pmp study guide chapter 6: risk planning. chapter 6 risk planning planning for risks plan risk...
TRANSCRIPT
PMP Study Guide
Chapter 6: Risk Planning
Chapter 6 Risk Planning
• Planning for Risks
• Plan Risk Management
• Identifying Potential Risk
• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques
• Quantifying Risks
• Developing a Risk Response Plan
Planning for Risks
• Risks are events that pose opportunities or threats to the project
• Risk is uncertainty—the more that’s known about risk, the better
Chapter 6 Risk Planning
• Planning for Risks
• Plan Risk Management
• Identifying Potential Risk
• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques
• Quantifying Risks
• Developing a Risk Response Plan
Plan Risk Management
• The Plan Risk Management process determines and documents how to plan for risks
• The Plan Risk Management process establishes an agreed-upon basis for evaluating risk
• Determine and document stakeholder risk tolerance levels
Chapter 6 Risk Planning
• Planning for Risks
• Plan Risk Management
• Identifying Potential Risk
• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques
• Quantifying Risks
• Developing a Risk Response Plan
Identifying Potential Risk
• Budgets/funding• Schedules• Scope or
requirements changes
• Project plan• Technical issues• Personnel
issues
• Hardware• Contracts• Political
concerns• Business risk• Legal risk• Environmental
risk
Identifying Potential Risk
• Tools and techniques of the Identify Risk process:– Documentation reviews– Information-gathering techniques– Checklist analysis– Assumptions analysis– Diagramming techniques– SWOT analysis– Expert judgment
Identifying Potential Risk
• Information-gathering techniques include:– Brainstorming– Delphi technique– Nominal Group technique– Interviewing– Root cause identification
• SWOT analysis
Identifying Potential Risk
• Diagramming techniques include:– Cause-and-effect
• Fishbone diagram or Ishikawa diagram
– Flowcharts– Influence diagrams
Identifying Potential Risk
• Risk register is the output of the Identify Risk process.
• Risk register should contain:– List of identified risks– List of potential resources
Chapter 6 Risk Planning
• Planning for Risks
• Risk Management Planning
• Identifying Potential Risk
• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques
• Quantifying Risks
• Developing a Risk Response Plan
Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques
• Risk probability and impact assessment
• Probability and impact matrix
• Risk data quality assessment
• Risk categorization
• Risk urgency assessment
• Expert judgment
Risk Impacts Rating Matrix
5.1
Probability and Impact Matrix
Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques
• Risk register is updated at the end of the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process with:– Risk ranking (or priority) for identified risks– Risks grouped by categories– Causes of risk– List of risks requiring near-term responses– List of risks for additional analysis and
response– Watch list of low-priority risks– Trends in qualitative risk analysis results
Chapter 5 Risk Planning
• Planning for Risks
• Risk Management Planning
• Identifying Potential Risk
• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques
• Quantifying Risks
• Developing a Risk Response Plan
Quantifying Risk
• Tools and techniques of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process include:– Data gathering and representation
techniques• Interviewing• Probability distributions
– Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques
– Expert judgment
Quantifying Risk
• Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques– Sensitivity analysis– Expected monetary value analysis– Decision tree analysis– Modeling and simulation
Quantifying RiskSensitivity Analysis
• Tornado diagram
Quantifying RiskDecision Tree Analysis
Chapter 6 Risk Planning
• Planning for Risks
• Risk Management Planning
• Identifying Potential Risk
• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques
• Quantifying Risks
• Developing a Risk Response Plan
Developing a Risk Response Plan
Strategies for Negative Risks:
• Avoid• Transfer• Mitigate• Accept
Strategies for Positive Risk:
• Exploit• Share• Enhance
Developing a Risk Response Plan
• Plan Risk Response Outputs– Risk register updates– Risk-related contract decisions– Project management plan updates– Project document updates
Developing a Risk Response Plan
• Risk Register contains:– Prioritized list of risks– Risk ranking– Risk owners and responsibility– Outputs from Perform Qualitative
Analysis– Agreed-upon response strategies– Actions needed to implement
response plans . . .
Developing a Risk Response Plan
• Risk register continued:– Cost and schedule activities
needed to implement risk responses
– Contingency plans– Fallback plans– List of residual and secondary risks– Contingency reserves
Chapter 6 Summary
• Risk management plan• Where potential risks may occur• Tools and techniques to identify risks• Qualitative techniques• Quantitative techniques• Strategies for negative risks• Strategies for positive risks• Risk register contents