economic intelligence...2020/01/19 · economic intelligence: u.s. consumer confidence index of...

E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE:U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

WEEK OF 01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020


Morning Consult uses the same 5 questions that the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers uses to measure consumer sentiment.1

QUEST IO N #1: PER SO NA L F INA NCES – CUR R ENT CO NDIT IO N

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

QUEST IO N #2: PER SO NA L F INA NCES – 12 MO NT H EX PECT A T IO NS

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

QUEST IO N #3: BUSINESS CO NDIT IO NS – 12 MO NT H EX PECT A T IO NS

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

QUEST IO N #4: BUSINESS CO NDIT IO NS – 5 YEA R EX PECT A T IO NS

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

QUEST IO N #5: CUR R ENT BUYING CO NDIT IO NS

About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

M O N T H LY: U N I V E R S I T Y O F M I C H I G A N

The Survey of Consumers is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 600 cellular phone interviews with adults living in households in the coterminous United States. Preliminary results are released mid-month based on the first two weeks of interviews, which reflects about two thirds of the full monthly sample.

D A I LY: M O R N I N G C O N S U LT

The Economic Intelligence Survey is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 7,500 daily and 210,000 monthly online interviews with adults living in households across the entire United States. Final results are released daily, which allows for unprecedented analysis of breaking news across geographic regions, economic variables, and demographic characteristics.

M E T H O D O L O G Y

Overall, the methodology used to measure trends in the economic expectations of consumers is in a state of flux. Rapid changes in technology and social media are unlikely to slow anytime soon. It is hard to imagine that in 10 or 20 years the measurement methodology will not have been transformed in some as yet undetermined ways. The fast pace of technological and social change must be confronted with a robust research methodology that preserves a consistent series of high quality measurements on economic expectations.

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN PROFESSOR RICHARD CURTIN 7TH JOINT EC / OECD WORKSHOP: NOVEMBER 30, 2015

WHY WE CR EA T ED MO R NING CO NSULT ECO NO MIC INT ELLIGENCE

Frequency + Scale = Key Improvements

Same Standard Questions Used to Calculate U.S. Consumer Confidence Indices

1. See University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, "Index Calculations.". Available at https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770 2


T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y

Key TakeawaysWeekly Dashboard2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)6-Week Snapshot: U.S. Daily Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Indices Over Time

C O N S U M E R I N D I C E SIndex of Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC)

I N D I V I D U A L Q U E S T I O N S

Personal Finances: Current ConditionsPersonal Finances: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 5 Year ExpectationsCurrent Buying Conditions

M E T H O D O L O G Y

6789

10

142740

5356596265

69

Goods-Producing Industries (Weekly ICS)Goods-Producing Industries (Monthly ICS)

Consumer and Investor Confidence

1112

13


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



K E Y TA K EAWAYS(Week of 01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)

• No Boost to Consumer Confidence Following U.S. - China Agreement – Consumers’ net reaction to last week’s economic news was moderately positive across most demographic groups. Despite daily consumer confidence falling on Thursday and Friday following the Wednesday signing ceremony, upbeat manufacturing and housing data drove consumer confidence higher over the weekend. Morning Consult’s weekly Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) increased to 113.9 for the week ending Jan. 19. (Slides 7 and 9)

• Farmers Grow More Skeptical – China’s commitment to purchase $32 billion of U.S. agriculture products fell flat, as agriculture confidence declined for the fourth straight week. January’s monthly reading will mark the first month-over-month decrease since the height of the trade wars in August 2019. The fall in confidence in the agriculture sector is in contrast to the rising confidence from the general population and workers in manufacturing and construction. In short, the decrease in agriculture confidence reflects industry-specific conditions. (Slides 11 and 12)

• Investors Return to Reality – Beginning in early December, the rate of year-over-year growth in the S&P 500 outpaced consumer confidence gains. While investors and consumers view the economy differently, the long-term prospects for corporate profitability depend on the strength of consumers. Investors and consumers currently share positive economic outlooks, boding well for continued growth in consumer spending and corporate profits. (Slide 13)

6


W E E K LY DA S H B OA R D(Week of 01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)

Value Weekly Change* Intraweek Volatility 30-Day Trend

ICS (Consumer Sentiment) 113.9 ↑ 1.1 Elevated Increasing

ICE (Future Expectations) 114.5 ↑ 1.3 Stable Increasing

ICC (Current Conditions) 113.1 ↑ 0.8 Elevated Increasing

Personal Finances: Current Conditions 104.8 ↑ 1.1 Elevated Increasing

Personal Finances: 12 Month Expectations 130.1 ↑ 0.5 Stable Increasing

Business Conditions: 12 Month Expectations 113.7 ↑ 2.4 Stable Decreasing

Business Conditions: 5 Year Expectations 99.5 ↑ 0.9 Elevated Increasing

Current Buying Conditions 121.3 ↑ 0.5 Stable Decreasing

*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 7


10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

8/1/19: Trump confirms increase in tariffs on Chinese goods

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods3/1/18: U.S.

trade war begins

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-1 8 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-1 9 Dec-19 Jan-20

Index of Consumer Sentiment (Jan 1, 2018 – Jan 19, 2020)

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods

10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

3/1/19: U.S. trade war begins

8/14/19: 10-2 yield curve inverts

11/15/19: All yield curves uninvert

10/11/19: US announces “phase one” trade deal with China

8/1/19: Trump confirms tariff increase on Chinese goods

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

Mor

ning

Con

sult

Inde

x (O

nlin

e)

Morning Consult Daily Morning Consult Monthly

7,500/day 210,000/month

University of Michigan Monthly

600/month

Michigan Index (Phone)

Note: There are three primary reasons why Morning Consult and the University of Michigan appear on different axes: (1) Michigan deflates its values so that 1966 serves as its base year, which is not appropriate for Morning Consult’s data; (2) a higher percentage of survey respondents answer “Don’t Know” or “No Opinion” in Morning Consult’s Economic Intelligence Survey, thus providing a richer data set in terms of measuring respondents’ uncertainty; and (3) Morning Consult’s dramatically larger sample sizes reduce a mean-adjusted measure of variance.

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

01/02/20:US kills Iranian general

8


6-Week Snapshot Analysis: Daily U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

110.3

111.5

111.1110.6

111.4

111.5

112.7

111.4

113.2

112

111.4

112.9

111.2

112.3

112.3112.2

112

112.8112.8

112.2111.4111.1

111.6

112.8

111.8

112.8112.2

111.5

113.3113.9

113

112.8113.4

114

113.9114.7

115.2

113.9115 114.5

115.1115.9

114.7

114.9

113.4112.4

112.1111.6

112.7

113.8113.5

113.3

114.3

113.4

114.6

113.9

112.2

114.1114.8

106

109

113

117

94

96

100

102

11/22/1

9

11/25/1

9

11/28/1

9

12/01/1

9

12/04/1

9

12/07/1

9

12/10/1

9

12/13/1

9

12/16/1

9

12/19/1

9

12/22/1

9

12/25/1

9

12/28/1

9

12/31/1

9

01/03/2

0

01/06/2

0

01/09/2

0

01/12/2

0

01/15/2

0

01/18/2

0

Morning Consult Daily (7,500/day)

University of Michigan Monthly (600/month)

12/6/19: November jobs report beats expectations

12/13/19: US and China announce completion of “Phase One” trade deal

12/20/19: November household income gains beat expectations

01/08/20: President Trump announces U.S. “ready to embrace peace”

01/08/20: Iran counterstrikes bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops

01/15/20: U.S. and China sign phase one trade dealM

orni

ng C

onsu

lt In

dex

(Onl

ine)

Michigan Index (Phone)

9


CO N S U M E R I N D I C ES(7-Day Moving Average Over Past 365 Days)

100

105

110

115

120

Feb-2019

Mar-2019

Apr-2019

May-2019

Jun-2019

Jul-2019

Aug-2019

Sep-2019

Oct-2019

Nov-2019

Dec-2019

Jan-2020

ICC (Current Conditions) ICE (Future Expectations) ICS (Consumer Sentiment)

10


Monthly Confidence Across Goods-Producing IndustriesM

orni

ng C

onsu

lt M

onth

ly IC

S

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

11/1/18 12/1/18 1/1/19 2/1/19 3/1/19 4/1/19 5/1/19 6/1/19 7/1/19 8/1/19 9/1/19 10/1/19 11/1/19 12/1/19 1/1/20

Adults Agriculture Construct ion Manufacturing

11


Weekly Confidence Across Goods-Producing Industries

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

9/8/19 9/22/19 10/6/19 10/20/19 11/3/19 11/17/19 12/1/19 12/15/19 12/29/19 1/12/20

Adults Agriculture Construct ion Manufacturing

Mor

ning

Con

sult

Wee

kly

ICS

12


Consumer and Investor Confidence

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

95

100

105

110

115

120

1/2/18

2/2/18

3/2/18

4/2/18

5/2/18

6/2/18

7/2/18

8/2/18

9/2/18

10/2/18

11/2/18

12/2/18

1/2/19

2/2/19

3/2/19

4/2/19

5/2/19

6/2/19

7/2/19

8/2/19

9/2/19

10/2/19

11/2/19

12/2/19

1/2/20

Mor

ning

Con

sult

S&P 500 (Change from Year Ago)

Morning Consult Daily ICS

S&P 500

Source: Morning Consult and FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13


INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)



I N D E X O F CO N S U M E R S E N T I M E N T ( I C S ) OV E R T I M E(Weekly)

W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W

113.9 114.8 104.5(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)

105.3104.5

106.7

109.4108.6

109.7109.7

110.5

109.5110.3

111110.7 110.7

111111.7

112.6

111.1110.3

110 110 109.9110.4

111.4111

112.3

111.7111.8 111.8

111.7

109.6

107.7

107.3107

107.7108.3

107.7

108.5108.4

108.2 108.4109.1 109.3

110.2110.8

111.3111.8

112 112.1

112.7

114114.8

112.8

113.9

105

110

115

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/1

9

01/01/2

0

15


K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)


*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.

Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low

Demo: Age

18-24 115.2 ↑ 1.5 115.8 108.2

25-34 117.0 ↑ 0.1 119.5 110.4

35-44 117.1 ↑ 1.8 117.1 105.0

45-54 113.1 ↑ 0.9 114.1 103.2

55-64 110.3 ↑ 0.3 113.5 101.0

65+ 111.6 ↑ 1.9 111.6 100.7

Demo: Gender

Male 119.8 ↑ 1.2 119.8 110.5

Female 108.5 ↑ 1.0 110.2 98.9

16






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 107.4 ↑ 0.4 108.6 99.1

$50K-$100K 120.6 ↑ 1.1 121.1 111.0

$100K+ 127.6 ↑ 3.0 127.6 116.0

$100K-$150K 127.6 ↑ 3.8 127.6 115.4

$150-$200K 127.0 ↑ 1.6 128.6 114.3

$200-$250K 126.4 ↑ 1.6 129.6 110.6

$250K+ 130.5 ↑ 1.1 131.8 115.7

17






Demo: Education

Less Than College 113.0 ↑ 0.8 114.2 104.2

Bachelor's Degree 117.1 ↑ 1.5 117.3 106.0

Post-Grad 113.7 ↑ 2.0 113.7 102.5

Demo: Race/Ethnicity

African American 111.3 ↑ 1.2 113.4 98.5

Hispanic 114.3 ↑ 0.7 116.1 105.0

Other 108.8 ↑ 0.5 110.7 102.4

White 114.5 ↑ 1.2 115.1 105.4

18






Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)

Educational Services 113.6 ↓ 1.2 116.4 99.9

Financial Activities 126.6 ↓ 1.0 127.6 112.9

Health Care 116.9 ↓ 1.3 119.4 107.1

Information 122.7 ↑ 2.4 122.7 111.2

Leisure and Hospitality 111.3 ↑ 0.6 119.9 98.3

Professional and Business Services 119.8 ↓ 0.4 120.6 107.9

Real Estate and Property 129.2 ↑ 1.1 134.1 114.2

Retail Trade 119.4 ↑ 2.6 119.4 108.1

Transportation 123.1 ↓ 0.6 127.5 112.3

19






Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)

Agriculture 119.9 ↓ 2.9 130.8 109.6

Construction 129.1 ↑ 3.6 131.0 118.1

Manufacturing 126.5 ↑ 1.5 127.3 117.0

Demo: Employment Industry (Other)

Defense 128.3 ↑ 4.4 137.7 108.1

Other 116.5 ↑ 1.8 116.7 108.7

Public Administration 122.3 ↓ 0.2 127.5 97.1

20






Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder

Total 125.7 ↑ 2.4 125.7 114.3

Businesses with 1-5 Employees 119.5 ↑ 2.0 120.4 110.2


Businesses with 21-100 Employees 132.1 ↓ 0.5 139.0 113.9

Businesses with More than 101 Employees 151.4 ↓ 4.7 157.5 122.5

Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development

Works in Sales or Business Development 124.3 ↑ 3.8 124.3 114.0

21






Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics

Total 122.4 ↑ 1.0 122.4 112.7





Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 119.1 ↓ 3.5 123.8 110.3

Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 124.6 ↓ 0.6 126.0 108.7

22






Demo: Housing Assets

Homeowners 117.9 ↑ 1.6 118.2 107.4

Renters 109.5 ↑ 0.4 110.7 101.6

Other 104.9 ↑ 1.2 107.0 97.6

Demo: Equity Market Investments

$50K+ 124.3 ↑ 3.6 124.3 111.8

Less than $50K 118.3 ↓ 0.1 119.7 109.3

None 108.0 ↑ 0.4 109.6 99.9

Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments

Total 125.3 ↑ 3.6 125.3 112.6

23






Demo: Daily Media Consumers

The New York Times 120.3 ↑ 11.9 120.3 92.4

The Wall Street Journal 130.4 ↑ 6.4 132.1 108.6

Fox News Channel 141.4 ↓ 0.2 144.9 127.6

CNN 97.5 ↓ 1.1 105.1 90.4

MSNBC 100.4 ↑ 7.4 102.5 85.2

Twitter 119.1 ↑ 1.3 119.1 108.9

Facebook 115.6 ↑ 1.3 116.3 105.4

24






Demo: Political Ideology

Conservative 137.7 ↑ 0.4 138.5 128.2

Liberal 96.2 ↑ 1.1 97.3 87.3

Moderate 108.8 ↑ 2.0 109.2 99.2

Demo: Trump Approval

Approve 140.9 ↑ 0.8 141.6 134.5

Disapprove 93.0 ↑ 0.9 94.4 84.1

Demo: 2016 Presidential Election

Republican Donald Trump 143.5 ↑ 1.3 143.5 133.8

Democrat Hillary Clinton 92.0 ↑ 1.9 92.6 81.5

Someone Else 102.2 ↑ 2.8 102.6 92.6

25


F E D D I ST R I C TS(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)

ICS


Federal Reserve Districts

Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value105.0 to 110.2110.2 to 112.2112.2 to 116.3116.3 to 120.7

Districts Value Weekly Change*

52-Week High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 105.0 ↑ 1.1 107.0 97.6

New York (2) 110.0 ↓ 1.6 112.0 103.1

Philadelphia (3) 109.6 ↑ 0.3 113.0 101.2

Cleveland (4) 112.9 ↑ 1.5 112.9 103.5

Richmond (5) 117.2 ↑ 2.0 117.6 106.7

Atlanta (6) 120.7 ↑ 2.0 120.9 110.2

Chicago (7) 111.6 ↑ 0.7 113.4 102.3

St. Louis (8) 116.0 ↓ 0.3 117.8 106.0

Minneapolis (9) 110.2 ↑ 0.1 114.4 102.7

Kansas City (10) 113.0 ↑ 1.6 113.0 104.2

Dallas (11) 117.8 ↓ 0.6 119.8 108.2

San Francisco (12) 110.9 ↑ 1.4 112.0 101.3

26


INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)



I N D E X O F CO N S U M E R E X P EC TAT I O N S ( I C E ) OV E R T I M E(Weekly)


114.5 115.3 104.4(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)

105

104.4

106.7

110

108.8

109.7109.8

110.5

109.4110.2

110.9

110.2 110.4

110.9112

113.3

111.3110.3

109.9

110.1

109.7

110.4

111.4111

112.8112 112 112

111.6

109.6

107106.2 106.3

107.1107.8

107.1

108.1108.1

108.2108.1

109.4 109.6

111111.2

111.7112

112.6113

113.5

114.2

115.3

113.2

114.5

105

110

115

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/1

9

01/01/2

0

28






Demo: Age

18-24 116.9 ↑ 1.6 117.6 108.4

25-34 119.8 ↓ 0.3 122.4 112.3

35-44 119.8 ↑ 2.2 119.8 106.6

45-54 114.3 ↑ 1.2 116.0 104.3

55-64 109.3 ↑ 0.6 112.7 99.4

65+ 108.6 ↑ 2.2 108.6 97.3

Demo: Gender

Male 120.6 ↑ 1.2 120.6 110.3

Female 108.7 ↑ 1.4 110.8 98.7

29






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 109.4 ↑ 0.6 110.7 100.4

$50K-$100K 120.0 ↑ 1.4 120.3 109.2

$100K+ 124.5 ↑ 3.4 124.5 110.4

$100K-$150K 124.9 ↑ 4.0 124.9 110.3

$150-$200K 123.6 ↑ 2.6 124.7 108.1

$200-$250K 122.0 ↑ 4.3 124.8 103.4

$250K+ 125.2 ↓ 0.5 128.6 108.9

30






Demo: Education



Post-Grad 110.5 ↑ 2.1 110.8 97.8


African American 113.7 ↑ 2.2 115.8 98.3

Hispanic 115.8 ↑ 0.7 118.1 106.0

Other 109.0 ↑ 0.4 111.3 100.2

White 114.6 ↑ 1.3 115.2 105.1

31









Health Care 116.4 ↓ 1.5 120.7 105.5

Information 122.1 ↑ 3.5 122.1 108.6

Leisure and Hospitality 110.0 ↓ 2.2 122.6 95.5


Real Estate and Property 130.5 ↑ 2.1 134.4 112.4

Retail Trade 121.0 ↑ 2.1 121.0 108.2

Transportation 124.5 ↓ 1.6 130.8 112.8

32







Agriculture 122.8 ↓ 3.8 135.8 108.7

Construction 131.2 ↑ 2.1 133.9 119.6

Manufacturing 127.5 ↑ 1.5 127.7 115.3


Defense 127.4 ↑ 4.4 134.1 106.2

Other 117.0 ↑ 1.6 117.0 107.3

Public Administration 125.0 ↑ 2.9 129.8 96.1

33







Total 126.9 ↑ 2.1 126.9 114.3







34







Total 123.0 0.0 123.5 112.1







35







Homeowners 117.1 ↑ 1.8 117.5 106.2

Renters 111.5 ↑ 0.5 112.7 102.7

Other 108.5 ↑ 1.5 110.6 100.2


$50K+ 120.9 ↑ 4.2 120.9 107.1

Less than $50K 119.2 ↓ 0.1 120.6 108.9

None 110.3 ↑ 0.5 112.0 101.5


Total 121.8 ↑ 4.1 121.8 107.5

36









Fox News Channel 144.1 ↑ 1.9 146.4 130.0

CNN 94.7 ↓ 0.7 101.7 84.8

MSNBC 96.3 ↑ 8.9 98.1 79.0

Twitter 119.7 ↑ 1.9 119.7 107.7

Facebook 116.7 ↑ 1.4 117.5 105.8

37







Conservative 140.3 ↑ 0.2 141.3 130.9

Liberal 93.7 ↑ 1.4 94.7 83.1

Moderate 109.1 ↑ 2.8 109.1 98.6


Approve 144.8 ↑ 0.5 145.5 139.3

Disapprove 90.6 ↑ 1.5 91.8 80.3




Someone Else 100.0 ↑ 2.9 101.6 90.3

38


F E D D I ST R I C TS(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)

ICE



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value103.1 to 110.3110.3 to 112.2112.2 to 117.3117.3 to 122.4



Boston (1) 103.1 ↑ 0.1 105.7 95.5

New York (2) 110.5 0.0 112.2 102.3

Philadelphia (3) 109.8 ↑ 0.9 112.4 100.1

Cleveland (4) 113.0 ↑ 1.9 113.0 102.9

Richmond (5) 118.3 ↑ 2.9 118.5 106.4

Atlanta (6) 122.4 ↑ 2.3 122.4 111.5

Chicago (7) 110.8 ↑ 0.1 113.6 101.3

St. Louis (8) 117.0 ↓ 0.9 118.7 106.4

Minneapolis (9) 109.3 ↓ 1.4 114.0 99.8

Kansas City (10) 114.1 ↑ 1.7 114.1 104.8

Dallas (11) 119.8 ↑ 0.2 121.8 109.7

San Francisco (12) 111.4 ↑ 1.5 112.0 100.8

39


INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)



I N D E X O F C U R R E N T CO N D I T I O N S ( I C C ) OV E R T I M E(Weekly)


113.1 114.0 104.5(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)

105.8

104.5

106.6

108.5108.4

109.7109.7

110.4

109.8110.3

111.1111.4

111.1111.1

111.2111.6

110.8110.2

110.1109.8

110.2110.4

111.2 111111.6

111.2 111.4111.6 111.9

109.7

108.8109

108108.7

109.1

108.6

109.2

108.8108.2

108.9

108.7108.8 109.1

110.3 110.6

111.6 111.2

110.8

111.4

113.7 114

112.2113.1

102

105

108

111

114

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/1

9

01/01/2

0

41






Demo: Age

18-24 112.7 ↑ 1.3 114.6 107.4

25-34 112.7 ↑ 0.7 115.2 107.4

35-44 113.1 ↑ 1.3 113.1 102.5

45-54 111.3 ↑ 0.4 113.1 101.5

55-64 111.9 ↓ 0.3 114.6 103.5

65+ 116.0 ↑ 1.4 116.3 105.4

Demo: Gender

Male 118.4 ↑ 1.2 118.9 110.3

Female 108.0 ↑ 0.5 109.4 99.2

42






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 104.4 ↑ 0.2 105.4 97.1

$50K-$100K 121.5 ↑ 0.8 122.3 113.0

$100K+ 132.3 ↑ 2.4 132.3 122.2

$100K-$150K 131.5 ↑ 3.6 131.5 121.1

$150-$200K 132.0 0.0 136.3 121.1

$200-$250K 132.9 ↓ 2.5 136.9 121.5

$250K+ 138.6 ↑ 3.5 138.9 124.1

43






Demo: Education



Post-Grad 118.4 ↑ 1.7 118.4 108.3


African American 107.6 ↓ 0.4 109.9 98.8

Hispanic 112.1 ↑ 0.7 114.1 103.6

Other 108.5 ↑ 0.7 111.1 102.1

White 114.4 ↑ 1.0 114.9 105.7

44









Health Care 117.6 ↓ 0.9 118.5 109.4

Information 123.6 ↑ 0.8 124.2 113.7

Leisure and Hospitality 113.1 ↑ 4.8 117.6 102.4


Real Estate and Property 127.3 ↓ 0.5 133.8 115.7

Retail Trade 116.9 ↑ 3.4 118.1 106.9

Transportation 120.8 ↑ 0.9 123.2 110.3

45







Agriculture 115.5 ↓ 1.5 127.9 104.8

Construction 126.1 ↑ 5.7 127.5 115.7

Manufacturing 125.1 ↑ 1.6 127.1 118.1


Defense 129.8 ↑ 4.4 143.0 102.9

Other 115.8 ↑ 2.1 116.2 108.6

Public Administration 118.3 ↓ 4.7 130.8 96.5

46







Total 123.9 ↑ 2.9 123.9 112.2







47







Total 121.6 ↑ 2.5 121.6 113.7







48







Homeowners 119.1 ↑ 1.2 119.5 109.2

Renters 106.3 ↑ 0.2 107.7 99.9

Other 99.4 ↑ 0.8 101.6 93.7


$50K+ 129.3 ↑ 2.8 129.3 117.3

Less than $50K 116.9 ↓ 0.1 118.3 110.0

None 104.6 ↑ 0.2 106.0 97.4


Total 130.6 ↑ 2.7 130.6 118.6

49









Fox News Channel 137.4 ↓ 3.2 142.6 124.0

CNN 101.8 ↓ 1.7 110.2 96.5

MSNBC 106.5 ↑ 5.2 109.1 92.3

Twitter 118.3 ↑ 0.4 119.3 109.9

Facebook 113.9 ↑ 1.1 114.5 104.8

50







Conservative 133.9 ↑ 0.8 134.3 124.3

Liberal 100.1 ↑ 0.6 101.3 92.8

Moderate 108.3 ↑ 0.9 109.7 100.2


Approve 135.1 ↑ 1.2 135.6 127.2

Disapprove 96.5 0.0 98.2 89.7




Someone Else 105.4 ↑ 2.8 105.9 96.1

51


F E D D I ST R I C TS(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)

ICC



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value107.9 to 110.8110.8 to 112.7112.7 to 114.8114.8 to 118.2



Boston (1) 107.9 ↑ 2.6 109.5 100.9

New York (2) 109.2 ↓ 3.9 113.1 104.1

Philadelphia (3) 109.2 ↓ 0.5 113.9 101.9

Cleveland (4) 112.7 ↑ 0.9 113.3 104.3

Richmond (5) 115.5 ↑ 0.6 116.4 107.3

Atlanta (6) 118.2 ↑ 1.6 118.6 108.2

Chicago (7) 112.8 ↑ 1.6 113.1 103.8

St. Louis (8) 114.6 ↑ 0.5 116.5 103.8

Minneapolis (9) 111.5 ↑ 2.4 114.9 104.3

Kansas City (10) 111.2 ↑ 1.5 112.0 102.6

Dallas (11) 114.9 ↓ 1.7 116.8 106.0

San Francisco (12) 110.3 ↑ 1.3 112.1 102.1

52


PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



P E RS O N A L F I N A N C ES : C U R R E N T CO N D I T I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)


104.8 105.4 97.6(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)

98.9

97.6

98.9

100.2100

101.5

101.1

102.3

101.6 102

102.7

103.7

102.7103 103

103.3

102.7102.6

101.9 101.8102.5

102.6103.3

102.6

103.4

103103.2

103.7104.2

101.6

100.9

101.4

100

101.2

101.3

100.5

101.3100.8

100 100.699.8 99.7

99.8

101.3 100.6

102.1

101.2

101

101.8

104.9

105.4

103.7

104.8

97.5

100.0

102.5

105.0

107.5

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/1

9

01/01/2

054



PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 107.9 ↑ 2.3 111.7 102.5

25-34 107.3 ↑ 1.3 109.5 101.6

35-44 104.8 ↑ 0.9 105.7 97.3

45-54 102.2 ↑ 0.2 104.3 93.9

55-64 102.1 0.0 103.5 94.1

65+ 105.3 ↑ 2.0 105.4 93.3

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 93.7 ↑ 0.5 94.3 88.0

$50K-$100K 115.7 ↑ 1.4 115.8 108.1

$100K+ 129.1 ↑ 1.0 129.1 120.7

$100K-$150K 127.2 ↑ 2.1 127.2 119.2

$150-$200K 130.1 ↓ 0.8 132.3 118.9

$200-$250K 134.4 ↓ 4.2 138.6 118.8

$250K+ 136.5 ↑ 0.3 139.6 123.1

55


PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



P E RS O N A L F I N A N C ES : 1 2 M O N T H E X P EC TAT I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)


130.1 130.8 125.6(12/30/2019) (09/02/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)

127.4

126.5

127.2

128.9

127.7

128

127.8

128127.7

128.9

129.3

129.2

128.3

129.1

130.2130.5

128.8128.7

127.9128.6

127.9

126.9

128.4

128.2

129.9

128.8 128.8

128.5 128.6

127.8126.8

126.1

125.8 125.6

125.8

125.6

126.6

126.2

126.7

126.3

127.8127.4

128.4 128.7

129

127.9

128.8

129.5 129.5

129.4

130.8

129.6

130.1

125.0

127.5

130.0

132.5

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/1

9

01/01/2

057



PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 143.1 ↑ 1.0 144.6 136.3

25-34 145.1 ↓ 2.2 149.3 143.3

35-44 140.8 ↑ 0.6 141.0 134.1

45-54 130.0 ↓ 0.3 131.6 124.0

55-64 118.8 ↑ 1.0 121.9 113.2

65+ 110.5 ↑ 2.6 110.5 102.3

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 126.4 0.0 127.9 122.5

$50K-$100K 134.7 ↑ 1.6 134.7 127.8

$100K+ 136.3 ↓ 0.1 138.1 129.9

$100K-$150K 136.1 ↑ 0.3 138.1 130.0

$150-$200K 137.9 ↑ 0.9 142.0 128.9

$200-$250K 137.6 ↑ 3.2 142.0 127.3

$250K+ 132.1 ↓ 8.8 141.2 126.6

58


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



B U S I N ES S CO N D I T I O N S : 1 2 M O N T H E X P EC TAT I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)


113.7 114.5 98.8(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)

98.998.8

102.3

106.7

105.5

106.9

107.1

108.4

107108

109

107.8

108.7109.2

110.2

112.5

109.6

107.4107.5

107.1 107

109.1

109.9109.4

110.5110.7 110.9

111.3

109.8

106.8

103.1

101.9102.4

103.7104.8

104.1

105.2105.2

104.8105.4

106.5107.5

108.9 109.3

110.2 110.9111.3

112113.1

114114.5

111.3

113.7

100

105

110

115

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/1

9

01/01/2

060



BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 111.8 ↑ 2.4 113.3 101.1

25-34 113.9 ↑ 2.1 116.0 101.8

35-44 115.0 ↑ 3.3 115.0 96.5

45-54 113.3 ↑ 3.2 114.4 98.7

55-64 111.7 ↑ 1.6 115.2 96.1

65+ 115.8 ↑ 2.1 115.8 98.8

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 108.4 ↑ 1.8 110.1 95.2

$50K-$100K 119.1 ↑ 1.9 119.2 103.5

$100K+ 125.1 ↑ 5.9 125.1 104.3

$100K-$150K 125.9 ↑ 7.2 125.9 103.7

$150-$200K 122.6 ↑ 3.5 126.0 101.2

$200-$250K 121.3 ↑ 4.2 124.0 94.7

$250K+ 129.0 ↑ 3.4 130.7 102.3

61


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



B U S I N ES S CO N D I T I O N S : 5 Y EA R E X P EC TAT I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)


99.5 100.6 88.0(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)

88.8

88

90.6

94.4

93.294.1

94.395.1

93.4

93.894.4

93.7 94.194.5

95.8

96.9

95.6

94.894.4

94.5

94.3

95.2

96

95.3

97.9

96.7

96.4 96.396.3

94.1

91

90.6 90.8

91.992.7

91.792.4

92.993.1

92.6

93.893.9

95.695.6

95.997.2

97.797.4

97.9

99.2

100.6

98.6

99.5

90

95

100

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/1

9

01/01/2

063



BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 95.9 ↑ 1.6 97.4 87.2

25-34 100.5 ↓ 0.7 102.5 89.4

35-44 103.5 ↑ 2.7 103.5 87.0

45-54 99.7 ↑ 0.7 102.1 87.6

55-64 97.3 ↓ 0.7 101.0 86.2

65+ 99.5 ↑ 1.9 100.0 89.7

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 93.3 ↑ 0.1 95.2 82.9

$50K-$100K 106.2 ↑ 0.8 106.9 94.3

$100K+ 112.0 ↑ 4.2 112.0 96.2

$100K-$150K 112.7 ↑ 4.4 112.7 96.4

$150-$200K 110.4 ↑ 3.4 110.7 92.1

$200-$250K 107.3 ↑ 5.5 114.1 84.6

$250K+ 114.4 ↑ 3.8 116.3 95.5

64


CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



C U R R E N T B U Y I N G CO N D I T I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)


121.3 122.5 111.5(12/23/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)

112.7

111.5

114.2

116.7 116.7

118118.4118.5

117.9118.6

119.4119.2

119.5

119.3

119.5 120

118.8

117.8

118.3

117.8 118118.3

119.2119.3

119.9

119.4

119.5

119.5119.5

117.8

116.8

116.6116 116.1

116.9116.7

117.1 116.7

116.4117.1

117.5117.9

118.4

119.3

120.7121 121.2

120.6

121

122.5 122.5

120.8

121.3

110

115

120

125

02/01/1

9

03/01/1

9

04/01/1

9

05/01/1

9

06/01/1

9

07/01/1

9

08/01/1

9

09/01/1

9

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/1

9

01/01/2

066



CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 117.4 ↑ 0.2 118.6 109.9

25-34 118.2 ↑ 0.2 121.0 110.3

35-44 121.4 ↑ 1.7 121.4 107.7

45-54 120.4 ↑ 0.6 121.9 109.1

55-64 121.7 ↓ 0.5 125.8 112.9

65+ 126.7 ↑ 0.8 127.1 117.4

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 115.0 ↓ 0.2 116.6 106.1

$50K-$100K 127.3 ↑ 0.1 128.9 117.8

$100K+ 135.5 ↑ 3.9 136.2 123.2

$100K-$150K 135.8 ↑ 5.0 135.8 121.7

$150-$200K 134.0 ↑ 0.9 141.1 123.2

$200-$250K 131.4 ↓ 0.9 137.8 120.1

$250K+ 140.8 ↑ 6.6 140.8 121.7

67


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Sampling Method

Morning Consult Economic Intelligence interviews about 7,500 adults per day in the US. The interviews are conducted online through multiple nationally recognized vendors. Morning Consult uses a stratified sampling process based on age and gender to reach a broad, nationally representative audience.

Survey Questions

Survey respondents answer the same five questions:

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

Data Processing

The data are then weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region according to US Census data. Weekly results aggregate daily surveys conducted from Monday through Sunday. Monthly results aggregate daily surveys conducted during the calendar month.

Relative Score and Index Calculations

The relative scores for each of the five questions reflect the percent of favorable replies minus the percent of unfavorable replies plus 100. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is a simple average of all five relative scores. The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 2, 3 and 4. Finally, the Index of Current Conditions (ICC) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 1 and 5.

Intraweek Volatility and 30-Day Trend

Intraweek Volatility compares the day-to-day volatility within a given week to average intraweek volatility. “Stable” weeks are those with average or below average volatility. “Elevated” weeks are those with above average volatility. The 30-Day Trend captures the slope of the line of best fit for the past 30 days of smoothed daily data. All positive slopes are considered increasing trends, and all negative slopes are decreasing trends.

METHODOLOGY

69


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