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| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector 4 th Annual EPiCentre Conference April 26 th , 2012 European Energy Outlook Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and oil & gas industries Colette Lewiner

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Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and oil & gas industries

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Page 1: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

4th Annual EPiCentre Conference

April 26th, 2012

European Energy Outlook Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and oil & gas industries

Colette Lewiner

Page 2: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and

oil & gas industries

Recent events in the oil & gas industry

The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident

A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle

Energy mix evolutions

2

Page 3: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Global demand for oil has increased in 2011

World oil demand increased in 2011 by 0.88 million

barrels per day (mbpd), i.e. +1.01% (to 87.82 mbpd)

compared with 2010 (86.94 mbpd)

According to the latest OPEC projections*, worldwide

oil consumption is expected to increase by 0.98% in

2012 (to 88.63 mbdp)

3

„000 b/d „000 b/d

Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – March 2012

Quarterly world oil demand growth

World oil demand outlook

Source: World Oil Outlook 2011, OPEC

Primary factors driving demand are economic growth and increased requirements in the developing world

Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt and Iran… political situation may place global production and transportation at risk

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mbpdmbpd

Other transition economies

Russia

OPEC

China

Southeast Asia

South Asia

Middle East & Africa

Latin America

OECD Pacific

Western Europe

North America

World (right axis)

*OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Monthly Oil Market Report, March 2012

Page 4: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Source: France inflation

The rising political tensions in Iran are particularly worrying

for global oil supply

4

After China, the EU is the largest importer of Iranian oil

(about 20%)

In response to the Iran’s nuclear program negotiations failure,

the US and Europe decided sanctions against Iran, who, in

return, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz:

• Strengthening of the US military presence in the Gulf

• Oil embargo from the EU (due to start in July) which should hit

450,000 to 550,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil exports

But Iran banned crude oil supply to France, the UK and

the EU right away

In addition, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India could

reduce their purchases (up to 250,000 bl/d). In total, between

25% and 35% of Iran‟s oil exports could be impacted

However, Saudi Arabia is increasing significantly its

production to curb price

Sourc

e: F

inancia

l T

imes

35%

of all seaborne traded oil

20%

of oil traded worldwide

14 crude oil tankers

Almost 17 million barrels

Average daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz (2011)

However, economic slowdown combined with Saudi Arabia extra-supply could lead to a market shift

Crude oil spot – Brent in US dollars and in Euros

Page 5: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

High crude prices open the door to more technological

resources

5

For the first time in 2011,

average oil prices

exceeded $100/bl

Brent crude is forecasted at

$117/bl in 2012 and $123/bl

in 2014*

Giant discoveries over

2000-2010 were

concentrated on six themes:

• Grabens and rifts

• Pre-salt carbonates

• Large deltas

• Abrupt margins

• Foothills and mountain

belts

• Unconventional

Significant resources are yet to be produced but this requires advanced technology and large scale investments

Source: IEA, CERA, Total

Break even oil price in 2010 (Internal Rate of Return > 10%)

Average oil prices

Source: Focus Gaz, February 17, 2012

* Estimation Deutsche Bank, January 2012

Page 6: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

More complex projects and higher environmental challenges,

in high-potential segments

6

Recent accidents (Macondo, Elgin) are highlighting the need for safer oil & gas development

Page 7: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

BP‟s Deepwater Horizon wellhead blowout

Largest accidental marine oil spill in the history of the

petroleum industry so far

11 people killed on the platform and 17 others injured

Unabated spill for three months: about 4.9 million

barrels of crude oil released

BP has estimated the 85-day spill cost to $40 billion,

including response and compensation

BP's share price lost 30% since the accident

High profile accidents are raising concerns and costs

7

April 20, 2010 Macondo blowout March 25, 2012 Elgin gas leak

Deep offshore oil and gas exploration and production is a risky business as all industrials activities

North Sea Elgin platform is operated by Total

“A well control problem" occurred on the wellhead

platform

Nearly 240 workers evacuated

Leak of 200,000 cubic meters of gas per day and

some 5-9 t/day of condensate into the North Sea

creating a risk of explosion

The accident is costing around $2.5 million a day in a

combination of lost production and containment efforts

Total is trying to set up a “top kill” operation to stop the

gas leak and is also proceeding with a separate plan to

drill two relief wells to divert the flowing gas

Total‟s share price lost 7% immediately after the

accident

Page 8: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

One industry response to Macondo accident – MWCC

Background:

On April 20, 2010, the semi-submersible exploratory offshore rig

Deepwater Horizon exploded after a blowout, killing 11 people and

leaving the Macondo field in the Gulf of Mexico flowing with uncapped oil

of up to 60,000 barrels a day – as a result, all drilling in the Gulf of Mexico

was stopped

Drilling will only resume once companies set up containment plans (both

technological and strategic) to prove that they can respond effectively for

a potential future disaster

8

Company Description:

The Marine Well Containment Company (MWCC) is an industry-funded

consortium committed to improving capabilities for containing a potential

future underwater blowout in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

The technology (one component pictured) is an advanced, rapid-

response system that will significantly exceed current Gulf response

capabilities

The system will be flexible, adaptable and able to begin mobilization

within 24 hours of a spill, and it would be operational within weeks

While technology is being constructed, the company is also building on

industry lessons learned from the recent Gulf incident and is securing

existing capture equipment for near-term use, should it be needed

MWCC is part of multiple industry efforts to improve prevention, well

intervention and spill response

MWCC

additional companies

can become

members

MWCC members as of April 2012

Source: MWCC

Page 9: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Marine Well Containment System (2012)

9

Functionality:

Containment capability of up to 100,000 barrels per day with

potential for expansion - well beyond the size and scope of the

Deepwater Horizon incident

The system will include specially designed subsea and surface

equipment to fully contain the oil with no flow to the sea

A newly designed and fabricated subsea containment assembly

(SCA) will create a permanent connection and seal to prevent oil

from escaping into the ocean

Increasing current well containment capabilities in the Gulf, it will

be compatible with a wide range of well designs and equipment,

oil and natural gas flow rates and weather conditions

Page 10: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

10

Capgemini’s Emergency Preparedness and Response

Assessment offer to MWCC

Support the launch of MWCC to help launch this new venture on behalf of ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhilips and

BP – this includes:

Define the business strategy

Define the long-term financial picture

Design all Operations & Maintenance processes and procedures around developing, maintaining and deploying the equipment

Establish the high-level organizational structure, governance, roles, and responsibilities

Establish core back-office capabilities in Finance & Accounting, HR and IT

Set-up the physical business office for Day 1 (functions, facilities, infrastructure)

Support the development of the steady state company across all functions to be sized according to the scope and scale of the organization (30-50 people) plus transition

• 50,000 people are back to work in the region

• Unleash > $10,000,000,000 in delayed investment

• Companies who join MWCC receive the containment technology, operations, and services for prompt disaster relief

• Through this project, we are helping 5 of the 15 largest companies in the world get back to work in one of the most critical regions of their business

Capgemini‟s role MWCC / Industry Benefits

Ultimately, we are building this industry-changing corporation: from devising the corporate vision and mission with the CEO to procuring coveralls and protective eyewear

Page 11: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Key stakeholders in the emergency logistics have usually the following set of requirements which influence the setup of the Logistic and Emergency Response Centre (LERC):

• Stability

• Quality

• Flexibility

• Responsiveness

• Availability

To setup an effective and efficient LERC, the following key areas and critical questions in relation to the phases in emergency management (Prevention, Preparedness, Response, Recovery) have to be addressed:

1. Vision and objectives

The role and objectives of LERC in various LERC operation modes

2. Organisation

Centralised vs. Decentralised position and impact on other operation centres

Resource utilisation in different operation modes

3. Governance

Roles & Responsibilities

Responsibility division between stakeholders and across the interfaces

4. Process and routines

Operation mode specific process and routines

Process coupling across the stakeholder interfaces

5. Systems and architecture

Demand on the IT infrastructure and information transparency

Focus areas and key questions to be addressed

Platform and processing operations

3. Response

4. Recovery 1. Prevention

2. Preparedness

Logistics Emergency Response Centre

SWRCP

Field Operating Centres

Environmental associations

Internal units External suppliers

24/7 Logistic & Emergency Response Center for a large oil &

gas operator

Page 12: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and

oil & gas industries

Recent events in the oil & gas industry

The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident

A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle

Energy mix evolutions

12

Page 13: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Fukushima accident first safety lessons learned

Exceptional circumstances: 9.0-magnitude undersea

earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011

triggering a tsunami that travelled up to 10 km inland.

Fukushima nuclear plant: 6 boiling water reactors

(BWR) maintained by TEPCO have been hit by the

earthquake and tsunami:

• Reactors 4, 5 and 6 were shut down prior to the earthquake

for maintenance.

• Remaining reactors shut down automatically after the

earthquake. Grid electricity supply for cooling purposes

collapsed and then the tsunami flooded the plant, knocking

out emergency generators.

• 20 km radius evacuation around the plant from March 12

Highest rating (level 7) on the International Nuclear

Event Scale. Second level 7 rating in history, following

Chernobyl

However, experts estimate that radiation health effects

should be “very minimal” for both the public and

workers*

Need to design plant infrastructures for really exceptional

earthquakes and tsunamis

Simultaneous natural catastrophes have to be taken into

account

Spent fuel storage and management policy to be

rethought

Emergency measures to be revisited

Cooling systems redundancy to be re-assessed

Radiological permanent control on the site and around

Crisis management and crisis communication to be re-

designed

Nuclear bodies and governance

13

Nuclear operators need to be prepared for beyond-design-basis external events and

improve emergency preparedness and communication (to restore public trust in

nuclear energy)

The accident First safety lessons learned

* Kathryn Higley, professor of radiation health physics in the department of nuclear engineering at Oregon University (US)

and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA)

Page 14: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Switzerland

Brazil

Czech Republic

Finland

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

Vietnam

South Africa

Germany

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Canada

Ukraine

United Kingdom

South Korea

France

Japan

India

Russia

USA

China MWe

Operable

Under construction

Planned

Proposed

The safety inspections launched on existing plants should

lead to additional investments

14

Source: World Nuclear Association

Overview of existing nuclear plants and project capacities (as of April 2012)

*IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011

The vast majority of new constructions and existing plants in operation should continue with

some delays and more safety focus. The IEA* forecasts that nuclear output will rise by

more than 70% over the period to 2035

Safety tests aim to assess:

• Plants’ resistance to simultaneous and exceptional

catastrophes (flooding and earthquakes)

• On site emergency preparedness and information

• Radiation protection of people and the environment

• And in Japan, change of governance around nuclear

safety questions

The “stress tests” reports released by all 14 EU

nuclearized Member States national nuclear regulators

do not require any plant closure

Outside Europe, nuclear stress tests are also on-going:

• China: 34 reactors passed the safety checks of which 26

are being built. On-going R&D projects to improve

emergency response mechanisms in case of extreme

disasters (to be completed around 2013). Approval for

new projects is suspended until the release of a new

Nuclear Safety Plan (expected by mid-2012). New

projects should resume at a pace of three or four per

year (slower growth than before Fukushima accident).

• US: The nuclear regulator (NRC) stated that “every plant

has the capability to effectively cool down reactor cores

and spent fuel pools following extreme events”

• Japan: no closure of nuclear plants is required by

central safety authority. However, for local acceptance

questions, only one reactor out of 54 is still in operation

Additional CAPEX and OPEX will push nuclear

electricity costs up. Nevertheless, nuclear energy stays

competitive

Page 15: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Following Fukushima accident, the French nuclear safety

authority has asked for additional safety evaluations

15

1

2

The six evaluation

domains asked by

the French nuclear

safety authority:

• Earthquake

• Flooding

• Cooling supply

disruption

• Power supply

disruption

• Major accidents

management

• Contractors

management

Re-evaluation of existing human and technical resources against the

current framework

Analysis to take into account events that may occur beyond the current framework

and if needed, implementation of complementary resources

The additional safety evaluations were run in a 2 steps approach

Source: EDF

The safety evaluations concluded that: •All 58 French reactors are compliant with current

safety levels •Complementary measures are needed in case of

exceptional and simultaneous natural disasters

Map of French nuclear reactors

Source: EDF

Page 16: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

EDF decided to strengthen its crisis organization and

associated human and technical resources

16

Strengthen on-site competencies

Organization and procedures optimization

• Training and learning programs

Nuclear Rapid Action Force

Local resources of crisis management: combination

of national and regional resources

Plug and play cooling and power supply

connection

Local crisis center

• Dedicated premises for crisis management, more robust

and better dimensioned to manage an accident impacting

an entire site for a long period

These measures will increase the already good safety level of French nuclear reactors

Page 17: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

EDF’s Nuclear Rapid Action Force

17

After Fukushima nuclear accident, EDF decided to set up a special unit (FARN

in French for Force d’Action Rapide Nucléaire) to be deployed to help any

French nuclear power plant site in case of a major nuclear accident:

• Dedicated human and material resources:

• Around 100 EDF “on-call” employees

• Equipment to provide emergency cooling and power supply to prevent core melt

• Operational in less than 24 hours and 24/7

• As a support to complement local teams

• FARN is designed to cope with accidents affecting two reactors at one site

by 2013 and four reactors simultaneously in 2014.

• FARN will comprise one national team and four regional teams based at

EDF's Civaux, Dampierre, Bugey and Paluel sites

• In October 2011, a crisis exercise was held in Cruas-Meysse plant with the

objective to test the warning system and the crisis organization to be deployed

by the public authorities and EDF

• The Emergency Response Task Force is planned to be implemented by

mid-October 2012 (finalized by end 2014)

• EDF estimates a €250 million investment to set up the FARN. Then, the annual

operating budget is forecasted to range between €50 and €100 million.

Capgemini Consulting is supporting EDF in designing

and implementing the Nuclear Rapid Action Force

Page 18: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and

oil & gas industries

Recent events in the oil & gas industry

The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident

A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle

Energy mix evolutions

18

Page 19: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

How to manage the long lifecycle of oil & gas platforms and

nuclear plants

19

Oil exploration and production is a long lifecycle activity

Source: Total

4-10

years

1-7

years

10-30

years

~1

year

Page 20: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Nuclear power plant lifecycle spans over 70 years

20

Asset lifecycle management is a key challenge in both oil exploration and production and nuclear energy industries

Source: TVO

6-7

years

~1

year

40-60

year

Page 21: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Nuclear lifetime extension requests will be scrutinized

21

IE

NL

CH

SE

DK

NO

FI

EE

LT

LV

PL

SK

RO SI

UK

PT

ES IT

GR

FR

BE

HU

DE

AT

BG

CZ LU

Overview of the nuclear plants lifetime extension in Europe before the accident

Since the Fukushima accident, Asco 1&2 in Spain and Fessenheim in France (under conditions) lifetime extensions have been accepted by the nuclear regulators

SE: Oskarshamn 3 (operating since 1985) uprating is to be finalized by 2013, extending its lifetime to 60 years (approved in 2010). Plans to uprate Oskarshamn 2 and extend its life to 60 years

HU: The 4 Paks reactors are licensed to 2012-17. 20-year life extension submitted. The application for the extension of the operating license of the first unit is due to be submitted to the HAEA before the end of 2011

CZ: 2009: +10 years (to 40 years) for the 4 Dukovany’s reactors (CEZ) operating since 1985-87). Further extension to 60 years is under consideration

FI: Mid 2007, +20 years for Fortum's 2 reactors at Loviisa, (to 2027 and 2030), subject to safety evaluation in 2015 and 2023. TVO's Olkiluoto 1&2 started up in 1978-80; lifetime extended to 60 years, subject to safety evaluation every decade. Expected shutdown in 2039 and 2042

SK: Upgrade program on the Bohunice units operating since 1984-85 held from 2005 to 2008 by Slovenské Elektrárne, with a 40-year life extension in view (to 2025)

UK: The last 3 Magnox reactors are due to shut down by the end of 2012, after life extensions of 9 months to 2 years. 5-year extension for Hinkley Point B and Hunterston B (to 2016) obtained in 2007 and for Hartlepool and Heysham 1 (to 2019) obtained in 2010. 10-year extension for Dungeness B (to 2018) obtained in 2005. Plant Lifetime Extension (PLEX) program could enable life extension of all other AGR plants by 5 years in average and Sizewell B (PWR) by 20 years

BE: October 2009: introduction of a nuclear tax of €250 million/year till the end of lifetime. December 2011: according to the nuclear safety agency, FANC, the three oldest reactors (Doel 1&2 and Tihange), would be able to safely continue beyond 2015. But political uncertainty remains: a decision was taken in autumn 2011 to phase out nuclear progressively between 2015 and 2025.

18

10

4

6 4

4

1

2

5

7

BG: Kozloduy 5&6 units are licensed to 2017 and 2019, with plans to extend their life to 50 years

2 SI/CR: 20-year life extension (to 2043) requested for Krško operated by Slovenia and Croatia

1

FR: In July 2009 the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) approved EDF's safety case for 40-year operation of the 34 existing 900 MWe units. In July 2010, EDF said that it was assessing the prospect of 60-year lifetimes for all its existing reactors.

58

Nuclearized countries Number of reactors in operation 5

NL: 2006: Life extension to 2033 for the only plant (Borssele, 485 MWe)

ES: 4-year life extension for the Santa Maria de Garona plant to 2013 obtained in 2009, should be further prolonged. Almarez 1&2 and Vandellos 2 were granted 10-year life extension for (to 2020) in 2010. In February 2011, the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) recommended a 10-year extension for Cofrentes, and did the same for Asco 1&2 in July 2011. In February 2011, parliament removed a legal provision limiting nuclear plant operating lives to 40 years

8

DE: In September 2010, the government agreed to give 8-year licence extensions for reactors built before 1980 (i.e. to 40 years), and 14-year extensions for later ones (i.e. to 46 years). Operators to pay a “fuel element tax” totaling €2.3 billion/year for 6 years and an “eco-tax” of about €15 billion. All these arrangements were thrown into doubt when in March 2011 the government decided to phase out nuclear energy by 2022, starting with the immediate shut-down of 8 plants.

9

Sourc

e: W

orld

Nucle

ar

Associa

tio

n –

Capgem

ini analy

sis

Page 22: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

22

Asset Life Cycle Management: software packages

seamlessly managing construction, operations and

maintenance

Back Office functionalities

“Engineering functionalities”

Product Data Management

Operation Maintenance

PDM

CAD

Finance

Project Management

HR

Product Life Cycle

Management PLM

1980

1990

2000

2010

“Life Cycle Management Functions”

“Operation and Maintenance Functions”

CMMS

EAM

EDM

Content

ALM

Page 23: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

EDF – information system upgrade dedicated to its

nuclear generation fleet maintenance

23

EDF‟s nuclear reactors maintenance applications upgrade project is called SDIN (Système

d’Information du Nucléaire, i.e. Nuclear IT system) and is defined based on Industry Standards

Solution:

• Corporate Asset Management (EAM) software for plant operation

• Document control software (ECM) for documentation

• Service-oriented architecture (SOA)

• The project aims to integrate these packages within a National Nuclear Information System supporting an

upgraded Engineering and Operation operating model

The project will support improvement in the areas of:

• Nuclear safety and radiation protection

• Availability of the Nuclear Power Plant

• Operating cost management

• Plant lifetime extension beyond 40 years

• EPR New Plant Commissioning and Operation

• The SDIN is also a support for EDF business projects linked to deployment of world operation’s standards

AP913 and AP928

EDF‟s nuclear capacities utilization rate (“kd”) improved from 78% in 2009 to 80.7% in 2011. EDF targets a kd around 85% by 2015

Page 24: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Business Functions covered by SDIN Project

Finance, Supply Chain

Human Resources

Business Model scope

Documents In Operation system engineering

SDIN Project scope

Operation & Maintenance

Spare Parts Catalog

Tools, Measurements

Business Indicators &

Reports

Resources &qualifications

Return On Experience

Plant Operation

Scope

Capgemini has built the Enterprise Asset Management system using Ventyx software for the 58 French nuclear reactors. This system is to be deployed progressively in all 19 sites

Portal

& CAD tools

Outage Planning

Radio- protection

Page 25: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and

oil & gas industries

Recent events in the oil & gas industry

The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident

A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle

Energy mix evolutions

25

Page 26: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

The gas paradigm is changing

In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas consumption is increased. Main

assumptions are:

• China ambitious policy for gas use

• Increased power plants‟ consumption linked to lower nuclear energy

• Sustained low gas price

However, CO2 emissions lead to a high +3.5°C temperature

increase instead of an acceptable +2°C

26

* GAS: Golden Age of Gas, IEA WEO 2011

World primary natural gas demand by

sector and scenario

Source: World Energy Outlook 2011: Golden Age of Gas Report

Source: EIA

Global unconventional natural gas resources (tcm)

NO: 2,324

FR: 5,040

PL: 5,236

SE: 1,148

FR: 5,040 Largest EU technically recoverable shale gas resources (bcm)

Shale gas changes the gas perspective:

• It increases the total gas resources to 250 years of

consumption • It is widely distributed

• It is cheap ($2/Mbtu in the US) • It allows to repatriate gas

consuming industries as chemicals and to fight against

deindustrialization

Page 27: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Gro

wth

(%

)

Electricity production (TWh)

Solar PV

Growth (abs.)Capacity Growth (%)

DE

IT

CZ

SK

FR

SI

DE

CZ

FR

2005

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

Top 3 countries ranked by:

Capacity installed* Growth** (absolute)

2. ES

1. DE

3. IT

2. FR

1. SK

3. SI

* Volume for wind, small hydro, geothermal and solar PV in MW and for biogas and biomass in TWh

** Relative growth additionally displayed for solar PV and wind

Wind

Growth (abs.)Capacity Growth (%)

DE

ES

IT

ES

DE

FR

RO

BG

PL

Biomass

DE

FI

SE

PL

SE

NL

+

2005 2006

2007 2008 2009

2010

2009

Renewable energies have continued their quick development.

For how long?

27

A stable governmental policy is key for renewables development. The eurozone sovereign debt issues should

lead to subsidies decreases and threaten the EU 2020 objective achievement

Source: Eur’Observer barometers – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13

Growth rate of renewable energy sources As of May 2011, 10% of the European

generation plants under construction

are from renewable energy sources (vs.

7% in 2009)

In 2011, despite a drop of the new EU

wind installed capacity due to the

financial crisis and tougher regulations,

wind power covered over 5% of EU‟s

consumption (172 TWh)

Many governments have or are launching

large offshore wind programs

• September 2010: 300 MW offshore wind

farm inaugurated in the UK

• France: part of the 3,000 MW tender

awarded to 2 consortiums in April 2012

(one led by EDF for 1,400 MW and one

led by Iberdrola for 500 MW)

• North Sea: 400 MW (Germany) and 325

MW (Belgium) under construction

• Nuclear phase out in Germany should

boost wind power but creates issues on

the grid

Despite the solar PV growth in 2011

globally (+44%), many solar companies

went bust because of China competition

In 2011, renewable energy investment

rose 5% to US$260 billion* globally

(solar energy: +36%) *Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Page 28: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BE BG CH CZ DE ES FI FR UK HU IT LT NL PL RO SE SI SK

Solar + Biomass

Wind

Hydro

Other fossil

Gas

Lignite + Coal

Nuclear

2010 mix: lef t-hand side bar

2025 mix: right-hand side bar

Energy mix should evolve to more gas and renewables

28

2010 and 2025 electricity mix (as of June 2011)

The energy mix evolution could result in: • Higher costs (renewables development)

• Higher temperature increase (more fossil fuels) • Lower energy independency

Sourc

e: E

NT

SO

-E –

Capgem

ini analy

sis

and e

stim

atio

ns, E

EM

O1

3

Page 29: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

With around 120,000 people in 40 countries, Capgemini is one of the world's foremost providers of

consulting, technology and outsourcing services. The Group reported 2011 global revenues of EUR 9.7

billion. Together with its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers business and technology solutions that fit

their needs and drive the results they want.

A deeply multicultural organization, Capgemini has developed its own way of working, the Collaborative

Business ExperienceTM, and draws on Rightshore ®, its worldwide delivery model.

With EUR 670 million revenue in 2011 and 8,400 dedicated consultants engaged in Utilities projects

across Europe, North & South America and Asia Pacific, Capgemini's Global Utilities Sector serves the

business consulting and information technology needs of many of the world’s largest players of this

industry.

More information is available at www.capgemini.com/energy.

Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini

Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini

About Capgemini

29

Page 30: European Energy Outlook

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector