caustic & chlorine outlook in russia /eastern europe · 2019-11-22 · caustic & chlorine...

Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe

Sergey Yaremenko,MRC (Market Report Company)

4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls3-4 June 2008, Kiev, Radisson SAS Hotel

Market Report Company

We cooperate with 50 biggest worldwide chemical and

petrochemical companies from TOP-100

2

Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe

Sergey Yaremenko,MRC (Market Report Company)

4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls3-4 June 2008, Kiev, Radisson SAS Hotel

Agenda

General figures for CEE & CIS (macroeconomics, PVC, caustic soda)

World Caustic Soda Market

Outlook of Russian production till 2012

4

Biggest Russian consumers of Caustic Soda

Caustic Soda Market in CEE & Russia

Current Russian Caustic Soda Production

Agenda

General figures for CEE & CIS (macroeconomics, PVC, caustic soda)

5

Population, 000 people

6

-0,27%-0,33%-0,44%-0,46%-0,32%-0,27%-0,25%-0,35%-2,06%-0,44%Increase, %

174 397174 873175 454176 234177 043177 605178 087178 527179 147182 914183 717Total in EE

1 3321 3361 3401 3441 3481 3521 3561 3561 3611 3671 372Estonia

10 19310 19710 20110 20610 23210 22210 20710 20210 20110 22410 273Czech Republic

4 6514 6254 5994 5734 5474 5214 5084 4454 4404 4404 380Croatia

44 19445 39145 68846 18446 48146 92947 28047 62248 00348 45748 923Ukraine

78 36877 12475 88074 63572 92972 06571 15270 70068 70065 66766 400Turkey

2 0052 0042 0022 0011 9991 9981 9951 9951 9941 9921 989Slovenia

5 3695 3725 3755 3785 3885 3855 3825 3805 3915 4035 401Slovakia

8 2208 2058 1948 1838 1728 1618 1528 1368 13010 65110 637Serbia and Montenegro

20 82220 97521 12821 28121 55321 64321 68621 73421 79522 40822 435Romania

140 027140 726141 425142 124142 827143 500144 200145 000145 600146 300147 000Russia

38 01338 03938 06538 09138 10438 14238 18038 19538 23238 25138 256Poland

2 1112 1022 0942 0852 0762 0682 0622 0492 0382 0352 026Macedonia

3 3483 3633 3783 3933 4123 4193 4363 4543 4693 4813 500Lithuania

2 2492 2612 2732 2842 3042 3082 3132 3252 3392 3552 373Latvia

9 9599 98410 00910 03410 06310 08510 10710 13010 15910 18810 211Hungary

3 9303 9163 9013 8873 8733 8583 8363 8323 8283 7983 781Bosnia and Herzegovina

7 4507 5107 5697 6297 7417 7647 7877 8237 8687 9138 170Bulgaria

9 5509 5949 6389 6819 7509 7509 8009 8499 8999 9519 990Belarus'

2 010 f2 009 f2 008 f2 007 e2 0062 0052 0042 0032 0022 0012 000Country

Source: World Bank, MRC

Source: IMF, World Bank

Eastern Europe: GDP (PPP) in 2007, bln. USD

7

Hungary

208

Poland

604

Turkey

723Belarus'

92

Slovenia

51

Romania

230

Bulgaria

81

Czech Rep

253

Russia

1 908

Kazahstan

154

Ukraine

374

Slovakia

104

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 30 60 90 120 150

Population, mln.

GDP per capita (PPP),

'000 USD

Kazahstan 21

Poland472

Hungary119

Czech Rep60

Romania89

Belarus'12

Ukraine156Azerbaijan

24

Estonia5

43Slovakia Ex-Yugoslavia

100

Russia996

Turkey894

Lithuania26

0

3

6

9

12

15

0% 5% 10% 15%

Market increase 06-10,%

PVC per capita, kg

WorldWorld

ChinaChina

Western EuropeWestern Europe

Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC

Forecast: consumption of PVC in 2010, KT

8

Agenda

9

The World Caustic Soda Market

The world market

CMAI: Asia will continue to add a lot of chlor-alkali capacities.

There are no major capacity additions scheduled in the European and American regions until 2008.

The continued acceleration of chlor-alkali capacity expansion in China to support the vinyls industry is expected to result in a caustic surplus in this region.

World Caustic Soda market, mn mt

0

20

40

60

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Others NA EE & CIS WE Asia

Source: Harriman Chemsult

10

Major Caustic Soda flows, 1996,2000,2006 (000 mt)


11

The biggest world importers & exporters


12

Agenda

Caustic Soda Market in CEE & Russia

13

Bulgaria 41

Poland305

Czech Rep127

Romania172

Belarus'56

Ukraine193

Estonia5

74Slovakia

Serbia32

Russia1168

Turkey293

Lithuania8

0

3

6

9

12

15

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Market increase, 06-10,%

Caustic Soda per capita, kg

WorldWorld


Forecast: Caustic Soda consumption in 2010, KT

14

Poland

Consumption of Chlorine, 2007, %

Chlorinated

aromatics

4%

Vinyls

46%

Isocyanates

6%Propylene oxide

6%

Others

4%

Other organic

chemicals

10%

Inorganic

chemicals

24%

Consumption of Caustic Soda, 2007, %

Organic

chemicals

6%

Inorganic

chemicals

32%

Pulp and paper

17%

Soaps and

detergents

7%

Textiles/Rayon

7%

Others

31%

The major caustic consumers are sodium silicate and STPP producers (one of the biggest are ZC Alwernia and Wizow).


15

Hungary


Isocyanates

41%

Vinyls

47%Other organic

chemicals

2%

Phosgene

derivatives

4%

Inorganic

chemicals

3%

Others 3%


Inorganic

chemicals

14%

Organic chemicals

17%

Alumina

44%

Soaps and

detergents

7%

Others

12%

Pulp and paper

2%

Textiles/Rayon

4%

One of the biggest consumers: Alumina ( Ajka Aluminipari 305,000mt; MOTIM - 75,000mt), Pulp & Paper (Dunapack)


16

Romania


Others

11%

Inorganic

chemicals

14%

EDC for export

3%

Vinyls

41%

Other C2

Chloroethanes

15%

C1

Chloromethanes

3%

Chlorinated

aromatics

3%

Propylene oxide

7%


Inorganic

chemicals

32%

Organic

chemicals

23%

Alumina

14%

Soaps &

detergents

9%

Others

13%

Pulp and paper

7%

Textiles/Rayon

2%

One of the biggest consumers is alumina producer BBG Alum, Tulcea (600,000mt/year)


17

Russia


Chlorinated

aromatics

1%

Other organic

chemicals

8%

Others 16%

Isocyanates

1%

Non -ferrous

3%

Hydrochloric

acid 5%

VCM/EDC

35%

Methylene

chloride

5%

Epichlorhydrin

7%Chloroform

4%

Pulp & Paper

7%


Refinery

6%

Textiles

5%

Iron 1%

Non-ferrous

12%

Energetics

9%

Chemicals

35%

Pulp & Papers

28%

Others 4%

Source: MRC

18

We have completed TOP-100 of Russian Caustic Soda Consumers

Agenda

Biggest Russian consumers of Caustic Soda

19

Top-10 Russian consumers: whole market

47,70%529 002Total

2,30%25 286LCSSayanskchemplastSverdlovsk oblast'non-ferrousBogoslovskiy aluminium plant10

2,70%29 879LCSChemprom, VolgogradSaratov oblast'textilesBalkovskiy plant of fibre materials9

4,00%43 791LCSAzot, NovomoskovskLeningrad oblast'chemicalsFosforit8

4,00%44 510LCSChemprom, KemerovoKemerovo oblast'chemicalsAzot, Kemerovo7

4,00%44 858LCSCaustic, SterlitamakSamara oblast'chemicalsKuybyshevazot6

4,80%53 566LCSCaustic, SterlitamakVolgograd oblast'chemicalsVolzhskiy Orgsintez5

5,00%55 928LCSUsolyechempromKomypulp and paperMondi Business Syktyvkarskiy LPK4

5,10%56 257LCSUsolyechempromArhangelsk oblast'pulp and paperArkhangelsk pulp&paper plant3

6,60%72 594LCSSayanskchemplastSverdlovsk oblast'non-ferrousSiberian-Ural aluminium company2

9,20%102 333LCSIlimchempromIrkutsk oblast'pulp and paperUst-Ulimskiy pulp&paper plant1

Market share, %Volume, MTProductMain SupplierLocationSectorCompany#

20

Source: MRC

Top-10 Russian consumers in Pulp & Paper

27,50%304 962Total

0,60%6 200LCSSoda-ChloratPerm' oblast'Kama paper plant10

0,60%6 435LCSChemprom, NovocheboksarskSverdlovsk oblast'Turinskaya paper plant9

0,60%6 783LCSSibur-NeftechemKaliningrad oblast'Cepruss8

1,10%12 292LCSSibur-NeftechemKareliaSegezhskiy pulp&paper plant7

1,70%18 681LCSUsolyechempromIrkutsk oblast'Baykalskiy pulp&paper plant 6

1,70%19 030LCSCaustic, SterlitamakKaliningrad oblast'Nemansk pulp&paper plant5

1,90%21 023LCSSibur-NeftechemArhangelsk oblast'Kotlasskiy pulp&paper plant4

5,00%55 928LCSUsolyechempromKomyMondi Business Syktyvkarskiy LPK3

5,10%56 257LCSUsolyechempromArhangelsk oblast'Arkhangelsk pulp&paper plant2

9,20%102 333LCSIlimchempromIrkutsk oblast'Ust-Ulimskiy pulp&paper plant1

Market share, %Volume, MTProductMain SupplierLocationCompany#

21

Source: MRC

Top-10 Russian consumers in Chemicals

23,10%255 864Total

1,00%11 342LCSCaustic, SterlitamakBaskortostanSalavatnefteorgsintez10

1,30%14 086LCSChemprom, VolgogradTula oblast'Schekinoazot9

1,40%15 359LCSCaustic, SterlitamakTatarstanKazan factory of synthetic rubber8

1,60%18 142LCSKirovo-Chepetskiy chemical plantPerm' oblast'Metafraks7

1,70%19 275LCSChemprom, NovocheboksarskSamara oblast'Tolyattiazot6

1,80%20 057LCSCaustic, SterlitamakTula oblast'Procter end Gamble, Novomoskovsk5

2,20%24 444LCSCaustic, SterlitamakTatarstanNizhnekamskneftechem4

4,00%43 791LCSAzot, NovomoskovskLeningrad oblast'Fosforit3

4,00%44 510LCSChemprom, KemerovoKemerovo oblast'Azot, Kemerovo2

4,00%44 858LCSCaustic, SterlitamakSamara oblast'Kuybyshevazot1


22

Source: MRC

Top-10 Russian consumers in Non-ferrous

12,90%142 285Total

0,20%2 558LCSChemprom, VolgogradKabardino-BalkariaGidrometallurg7

0,50%5 110LCSKirovo-Chepetskiy chemical plantMurmansk oblast'Apatit6

0,60%6 093LCSSayanskchemplastIrkutsk oblast'Rusal Bratsk5

0,70%8 116LCSCaustic, SterlitamakChelyabinsk' oblast'Ufaleynikel'4

2,00%22 528LCSSayanskchemplastSverdlovsk oblast'Sredneuralskiy copper factory3

2,30%25 286LCSSayanskchemplastSverdlovsk oblast'Bogoslovskiy aluminium plant2

6,60%72 594LCSSayanskchemplastSverdlovsk oblast'Siberian-Ural aluminium company1


23

Source: MRC

Agenda

Current Russian Caustic Soda Production

24

Source: MRC

Russian caustic market, 00-10

Consumption, 000 DMT

0

700

1400

2100

1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 f 2009 f 2010 f

Export, 000 DMT

0

100

200

300

400

1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 f 2009 f 2010 f

Production, 000 DMT

0

700

1400

2100

1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 f 2009 f 2010 f

Import, 000 DMT

0

20

40

60

1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 f 2009 f 2010 f

25

Production of Caustic Soda in Russia, 000 dmt

2,3%3,0%6,6%8,7%-7,3%-3,8%-3,9%-Increase, %

1291 2661 2291 1531 0611 1451 1901 238Total

4344423735363740Chemprom, Kemerovo

9592998176696867Chemprom, Novocheboksarsk

4261738176757274Azot, Novomoskovsk

8179806846607081Kirovo-Chepetsky Plant

8792868986858396Sibur-Neftechem, Dzerzhynsk

989684656293100105Usolyechemprom

162111129119115114113101Sayanskchemplast

232216210203195177180194Caustic, Volgograd

250249239224213222227238Caustic, Sterlitamak

20072006200520042003200220012000Producer

26

Source: MRC

Source: MRC

Russian caustic market in 2007

Consumption, 000 DMT

0

25

50

75

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Production, 000 DMT

0

30

60

90

120


Export, 000 DMT

0

7

14

21

28


Import, 000 DMT

0

1

2

3

4


27

Source: MRC

28

Russian caustic market in 2007

Export to Production,%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

08

Import to Consumption,%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%


08

Production in 2007, %

others

16%

Kirovo-Chepetsk

6%Sibur-Neftechem

7%Chemprom,

Volgograd

7%

Usolyechemprom

8%

Chemprom,

Novocheboksarsk

7%

Sayanskchemplast

13%

Caustic.

Volgograd

17%

Caustic, Sterlitamak

18%

Export in 2007, %

Georgia 2% others 5%

Finland 2%

Azerbaijan

9% Ukraine

38%

Turkey

30%

Kazakhstan

14%

1 294.60118.90111.60111.10101.0092.30109.50108.10103.80108.00113.40101.30115.60Total

47.403.703.403.903.603.303.504.503.704.005.303.505.00others

41.703.503.503.503.102.402.302.303.203.704.804.604.80Azot, Novomoskovsk

42.704.603.503.702.803.203.603.703.003.403.803.503.90Chemprom, Kemerovo

72.306.606.106.806.206.406.505.705.606.406.304.305.40Ilimchemprom

80.708.806.506.407.407.506.505.705.806.705.806.307.30Kirovo-Chepetsky Plant

86.707.407.306.106.607.706.807.006.007.908.507.408.00Sibur-Neftechem, Dzerzhynsk

87.207.506.806.107.607.107.907.807.406.507.207.707.60Chemprom, Volgograd

94.608.107.907.807.807.608.107.508.208.008.207.408.00Chemprom, Novocheboksarsk

97.809.909.708.409.306.608.409.006.008.307.105.509.60Usolyechemprom

162.3014.5014.1014.2011.608.9014.6014.1013.7014.3014.4013.3014.60Sayanskchemplast

231.5021.3020.9021.1015.4018.1020.3019.7019.3017.7019.9017.8020.00Caustic, Volgograd

249.7023.0021.9023.1019.6013.5021.0021.1021.9021.1022.1020.0021.40Caustic, Sterlitamak

2007Dec07

Nov07

Oct07

Sep07

Aug07

Jul07

Jun07

May07

Apr07

Mar07

Feb07

Jan07Producer

Russian Production in 2007

29

Source: MRC

Source: MRC

PVC-S, KT

0

200

400

600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Production Export Import

PVC-E, KT

0

40

80

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Russian PVC resin market: time of Import

30

+25%

+80%

Source: MRC

Production, KT

0

15

30

45

60


08

Import, KT

0

10

20

30

40


08

Import to Apparent Consumption,%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%


08

Russian PVC resin market in 2007

Apparent Consumption, KT

0

20

40

60

80


08

31

!

Source: MRC

Import in 2007, %

others

7%

South Korea

21%

China

44%Norway

8%

Hungary

8%

Netherlands

2%

Taiwan

7%

Romania

3%

Import in 2006, %

others

15%

South Korea

22%

China

31%

Finland

8% Norway

9%

Turkey

5%

Netherlands

5%

Hungary

5%

By Producers, 2007, %

others

12%Oltchim

3%

LG

11%

Xinjiang Tianye

36%

Hydro

10% Hanwha

11%

Tianjin Dagu

5%

BorsodChem

8%

Formosa

7%

By Producers, 2006, %

others

35%

LG

11%

Xinjiang Tianye

14%

Hydro

10%

Hanwha

11%

BorsodChem

5%Finnplast

8%

Shandong

6%

32

Import of PVC-S: Asia wins

53%

72%

Source: MRC

- 8%

EUR/RUB USD/RUB UAH/RUB

EUR/USD

- 9%+ 6%

Currency rate is an additional market driver

33

+16%

Additional advantage of Asian & US producers in

Europe

Agenda

24

Outlook of Russian production till 2012

Russian Caustic Soda Market

Caustic Soda market till 2012, dmt

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Production Export Import

34

Source: MRC

New PVC project

Source: Nikochem

35

Caustic Soda Balance till 2015: Nikochem

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Production Capacities, Kta Caustic Soda Demand, 000 DMT Caustic Soda Production, 000 DMT

Big hope on Komi Alumina project (1.4 mln. MT or 150,000 mt of Caustic Soda)

Source: MRC

37

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PVC demand PVC production Ethylene Demand

Caustic Soda Equivalent Caustic Soda Production Caustic Soda Demand

Caustic Soda Balance till 2012: MRC

KT

Caustic and ethylene Caustic and ethylene –– key limitations key limitations for Russian PVC producersfor Russian PVC producersChlorine Caustic

Ethylene

EDC VCM PVC

Oxychloride Hydrochloric acid

Oxygen

1 MT1,03 MT0,57 MT

0,43 MT

0,66 MT

Production chain of PVC

38

ownnot-10026-50Pervomaysk

suppliedstable104104150370-Karpatneftechem

ownvariable--152727Chemprom Volgograd

SaltEthylene deliveries

Ethylene needs

Chlorine production

Chlorine needs

VCM capacity

PVC capacity

Producers

780

56

70

77

181

193

103 ownvariable103150270250Sayanskchemplast

--230371644670Total*

ownvariable-142624Usolechemprom

suppliedacetylene-254547Azot

suppliedstable15203642Sibur-Neftechim

ownvariable40428080Nikos

ownvariable7289160150Caustik Sterlitamak

* without Kalush

Source: MRC

39

Current PVC production balance, KT

Resume

40

• Eastern European production balance generally will not change in future

• New PVC production in Russia will increase the supply of Caustic Soda

• Export of Caustic Soda will be correlated with Komi project performance

• We will not observe the deficit of Caustic Soda in Russia till 2012

• Chinese producers have to find the balance in chlorine /caustic soda

Sergey Yaremenko,Managing Director,

Market Report Company

[email protected]; www.mrcplast.comMoscow +7 495 543 91 94; Kiev +38 044 599 29 50

Thank you!

caustic & chlorine outlook in russia /eastern europe · 2019-11-22 · caustic & chlorine...

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