draft report - torino process - eastern partnership and russia
TRANSCRIPT
TORINO PROCESS REGIONAL REPORTEASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES AND RUSSIAN FEDERATIONDRAFT NOVEMBER 2012
The contents of this draft paper are the sole responsibility of the ETF and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EU institutions. © European Training Foundation, 2012
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TORINO PROCESS REGIONAL REPORT KEY TRENDS AND ISSUES FOR FURTHER VET DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Draft prepared by Manfred Wallenborn ETF, November 2012
The Torino Process is a participatory process leading to an evidence-based analysis of vocational education and training (VET) policies in a given country. In 2010 the European Training Foundation (ETF) launched the first round of the Torino Process, in which 22 of its 29 partner countries participated. In May 2011, the ETF organised a conference entitled ‘The Torino Process – Learning from Evidence’, which brought together over 250 stakeholders from all ETF partner countries, EU institutions, EU Member States and the international community. In the final declaration of this conference, the participants welcomed the Torino Process approach, endorsed the findings of the first exercise and encouraged the ETF to build capacity in evidence-based policy making. In addition, partner countries confirmed their interest in taking part in the next round of the Torino Process, which is being carried out in 2012.
The Torino Process was launched in order to build consensus on the possible ways forward for VET policy and system development. This includes the determination of the state of the art and vision for VET in each country and an assessment of the progress that countries are making in achieving the desired results. The Torino Process embeds VET within the socio-economic context and ensures that the analysis is informed by relevant evidence and takes place through a structured policy dialogue leading in all participating countries to a Torino Process country report 2012.
This regional chapter analyses key trends for further VET system development in seven countries of Eastern Europe. The countries are covered by the European Union’s (EU) instrument of European Neighbourhood Partnership East (ENP E) and comprise Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The Russian Federation is also included in this report. The chapter draws on two finalized country reports from the region drafted under the 2012 ETF Torino Process. Other countries sent already advanced drafts. However, some country reports are not received yet in their final version. Moreover, this regional chapter used recent ETF Human Resource Development reviews on the different countries, as well as other relevant literature. Previous reports of the Torino Process 2010 are also considered.
Four of the seven countries underwent a self-assessment using the analytical framework for the Torino Process designed by the ETF. An ETF led assessment has been undertaken in
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Armenia, Georgia and Moldova using the same framework. This regional report builds on the five building blocks of the analytical framework and the results of the assessments carried out in the respective countries.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Since 2010 all seven Eastern European countries have developed VET policies and introduced systemic changes, which focus strongly on the national context. This positive trend has triggered country specific profiles of education systems, labour market structures, laws and regulations. Ongoing discussions about vision (overall policy priorities) and reform tend to connect societal objectives for socio-economic development with the potential VET contributions to such progress. European policies and approaches play an important role: all countries have either adopted or are creating national qualification frameworks (NQF). European quality assurance approaches are used and approaches for the validation of non-formal and informal learning are under consideration.
These positive developments have been accompanied by new legislative frameworks and considerable stakeholder involvement (mostly employers) in strategic discussions and in national/regional VET councils. Employers participate in defining new professional standards, promoting NQF and revised curricula which are introduced in a growing number of rehabilitated VET schools.
Less demand of the learners caused by demographic decline is currently influencing the education systems and the population trends in nearly all countries. Population trend has been in the period between 1990 and 2008 in Armenia (-13.2%), in Azerbaijan (21.2%), in Belarus (-5.0%), in Georgia (-21.1%), in Moldova (-16.7%), in Russia (-4.3%) and in Ukraine (-10.9%).
All countries have experienced a positive economic growth in the past years except for the slowdown around 2009, which was followed by a further recovery. In 2011, the GDP growth ranged between 1.0% in Azerbaijan to 7.0% in Georgia. The two larger countries (Russia and Ukraine) plus Belarus are more comparable in their development than the smaller countries. These three countries still have, apart from a rapidly growing service sector, an important industrial sector which operates mainly with ISCED 3 and 4 qualifications. The smaller countries go, variably, in different ways. Even the capital intensive oil sector in Azerbaijan employs only 1.5% of the national labour force. The smaller countries still have a huge agricultural sector, which serves as a buffer in case of structural problems towards more unemployment.
The employment level in the Eastern European countries is rather high (between 50.1% in Belarus to 62.7% in the Russian Federation in 2010), except for the Republic of Moldova with the employment rate of 39.4% in 2011. The unemployment is relatively low, especially in the two larger countries and Belarus. A different situation can be seen in Armenia and Georgia where 18.4% and 15.1% of the labour force were unemployed in 2011. Russia still attracts migrants to cover existing labour demand and demographic decline. Consequently, it’s the only country in the region with a negative balance of the in and outflows of remittances.
All countries are still discussing substantial VET reforms. In Belarus the strong relations between VET schools and enterprises contribute to effective employment of VET graduates. A well skilled labour force is constantly required, because the country loses 40,000 inhabitants every year due to the aging phenomena. All other countries have problems with the labour market relevance of many VET programmes and hence, with employability. Labour
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market information and analysis is still minimal. In the past sporadic education and business cooperation has been a way to cope with this problem and there is an overall awareness and tendency towards more cooperation.
The four smaller countries face serious employment problems and additionally extremely low employment rates, most of all Moldova – a situation partly explained by high emigration. This is not the case in the other countries where the activity rates are 60% and beyond. In the smaller countries the regional trend towards higher education does not necessarily imply employment after university graduation. Consequently, a high percentage of university leavers is unemployed or works on a lower level even in the informal sector.
The declining number of VET students and the increasing share of university graduates in the last decade had serious consequences for labour markets: over-education in the countries with minor employment problems (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine) led to a crowding out effect. Many university graduates are employed in jobs, which could be executed by lower skilled (VET) graduates. Simultaneously, the employers in these countries complain about skill gaps which hamper economic growth and enterprise development because a well qualified work force with middle level qualifications is hardly available. The reason for these gaps is questionable educational streaming and the current VET system performance. However, experts of the region report, recently, an increasing demand for VET programmes.
Over-education and simultaneous skill gaps are the consequence of the learner’s demand for higher education. The learners react on certain signals from the labour markets: As long as the returns and reputation of university education are in general higher than for middle level qualifications and crowding out recruitment strategies are used by employers, there will be strong demand for university education. In general countries lack attractive options for VET graduates to continue studying for post-secondary or higher professional vocational education and training or at a later stage in Continuing Vocational Training. Awareness campaigns, more permeability and attractive careers for ISCED 3 and 4 achievers could be an instrument to influence educational streaming.
In previous years all countries have concentrated funding on general and higher education taking into account that per capita costs of VET are higher than the costs in general education. Modest resources for VET are a prevailing trend in all countries, hampering the increase in quality, most of all in modern and capital intensive manufacturing and crafts professions. However, recent developments reveal an increasing demand for VET caused by the high unemployment rates of higher education graduates and structural adjustments of the economies. Hence, the share of students enrolled in VET education at the upper secondary level is rather high in bigger countries, such as Russia (48.5% in 2009) and Ukraine (28.6% in 2010). On the other hand, in countries such as Georgia and Armenia, VET plays a rather minor role with 1.2% (2008) and 6.4% (2010) of students attending VET programmes at the upper secondary level.
Apart from the financial problems which include serious restrictions for updating technical equipment/buildings and a more efficient use of existing resources, there are three common and interrelated areas for further reforms in all countries: governance, better linkages of VET to the economy in involving the business sector, and quality and relevance of the training programmes. Also entrepreneurial learning is an area in development. Moreover, there are country specific challenges.
Although there is an increased involvement of social partners in policy dialogues in several countries, coherent and well working multi-level governance modes are missing despite efforts towards decentralization and more involvement by stakeholders. The countries are
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either still on their way to new governance modes or do not opt for the participation of all stakeholders. Additionally, transition means more democracy and transparency, which is a long lasting social process rather than a ‘decision today’ in order to introduce better governance tomorrow. However, many countries are convinced of the advantages of new governance modes and consider ways to give greater responsibilities to schools and try to step ahead, a process which should be further supported by policy dialogue.
In all countries there is room for improvements in pre- and in-service teacher education and for better professional teacher careers, a core issue for better quality in education. Labour market relevance requires (from teachers and VET schools) new forms of cooperation with the private sector in order to maintain quality and update training programmes in time. There are already successful modes of cooperation in the region which could be extended towards systemic consequences for initial and continuing VET in a lifelong learning perspective updating, as well, the existing post secondary VET offers as a viable alternative to higher education and offering more entrepreneurial learning for different target groups.
The policy dialogue and applied research promoted by the Torino Process 2012 should stress further the need to design VET policies which build on evidence and on solutions derived from country specific contexts and commonly agreed objectives. Simultaneously, the capacities for implementing reform and innovation must be strengthened. Good practice from Europe could contribute to improvements as it has already in the past and measures for capacity building should complement policy design and implementation.
1. CONTEXT THAT SHAPES THE DEMAND FOR KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS BY EMPLOYERS AND INDIVIDUALS – SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
The region consists of five small countries (with between 3 million and 9 million inhabitants) and two large countries (Ukraine and Russia, with 46 million and 142 million inhabitants, respectively). The total population is around half that of the EU population of 2009. The proportion of the population made up of people of working age is higher than the EU average of 67% in all the countries. However, the region also has a shrinking and ageing population and is rapidly becoming one of the ‘oldest’ regions in the world (World Bank, 2007). Although the shrinking population of young people provides some relief in relation to the financing of the education system, both initial and continuing vocational training provision face serious difficulties in coping with skills mismatches.
Armenia, Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine belong to the lower-middle-income countries, whereas Azerbaijan, Belarus and Russia are upper-middle-income countries. Until the global crisis, their economies were developing extremely rapidly, with growth in gross domestic product (GDP) above 8% in 2007 (except in the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). It even reached 25% in Azerbaijan, as a result of the country’s vast oil revenues and a constantly increasing oil price.
However, the income levels of these countries represent major constraints in terms of public investment in education in general and in vocational education and training (VET) in particular, with new demands on VET systems. Learners are more likely to invest in higher education rather than in VET, which has led in many countries to an uncontrolled expansion of the higher education sector and unbalanced demand on the labour markets described below.
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The seven countries share a common past as part of the former Soviet Union, where VET was centrally planned and structures were very similar. Following independence, they all had to cope with tremendous changes and with the heritage of a central approach to VET governance. Over the past 20 years substantial progress has been made and the countries have established their own VET identities in the specific national context. This process is not finished because serious problems in the VET systems remain unsolved as described in the following chapters.
Since the societies and education systems tend to favour academic education over VET, academic drift in education has become more marked. VET has also been negatively affected by education policy choices over the past two decades and education and businesses remain, in the majority of the countries, separated worlds (ETF, 2011). As a result, there is a major problem with skills mismatches, and in particular there are pronounced skills shortages, further exacerbated by labour migration, whether from lower- to upper-middle-income countries in the region, or to high-income countries outside the region. This has a further negative impact on skills supply, particularly in the lower-middle-income countries.
More attention has been paid in the reform process to initial VET rather than continuing VET (CVET). This focus had well justified reasons. However, the Torino Process 2010 revealed that the transformation of the economies and the demographic trends have generated strong demands for training and retraining of employed and unemployed adults, which have remained unaddressed and which have generated an ETF regional project on CVET in Eastern Europe.
All countries suffered a ‘lost decade’ with high social costs in the previous century characterized by economic stagnation/decline, industrial restructuring, emerging informal sectors (OECD, 2009) and high figures of hidden and registered unemployment. From 2000 onwards, the countries passed a remarkable and constant period of economic growth and consolidation of public and private institutions suddenly interrupted by the crisis in 2008 and 2009. However, economic recovery is back since 2010 (as the following table reveals).
TABLE 1 GDP GROWTH (%), 2008–11
2008 2009 2010 2011
Armenia 6.9 -14.2 2.1 4.6
Azerbaijan 10.8 9.3 5.0 1.0
Belarus 10.3 0.2 7.7 5.3
Georgia 2.3 -3.8 6.3 7.0
Republic of Moldova 7.8 -6.0 7.1 6.4
Russian Federation 5.3 -7.8 4.3 4.3
Ukraine 2.3 -14.8 4.1 5.2
Source: World Bank (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS, accessed 20 August 2012)
While there has been substantial economic growth in all the countries, the drivers of growth vary according to national characteristics (e.g. the export-oriented oil and gas sector in Azerbaijan, and exports to Russia in Belarus). The structure of the economies indicates an ongoing trend to an expanding service sector in nearly all countries. Azerbaijan’s huge industrial sector is country specific and related to the oil sector. Economic restructuring is not yet finished. However, the key trend towards more services reveals an ongoing and substantial transition towards market economies.
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TABLE 2 SHARES OF AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY AND SERVIC E SECTORS AS % OF GDP, 2008–11
2008 2009 2010 2011
A I S A I S A I S A I S
Armenia 18.4 43.5 38.1 18.9 35.8 45.3 19.6 36.0 44.5 20.7 37.1 42.2
Azerbaijan 6.0 70.2 23.8 6.6 61.1 32.3 5.8 64.7 29.5 5.8 66.8 27.4
Belarus 9.8 44.3 46.0 9.4 42.3 48.3 9.2 43.9 46.9 8.1 41.0 50.9
Georgia 9.4 21.9 68.7 9.4 21.9 68.8 8.4 23.2 68.4 7.2 18.2 74.6 Republic of Moldova 10.7 14.3 75.0 10.1 13.1 76.8 14.3 13.2 72.5 13.5 12.4 74.2
Russian Federation 4.4 36.1 59.5 4.7 33.7 61.6 4.0 36.7 59.3 m.d. m.d. m.d.
Ukraine 7.9 33.6 58.5 8.3 29.6 62.1 8.2 30.9 60.9 8.3 31.4 60.3
Notes: m.d. = missing data; ‘A’ = agriculture; ‘I’ = industry; ‘S’ = services. Source: World Bank (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS, accessed 20 August 2012).
Special attention must be given to the small and medium sized enterprise (SME) development. The countries are using different criteria for the definition of SME. However, the data in Table 3 reveals that the SME are the backbones of the national economies, with the exception of Russia. VET policies must take into account the relevance of (informal) SME for employment opportunities and the specificities, which SME might have in terms of professional standards, qualification profiles and gaps in entrepreneurial competences. However, awareness about these skills needs and the demands they pose to education and training is increasing in the countries.
TABLE 3 PERCENTAGE OF SMEs OF ALL ACTIVE BUSINESSE S
Armenia 97.7 (2010)
Azerbaijan 94.0 (2011)
Belarus 97.0 (2010)1
Georgia 93.1 (2008)
Republic of Moldova 97.7 (2009)
Russian Federation 33.2 (2010)
Ukraine 99.4 (2011)
Notes: Armenia – the value refers to registered entities only; SMEs are entities with up to 249 employees in Armenia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine; and with up to 100 employees in Georgia and the Russian Federation; Azerbaijan – SMEs are entities with up to 5 to 40 employees depending on a sector. Sources: Small and Medium Entrepreneurship Development National Centre of Armenia (www.smednc.am/?laid=1&com=module&module=menu&id=189, accessed 4 September 2012); Ministry of Economic Development of Georgia (2009), Entrepreneurship in Georgia, Tbilisi.; National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova (http://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/Dialog/Saveshow.asp, accessed 4 September 2012); Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service (2011), Russian Statistical Yearbook, Moscow.; State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (www.ukrstat.gov.ua/, accessed 4 September 2012); The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan (2012), Statistical Yearbook, Baku.
The activity rates of the population are quite different in the region, where Belarus but most of all Moldova reveal very low rates, not only compared with EU targets of 70% but as well with other countries in the region. This could be explained by the fact that emigrants are classified as inactive by the national statistics because they work abroad. Russia has high activity rates, which explains the migration trend to the country. Ukraine and Azerbaijan are performing on similar
1 The figure for Belarus is derived from OECD et al. (2012a). SMEs in Belarus include enterprises up to 250 employees.
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levels. In Armenia and Georgia, a big share of activities in the informal sector and in the rural economy is included in the activity rates.
TABLE 4 ACTIVITY RATES (%), 15+, 2008–11
2008 2009 2010 2011
Armenia (15-75) 59.5 59.2 61.2 63.0 Azerbaijan 63.5 63.9 64.3 m.d. Belarus 55.4 55.1 55.5 m.d. Georgia 62.6 63.6 64.2 65.2 Republic of Moldova 44.3 42.8 41.6 42.3 Russian Federation (15-72) 67.8 67.8 67.7 m.d. Ukraine (15-70) 63.3 63.3 63.7 64.3 Notes: m.d. = missing data; data for Belarus and Azerbaijan are ILO estimates. Sources: National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia (2011), Labour Market in the Republic of Armenia, 2006-2010, Yerevan (www.armstat.am/en/?nid=80&id=1305); KILM database (http://kilm.ilo.org/KILMnetBeta/default2.asp, accessed 28 August 2012); Geostat (www.geostat.ge/index.php?action=page&p_id=146&lang=eng, accessed 29 August 2012); National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova (http://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/Dialog/Saveshow.asp, accessed 24 August 2010); Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service (www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b11_36/Main.htm, accessed 10 May 2012); State Statistics Service of Ukraine (www.ukrstat.gov.ua/, accessed 10 May 2012).
The employment structure of the main economic sectors also varies; in 2007, while agriculture still played a key role in absorbing employment in Georgia (53%) and Armenia (39% in 2010), industry in Belarus (34% in 2011) and both industry (21% in 2011) and services (62% in 2011) in Ukraine continued to be very important. Furthermore, most new jobs created between 2000 and 2007 were in the informal sector. In Armenia, for example, the informal sector now makes up 50% of total employment (ETF, 2010) in Moldova about one third of the employment. Across all countries employment opportunities in the agricultural and the manufacturing sector decreased while new employment opportunities emerged in an expanding service sector, claiming for different skills than in the socialist economy.
Armenia and Georgia have particularly high unemployment rates. This indicates that economic growth is not necessarily linked to more employment opportunities. Georgia’s country specific way of deregulation of the labour market was ineffective in terms of increasing employment rates and renewed Government’s attention towards unemployment claiming unemployment as problem number one in the country (Government of Georgia, 2012)2. Azerbaijan, Russia and Ukraine are recovering after the crises as table 5 reveals.
2 Unemployment of higher education graduates is higher than the shares of unemployment of graduates from other education levels (Castel Branco, 2012).
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TABLE 5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (%), 15+, 2008–11 2008 2009 2010 2011
T M F T M F T M F T M F
Armenia (15 -75) 16.4 14.4 18.6 18.7 17.8 19.9 19.0 17.0 21.2 18.4 m.d. m.d.
Azerbaijan 6.1 7.1 4.9 6.0 5.2 6.9 m.d. m.d. m.d. m.d. m.d. m.d.
Belarus (16-59 for males, 16-54 for females)
0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Georgia 16.5 16.8 16.1 16.9 18.1 15.4 16.3 17.9 14.5 15.1 16.7 13.1
Republic of Moldova 4.0 4.6 3.4 6.4 7.8 4.9 7.4 9.1 5.7 6.7 7.7 5.6
Russian Federation (15-72)
7.0 7.5 6.4 8.4 9.0 7.8 7.5 8.0 6.9 m.d. m.d. m.d.
Ukraine (15 -70) 6.4 6.6 6.1 8.8 10.3 7.3 8.1 9.3 6.8 7.9 8.8 6.8
Notes: m.d. = missing data; data for Azerbaijan are ILO estimates; data for Belarus refer to administrative data only. Thus, only those people who are registered with public employment services are considered as unemployed. Since many people may decide not to register, the unemployment rates may be underestimated. On the other hand, the employment is still largely guaranteed in Belarus, as, for example, a compulsory job allocation of graduates in publicly financed HE and also VET is exercised, which guarantees a first job for young people. Sources: National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia (2011), Labour Market in the Republic of Armenia, 2006-2010, Yerevan (www.armstat.am/en/?nid=80&id=1305); KILM database (http://kilm.ilo.org/KILMnetBeta/default2.asp, accessed 28 August 2012); Geostat (www.geostat.ge/index.php?action=page&p_id=146&lang=eng, accessed 29 August 2012); National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova (http://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/Dialog/Saveshow.asp, accessed 24 August 2010); Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service (www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b11_36/Main.htm, accessed 10 May 2012); State Statistics Service of Ukraine (www.ukrstat.gov.ua/, accessed 10 May 2012).
Massification of higher education led in nearly all countries to more unemployment of higher education graduates, which do not differ significantly from secondary education unemployment rates. In the case of Georgia they are even much higher than for secondary education graduates. The crowding out effect in Russia and Ukraine is a reason for avoiding higher unemployment rates for university graduates.
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TABLE 6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY EDUCATION (%), 15+, IN THE YEAR 2011
Georgia Armenia
(2010, 15-75)
Azer-baijan
Republic of
Moldova
Russian Federa-
tion (2010, 15-72)
Ukraine (15-70)
Primary 3.5 4.5 4.0 5.4 19.8 -
Basic 10.4 15.1 12.2 7.2 16.8 6.9
Secondary general 13.7 19.0 4.2 7.7 11.6 8.8
Primary vocational/ vocational (Armenia)/ secondary professional (Moldova)
10.3 20.3 5.7 7.2 7.9 -
Secondary vocational/ specialised secondary or incomplete tertiary (Armenia, Moldova, Ukraine)
13.4 20.3 7.1 5.2 5.8 7.2
(basic/full)
Higher 20.5 19.5 6.2 6.0 4.0 6.7
Total 15.1 19.0 5.4 6.7 7.5 7.9
Note: Data for Belarus are not available. Sources: Geostat (received directly from Geostat); National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia (2011), Labour Market in the Republic of Armenia, 2006-2010, Yerevan; National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova (http://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/Dialog/Saveshow.asp, accessed 24 August 2012); Russian Federation Federal State Statistics Service (www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b11_36/Main.htm, accessed 28 August 2012) (ETF calculation); State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2012), Economic Activity of Population in Ukraine 2011, Kiev.
Armenia has a considerable share of long-term unemployed among the population. This might be an indicator that new skills required in a market economy were not achieved by a certain segment of the population. Moreover, the agricultural sector, which is a buffer in times of structural change and reform, expanded as well in the country. On contrary, Azerbaijan and Belarus have low shares of long-term unemployed. Georgia doesn’t have an employment service collecting correspondent figures.
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TABLE 7 SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED AS % OF ALL UNEMPLOYED (%), 2008–11
2008 2009 2010 2011
Armenia (15-75) 64.2 54.6 60.2 m.d.
Azerbaijan 4.1 3.4 3.0 3.0
Belarus (15-59 men; 15-54 women) 8.2 6.2 6.4 5.8
Georgia (15+) m.d. m.d. m.d. m.d.
Republic of Moldova (15+) 31.3 27.9 30.8 32.6
Russian Federation (15-72) 33.3 28.7 29.9 m.d.
Ukraine (15-70) 28.7 18.4 33.9 28.4
Notes: Long-term unemployment refers to the unemployment longer than 12 months; data for Belarus and Azerbaijan refer to administrative data; Armenia – the calculation based on the length of unemployment from the termination of a job; Russia – the calculation based on the length of job search; m.d. = missing data. Sources: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (2012), Labour and Employment in the Republic of Belarus, Minsk; National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova (http://statbank.statistica.md/pxweb/Dialog/Saveshow.asp, accessed 4 September 2012); State Statistics Service of Ukraine (www.ukrstat.gov.ua/, accessed 4 September 2012); National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia (2011) Labour Market in the Republic of Armenia, Yerevan.; State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan (received from the country); Federal State Statistics Service (www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b11_36/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d1/01-62.htm, accessed 4 September 2012).
2 DO KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS MATCH THOSE DEMANDED BY EMPLOYERS AND INDIVIDUALS?
After more than 20 years of transition nearly all countries (exception Belarus) have considerable problems with a skill mismatch (ETF, 2011a, 2011b, 2011c, 2012b, 2012c, 2012d and 2012e) and/or employment. Belarus reveals excellent figures for the transition of VET graduates due to the government’s responsibility to find a first job for all VET graduates. All other countries have a serious problem with ‘over qualification’ and partly a high demand from the business sector for skilled workers of ISCED 3 and 4 levels, which led in Georgia already to higher enrolment rates in VET institutions. The quality of the skills that are currently provided at these levels is frequently unsatisfactory in the view of employers, a reason why higher enrolment rates should be linked to quality enhancement.
The structural misbalances on the labour markets are partly triggered by learner’s demand3 and correspondent educational policies which historically neglected the VET system in previous years. Even the required fees for higher education could not reduce the demand4. These fees are obligatory in many countries because the public offers only a restricted share of free enrolments. Between 1990 and 2008, enrolment in Russia in higher education tripled almost from 2.82 in 1990 to 7.42 million in 2008 with the consequence that many work places which require middle level skills are today covered by higher education graduates. In nearly the same period the number of graduates from ISCED 4 VET programmes decreased from 1990 (100%) to 42.3% in the year 2009 (ETF, 2011a). The structural misbalance is linked with an overall decreasing quality of educational services, also affecting higher education, which has seen in the past the over multiplication of institutions in the absence of quality criteria.
3 Students which enrol in Russia in higher education are not obliged to go to the two years military service. 4 In Azerbaijan 60% of higher education students are paying fees (Deij, 2011).
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Russia is a good example for these misbalances in nearly all countries of the region. Data in table 7 provided by the union of VET school directors compares for Russia output and demand for different education levels and for the year 2010 (Umarov, 2011, p 31)5:
TABLE 9 EDUCATIONAL OUTPUT AND LABOUR MARKET DEMAN D, 2010 (%)
Higher
education VET ISCED 4
level VET ISCED 3
level No qualification
Output of the education system
60 13 18 9
Labour market demand
35 22 37 6
Ukraine – the second largest country of the region – reports similar misbalances on the labour markets. 44.4% of the employers stated that the shortage of qualified blue collar workers is the biggest obstacle for the country’s enterprises to grow further (Sondergaard, 2012). The high enrolment rates in higher education and decreasing VET enrolment led to crowding out effects: 62% of professionals (which are blue-collar jobs) are filled by university graduates (ETF, 2011b) and employers complain that newly contracted staff is missing technical and non-technical skills required in the world of work6.
Belarus meets country specific targets of VET driven labour force development quite well in terms of employment, because the country still has the mechanism of compulsory first jobs for VET graduates. However, Belarus employers complain as in Moldova and Georgia about similar problems of skill gaps also as in Russia and Ukraine. 41.5% in Moldova and 26.5% of Georgian employers identify inadequately educated workforce as a major constraint and obstacle for enterprise development (Sondergaard, 2012) and ‘although many companies across all sectors have been trying to find new employees in the past 12 month, only about half of them have succeeded’ (Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia, 2012). The reasons are the same: poor quality of VET and consequently low enrolment rates, insufficient CVET and ‘over qualification’ of university graduates with labour market irrelevant certificates caused structural misbalances on the labour markets.
Big companies usually have the option to further train their staff. A forthcoming report (ETF, 2013) however reveals existing problems of CVET in the region. The countries have highlighted the obsolescence of the existing legislation, the lack of cooperation between public and private sector, the insufficient expertise to carry out training need analyses, the lack of quality criteria, funding issues etc. as key factors that negatively affect CVET.
Looking at employer’s opinions on the relevance of human capital for enterprise development the above mentioned results are confirmed und documented in the graph below: In the three larger countries – Belarus, Russia and Ukraine – around 50% of employers indicate that an inadequately trained workforce hinders company performance and development (EBRD/World Bank, 2010). Employer perceptions deteriorated in all countries except Georgia between 2005 and 2009 (Figure 1).
5 There are however, different explanations for labour market shortages. Gimpelson et al. (2012) write that imperfect labour market mechanisms impede the reallocation of better skilled workers in the Russian manufacturing sector. 6 The permeability of the education system is well used by the learners, because ‘two thirds of all students complete general secondary education alongside their vocational education’ (ETF, 2011d) and many of them enrol after graduation in higher education.
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FIGURE 1 AN INADEQUATELY EDUCATED WORKFORCE AS AN OBSTACLE TO COMPANIES (%), 2005–09
Note: The 2005 and 2009 data are not fully comparable owing to methodological changes. Source: EBRD/World Bank (2010).
However, since the returns to education correlate in Armenia (Corradini, 2012), Georgia and Moldova (ETF, 2011c) and most likely as well in the other countries positively with the level of education the propensity of many learners and their families is to enrol in the higher education sector, regardless if the fields of study are labour market relevant or if the graduates need to accept employment opportunities on a lower level, which could equally be covered from lower skilled graduates. This issue is not necessarily complemented by lower unemployment rates of the better educated7 and ‘in Armenia and Georgia […] one-fifth of highly educated people were unemployed’ (ETF, 2011e, pp. 185-186).
The Russian and Ukrainian case reveal that the misbalance of over qualification and skills gaps8 on ISCED 3 and 4 levels is typical for the labour market (ETF, 2012) and not unemployment per se. Russia still attracts migrants from other countries and Ukraine has moderate unemployment rates. Another case is Moldova with the lowest employment rate in the region of only 38.5% in 2010 (ETF, 2011c). Consequently, micro enterprises in the informal sector and as an alternative against poverty are mushrooming. Similar trends are notable in Georgia with serious employment problems and in Azerbaijan, where the booming oil and gas ‘sector is good for two thirds of GDP, but employs less than one in seventy workers’ (Deij, 2011), which means approximately 1.5% of the workforce.
7 In Georgia, the unemployment rates of higher education graduates are higher (Castel Branco, 2012) than unemployment rates from graduates of other education levels, a consequence of the previous deregulation of the higher education sector which is meanwhile amended due to a more severe accreditation policy for higher education institutions. This does not undermine the country specific trend to create an education system based on credibility and quality, including private providers on all levels and the elimination of corruption. 8 ‘Skill gaps appear in periods of economic restructuring when the new jobs created require different types of skills to those destroyed, before the education and training system has been sufficiently updated to match the pace of change (ETF, 2011d, p. 187).
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Azerbaijan 0
5
Azerbaijan 0
9
Arm
enia 05
Arm
enia 09
Geo
rgia 05
Geo
rgia 09
Belarus 05
Belarus 09
Moldova 0
5
Moldova 0
9
Russia 0
5
Russia 0
9
Ukrain
e 05
Ukrain
e 09
94 81
8573
7171
67
42
6655
63
4961 54
712
1624
29 2733
55
3443
37
49
3943
DK/ NA It is not an obstacle It is an obstacle
13
The limited availability of jobs in the smaller countries, modest wages in poorly functioning labour markets and the subsequent poor quality of life have meant that labour emigration and the associated brain drain have become major features of the region, contributing in Armenia in 2011 with 12.1% to the GDP (Corradini, 2012). On the contrary, Russia absorbs the largest number of migrants (in 2005, 1–2 million from Ukraine, around 1 million from Azerbaijan and nearly half a million from Armenia), followed by Europe. Ukraine has the highest number of emigrants abroad: more than 6 million in 2005. The highest share of emigrants has Moldova, where they represented 25% of the workforce in 2010. Although skills range across all levels, many migrants are young (aged 20–40 years) and educated.
However, most migrants work in low-skilled or unskilled jobs abroad and there is a common pattern of skills wastage. The net labour migration in 2010 is presented in the table below and confirms the trend towards Russia which attracts most of the migrants and the employment problems in Armenia, Georgia and Moldova.
TABLE 10 NET LABOUR MIGRATION, 2010
Armenia -75,000
Azerbaijan 53,264
Belarus -50,010
Georgia -150,000
Moldova -171,748
Russian Federation 113,5737
Ukraine -40,006
Source: World Bank (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS, accessed 4 Sepbember 2012)
Labour migration is also indicated in the negative or positive balance of the monetary inflows and outflows of remittances, such as Armenia +839, Azerbaijan +471, Belarus +485, Georgia +756, Moldova +1,275, Russia -13,532 and Ukraine +5,583 (in millions USD in 2010)9. Russia is the outstanding attractor of human capital from other countries, followed by Azerbaijan which a decade ago exported labour.
3. VISIONS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN VET
New visions and VET policies/strategies have emerged throughout the region that endeavours to respond to country specific socio-economic challenges. They even relate to the CIS development strategy 2009–11, which includes science, innovation and education as important areas of cooperation. The strategies of all countries recognize the importance of VET for the economic and social development and all countries (with the exception of Belarus10) are using the word ‘reform’ in the context of their policies for VET system development. Some of the countries claim VET even for sustainable development and private sector contributions in terms of funding and VET delivery.
Initially, many of these initiatives for designing visions and VET strategies have been driven by donors. Today, the situation is different: the tremendous decline of VET enrolment rates in
9http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/0,,contentMDK:22759429~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:476883,00.html (accessed 16 October 2012) 10 The key words in this country are ‘innovative development and competitive growth’ in increasing by 30% the share of highly skilled VET graduates.
14
nearly all countries, the lack of skilled blue collar workers11 with negative consequences for employment and the growth of enterprises (Sondergaard, 2012) and the ‘over qualification’ of the (unemployed) university graduates claim for suitable long term solutions in the education system which better support the increasing demand for VET.
The specific vision of VET, however, varies by country according to national priorities. Most countries link their new strategies to both competitiveness and social agendas; some also link their vision to additional objectives (Armenia to national security goals and sustainability, Belarus to socio cultural goals and Ukraine to sustainability). Countries have started to put VET higher on their national policy agendas. The Moldova National Development Strategy 2020 has the alignment of skills to the labour market through better quality of education and training at the top of the priorities. The support to the SME Sector Strategy is similarly indicating competence and human capital as one key objective. In Azerbaijan, however, VET policies are still being reformulated. The country is aware that the booming export of oil and gas with spill over effects to the rest of the economy requires well skilled human capital on secondary and post-secondary VET level. Consequently, objectives to formulate a national and non-donor driven VET strategy are currently high on the agenda.
All countries made efforts in order to further develop their VET systems and their articulation to the environment. Positive results are notable, mainly in three areas:
• legislation, • strengthening institutions, and • the involvement of employers.
The policies and strategies of all countries recognize the added value of systemically implemented stakeholder involvement and explicitly the relevance of qualification frameworks and their compliance to the EQF. These frameworks stimulated the quality discussion in VET and a more systematic stakeholder involvement as well. However, only in Armenia and Georgia is a national framework already in place and the other countries are still working to close the gap between visions, policy design and the implementation in the countries’ reality which does not work through mere adoption of regulations although is driven by longer lasting social processes on which regulations can build. But care needs to be taken to ensure that frameworks are, at least at the outset, simple and affordable.
All countries have developed new VET strategies and laws. In addition, specific legislation refers mainly to the development and implementation of national qualification frameworks, the new design of professional standards/curricula, quality assurance, decentralization efforts and in the case of Georgia liberalization towards an educational market in higher education and VET, which is today steered by accreditation and quality control instruments.
All countries reformed VET departments in ministries, created national VET agencies/councils and are in the process of rehabilitation of the existing VET schools. Schools have been partly closed in order to support and concentrate available resources on centres of excellence according to the needs of different regions. The further training of school directors and teachers is an ongoing process to support quality and to improve professional careers. The business sector contributed to the equipment of schools and specialized national (VET) agencies have been set up to manage accreditation, teacher education and quality control.
11 This transition problem is less dramatic in countries with higher shares of well qualified VET graduates. Belarus reports that employment for VET graduates is increasing achieving 99.05% (Umarov et al., 2011). However, Russia with a high share of VET students has a growing shortage of skilled manual workers and technical specialists, because many VET students continue in higher education programmes (ETF, 2011a).
15
The sporadic and unsystematic involvement of the business sector is a characteristic of the fast changing realities in market driven economies. Involvement ranges from participation in national VET councils to consultancy and advice in curriculum development, participation in school and assessments boards (ETF, 2011). Trade unions are hardly involved in VET activities. The involvement of stakeholders is an ongoing social process which might lead as well to more relevant and systematic consequences for the overall VET system, e.g. changing the character of internships more to longer phases of practical learning in enterprises, which could be an option for better learning, because many VET schools are not well equipped.
Georgia’s reform process is the most advanced towards the privatization of VET institutions. Currently, only 14 public VET centres are funded largely through a voucher scheme which prioritizes professional areas with high demand on the labour markets. Moreover, 71 private institutions are operating in the country and their offers must be fully covered by tuition fees of the learners (Castel Branco, 2012). It’s still too early to determine whether such a VET system, in the future, will cover the human capital requirements.
The structural misbalances on the labour markets in terms of shortages of qualified labour and so called ‘over education’ are, in all countries, the focus of policy makers triggering serious attention from respective governments12. This has led in all countries to more awareness of the relevance of VET for societal objectives and the formulation of VET policies which focus on broader development socio-economic goals and on a more demand driven perspective (learners and enterprises) of the strategies and policy documents – involving more systematically employers in the outline of VET programmes.
Awareness has been raised through a review in 2011 of the country policies in support of SME, using criteria inspired by the EU Small Business Act (OECD et al., 2012a). The review reveals shortages in entrepreneurial learning and in training support for female entrepreneurs. Several countries meanwhile decided to tackle this issue.
All countries are aware of the importance of career guidance and its contribution in avoiding future labour market distortions. However, for career guidance, many countries concentrate new policies and activities too much on initial VET and have not included such services for employed and unemployed adults13. This is even more crucial in the larger countries and Belarus with an aging labour force where these problems could be partly alleviated with more integration of adults in the work force through vocational guidance and (further) training.
There are three other commonalities among the countries. They still have an initial VET offer and a ‘secondary’ VET for intermediate qualifications of technicians. A difference exits in the system’s permeability: VET programmes are, in some countries, dead ends (as in Georgia, which nevertheless recognizes the problem) but in many countries the possibility still exists to continue with higher education. However, in practice few VET graduates are continuing their education after the secondary level. Georgia is advanced in deregulating the VET system, but encounters severe problems in terms of financing in restructuring the whole sector with public and private providers.
The issue of lifelong learning is a good example for the importance of vision/policy development which is not necessarily followed by sustainable implementation and action. However, Moldova and Georgia have already made systematic efforts in the recognition of non formal learning. Moreover, lifelong learning is in many countries understood as adult training. Figures for Russia, Ukraine and Moldova reveal that the shares of adults - employed and unemployed - participating in training programmes are still modest, such as 5–7% of
12 Moreover, ‘institutional and social dialogue, capacity, and leadership of implementation will be among the key elements for successful and sustainable reforms’ (Castejon et al., 2011, p. 162). 13 The employment services of Azerbaijan and Ukraine have as well a focus on adult job seekers.
16
adults for Russia, where 1/3 of adult population expressed further education needs (ETF, 2011a), for Ukraine, where the extractive and manufacturing sector provided outstanding shares of further training with 7,4% and 5,2% respectively (ETF, 2011b) and 0.95% in 2010 of all population between 24 and 64 years for Moldova respectively (ETF, 2011c)14.
The lifelong learning issue and similar delays in other policy areas are significant for a serious gap between policy design and implementation on all levels of the VET systems. Some main reasons for modest progress in implementation are:
• lack of institutional capacities, • lack of returns on retraining, • low motivation and/or resistance against decisions taken in a non participative manner
and top down implemented measures, • lack of resources and incentives complementing innovation.
Higher education benefited most from educational policies during the transition phase. Secondary VET was often neglected at policy level and managed with outdated governance modes. This process was reinforced by the demand of the learners, which are even ready to pay high fees for university graduation (ETF 2011a, 2011b). The growing demand led most countries to opt for liberalised higher education policies by opening up to fee-based public and private universities. Most enrolment is in academic higher education (ISCED 5A); enrolment in vocational higher education (ISCED 5B) has been decreasing since the early 2000s (in 2008, the rates ranged between 12% in Republic of Moldova and 27% in Azerbaijan). Professional areas such as engineering, manufacturing and construction (which play a prominent role in the EU New Skills for New Jobs agenda) have seen the lowest increases and even decreases in enrolment compared with other fields (UNESCO, 2010).
The four smaller countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova) have limited research capacities in the VET sector and hardly funds for complementing VET system development with targeted research carried out with national resources, which would create more evidence for further decisions and would support the design of new visions/policies15. On the contrary, Belarus makes efforts in skills forecasting and the larger countries have better developed research capacities.
4. ARE INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS, CAPACITIES AND BUDGETS ADEQUATE FOR BRINGING ABOUT THE DESIRED CHANGES IN VET?
4.1 VET governance on different levels
Despite the existing planning traditions and the emerging development of VET strategies in most countries, the accountability of stakeholders from civil society is still weak. There are difficulties in implementing long-term visions/policies in VET pilot projects and mechanisms are missing for extending the pilots to the overall system level. One reason for that is outdated governance modes, which still operate the VET system. The MoE’s planning
14 Crossover the region the private sector should have a stronger voice and incentive driven further training schemes, which should be linked to qualification frameworks and sound accreditation policies for providers (Bodewig et al., 2011). 15 Azerbaijan is an exception in the small countries. Several times publicly financed research was launched on different VET issues.
17
traditions in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus16 (ETF 2011a, 2011b, 2011f) impede a more flexible and accountability driven development of VET institutions. Public entities still decide in a central manner and intervene a lot into the content and structure of training programmes instead of involving private sector initiatives, which would articulate demand according to the requirements of the enterprises17. Here, Georgia is more advanced. However, the duties, rights and obligations of the National VET Council are not well defined.
An important step was taken in Russia towards further decentralization of VET governance and administration and the foreseen ‘implementation of regional TVET development programmes’ catches up the decentralization paradigm (Umarov et al., 2011) for Russia’s VET system whereas the federal centre of VET will only be strengthened in order to regulate better the emerging market for education and to enhance the quality and transparency in education and training.
In Armenia recent VET policy documents, which have been prepared with the support of international experts, are not yet owned by policy makers. However, and in order to stimulate implementation, the Ministry of Education and Science, the Armenian Union of Employers and the Chamber of Commerce signed a memorandum of understanding on VET cooperation, to define the involvement of employers in VET development and provision. Ukraine has established an inter-agency working group in an effort to shape educational planning in line with the demands of the economy18.
Where social partners especially employers become involved the situation changes and the advantages of modern governance modes are increasingly discussed. In Ukraine the 2012 law on ‘Professional development’ lays the basis for CVET according to the needs and with participation of the social partners. In Moldova various sector committees are working on these issues. Federal and centralized governance modes are questioned in the entire region and decentralization at least suitable for huge countries like Russia and Ukraine. The raising awareness includes in Russia legal issues, where regional legislation is gaining ground against the previous centralized model.
In Russia, a law from 2007 opened the door for the involvement of employers in VET policy formulation and in the recent years the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RUIE) contributed more systematically to VET system development. Moreover, the future systemic involvement from employers is codified by an agreement between the ministry and the Russian employer organization.
In Ukraine, in spite of the active recent involvement of employers in developing and modernizing VET, the implementation of reforms and initiatives is constrained by the lack of technical capacities (such as expertise in competence based and occupational standards and modern quality assurance mechanisms) and both institutional and financial resources. The ongoing crisis has affected the implementation of the National VET Development Programme for 2011-15 because the planned financial resources are not available. As regards the implementation of the NQF adopted by the government decree in 2011 a number of employer led pilot projects have been initiated to develop new occupational standards with a view to developing a model for engaging the labour market actors in competence based standards.
16 The sectoral orientation of many educational institutions has been preserved as well as the orientation to large enterprises. 17 Belarus’, Russia’s and Ukraine’s educational institutions developed meanwhile first cooperation forms with enterprises for anticipating demand, in-service practice and training, developing standards etc. (ETF, 2011f). 18 This approach can already build on good practice: ‘the Kiev VET school of jewellery works in close cooperation with the Jewellery Association to provide training for workers from all regions, offering 100% employment for all graduates’ (ETF, 2011e). There is as well a legal base that experienced workers can move to VET institutions as teachers.
18
However, the lack of technical competences and the absence of a single coordinating qualification agency is a serious impediment for boosting and scaling up the NQF implementation. Solutions are sought through new legislative initiatives (Draft Law on Professional Qualifications) and funding mechanisms (an initiative on the establishment of a national training fund is under discussion).
Hence, most countries are today on the way in modifying the system of governance on two different levels: the system level itself which might include in the future e.g. instruments like independent external evaluation for better and more informed governance. The second aspect is the institutional level of schools, which should operate in the future with more degrees of freedom. The third aspect is the progressive involvement of the social partners. Also the MoE of Belarus cooperates today more systematically with employers. The strong awareness of Belarus employers for human capital investments for maintaining the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector is supporting this process.
There are some common problems left in all countries. This is predominantly capacity building for stakeholders involved in new governance modes. This includes in a multi-level governance model not only the federal level but also sector and regional organizations and the VET schools, where teachers and school directors must be further trained in order to assume different tasks and more accountability towards the learners and the local economy. Pre service and in service teacher education and training is per se a crucial and critical issue in all countries19. In the future, policy makers, trainers, teachers and school managers must be prepared in their educational careers for such new governance approaches.
There is very strong case for greater school autonomy especially as it is much discussed (and even agreed) but little implemented. The case is intertwined with the question of decentralisation / ‘de concentration’ either to municipal or school level. Decentralisation implies financial responsibility at local level but requires national uniform technical guidelines in areas such as occupational standards, vocational qualifications and core curricula. It also needs to address the local/regional involvement of the social partners. Decentralisation can also signify delegation by ministries of technical responsibilities to bodies at national level (standards/qualifications/finance etc.).
Concerning local commercial activities, if the school has greater autonomy, then it needs to be spelled out either in legislation or regulation or in the school’s own statutes that the school can engage in commercial activities and that it can retain the income (and what the limitations are).
There might well then, be a regulatory framework for schools to become more autonomous in the light both of their responsibility for income generation and their need for responsiveness to the local market and enterprises, taking into account the obligations of school boards and management committees.
4.2 Resources and budgets
In the last 20 years of transition, the policy makers and the learners gave priority to general secondary and higher education – including corresponding budget resources. Combined with the low attractiveness of VET the learners’ preferences influenced negatively initial training and the modest efforts in further training, because governments spent more money on general secondary and higher education. Hence, many countries have low shares of VET
19 Ukraine established meanwhile a compulsory in-service training for teachers. Every five years they must assist to a further training programme.
19
students compared with the number of students in all programmes on the same education level and funding is linked in all countries to the educational streaming towards different educational sub systems.
TABLE 11 TOTAL NUMBER OF VET STUDENTS COMPARED TO THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PUPILS AND STUDENTS BY EDUCATION LEVEL Armenia
2010 Azerbaijan
2010 Belarus
2010 Georgia
2010 Moldova
2010 Russia 2009
Ukraine 2010
Lower secondary (ISCED 2)
193,364
n.a.
666,277
n.a.
468,270
n.a.
166,586
n.a.
207,720
n.a.
6,403,704
n.a.
2,289,065
n.a.
Upper secondary (ISCED 3)
88,060
5,618
(6.4%)
396,397
176,337
(44.5%)*
210,649
5,433
(2.6%)
(2007)
131,625
1,580
(1.2%)
(2008)
99,899
35,513
(35.4%)
3,209,844
1,556,758
(48.5%)
843,907
241,706
(28.6%)
Post sec. non tertiary (ISCED 4)
n.a.
n.a.
37,367
37,367
(100%)
108,991
108,991
(100%)
(2007)
6,076
6,076
(100%)
(2008)
1,861
1,861
(100%)
134,750
134,750
(100%)
182,607
182,607
(100%)
Tertiary (ISCED 5)
153,696
29,986
(19.5%)
179,579
34,659
(19.3%)
601,352
166,637
(27.7%)
102,710
6,403
(6.2%)
128,240
17,048
(13.3%)
9,178,199
1,665,080
(18.1%)
2,599,426
354,226
(13.6%)
Notes: The first figure shows the number of students in all programmes for a specific education level, the second and third one the number of VET students at a corresponding level and as a share of the first figure respectively. n.a. = not applicable; (*) According to national data and calculations in the Torino Process country report for Azerbaijan, the share of VET students at the ISCED 3 level has been estimated at the level of 11.2%, which is much lower than the UNESCO estimates. Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/document.aspx?ReportId=136&IF_Language=eng&BR_Topic=0, accessed 10 May 2012).
Typical for initial VET is the ISCED 3 level – an exception is Belarus, which concentrates on ISCED 4 – where the shares of VET students compared to all students on this level are for Armenia 6.4%, for Azerbaijan 11.2% (referring to national data and calculations in the TP country report – ETF, 2012f), for Belarus 2.6%, for Georgia 1.2%, for Moldova 35.5%, for Russia 48.5% and for Ukraine 28.6%. None of the countries exceeds 50% and in some countries the shares of VET students are extremely low. Consequently, Armenia which is one country with low shares of VET students, spent in 2010 only 4.8% of public expenditure for education on VET (Corradini, 2012) and Georgia will spend 4.1% in 2012 respectively (Castel Branco, 2012)20.
20 The share of VET spending out of total educational spending is only available for these two countries. Belarus is to a certain extend exceptional, because spending for VET infrastructure nearly doubled between 2005 and 2008 (ETF, 2011e). The Georgian figures do not include that in 2012 the share of 13.25% of all VET students pay the full amount of their training programme, due to the considerable number of private training institutes.
20
One has to take into account that current enrolment in VET does not automatically mean that the students end up in employment according to their VET qualifications. Countries with relatively high shares of VET students (like Russia) have a high permeability in the system. Hence, students enrol after initial VET in higher education programmes. Moreover, the ISCED 4 level has the potential to meet the demand of both the employers and the students’ expectations and the desire to progress. The enhancement and expansion of the offer of the post-secondary level should therefore receive attention and investment on part of the governments.
The overall spending on education remains in four countries considerably below UNESCO recommendations.
FIGURE 2 PUBLIC EDUCATIONAL SPENDING AS % OF GDP A ND % OF TOTAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, 2006 AND 2009
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
% of
GDP
% of
gov.
exp.
% of
GDP
% of
gov.
exp.
% of
GDP
% of
gov.
exp.
% of
GDP
% of
gov.
exp.
% of
GDP
% of
gov.
exp.
% of
GDP
% of
gov.
exp.
% of
GDP
% of
gov.
exp.
Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Republic of
Moldova
Russian
Federation
Ukraine
2009
2006
Notes: Russian Federation – data refer to the years 2004 and 2008; Ukraine – data refer to the years 2006 and 2007. Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/tableView.aspx, accessed 14 May 2012).
Moldova was outstanding on educational spending – even in the years of the crisis, but still remains with an inefficient network because of a declining population and low teacher/students relations, but high maintenance and heating costs. From 2012 onwards the number of schools will be reduced. This makes educational spending more effective and the schools should be more intensively used by launching CVET programmes including entrepreneurs. Five countries increased educational spending. However, the majority remains
21
below the UN recommendation of 6%. Moldova and Ukraine achieved the recommendation in the past – more updated data is not available21.
Initial VET is more costly than general secondary education and the reform initiatives must be seen in the context of available resources. Especially those countries which have not yet systematically developed education and business cooperation in initial VET have serious problems in updating the existing infrastructure in schools and in purchasing new textbooks. Donor support has its limits in VET financing and could even reinforce structural discrepancies in the countries between the VET institutions. This led in Armenia to the situation that 12 regional state colleges are relatively well equipped – coping multi functionally with initial and further training. However, the rest of the VET school remain in the same situation in terms of infrastructure and equipment (Corradini, 2012). Azerbaijan rehabilitated in the 2007–12 as well 20 VET schools, which is less than 20% of the school network.
Enormous constraints in terms of technical equipment, school buildings and furniture are a common problem in all countries22, which can only partly be solved by the schools running some educational services for clients23. The human resources (teachers, trainers and school managers) need in all countries more and constant updating, linked with more attractive professional careers.
It is very important to remember that reform strategies cannot exist without a budget line attached and that, quite simply for each country four key questions need to be answered (ETF 2007):
• What are the current and future sources of finance? • How will they be collected and by whom? • How will they be dispersed, by whom and by what criteria? • What measures are in hand to reform current finance mechanisms?
Preoccupations in each of the countries need to be:
• the capacity of line ministries to continue to steer the system in face of pressures toward greater decentralisation;
• the decisive role for the overall budget negotiations of the Ministry of Finance; • the projected role of the municipalities and/or regions; • the nature of so called school autonomy; • the role of intermediate bodies (such as an Employment Bureau or VET Council or
Centre) detached from government but still at central level.
5. WHAT FURTHER REFORMS ARE NECESSARY TO MODERNISE THE VET SYSTEM?
Despite considerable progress made in many areas of VET, there are in all countries crucial issues remaining for further improvement. This should happen in the context of enhanced competitiveness and with a better response to the demand of learners and the business sector, which is already partly outlined in the visions and policies of the countries. Apart from
21 Azerbaijan developed a country specific approach for analysing public educational spending in leaving out the vast and dominating oil and gas sector in terms of GDP creation. Hence, the net share of education expenditures of the state budget without this sector amounted in 2010 to 5.5%. 22 The MoE of Azerbaijan stated that still 78 out of 107 VET schools need restructuring (Deij, 2011). 23 Ukraine is on a good way in not creating additional structures for the further training of adults/unemployed. VET schools are used for this task reinvesting the money in school infrastructure and increasing teacher salaries.
22
constraints with the technical infrastructure and with refurbishing VET schools, all countries still have problems in three interconnected technical areas:
• a multi-level and stakeholder driven governance of the system including decentralization in large countries;
• the quality and labour market relevance of the training offers in the initial and in the underdeveloped continuing VET systems; and
• better linkages between publicly driven VET and the business sector on various levels.
Moreover, future actions in VET system development should better link evidence and the design and implementation of new policies to capacity building measures for the stakeholders involved.
These serious problems could be solved in the mid-term by more commitment, timely stakeholder participation, more cooperation in the region and sticking systematically to good practice already available in the countries. In many cases, EU policies and good practice from Europe have been already one of the main drivers of local efforts and could be further discussed in terms of utility in the national context of the countries.
Thematic platforms for policy dialogue are available at the European level. All countries, with the exception of Russia, have joined the Eastern Partnership. Dialogue on more effective migration management and tackling related skills challenges has been launched by the EU Mobility Partnerships signed by Armenia, Georgia and Moldova which will be continuously supported by the ETF.
5.1 Complexity requires decentralized action and so und decisions by competent stakeholders
VET systems have complex relations to their environment. Differently from other educational sub systems, they are directly affected by changes in technological developments, by non predictable variations on markets, adjustments of economic sectors, by changes in work organisation and by migration. The influence on the VET system of such extra systemic drivers (Wallenborn, 2012) is increasing in a globalized world with shorter innovation cycles and strong imperatives for rapid adjustments of the human capital stock.
Such challenges should have consequences for the governance modes on national24 and institutional level and for the self perception of VET experts (teacher, trainers, managers, decisions makers etc.). Teachers and other VET personnel in the public sector cannot be fully aware about the relevant changes in the world of work and the consequences for skills development. Hence, information channels and decision making mechanisms must be created in a modern VET system which assures that skills acquired in VET fit effectively in world of work contexts. Moreover, flexibility and short time adjustments of training programmes are outstanding characteristics of effective training25.
Such information channels must assure that the voices of the world of work report authentically about relevant changes and suggest consequences for training in terms of adjustment of professional standards, curricula and infrastructure. National, regional or sector
24 Georgia already adopted in 2011 a social partnership agreement for VET. However, it does not contain information how social partnership should operate in terms of activating employers, unions etc. (Castel Branco, 2012). 25 One alternative for better governance on the institutional level of VET providers are school councils comprising employers, trade unions, teachers, students etc. ETF supported in Armenia the effectiveness of such councils with capacity building programmes.
23
VET councils could be adequate forums for discussing changes, future challenges and new measures in order to increase effectiveness and efficiency of VET delivery.
Decentralization according to training needs in different sectors and regions of large countries is appropriate for the diversification of training programmes and to cover regional or local characteristics. Stakeholder involvement on decision making on the operational levels of VET systems (school boards, sector committees, chambers etc.) are suitable instruments to better act in today’s complexity where nobody of the experts knows everything, but everybody from the world of work can contribute authentically with knowledge, relevant for VET system development, because ‘the basis of organisation (from trade unions and employers) lies at the level of enterprises or workplaces (ETF, 2012a, p. 10).
The VET systems in Ukraine and Belarus are still largely centralized, which has negative influence on the flexibility of the training programmes towards more labour market relevance. Combined with barely existing mechanisms to collect constantly labour market information, such approaches previously have built on successes of the past rather than on participation and flexibility required in the future. Wherever possible, the decision about the relevance of certain training programmes should be shifted to local VET institutions involving stakeholders of the civil society and the current policy developments in many countries are aiming to improve new governance modes, relevant for effective VET system development. The ETF supports such efforts in a region of Ukraine where stakeholder consultation and labour markets surveys aim at adjusting VET offers to the regional demand.
5.2 Quality and relevance require practical learning an d support through lifelong learning
The countries did a lot to increase the quality of the training programmes: Quality assurance instruments, national qualification frameworks and the design of new professions and professional standards are clear indicators for progress. This progress was one incentive for Russian employers for playing a key role in developing a NQF. Previously they complained about the low quality of technical and non-cognitive skills of VET graduates being even worse from 2000 onwards than in the early 1990s (ETF, 2011a). The technological development in the modern handicraft, manufacturing and service sector differs more and more from the realities in VET schools. Successful work based learning which covers skills acquirement in many cases better and which is suitable for professions operating at the technological limits cannot be implemented in workshops of schools26. There are structural limits in terms of new infrastructure and competences of teachers, trainers and school managers to constantly update school based VET programmes according to technological and economic changes. Cooperation with the business sector and new learning sequences in the world of work are urgently required to cover an already existing skills gap.
The implementation of new regulations (standards, frameworks27, curricula etc.) led in the past to more stakeholder involvement in the national VET dialogue. It was an opportunity to think about expectations of the business sector and about learning outcomes. Standards have been formulated and new curricula designed. A main challenge will be to implement this in the learning practice and reflect on suitable modes like work based learning, complementing learning in schools for better pathways and more practical and employment relevant skills.
26 Georgia decided by law to dedicate 40% of all VET curricula to practical training (Castel Branco, 2012). 27 NQFs led in Armenia, Georgia and Ukraine to new legislation and they are expected to generate results in the next months in Azerbaijan and Russia.
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However, regulations and standards can only be effectively applied if trainers, teachers and school managers are sufficiently updated to fulfil new tasks and when outdated professions are continuously sorted out. Such capacity building of institutions and experts must be complemented by new infrastructure, textbooks, new methodological approaches and a new mixture of learning outcomes comprising technical, individual and social skills in order to respond to the challenges of globalization. There are no sustainable solutions if correspondent activities stick only to new laws, regulations and constructs like frameworks and curricula: laws and regulations are only one part of complex VET systems, which must be addressed holistically. A lot of other VET system parts must predominantly be improved, if new regulations should work effectively. Hence, well qualified teachers and trainers are key in the quality discussion, but currently all countries (an exception is Belarus) are lacking behind in staff development28 including the working conditions for teachers (Umarov et al., 2011), or in other words: ‘Wage increases are essential in tackling the shortages of highly skilled vocational teachers and trainers (ETF, 2011e).
Other proposals in the region (Ukraine) suggest to strictly divide educational delivery from quality control which should be carried out from another authority (Prokopenko, 2008) and representatives of the world of work should be systematically involved in professional standard and curriculum development. Russia tends to opt for more external evaluations of the VET system and the different training programmes. Simultaneously, private sector representatives will be involved in governing boards of educational establishments (Umarov et al, 2011). However, such approaches only work well, when corresponding degrees of freedom and mechanisms for collective bargaining of the different stakeholders are well defined and institutionalized as a preferred governance model. Independent evaluation per se might remain ineffective if the ground for innovation and change is not sufficiently prepared.
Wherever possible, lifelong learning activities should be the responsibility of the stakeholders involved, mainly the social partners. Improved competitiveness and skill shortages in aging societies require urgently more efforts towards lifelong learning and specifically in continuing VET. The governments are responsible for suitable legal frameworks, which could include regulations for financing continuing training. There is good practice in Europe where the countries might benefit from. Large firms launched already further training programmes for their employees. However, the SME are still the forgotten majority, which would need better policies – including CVET - and competent further training providers which offer comprehensive technical and entrepreneurial programmes (ETF, 2013).
5.3 Close cooperation between VET institutions and business
Increasing and more sophisticated technology in the region, shorter innovation cycles and more competitiveness on global markets highlighted structural limits of conventional VET schools towards innovation and change. Financial resources are limited. However, catching up with technological development in modern crafts and industrial trades would require enormous investments which are normally not available through public budgets.
Hence, ministries and public VET institutions must understand to use the crisis better (a crisis which many VET institutions are suffering) as a chance for more cooperation with the world of work and not as another opportunity to justify outdated VET programmes and mere educational objectives. Any kind of extension of (supervised) practical learning in the economy goes in the right direction. Internships and (part time) apprenticeships enhance the
28 Despite of good intentions the retraining system for VET teachers in Azerbaijan has declined (Deij, 2011), mostly due o bureaucratic reasons.
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relevance of the skills acquired by learners and compensate missing opportunities for learners, because the schools cannot create suitable learning environments required in many newly structured professions.
As examples already reveal in all countries of the region (ETF 2011), many employers are keen to extend practical training in firms and to enhance their relations with VET schools, donate equipment and give advice for modified professional standards and curriculum development. In Ukraine, the employers have been actively promoting the modernisation of qualifications and the relevance of skills vis-à-vis the labour market demand and the recent legislative initiatives stipulates employers’ rights to participate in national education policy formulation and in reviewing the national skills standards.
Well organized firms offer excellent opportunities for continuing training either for employed or unemployed persons. They could be the first step in ‘shifting away from government-defined programmes towards a well regulated market of private and public providers that deliver training services to both working and unemployed adults’ (Sondergaard et al., 2012, p. 14). It should be avoided to implement new structures either for initial and continuing training. It’s better to use existing infrastructure in workshops of VET schools and in enterprises for both modes of training29, including the post-secondary non tertiary VET programmes, which exist in all countries and which could be within education business cooperation a sound alternative to university education.
Whenever possible in terms of legal frameworks, commitment and infrastructure VET programmes should be delivered in cooperation with the business sector, which leads to higher foundation skills (OECD, 2012). This is not easy in societies, where educators and employers approach VET differently: the first argue for more universal profiles, while the latter ‘ask for a closer link between educational and professional standards’ (ETF, 2011, p. 4) – a clear indicator that the educational debate about functions and perspectives of educational sub systems in a globalized world is not yet finished in the region. Moreover, post secondary VET and CVET might play an important role in the policy outlines for more education and business cooperation fostering vertical mobility of the learners and a diversification of VET programmes in terms of education levels and technological standards.
Entrepreneurial learning cannot be reduced to formal and/or classroom learning. The business sector is an excellent learning environment for promoting more entrepreneurial commitment. Context and sector specific advantages of the business sector should be more systematically used for this kind of learning, which should address as well the labour force of the informal economy taking into account that a lot of (micro) business is carried out by women.
5.4 Policy design should always be based on evidenc e as implementation should be linked to capacity buildin g
The complexity of modern societies makes decisions difficult on educational policies. The interrelations of the VET system with labour markets, technological developments, the economy etc. require informational support of decisions about mid and long term VET strategies in the countries. Applied research and correspondent research capacities should be available to support national decisions with evidence: ‘Evidence can take many forms, such as experience and evaluation of practice, the results of scientific analyses, quantitative
29 Ukraine could be a reference for such an approach: 300 out of 900 VET schools will be substantially rehabilitated in order to cover new training needs. Seventy are already reequipped. Moreover, schools are cooperating with the business sector and offering as well programmes in the CVET area for job seekers.
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and qualitative research, basic and applied research, and the development of statistics and indicators. Education and training are part of the diverse cultural traditions and identities of countries and they interact with a web of other policies. In these circumstances, there can be no simple prescriptions about what makes good policy or practice. This makes it all the more important to know as much as possible about what works, for whom, under what circumstances and with what outcomes (European Commission, 2007).
Research capacities exist in the larger countries and Belarus. However, decision makers should use local knowhow more systematically and formulate educational areas of their interest for research, policy monitoring and evaluation. Additionally, the smaller countries should as well enhance their database of existing knowledge about the VET system. They could use intensively specific instruments and tools such as the analytical framework created for the Torino Process and resources of donors which might assist to the further development and strengthening of local research capacities apart from applied research which is carried out by local experts.
A system for data collection for supporting policy design should not be restricted to VET issues. It must be extended to labour market information30 and to specific national characteristics in the different economic sectors in order to better identify the relevant trends for future human capital and VET system development. Moldova, which shows an impressive capacity in labour statistics should extend this expertise to the education and training sector.
5.5 Country specific areas for reform and innovatio n
The process of reform and innovation in the areas of legislation, institution building and involvement of the business sector is ongoing on the level of new policy design and on the level of implementation. This led currently to a situation that many processes of innovation are still on their way. Apart from the common and overall priority areas of governance, quality/relevance and business sector involvement there is a diverse landscape of additional country specific needs and priorities summarized in the table below.
30 A inter ministerial group in Belarus is currently working on a study about labour force demand until 2015.
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TABLE 8 ADDITIONAL COUNTRY SPECIFIC NEEDS AND PRIO RITIES FOR VET SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT31
Country Areas for VET system improvement
Armenia • Disseminate pilot reform projects to an entire VET policy • Social Dialogue – effective participation of social partners
Azerbaijan • NQF implementation (creation of sector committees with more
business representatives) • Design new VET strategy (including policy monitoring and school
networking) and establish a workforce development agency
Belarus • NQF design (including occupational standards and sector
committees) • Innovation for teacher training, VET curricula, entrepreneurship
Georgia • Avoid dead ends in VET (pathways) • Teacher training
Moldova • Funding (restructure school networks, cost effectiveness, public-
private initiatives, school autonomy on spending) • Lifelong learning including small companies and NQF
Russia • VET in oblasts (regions) with economic decline • Vocational guidance and more labour market information
Ukraine • NQF implementation by 2014 • VET and the labour market (Career guidance, CVET, skills forecasting
methodologies)
6. CONCLUSIONS
The influence of drivers like markets, technological development, employment, migration etc. on education systems in the transition period is getting more visible in the countries. Such drivers strongly require further adjustments in the VET systems, which will trigger new policy design and a more effective implementation of reforms and innovation.
In all the countries, VET tries to shift from merely input driven to a demand side orientation. Georgia is more advanced than other countries, because per capita financing, accreditation and quality assurance are already introduced and private players have a stronger voice in VET and in higher education. Russia with strong employer involvement is currently implementing similar schemes and fosters regionalization. Such new tools and instruments for steering the system more effectively will gain ground in the future.
Moreover, many VET schools still offer outdated programmes or have insufficient enrolment rates due to the prevailing trend to higher education. Hence, the optimization of the school network plays a crucial role in reforming the VET systems. The countries should carefully reflect if some schools could be closed down and how to move from pilot innovations to mainstreaming of reform and innovation32. A more efficient school network could make resources available for improvements of VET centres which could be converted in centres of excellence in one or two professional areas offering not only initial but as well continuing
31 The following issues are exhaustively presented in the country specific reports of the Torino Process 2012. 32 Ukraine reduced already the VET school network from nearly 1,200 to approximately 900 schools.
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training. Per capita financing and funding correlated to performance indicators (established quality assurance systems, tracer studies, amounts of educational services sold etc.) are additional instruments to spend resources where they will be an investment fostering remarkable educational outcomes.
It should be (easier) possible that VET schools generate income through additional educational services for individuals, enterprises or the local community33. Too a certain extent, such incomes could improve the salaries of (low paid) teachers and to update the infrastructure of the schools. This is already legally possible in Georgia, Russia and Ukraine but partly complemented with bureaucratic procedures.
VET has an image problem in all countries. Tremendously increasing enrolment rates in higher education in the last decade ended in a considerable mismatch on the labour markets. As stated for Russia, Ukraine and Moldova (ETF, 2011a, 2011b, 2011c) higher education graduates crowded out achievers of secondary education and occupy correspondent workplaces.
An increasing share of these graduates is unemployed and reluctant to work under certain working conditions. This gives initial VET, continuing VET and entrepreneurial learning a growing importance if it’s accompanied by quality improvement of the training programmes. Awareness campaigns, invitations to enterprises, discussions with employers, decent working conditions, fairs and career guidance in early school years are suitable instruments to influence educational streaming apart of policy measures like central entrance exams for access to higher education and per capita financing which funds mid term declining shares of new entrants in universities.
However, the attractiveness of VET is as well connected to the returns of individual investments in education. As long as higher education careers lead to substantially higher returns (and reputation) and market mechanisms react apparently not very flexible on the shortages of blue collar workers in many professional areas, there will be a high risk that VET and the respective professions will remain second best in all countries of the region. Without adequate policy interventions this may lead to further polarization of skills in the region in the long run.
Finally, the EU can support (through invitations to Member States and policy dialogue) insights and policy learning of decision makers that the knowledge society and correspondent qualification profiles in the world of work have not necessarily a robust and exclusive correlation, but depend on national contexts, characteristics and structures of the economy and future strategies for socio-economic development.
33 In Ukraine, only 10% of the budget is spent for institutional development in VET (schools, infrastructure, etc.). The rest goes to salaries, scholarships, food, etc. (ETF, 2011d).
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