ellig reg analysis and counteterrorism sept 2006
TRANSCRIPT
A Framework for Evaluating Counterterrorism
Regulations
Jerry ElligSenior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center
Amos GuioraDirector, Institute for Global Security Law and
PolicyCase Western Reserve School of Law
Kyle McKenzieResearch Fellow, Mercatus Center
What can an analytical framework do?
Regulatory analysis identifies cause and effect
Regulatory analysis cannot automate the decision
… Or, in Plain English:
1. Figure out what you’re trying to do and how you’ll know you did it
2. Figure out why government needs to do it
3. Figure out what level of government needs to do it
4. Think about different ways to do it and find the most effective one
5. Figure out what you have to give up to do whatever you’re trying to do
6. Weigh the pros and cons
When to do the analysis?
Prospective: Compare a variety of alternatives that are intended to accomplish the same goal
Prospective: Assess a particular proposed regulation
Retrospective: Assess a set of regulations that are intended to accomplish the same goal(s)
1. Outcomes
Benefit to the public produced, or harm avoided, as a result of government action
Activities, outputs, expenditures, laws, programs, and regulations are not outcomes
Measure regulation’s effect on outcomes and verify causality
1. Identify the Desired OutcomesNot Outcomes
Number of information analysis productsNumber of information analysis community member organizations with which the Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection (IAIP) Directorate is integratedDevelopment and support of a cyber security test bedPercent of worldwide US destined containers processed through Container Security Initiative portsNumber of cyber security work products disseminatedNumber of Researchers Supported
1. Identify the desired outcomesOutcomes
Maritime injury and fatality index (five-year moving average of maritime deaths and injuries)
Number of firefighter injuries and civilian deaths from fire
Percentage of Secret Service protectees who arrive and depart safely
Number of criminal and terrorist attacks initiated from aircraft
where at least one air marshal was present
2. Market failure: Voluntary action provides less security than people are willing to pay for Public Goods
Externalities
Imperfect Information
Monopoly
Likely
Likely
Maybe
Unlikely
2. Assess evidence of market failure
“First, do no harm.”
But also: Understanding why there is a problem will lead to an effective solution
E.g., airline security and incentives facing airports
3. Identify the core federal role What is the federal government’s
“comparative advantage”?
When do states or localities have inadequate incentives to provide security?
Where does the federal govt. have better knowledge, and where do other levels have better knowledge?
3. Identify the core federal role
Evacuation plans (state)
Border security (federal)
4. Assess effectiveness of alternatives Government action by government personnel
Command and control regulation
Performance-based regulation
Mandated information disclosure
Ex post liability
What counts as an alternative? Agencies often consider tweaks on same
basic regulation
Congress often constrains agency flexibility
Decisionmaker (agency or Congress) has responsibility for doing the analysis
4. Assess effectiveness of alternative approaches
Pre – 9/11 Security contractors
Post – 9/11 Federalized screening
Post – 9/11 Screening contractor pilot programs
5. Costs
Federal expenditures
Non-federal expenditures
Price effects Pass-through of costs Deadweight loss
Quality effects
Behavioral changes
5. Identify CostsTSA Budget
$4.3 billion (2005)
Dead Weight Loss
Increased Waiting Time
Increased fatalities due to substitution from flying to driving
$2.35 billion (2005)
$2.76 billion (2005)
116 individuals (4th Quarter 2002)
6. Compare costs with outcomes Cost effectiveness
Cost-benefit
Breakeven
Note: None of these make the decision automatic!
6. Compare costs with outcomes
Regulatory Analysis in Plain English1. Figure out what you’re trying to do and how you’ll
know you did it
2. Figure out why government needs to do it
3. Figure out what level of government needs to do it
4. Think about different ways to do it and find the most effective one
5. Figure out what you have to give up to do whatever you’re trying to do
6. Weigh the pros and cons