emerging trends in unmanned aerial systems · unmanned aerial systems puneet bhalla since the first...

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Emerging Trends in Unmanned Aerial Systems

PUNEET BHALLA

Since the first Gulf War in 1991, the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)

has continued to increase in successive US campaigns across the world. The

initial exploitation for target acquisition and Intelligence, Surveillance and

Reconnaissance (ISR) missions has expanded to include Electronic Warfare

(EW) missions and as decoys. Arming the Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

(UAVs) with Hellfire missiles has allowed them to be used in the hunter-killer

configuration, greatly reducing the sensor-to-shooter cycle. These Unmanned

Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) have since seen global employment by US forces

against terrorist targets in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.

Removal of the onboard pilot and human support systems has resulted in

increased endurance and loiter time and allowed employment of UAVs in high

risk situations. Consequently, there has been an ever increasing dependence of

the US and coalition forces on these platforms and their expanded role in critical

missions in battles where the forces enjoy air superiority. This has further resulted

in steady efforts at improving the sophistication of the platforms, their payloads,

weapons, communications and Ground Control Systems (GCS) all of which

together are being called Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). The phenomenon

is being observed by other nations and the market for military UAVs as well as

development efforts across the globe have picked up. The US, Israel and China,

however, continue to dominate the sector, with initiatives in most other countries

being in their relative infancy.

87scholar warrior AUTUMN 2015ä ä

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Technology advancement and proliferation have allowed private

entrepreneurs to develop commercial applications for unmanned systems,

many of which were demonstrated last year. The resultant surge in interest

in the domain has caused some proponents to label 2014 as “the year of the

UAVs”. While commercial interest is focussed more towards the smaller UAVs,

any technology progression would contribute towards overall development

of the sector through technology sharing and overlapping applications.

Incremental improvements to the platforms, sensors, propulsive systems,

communications and weapon systems would continue. However, those at the

forefront are looking at emerging technologies to revolutionise capabilities

as well as provide novel applications that, while being cost-effective, would

transform the future battlefield. The article strives to discuss some of these

innovative concepts.

Autonomy One of the most important technology drivers for UAV development is

autonomy. Unmanned systems initially were primarily remotely piloted

aircraft. Subsequent advances allowed UAVs the option of choosing and

following defined pre-programmed options. As ever more processing power

in smaller packages can be put onto the UAVs, available inputs from multiple

sensor systems can be processed onboard to provide better situational

awareness and autonomous decision-making ability. Similar capability

supplemented through advanced algorithms and advanced machine learning1

would enable more autonomy in machine response through flight control

systems, in-flight mission management, distributed data fusion and automatic

target recognition/engagement. Demonstrations of machines responding

intelligently and without human interference to simple situations have

already taken place. As this capability improves further, human involvement

would progressively decrease, thereby reducing bandwidth requirement for

communication and data transfer as also reducing the vulnerability of the

data link to counter-measures. Thereby, autonomous systems would also

overcome limitations related to erratic communications, for example, in

areas with obstructions such as dense forests and urban sprawls. The US

Department of Defence’s (DoD)’s Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap

released in January 2014 has outlined a variety of goals for air, land, and sea

vehicles that include capability to deviate from the pre-planned missions and

altering course without a human command.2


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However, machine response through computer programming tends to be

limited in flexibility and is currently prioritised towards safety rather than

dynamism, a prerequisite for military operations. Over a period of time,

unless regularly updated, this might result in these machines becoming

predictive in their responses. Despite the progress, coding required to totally

replace all human actions and responses, if possible, is still a long time into

the future. Cyber attacks would be more effective on autonomous systems

in the absence of response options like physical overrides. These limitations

dictate the presence of humans in the loop at all times, especially for lethal

missions.

Aerial RefuellingA major milestone in autonomy was achieved in April this year when the X-47B

test UAV of the US Navy undertook the first ever autonomous aerial refuelling

from a KC-707 tanker jet, receiving 4,000 pounds of fuel. Aerial refuelling is a

highly complex task involving precise position keeping which even humans take

time to master. The US Navy claimed that the resultant increase in range would

help in extending the carrier power projection.

Ground Control Station (GCS) Increasing autonomy would also contribute to a reduction in the requirements

from GCS. These are already making use of Commercial Off-the-Shelf (COTS) items

to harness the latest technology and reduce costs. Additionally, UAV proponents

are seeking interoperability among different systems through common hardware

and software architecture. This would further lead to common GCS that would

be able to control multiple dissimilar machines and communicate with other

distant GCS for better air space control and data sharing. GCS forms a major

component of the overall costs of the UAS and, thus, any reduction in their

numbers would bring down the overheads.

DesigningFaster processing speeds and advanced manufacturing processes are allowing

designers to exploit the elimination of a human pilot to enhance the performance

and combat power of the machines. For example, such machines can be designed

for evasive high g manoeuvres much in excess of what human pilots can endure.

Such UAS armed with sophisticated air-to-air weaponry would be able to prevail

over manned fighter opposition.


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Standardisation of components and payloads in

terms of size, weight, shape, power requirements and

interfaces would allow the “plug-and-play” concept.

Capabilities, thus, would not be dependent on the

platform but would be customised at short notice to

meet the mission requirements, thereby providing

operational flexibility. Further reduction of costs

related to platform development and production could

be achieved through 3D printing of smaller UAVs with standardised designs and

integrated payloads, a concept already under consideration.3 This would also

allow mass production of small UAVs in a reduced timeframe.

SwarmsUAV swarms, inspired mainly by the swarms of insects, are groups of small

independent unmanned vehicles that coordinate their operations through

autonomous communications to accomplish goals as an intelligent group, with

or without human supervision. It may be a heterogeneous mix of machines

with dissimilar tasks but contributing synergistically to the overall mission

objectives. An idea that is almost a decade old is now seeing fruition owing to the

advancement in diverse technologies including sensing, digitisation, networking

and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Swarms can have myriad applications based on

the imagination and capabilities.

Demonstration of swarms using dissimilar UAS4 for reconnaissance

was demonstrated by Boeing in 2011. They communicated with each other

autonomously and searched the designated area through self-generating

waypoints and terrain mapping, while simultaneously sending information to

teams on the ground.5 In 2012, the same technology was used to control two

ScanEagle UAVs using only a laptop and a military radio, demonstrating the

ability to do away with the need of a ground control network. Tests continued

on terrestrial robots (2D motion) and in August 2014, as part of the US Navy’s

Low-Cost UAV Swarming Technology (LOCUST) programme, its Office of Naval

Research (ONR) demonstrated a swarming configuration of 13 robotic boats

that were able to perform a variety of tasks to protect a high-value ship from

incoming craft.6 In April this year, ONR undertook demonstrations of UAV

swarming technology at multiple locations, including one where nine UAVs

accomplished completely autonomous UAV synchronisation and formation

flight.

Technological advancement have reduced human involvement leading to greater autonomy and operation of UAVs


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Swarms of unmanned systems have multiple defensive and offensive

applications with the potential to effect disruptive changes to military

operations. Swarms of cheap UAVs, through coordinated cooperative

efforts, could do the job of a single high-cost multi-mission aircraft. They

could enhance both surveillance area and spectrum, resorting to advanced

communication and data fusion capabilities. Swarms of robotic systems

can bring greater mass, coordination, intelligence, speed, resilience and

responsiveness to the battlefield, enhancing the ability of war-fighters to

gain a decisive advantage over their adversaries.7 Autonomous swarms are

more suited to undertake more hazardous tasks. Swarms could overwhelm

an adversary’s defence systems, most of which are designed to respond to

a limited number of targets, through sheer numbers. The tactical advantage

can be augmented by using a diverse mix of heterogeneous assets to further

complicate the enemy’s targeting problem. This would allow higher value assets

to fly through for mission accomplishment. With advanced autonomous and

networking capabilities, swarming UAVs would be able to act in more fluid,

flexible, non-linear ways. They could then follow the conventional concept of

swarming for lethal and non-lethal missions – small, dispersed, networked

severable packages that can spontaneously come together in varied sized

groups, coalesce on mission objective from multiple directions, undertake

the desired operations and then disperse randomly and recombine. 8

The concept of swarming can only be successful if the machines employed

are cheap enough that their large numbers in sum cost less than the manned

machines, especially if they are to be expendable. However, the technology

involved is highly complex and, thus, expensive to develop. As the per unit costs

rise, it might not be cost-effective to use these in the expendable role, thereby

severely limiting their employability and flexibility. The potential of the swarms

of drones to provide diverse civilian applications are leading to commercial and

academic efforts to refine the technologies and provide cost rationalisation.

Such COTS UAS (Unmanned Aerial Systems) could be employed judiciously for

military missions.

Swarms are also constrained because of the bandwidth availability

necessary for multiple UAVs to talk to each other as well as to the GCS. Further,

their communications would be vulnerable to counter-measures. Laser

communication offers some solutions for overcoming these limitations related

to Radio Frequency (RF) communication.


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As unmanned systems are going to proliferate in the

future with ever increasing capabilities, nations would

develop anti-technologies against these machines. These

would include soft-kill options like electronic counter-

measures against the communication links as also

lethal measures to damage or destroy the launch systems, GCS or the machines

themselves. Defensive swarms offer great potential to fend off other swarms. 9

Launch SystemsInnovative launch and recovery concepts are equally important for the

success of novel concepts. For swarms to be truly effective, all constituent

UAVs have to be launched near simultaneously. The US Navy’s LOCUST

programme uses a launcher consisting of a series of adjacently placed tubes

that would allow rapid launch of their one metre-long Coyote drones. A video

released by the US ONR of a test conducted on March 27, shows the UAV after

launch unfolding its wings and propellers, stabilising and flying away.10 There

are plans for a demonstration of launch of up to 30 synchronised drones

within one minute by 2016. The launcher and the UAV are relatively compact

to allow the system to be deployed from ships, tactical vehicles, aircraft or

other unmanned platforms.

The US DoD’s Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap also predicts

development of a larger unmanned vehicle that would carry smaller drones

directly into the theatre of operations and deploying them within range of a

target, thereby overcoming their limitations of range and endurance. Towards

this, in November last year, the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency

(DARPA) announced that it was seeking ideas for a “mother ship” that could

carry and launch swarms, under the programme name Distributed Airborne

Capabilities. The initial objective is to use existing military aircraft, such as

the C-130 or V-22 Osprey for the mission. As airborne recovery is not as viable

as the launch, most air-launched drones would be expendable.11 In March

this year, the US Marines fired Switchblade kamikaze drones12 out of a V-22’s

rear ramp as part of their Persistent Close Air Support programme.13 A similar

concept had earlier been tested in 2003 from the ramp of a C-130 via a roll-on/

roll-off pneumatic launch system.14 The US Navy is exploring deployment of

a submarine-hunting drone by the US Navy’s P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol

aircraft’s sonobuoy rotary launchers.15 Boeing is seeking canister launch

of a ScanEagle UAV from the F/A-18 Super Hornet that could then provide

New launch systems have increased range and endurance of UAVs


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targeting information to the jet from a stand-off distance. 16 China’s Chengdu

Aviation Corporation is developing a mini AVIC drone that can be fitted inside

an artillery casing and fired from large artillery. The cannon shell will burst

open in mid-flight to release the drone, which would then carry out target

designation for the parent battery. 17

System of Systems

The present lot of unmanned systems as well as those expecting to see active

operations in the near future do not match the corresponding manned systems

in terms of speed, range and firepower and are also highly vulnerable to air

defence systems. Their strengths lie in their persistence presence, hunter killer

capability and faraway employment. An ideal approach is to use an optimal

mix of assets that would exploit their individual strengths and help shield the

shortcomings towards creating a more powerful, functional synergised system.

Also, a smaller number of high value assets could work in concert with a larger

number of cheaper ones for better cost-effectiveness.

There are growing concerns in the US that proliferation of technology and

commercial developments are eroding the technological supremacy of its

armed forces. Long developmental cycles of military technology costing billions

of dollars to the US are ironically allowing adversaries to catch up through

exploitation of rapid technological developments in the commercial sector and

by progressive system upgrades. Developmental and production costs related to

complex platforms and systems have led to a reduction in numbers that can be

produced and deployed, resulting in critical gaps.18

Through various civilian contracts, DARPA’s System of Systems Integration

Technology and Experimentation (SoSITE) programme19 is working at

maintaining air superiority through a new, more flexible approach to weapon

systems by spreading key capabilities and functions across a variety of

interoperable sensors, mission systems and weapons onboard manned and

unmanned vehicles. In March, it released a video of the concept which it claims

is at a very early stage of design. It shows jet fighters (acting as a command and

control platform), expendable drones’ swarms launched from the back of C-130

transport plane and inexpensive cruise missiles also fired by the transport aircraft

working together to take on the enemy air defence. This being one scenario,

these networked systems can be coordinated to provide diverse air defence and

ground attack solutions.


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Additionally, an open systems architecture approach is being employed

that would create common standards and tools for developing interchangeable

modules and platforms, so only some components would need replacing or

upgrading rather than a whole system. As standards evolve with advancing

technology, backward compatibility would ensure that existing systems’

capabilities would continue to be harnessed, thus, saving on huge developmental

costs. Integration of newer systems would be faster without necessitating any

major alterations. Consequently, while the systems would undergo changes

regularly, the overall upgrading would be incremental, allowing doctrines,

operational philosophies and training to keep pace.

ConclusionWhile technology offers newer equipment, its success on the battlefield can only

be achieved through effective doctrinal innovations. These concepts related to

UAS development have the potential to influence the future battlefield and, thus,

need to be followed closely by militaries, analysts, technologists and defence

industry around the world. As the Indian armed forces seek enhanced unmanned

capabilities and capacities in terms of platforms and payloads, recent governmental

initiatives to step up private investments in the sector are encouraging. There is

now a requirement to study the relevance of these futuristic concepts to their own

battlefield projections and define a developmental roadmap.

Gp Capt Puneet Bhalla is a Senior Fellow at Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi.

Notes1. Advance machine learning is a sub-field of computer science that explores construction

and study of algorithms that can learn from, and make predictions on, data. These make

data driven predictions or decisions rather than following static programme instructions.

Machines can, thus, learn from, and respond, based on data rather than respond to static

programmes. Already demonstrations have taken place of machines learning basic games on

their own or learning cooking from watching videos.

2. “Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, FY 2013-2038”, US Department of Defence,

accessed at http://www.defense.gov/pubs/DOD-USRM-2013.pdf

3. Chris Paulson, András Sóbester, James Scanlan, “Rapid Development of Bespoke Sensorcraft

for Atmospheric Research”, University of Southampton, accessed at http://www.isarra.org/

abstracts_2015/Paulson_isarra_abstract.pdf

4. Two ScanEagle and one Procerus Unicorn from the Johns Hopkins University’s Applied

Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL)


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5. “The Mothership – UAV Swarms Inspire Research Into Flying Aircraft Carriers”, Air

Force Technology, February 10, 2015, accessed at http://www.airforce-technology.com/

features/featurethe-mothership---uav-swarms-inspire-research-into-flying-aircraft-

carriers-4505474/

6. Patrick Tucker, “Inside the Navy’s Secret Swarm Robot Experiment”, Defense One, October

5, 2014, accessed at http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2014/10/inside-navys-secret-

swarm-robot-experiment/95813/

7. Paul Scharre, “Robotics on the Battlefield Part II, The Coming Swarm”, Centre for a New

American Security, October 15, 2014, accessed at http://www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/

publications-pdf/CNAS_TheComingSwarm_Scharre.pdf

8. John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt, “Swarming -- The Next Face of Battle”, Rand Blog, Rand

Corporation, September 29, 2003, accessed at http://www.rand.org/blog/2003/09/

swarming----the-next-face-of-battle.html

9. Debra Werner, “Drone Swarm: Networks of Small UAVs Offer Big Capabilities”, Defense

News, June 12, 2013 , accessed at http://archive.defensenews.com/article/20130612/

C4ISR/306120029/Drone-Swarm-Networks-Small-UAVs-Offer-Big-Capabilities

10. The video, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyguXoum3rk also displays the

micro UAVs undertaking autonomous formation flying and lighting up multiple targets.

11. n.5.

12. The “Switchblade” drone is the first batch of weaponised drones that is foldable and packs

neatly into its launch tube. It has an electric motor that allows it to loiter and suicide bomb a

target when commanded. It is similar to the Israeli built Harop, a kind of loitering missile that

can be used against high value targets.

13. Kelsey D. Atherton, “Marine V-22 Osprey Shoots Kamikaze Drones Out Its Backside”, Popular

Science, April 21, 2015, accessed at http://www.popsci.com/marine-v-22-shoots-kamikaze-

drones-out-its-backside

14. David W. Roberts, Aaron D. Judy, Test Report – “Separation Flight Tests of a Small Unmanned

Air Vehicle from a C-130 Transport Aircraft”, accessed at http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/

viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.214.6239&rep=rep1&type=pdf

15. n.5.

16. Ibid.

17. Jeffrey Lin, P.W. Singer, “China Shows Off Cannon-Fired Drones”, January 27, 2015, accessed

at http://www.popsci.com/china-shows-drones-fired-cannon

18. David Szondy, “DARPA Looks at ‘System of Systems’ to Maintain US Air Superiority”, Gizmag,

April 1, 2015, accessed at http://www.gizmag.com/darpa-systems-sosite/36801/

19. John Shaw, “System of Systems Integration Technology and Experimentation (SoSITE)”,

Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), accessed at http://www.darpa.mil/

program/system-of-systems-integration-technology-and-experimentation

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