effective risk response planningeffective risk response ... – advanced risk management...
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Effective Risk Response PlanningEffective Risk Response PlanningEffective Risk Response Planning
PMI – New HampshireFebruary 18th 2004
PMI – New HampshirePMI – New HampshireFebruary 18th 2004February 18th 2004
OverviewOverviewOverview
• Introduction• RISK SIG Overview• Root Cause Projection Technique
PMI Risk SIG
Bruce Chadbourne, PMPDirector – Region 1Eastern Americas
Your PMI RISK SIGYour PMI RISK SIGYour PMI RISK SIG
• Great NH Presence and Resources!– Chuck Bosler, Chairman
• Recent Projects• Volunteer Opportunities• Upcoming Symposia
HighlightsHighlightsHighlights
• Membership – 1,600 1,717 and growing• Great Newsletter• International reach – global representation
– European Congress 2004, Czech Republic
Project Risk SymposiumMay 16-19, 2004
Disney Grand Californian HotelAnaheim CA
Project Risk SymposiumMay 16-19, 2004
Disney Grand Californian HotelAnaheim CA
Previous Events• Long Beach, Sept 12-14, 2002
– Barry Boehm, RobertCharette
• Hampton Roads SymposiumMay 21, 2001
Future Events• Washington DC 2004
(TBA)• Brazil• Australia
Risk Management NewsletterRisk Management NewsletterRisk Management NewsletterFebruary 2004
• “Advanced Quantitative Schedule RiskAnalysis” (Hulett)
• “The Two Faces of Risk Management”(Hillson)
• “When ‘Right’ Risk Management is Not the‘Right’ Risk Management” (Peterson)
• Symposia announcements
www.risksig.com
Risk SIG WebsiteRisk SIG WebsiteRisk SIG Website
• Risk Tool Survey• Bibliography• Projects
– Risk Handbook– Advanced Risk Management Certification– Risks for Globalized Projects– Universal risks
Volunteer OpportunitiesVolunteer OpportunitiesVolunteer Opportunities
• Risk Handbook• Event Planning• Website projects• Liaison
Earn those PDU’s !
How may We serve You?How may We serve You?How may We serve You?
• Visit us !• Join us !• Questions?
Email: [email protected]
Introducing…
Paula K. Martin,Martin Training Associates
Paula K. Martin,Paula K. Martin,Martin Training AssociatesMartin Training Associates
www.martintraining.net
•Simple Steps
•Flexible Approach
•Collaborative
•PMBOK®Compliant
•“FAQ” /Diagnostics
•Risk Metrics
www.appliedriskassessment.com
Why Risk Management?Why Risk Management?Why Risk Management?Resume:• Navy background – Nuclear• Systems / Software Engineering• Integrated Product Development• Project Support Office initiative
How about You?How about You?How about You?
Significant Risk Role or Interest?
Root Cause Projection Techniquefor Risk Management
Root Cause Projection TechniqueRoot Cause Projection Techniquefor Risk Managementfor Risk Management
Bruce C. Chadbourne, PMPDirector, Risk SIG Region 1Merrimack, NH
Bruce C. Chadbourne, PMPBruce C. Chadbourne, PMPDirector, Risk SIG Region 1Director, Risk SIG Region 1Merrimack, NHMerrimack, NH
Risk ManagementLesson-learned from Androcles
Risky project execution
Untangling another fine mess
So?• Risk Management• Major pitfall - ineffective mitigation
How about a practical,down-to-earth suggestion?
Background of... Root Cause Analysis
• Simple example– Requires fuel, heat and oxygen.
• Decision Systems, Inc. “Reason”• Basic technique:
– “WHY?” or “WHAT CHANGED?”
Eureka
Defining and Applying theTechnique
• Almost that easy...– Simple things work the best– Quickly understood and applied
• Let’s provide a framework...– using PMBOK Risk processes
Operational Test Fails
Project Canceled !
1. RISK IdentificationLook into the future
What headline don’t YOUwant to see?
Company stock pricedrops 78%Company stock price
drops 78% Oh No !Company stock pricedrops 78%
Accident AnalysisTop Down approach
N/C
N/C
N/C
N/C N/C
Worker handling chemicals perassigned job
(P)
Janitor performingcleaning
(P)
Janitor temporarilyassigned
(P)
Supervisor failedto brief Janitor
(C)
Janitor not briefedprior to shift
(C)
Janitor unfamiliarwith safetyprocedures
(C)
Janitor ignoreswarning light
(C)
Janitor enters area,bumping into worker
(C)
Worker spills chemicals(C)
Safety instructionsrequire goggles, apron,
and gloves(I)
Worker receivedrequired training
(I)
Worker has seenothers ignore
the rules(C)
Worker did not thinkit necessary
(C)
Worker did not adhereto safety rules
(C)
Worker not wearingsafety equipment
(P)
Worker injured by caustic chemicals(End result)
Why?Why didn’t the supervisor do his job?•Too busy?•New policy required?•Need refresher training?
Why?Why are workers ignoring the rules?•Inadequate supervision?•Need for spot-audits?•Design a safety interlock?
2. RISK AnalysisFirst pass, using the RCPT
Contractordelivers late
(C)
Communicationbreakdown
(P)
Staff is wornout
(P)
Contractor’sproduct has
bugs
(C)
11th Hour Crisis(End Result)
the RISK “HEADLINE”...
(C) - Causes
(P) - Permitting Conditions
Key
2. RISK AnalysisDig down, follow each path
Contractordelivers late
(C)
Contractor’sproduct has bugs
(C)
11th Hour Crisis
We’re lategiving them
requirements
(C)
Our job is nottheir highest
priority
(P)
They cannotbuy an
obsolete part
(C)
Why?
Why?
Why?
Why?
3. RISK Response PlanningDig down, follow each path
Contractordelivers late
(C)
Contractor’sproduct has bugs
(C)
11th Hour Crisis
We’re lategiving them
requirements(C)
Our job is nottheir highest
priority(P)
They cannotbuy an
obsolete part(C)
Detailed Responses / Opportunities
How do we recover? Offer incentive ? Can we help ?
Generalized Risk
Contractordelivers late
(C)
Contractor’sproduct has bugs
(C)
11th Hour Crisis
We’re lategiving them
requirements(C)
Our job is nottheir highest
priority(P)
They cannotbuy an
obsolete part(C)
Keep score on successes and setbacks
Preempted !4. RISK Monitor & ControlVisual tool for tracking progress
Examples
Lackedskill?
Attitude:Careless,Carefree
Inattentive
Took unnecessaryrisk?
Blindsided?(not my fault)
Accident occurs
Unaware of needto insure
Insurance tooexpensive
Procrastination
Failed to buyinsurance
Insufficient InsuranceCoverage
No planto save
No savingsdiscipline
Spent savingselsewhere
Nosavings
Discipline?
Did not reduceother spendingafter accident
Inadequate savingsbuffer
Accident requires large, or unplannedexpenses
(medical, vehicle, home, litigation)(possibly lost income)
RCPT Summary ... How do I get started?
Question:What MIGHT happen?Why?Therefore:What can be done NOW?
Extend the Reach of Your Headlights
ROOT
CAUSE
PROJECTION
TECHNIQUE
QUESTIONS?Root Cause Projection Technique
for Risk Management
QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?Root Cause Projection TechniqueRoot Cause Projection Technique
for Risk Managementfor Risk Management
Bruce C. Chadbourne, PMPDirector, Risk SIG Region 1Merrimack, NH
Bruce C. Chadbourne, PMPBruce C. Chadbourne, PMPDirector, Risk SIG Region 1Director, Risk SIG Region 1Merrimack, NHMerrimack, NH