nuclear reactors maintenance applications upgrade project is called SDIN (Système
d’Information du Nucléaire, i.e. Nuclear IT system) and is defined based on Industry Standards
Solution:
• Corporate Asset Management (EAM) software for plant operation
• Document control software (ECM) for documentation
• Service-oriented architecture (SOA)
• The project aims to integrate these packages within a National Nuclear Information System supporting an
upgraded Engineering and Operation operating model
The project will support improvement in the areas of:
• Nuclear safety and radiation protection
• Availability of the Nuclear Power Plant
• Operating cost management
• Plant lifetime extension beyond 40 years
• EPR New Plant Commissioning and Operation
• The SDIN is also a support for EDF business projects linked to deployment of world operation’s standards
AP913 and AP928
EDF‟s nuclear capacities utilization rate (“kd”) improved from 78% in 2009 to 80.7% in 2011. EDF targets a kd around 85% by 2015
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Business Functions covered by SDIN Project
Finance, Supply Chain
Human Resources
Business Model scope
Documents In Operation system engineering
SDIN Project scope
Operation & Maintenance
Spare Parts Catalog
Tools, Measurements
Business Indicators &
Reports
Resources &qualifications
Return On Experience
Plant Operation
Scope
Capgemini has built the Enterprise Asset Management system using Ventyx software for the 58 French nuclear reactors. This system is to be deployed progressively in all 19 sites
Portal
& CAD tools
Outage Planning
Radio- protection
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and
oil & gas industries
Recent events in the oil & gas industry
The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident
A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle
Energy mix evolutions
25
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
The gas paradigm is changing
In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas consumption is increased. Main
assumptions are:
• China ambitious policy for gas use
• Increased power plants‟ consumption linked to lower nuclear energy
• Sustained low gas price
However, CO2 emissions lead to a high +3.5°C temperature
increase instead of an acceptable +2°C
26
* GAS: Golden Age of Gas, IEA WEO 2011
World primary natural gas demand by
sector and scenario
Source: World Energy Outlook 2011: Golden Age of Gas Report
Source: EIA
Global unconventional natural gas resources (tcm)
NO: 2,324
FR: 5,040
PL: 5,236
SE: 1,148
FR: 5,040 Largest EU technically recoverable shale gas resources (bcm)
Shale gas changes the gas perspective:
• It increases the total gas resources to 250 years of
consumption • It is widely distributed
• It is cheap ($2/Mbtu in the US) • It allows to repatriate gas
consuming industries as chemicals and to fight against
deindustrialization
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Gro
wth
(%
)
Electricity production (TWh)
Solar PV
Growth (abs.)Capacity Growth (%)
DE
IT
CZ
SK
FR
SI
DE
CZ
FR
2005
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Top 3 countries ranked by:
Capacity installed* Growth** (absolute)
2. ES
1. DE
3. IT
2. FR
1. SK
3. SI
* Volume for wind, small hydro, geothermal and solar PV in MW and for biogas and biomass in TWh
** Relative growth additionally displayed for solar PV and wind
Wind
Growth (abs.)Capacity Growth (%)
DE
ES
IT
ES
DE
FR
RO
BG
PL
Biomass
DE
FI
SE
PL
SE
NL
+
2005 2006
2007 2008 2009
2010
2009
Renewable energies have continued their quick development.
For how long?
27
A stable governmental policy is key for renewables development. The eurozone sovereign debt issues should
lead to subsidies decreases and threaten the EU 2020 objective achievement
Source: Eur’Observer barometers – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13
Growth rate of renewable energy sources As of May 2011, 10% of the European
generation plants under construction
are from renewable energy sources (vs.
7% in 2009)
In 2011, despite a drop of the new EU
wind installed capacity due to the
financial crisis and tougher regulations,
wind power covered over 5% of EU‟s
consumption (172 TWh)
Many governments have or are launching
large offshore wind programs
• September 2010: 300 MW offshore wind
farm inaugurated in the UK
• France: part of the 3,000 MW tender
awarded to 2 consortiums in April 2012
(one led by EDF for 1,400 MW and one
led by Iberdrola for 500 MW)
• North Sea: 400 MW (Germany) and 325
MW (Belgium) under construction
• Nuclear phase out in Germany should
boost wind power but creates issues on
the grid
Despite the solar PV growth in 2011
globally (+44%), many solar companies
went bust because of China competition
In 2011, renewable energy investment
rose 5% to US$260 billion* globally
(solar energy: +36%) *Bloomberg New Energy Finance
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BE BG CH CZ DE ES FI FR UK HU IT LT NL PL RO SE SI SK
Solar + Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Other fossil
Gas
Lignite + Coal
Nuclear
2010 mix: lef t-hand side bar
2025 mix: right-hand side bar
Energy mix should evolve to more gas and renewables
28
2010 and 2025 electricity mix (as of June 2011)
The energy mix evolution could result in: • Higher costs (renewables development)
• Higher temperature increase (more fossil fuels) • Lower energy independency
Sourc
e: E
NT
SO
-E –
Capgem
ini analy
sis
and e
stim
atio
ns, E
EM
O1
3
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
With around 120,000 people in 40 countries, Capgemini is one of the world's foremost providers of
consulting, technology and outsourcing services. The Group reported 2011 global revenues of EUR 9.7
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With EUR 670 million revenue in 2011 and 8,400 dedicated consultants engaged in Utilities projects
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industry.
More information is available at www.capgemini.com/energy.
Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini
Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini
About Capgemini
29
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