eia’s coal outlook through 2030 · 2009. 10. 15. · • eia’s analyses and projections should...
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EIA’s Coal Outlook Through 2030
Diane KearneyEnergy Information Administration
U.S. Department of Energy
Surface Transportation Board
September 17, 2008Washington, DC
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Energy Information Administration
• Independent statistical agency within the Department of Energy– www.eia.doe.gov
• Produce monthly short-term and annual long-term forecasts of U.S. and world energy markets
• Short Term Energy Outlook– http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
• Annual Energy Outlook, 2008– http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html
• International Energy Outlook, 2008– http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
• Produce special analyses of emerging issues and the impacts of regulatory/legislative changes– http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/service_rpts.htm– http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.htm
• EIA’s analyses and projections should not be seen as advocating or reflecting any position of the Department of Energy, the Administration, or any other organization.
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Topics
• AEO2008 Overview• Coal distribution and transportation prices
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AEO2008 Overview
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Energy Production by Fuel, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Petroleum
Nonhydro renewables
Hydropower
Coal
Natural gas
Nuclear
ProjectionsHistory
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Reference Case (June 2008)
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Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Natural Gas
Liquids
Nuclear
Coal
Nonhydro renewables
Hydropower
ProjectionsHistory
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Reference Case (June 2008)
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Coal Consumption by Sector, 1970-2030(million short tons)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010 2020 2030
Electric Power
Other
Total
ProjectionsHistory
Coal to Liquids
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Reference Case (June 2008)
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AEO2008 Reference Case Top 4 Growth Demand Regions, Growth in Select
Years Compared to 2006(million short tons)
2015 2030
+12 +88
+14 +66
+5 +53
+12 +45
Mountain
West South Central
West North Central
East South Central
AZ,NM,CO,UT,NV,MT,WY,ID
TX,LA,OK,AR
MN,IA,ND,SD,NE,MO,KS
AL,MS,KY,TN
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AEO2008: Coal Production by Region, 1970-2030(million short tons)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010 2020 2030
Wyoming PRB*
Appalachia
Total
Interior
ProjectionsHistory
Total: AEO2007
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Reference Case (June 2008); and Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (February 2007)
West (excluding Wyoming PRB)
* Wyoming PRB data for 1970 through 1976 are based on data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration.
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Coal Production, 2030 (and 2006)(million short tons)
233
148
94230
15
62
88 (31) 4 (3) 153 (99)
192 (136)
115 (237)
21 (19)
84 (50)
42 (34)
92 (62)
16 (16)
567 (431)*
4 (4)** 76 (41)
U.S. Total: 1,455 (1,163) million short tons
* Includes production from all mines in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin. ** Includes production from mines in both Alaska and Washington.
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Reference Case (June 2008)
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Average Minemouth Price of Coal by Region, 1980-2030(2006 dollars per short ton)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
West (incl. Wyoming PRB)U.S. Average
Interior
Appalachia37.42
24.65
ProjectionsHistory
U.S. Average,Nominal Dollars
Wyoming PRB*
* Wyoming PRB price data for 1980 through 2006 represent shipments from mines in Campbell county Wyoming. Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008, Reference Case (June 2008)
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U.S. Coal Production, 2006, 2020 and 2030(million short tons)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006 2020 2030
AEO2008 Low Oil/Natural Gas Price AEO2008 Low Economic GrowthAEO2008 High Coal Cost AEO2008 ReferenceAEO2008 Low Coal Cost AEO2008 High Economic GrowthAEO2008 High Oil/Natural Gas Price S.2191 Core
AEO2008Reference
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (June 2008); and Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate SecurityAct of 2007 (April 2008).
**
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13Key Differences between Alternative Cases
GDP Growth(avg. annual change from 2006)
World Oil Price,2030 (2006 dollars perbarrel)
Wellhead natural gas price, 2030(2006 dollars perMcf)
Eastern Coal Rail Rates*, 2030(percent change from 2006)
Western Coal Rail Rates*, 2030(percent change from 2006)
Mining Productivity(avg. annual change from 2006)
2% 0.6%
Coal High Cost
8% 8% -3%
S. 2191 Lieberman-Warner
39% below 2006
levels in 2030
Green-house Gas Cap
Reference 2.4% 1%$6.63$70
$119 $7.77High Oil/Gas Price
All cases include representation of the Clean Air Interstate Rule and Clean Air Mercury Rule.*Constant dollars.
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Average Delivered Coal Prices, 1990-2030(2006 dollars per million Btu)
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Reference
High Price
ProjectionsHistory
High Coal Cost
S.2191 Core
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (June 2008); and Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007 (April 2008).
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Coal Distribution and Transportation Prices
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General Assumptions
• Base transportation rates are derived from the difference between delivered prices and minemouth prices
• Transportation rates are modeled for origin region to destination region pairs
• Base year transportation rates are modified over time with an econometrically derived escalator (in 2030, 1% higher for East and 2% higher for West compared to 2006)
• Representation of fuel surcharge program• The model satisfies coal demand by choosing the least
cost solution
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Distribution of coal to the Mountain Census Division, 2006* and 2030
(million short tons, percentage)
*Volumes with unknown destinations or origins are excluded. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. For 2006, 12 million tons is estimated to be sourced from Western Wyoming. Waste coal is excluded.
34, 27%
35, 27%
11, 9%35, 28%
12, 9%
Arizona/New Mexico Northern AppalachiaRocky Mountain Eastern InteriorWestern Montana WY PRBWestern Wyoming
2006*
2030
42, 19%
85, 39%
30, 14%
45, 21%
16, 7%
41, 15%
90, 34%
44, 16%
79, 29%
17, 6%
AEO2008 Reference
High Oil and Gas Price
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Distribution of coal to the West South Central Census Division, 2006* and 2030
(million short tons, percentage)
*Volumes with unknown destinations or origins are excluded. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Waste coal is excluded.
107, 65%
49, 30%
3, 2%4, 2%
1, 1%
Western Interior WY PRBGulf Lignite Eastern InteriorRocky Mountain Imports
2006*
2030
4, 2% 139, 61%
84, 37%
4, 1% 191, 65%
101, 34%
AEO2008 Reference
High Oil and Gas Price
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Distribution of coal to the West North Central Census Division, 2006* and 2030
(million short tons, percentage)
1, 1%
111, 70%
1, 1%
10, 6%
30, 19%
3, 2%
Rocky Mountain Western InteriorWY PRB Eastern InteriorCentral Appalachia Western MontanaDakota Lignite
2006*
2030
112, 49%
2, 1%
24, 11%88, 39%
142, 49%
2, 1%
24, 8%122, 42%
AEO2008 Reference
High Oil and Gas Price
*Volumes with unknown destinations or origins are excluded. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Waste coal is excluded.
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Distribution of coal to the East South Central Census Division, 2006* and 2030
(million short tons, percentage)
26, 19%
9, 7%
4, 3%
0, 0%
12, 9%
5, 4%12, 9%
33, 23%
37, 26%
Central Appalachia Southern AppalachiaNorthern Appalachia Eastern InteriorWY PRB ImportsRocky Mountain Western MontanaWestern Interior
2006*
2030
26, 13%
82, 43%
27, 14%4, 2%
42, 22%
8, 4%4, 2%
30, 15% 3, 2%
24, 12%
85, 43%
18, 9%
5, 3%
31, 16%
AEO2008 Reference
High Oil and Gas Price
*Volumes with unknown destinations or origins are excluded. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Waste coal is excluded.
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Distribution of coal to the South Atlantic Census Division, 2006* and 2030
(million short tons, percentage)
*Volumes with unknown destinations or origins are excluded. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Waste coal is excluded.
1, 1%
7, 4%
1, 1%
19, 10%
130, 65%
6, 3%
32, 16%
Southern Appalachia Central AppalachiaEastern Interior Wyoming PRBRocky Mountain Northern AppalachiaImports
2006*
2030 , 0%
75, 31%
8, 3%
28, 11%
58, 24%
23, 9%
54, 22%
, 0%
76, 34%
9, 4%
20, 9%
38, 17%
10, 4%
73, 32%
AEO2008 Reference
High Oil and Gas Price
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$14.97
$7.63
$16.16
$14.34
$13.14
$6.21
$19.51
$13.98
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25
Appalachia
Interior
West
Total
2006 dollars per short ton
347
100
197
33
677
151
257
112
819
299
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Appalachia
Interior
West
Imports
Total
million short tons
2006 2030
*Rates exclude exports. National Energy Modeling System run: AEO2008.d030208f.
Demand located East of the Mississippi
Transportation Rates and Volumes by Supply Region
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$1.89
$9.97
$9.00
$1.85
$11.05
$9.88
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25
Interior
West
Total
2006 dollars per short ton
55
402
457
623
713
90
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Interior
West
Total
million short tons
2006 2030
Demand located West of the Mississippi
Transportation Rates and Volumes by Supply Region
*Rates exclude exports. National Energy Modeling System run: AEO2008.d030208f.
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Distribution of coal from Central Appalachia, 2006 and 2030(million short tons)
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
AL, MS, KY, TN
OH, IN, IL, MI, WI
WV, MD, DC, DE, VA,NC, SC, GA, FL
NY, PA, NJ
2006*AEO2008 RefHigh Oil and Gas PriceHigh Coal CostLieberman-Warner
East South Central:
East North Central:
South Atlantic:
Middle Atlantic:
*Volumes with unknown origin, or unknown destination are not shown. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Projected volumes of less than 1 million tons are not included.
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Distribution of coal from Northern Appalachia, 2006* and 2030
(million short tons)
0 20 40 60 80 100
AL, MS, KY, TN
WV, MD, DC, DE, VA, NC,SC, GA, FL
OH, IN, IL, MI, WI
NY, PA, NJ
2006*
AEO2008Ref
High Oil andGas Price
High CoalCost
Lieberman-Warner
East South Central:
East North Central:
South Atlantic:
Middle Atlantic:
*Volumes with unknown origin, or unknown destination are not shown. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Projected volumes of less than 1 million tons are not included.
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Distribution of coal from Eastern Interior, 2006* and 2030(million short tons)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
AL, MS, KY, TN
OH, IN, IL, MI, WI
WV, MD, DC, DE, VA,NC, SC, GA, FL
MN, IA, ND,SD, NE, MO,KS
2006*AEO2008 RefHigh Oil and Gas PriceHigh Coal CostLieberman-Warner
East South Central:
East North Central:
South Atlantic:
West North Central:
•Volumes with unknown origin or unknown destination are not shown. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Projected volumes of less than 1 million tons are not included.
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Distribution of coal from WY PRB, 2006* and 2030(million short tons)
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
AL, MS, KY, TN
OH, IN, IL, MI, WI
WV, MD, DC, DE, VA, NC, SC, GA,FL
MN, IA, ND,SD, NE, MO, KS
CO, UT, AZ, NM, MT, WY, ID
TX, LA, OK, AR
NY, PA, NJ
AK, HI, WA, OR, CA
2006*
AEO2008 Ref
High Oil andGas PriceHigh CoalCostLieberman-Warner
East South Central:East North Central:
West North Central:
Pacific:
South Atlantic:
Mountain:West South Central:Middle Atlantic:
*Volumes with unknown origin, or unknown destination are not shown. Source: EIA-6 “Coal Distribution Data”. Projected volumes of less than 1 million tons are not included.
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Contact Information
• Energy Information Administration• www.eia.doe.gov