GFMS COPPER SURVEY 2015 Prepared by GFMS, Thomson Reuters

The GFMS team at Thomson Reuters gratefully acknowledges the generous support from the following companies for this

years GFMS Copper Survey and the Update

Thomson Reuters 2015.

All content provided in this publication is owned by Thomson Reuters and/or its affiliates (the Thomson Reuters Content) and protected by United States and international copyright laws. Thomson Reuters retains all proprietary rights to the Thomson Reuters Content. The Thomson Reuters Content may not be

reproduced, copied, manipulated, transmitted, distributed or otherwise exploited for any commercial

purpose without the express written consent of Thomson Reuters. All rights are expressly reserved.

TRADEMARKS

Thomson Reuters and the Thomson Reuters logo are trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies. The third party trademarks, service marks, trade names and logos featured in this publication

are owned by the relevant third parties or their affiliates. No use of such mark, names or logos is permitted

without the express written consent of the owner.

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND NO RELIANCE

This publication is provided by Thomson Reuters on an as is and as available basis. Thomson Reuters makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness

of the Thomson Reuters Content. Thomson Reuters is an aggregator and provider of information for

general information purposes only and does not provide financial or other professional advice. Thomson

Reuters is not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from any decisions made in reliance on the

Thomson Reuters Content, including decisions relating to the sale and purchase of instruments, or risk

management decisions.

DISCLAIMER

COPPER PRICE SLIDE

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

COPPER PRICE SLIDE

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

INTRA-YEAR COPPER PRICE PERFORMANCE

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

LME COPPER STOCKS: CUMULATIVE WEEKLY CHANGE

Source: LME, GFMS, Thomson Reuters

WORLD COPPER SUPPLY AND DEMAND

2011 2012 2013 2014 Change y-o-y CAGR (3-Y) CAGR (6-Y)

Primary (conc. & SX-

EW) 16,130 16,410 16,920 18,066 7% 3.9% 2.7%

Secondary 3,465 3,580 3,795 3,740 -1% 2.6% 4.8%

Total Refined

Production 19,595 19,990 20,715 21,806 5% 3.6% 3.0%

Total Refined

Consumption 19,736 19,799 20,669 21,490 4% 2.9% 3.2%

Surplus/(Deficit) -141 191 46 316

Exchange Stock

Change -24 45 -83 -200

Implied Off-Exchange

Stock Change -117 146 129 517

LME 3-Month Price

($/tonne) 8,825 7,946 7,346 6,828 -7%

LME Cash Price

($/tonne) 8,811 7,950 7,322 6,862 -6%

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

GLOBAL CONSUMPTION BY REGION

+3.2%

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

COPPER CONSUMPTION YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

REGIONAL/COUNTRY CONSUMPTION SPLIT, 2014

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

GROWTH TRENDS AND REGIONAL SPLIT BY END-USE

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

EXCHANGE & BONDED WAREHOUSE STOCKS

Source: LME, COMEX, Chinas Customs, GFMS, Thomson Reuters

CHINESE REFINED COPPER IMPORTS VS BONDED PREMIA

CHINA END-USE SPLIT

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

CHINA AUTO PRODUCTION

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)

REAL ESTATE SLOWDOWN

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)

GROWTH AT END-USE SECTORS-AC DESTOCKING

Source: China Electricity Council, NBS

INVESTMENT IN POWER GRID FALLS

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters, China Electricity Council, NBS,

MINED AND REFINED PRODUCTION

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

ANNUAL INCREASES IN MINED AND REFINED PRODUCTION

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

MINE PRODUCTION: VARIANCE ANALYSIS

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

BY REGION BY COUNTRY

MINE PRODUCTION WINNERS AND LOSERS

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

GFMS MINE ECONOMICS: COPPER

GLOBAL UNIT COSTS AND MARGINS

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

NET UNIT CASH COST BY REGION

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

ORE PROCESSED AND IMPLIED COPPER GRADE

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

CASH AND TOTAL COST CURVES; MINES

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

0 20 40 60 80 100

US

$/T

ON

NE

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION (%)

2014 copper price

Net cash costs

Total costs

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

CASH AND TOTAL COST CURVES; COMPANIES

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

0 20 40 60 80 100

US

$/T

ON

NE

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION (%)

CO

DE

LC

O

FR

EE

PO

RT

GL

EN

CO

RE

BH

P B

ILL

ITO

N

SO

UT

HE

RN

CO

PP

ER

RIO

TIN

TO

KG

HM

AN

GL

O A

ME

RIC

AN

AN

TO

FA

GA

ST

A

FIR

ST

QU

AN

TU

M

2014 copper price

Net cash costs

Total costs

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

CASH COSTS 2014; COUNTRY

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

0 20 40 60 80 100

US

$/T

ON

NE

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION (%)

IND

ON

ES

IA

ME

XIC

O

PO

LA

ND

CH

ILE

PE

RU

CO

NG

O (

DR

C)

UN

ITE

D S

TA

TE

S

BR

AZ

IL

AU

ST

RA

LIA

ZA

MB

IA

Net cash costs

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

90TH PERCENTILE COASH AND TOTAL COSTS

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

M&A ACTIVITIY - DEAL SCREENER ON EIKON

METALS & MINING GLOBAL M&A DEAL VALUE/VOLUME

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

DEAL VALUE BY COMMODITY 2014

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

M&A DEAL VALUE BY SECTOR

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

M&A DEAL VALUE BY SECTOR

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

M&A DEAL VALUE BY SECTOR

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

M&A DEAL VALUE BY SECTOR

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

CHINESE M&A DEAL VALUE SPLIT BY TARGET NATION

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

COPPER: GLOBAL M&A DEAL VALUE AND VOLUME

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

COPPER M&A DEALS 2014/15

Acquiror Name Target Name Completion Date Deal Value $m Key asset stage asset location

MMG South America

Management Xstrata Peru SA Aug-14 7,005 Las Bambas construction Peru

Lundin Mining Corp Freeport-McMoRan

Inc Nov-14 2,000 Candelaria operating Chile

First Quantum Minerals Ltd

Lumina Copper Corp

Aug-14 395 Taca Taca project Argentina

HudBay Minerals Inc

Augusta Resource Corp

Jul-14 328 Rosemont project United States

Kazakhmys PLC CCC Mining

Construction BV Jun-14 260 Koksay project Kazakhstan

Alsons Prime Investments Corp

Indophil Resources NL

Jan-15 255 Tampakan project Philippines

PanAust Ltd Xstrata Frieda River

Ltd Aug-14 125 Frieda River project Papua New Guinea

Boliden Mineral AB Altona Mining Ltd Oct-14 95 Kylylahti operating Finland

Investor Group Nesko Metal Sanayi

ve Ticaret AS May-14 65 Munella/Lakrosh operating Albania

RTG Mining Inc Sierra Mining Ltd May-14 60 Mabilo/Bunawan project Philippines

INCENTIVE PRICE FOR NEW SUPPLY

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

MAJOR COPPER PROJECTS

Project Company Location Process Type Capacity

(000 tpa) Capex

(US$ M) Start Date

Aktogay Kaz Minerals Kazakhstan Conc/SX-EW New Project 104 2,300 Q4 2015/17

Antucoya Antofagasta Chile SX-EW New Project 85 1,900 H1 2015

Bozshakol Kazakhmys Kazakhstan Conc New Project 75 2,250 Q4 2015

Buenavista Southern Copper Mexico Conc Expansion 170 1,384 2015

Sentinel First Quantum Zambia Conc New Project 300 1,900 Mid-2015

Antapaccay Glencore Peru Conc Expansion 9 34 2016

Cerro Verde expansion

Freeport Peru Conc Expansion 272 4,600 2016

El Tesoro (Encuentro

Oxidos) Antofagasta Chile SX-EW Expansion 50 636 2016

Jabal Sayid Barrick/Maaden Saudi Arabia Conc New Project 45 350 2016

Las Bambas MMG/CITIC, Guoxin Intl

Peru Conc New Project 400 5,885 2016

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

COMPANY REPORTED PLANNED NEW CAPACITY

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

COMPANY REPORTED PLANNED NEW CAPACITY

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

3 YEAR OUTLOOK FOR COPPER

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

Y-O-Y GROWTH RATES FORECAST TO 2017

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

GLOBAL COPPER BALANCE FORECAST TO 2017

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

GLOBAL COPPER BALANCE FORECAST TO 2017

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

WILDCARDS AND CAVEATS

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

Any

Questions?

THANK YOU bruce.alway@thomsonreuters.com

Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters