eduardo mondlane universityinstitute for water resource, rhodes university phd proposal-progress...
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![Page 1: Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University PhD Proposal-Progress Agostinho Vilanculos Supervisors: - Prof. Denis Hughes](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649dda5503460f94ad1198/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Agostinho Vilanculos
Supervisors: - Prof. Denis Hughes (IWR, Rhodes University, SA)
- Dr. Elonio Muiwane (Eduardo Mondlane University, Moz)
Balancing water for improving multireservoir system Operation using hydrological information: Integrated hydrological modeling special focus on Zambezi river basin
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Outline
Background - Related Previous Studies - Geographic Location - Surface Water Potential
MethodologyPreliminary findsFurther Studs
Questions and comments
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
PREVIOUS STUDIES IN THE STUDY AREA
Existing and applied Water Resources Systems: - Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting (Jessen, 2001);- Flood Watch Model (DHI, 2009);- Comparison of two model approaches in the
Zambezi river basin with regard to model reliability and identifiably (Winsemius et al., 2006);
- Impact of climatic Changes on hydrology (Asante and Vilanculos, 2009).
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
BACKGROUND: Problem and Motivation
Problem statement:• 30 million in 2030 70 million• Pop. growth will increase water
demand for agric. And energy• 80% population lives on rainfed
agriculture• Irrigation potential more than 3
million ha only 5% are developed• Poor ground hydro-climatic
monitoring infra-structures (Tumbare, 2004; Asante, 2007; FAO, 2007)
Motivation: GIS-RS-Hydrologic Model tools
Geographic Location
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Water Resources Potential - Climatic and Hydrology
Hydrology: River and Discharge• Lukulo river - 4.1 km3/year• Zambezi river - 33.5 km3/year• Kafue river - 10 km3/year• Luangwa river - 22 km3/year• Shiri River - 16 km3/year• Kabora Bassa lake - 77.5 km3/year • Malawi Lake - 29 km3/year• Shiri Out flow to Moz- 12.5 km3/year
Rainfall: Range from 570mm/year (Simi Arid Area central to 2190mm/year in East and North
Source: (Hungwe et. al;., 2000FAO, 2007 Tumbare, 2004).
Countries Irrigation Potential (ha)
Area under irrigation (ha)
% of Area under irrigation (ha)
Water Requirement total (km³/year)
Angola 700 000 2 000 0.3 9. 50
Namibia 11 000 6 142 55.8 0.255
Botswana 1 080 0 0.0 0.006
Zimbabwe 165 400 49 327 29.8 1.737
Zambia 422 000 41400 9.8 5.064
Tanzania 0 0 0.0 0.000
Malawi 160 900 28 000 17.4 2.092
Mozambique
1700 000 20 000 1.2 18 700
Total 3 160 380 146 860 4.65 18718.65
Irrig. Potential, Water Requirement and area under irrigation
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Water R. Potential - Hydraulic Infrastructure
Source: Zambezi River Authority
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
AIMS OF THE STUDY
• Identify the interlinking between up and downstream WRMS.
• Identify the relationship to be made between power generation and flood impacts downstream.
• To develop a or no coordinated methodology for daily/monthly operating strategies in the Zambezi River Basin.
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
METHODOLOGY
Identification of current WRMS and Selection of an existing WRMS FrameworkUse of a selected WRMS for:
- Delineation of preliminary boundaries- Calculation of daily soil water balance and flow- Selection of the monitoring and calibration sites- Run preliminary model in various scenarios (with and
without Dam discharges connected) and predicting the impacts downstreamFlood Risk Analysis at Downstream Statistics Analysis
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
CASE STUDIES
1. Existing Water Resources Management Systems in the
Zambezi River Basin
- Quest.: What are the WRMS existing in the Study area?
2. Hydrological Scale in Hydrological Models
- Quest.: How do different scale hydrological models link with each other?
3. Balancing water for power generation and for other users downstream
- Quest.: What is the role of implementing of a muiltreservoir operation system on the integrated river basin management ?
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
EXPECTED RESULTS
• Doctoral thesis in hydrology.• Knowledge on downstream implication from
upstream operational reservoir in the Zambezi basin.
• Knowledge on definition of optimal hydropower reservoir operation.
• Guidelines on how well the multi-reservoir systems in series and parallels can be operated in beneficial main through integrated water resources system framework
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
Preliminary Results (1): WRMS- Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting
• Manual method of counting takes a lot of time
• it does not gives the quantity of rain for each sub-basin or for the all basin
Opportunity: The GIS Spatial Analyst tool offer an excellent functionality
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
Preliminary Results (2): WRMS - Mike Flood Watch Model
• Advantage: Use of observed data
• Disadvantages: - Designed for small catchments- Depends of the reader - Power Coverage (rain gauges)
- Extreme events ( Floods and
Droughts)Floods – Destroy infra-structures
Droughts - concentrate in small rills away from the river gauges Opportunities: RFE Satellite Data
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
Preliminary Results (3) : Potential Conceptual Model Produced
• Delineation of model boundaries
• Preliminary calculation of flows
http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/hydro ftp://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/.
http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/adds/africa .
DEM Soils Data Land Cover/use Rainfall Evapotranspiration
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106 121 136Time
Q (
m3/s
)
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
PRELIMINARY RESULTS (4): SELECTION OF CALIBRATION AND MONITORING SITES
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
Further Studs• Input data validation results are underway
• Model calibration and preliminary results are
underway
• Creation of Dam Links Modules- Depending on
historical data of upstream countries
• Flood Risk Analysis
• Hydrological Stochastic analysis
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Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Thank you
Questions and Comments?