dr. robert pepper presentation iic montreal 10 2009
DESCRIPTION
Dr. Pepper's presentation at International Institute of Communications in Montreal.TRANSCRIPT
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 1
Towards an Exabyte Broadband World
Robert PepperVice President Global Technology Policy
IIC 40th Annual Meeting26 October 2009
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 2
The History of Internet Projections, Part I
Analyst projections in 1996
Actuals
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 3
The History of Internet Projections, Part II
Analyst projections in 2001
Actuals
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 4
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Based on Cisco’s methodology and independent analysts’ projections (VNI Forecast), WW consumer surveys and feedback (VNI Pulse), and global Service Provider network data (VNI Usage), Cisco is developing a unique and comprehensive view of IP networking growth and trends worldwide.
Global IP Traffic Growth
How often do you upload video you created to a
public website?
Analyzing Residential, Business and Mobile IP Networking Trends
0
25,000
50,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PB
/mo Mobility
Business InternetBusiness IP WANConsumer InternetConsumer IPTV/CATV
46% CAGR 2007-2012
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 5
The Zettabyte Scale1 Petabyte
1,000 Terabytes or 250,000 DVDs
1 Exabyte 1,000 Petabytes or
250 million DVDs
1 Zettabyte 1,000 Exabytes or
250 billion DVDs
1 Yottabyte 1,000 Zettabytes or
250 trillion DVDs
5 ExabytesA transcript of all words ever spoken
20 YottabytesA holographic snapshot of the earth’s surface
200 TerabytesA digital library of all books ever written in any language
175 ExabytesThe amount of data that will cross the Internet in 2010 alone
150 ExabytesThe amount of data that has traversed the Internet since its creation
100 PetabytesThe amount of data produced in a single minute by the new particle collider at CERN
100 ExabytesA video recording of the all the meetings that took place last year across the world
66 ZettabytesThe amount of visual information conveyed from the eyes to the brain of the entire human race in a single year
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 6
Global IP Traffic GrowthIP traffic will increase 6X from 2007 to 2012In 2012, half a zettabyte will cross the global network
46% CAGR 2007-2012
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 7
Global Consumer Internet Traffic MixVideo will be nearly 50% of traffic by 2012
41% CAGR 2007-2012
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012
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Global Mobile Data Traffic GrowthVideo will account for 64% of mobile traffic by 2013
131% CAGR 2008 - 2013
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2008-2013
64%
10%
19%
7%
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 9
Unpredictability of Traffic Growth: An Era of Minority Rule?
4 million consumers
downloading 2 HD movies per
month
50 million consumers watching 50
YouTube videos per
month
Source: Cisco, 2008
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Shift in Peak-to-Average Ratio
Source: Cisco Service Control Engine, 2008
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Dimensions of Broadband
Bandwidth—”speed” Latency Jitter Symmetry Bursting Other…
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Matching Broadband to Applications“Fit for Purpose” Networks
Bandwidth
Low
High
HighLow
TelepresenceVoice
HD-IPTV
Sensitiveto Latency
StreamingAudio
Gaming(LD)
Gaming(HD)
DownloadVideo
StreamingVideo
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Broadband Quality ScoreA global study of broadband quality
September 2009
Sponsored by
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 14
2000 2005 2010 2015
Broa
dban
d Q
ualit
y
TWO WAVES OF BROADBAND SERVICES
Social networking LD video streaming Basic video chatting Small file sharing SD IPTV
Visual networking HD video streaming Consumer telepresence Large file sharing HD IPTV
Requirements Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms
Requirements• Download 11.25Mbps• Upload 5Mbps• Latency 60ms
Today
Tomorrow
What the study established in 2008Changing quality requirements
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 15
Broadband Quality Score (BQS)
BQS is calculated based on normalized values of:
Download and Upload throughput, and Latency
24 million records sourced from actual tests from Speedtest.net (Ookla) during May 2008 and May - July 2009
Weights assigned to each factor for today’s and tomorrow’s (3 to 5 years) applications.
BQS (today) = 55% Download + 23% Upload + 22%Latency
BQS (tmrw) = 45% Download + 32% Upload + 23%Latency
BQS THRESHOLD CALCULATION
BQS threshold: 30 Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms
BQS threshold: 50 Download 11.25Mbps Upload 5Mbps Latency 60ms
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 16
Ready for tomorrow
Comfortably enjoying today’s applications
Meeting needs of today’s applications
Below today’s applications threshold
Leapfrog Opportunity
BQS by countries 2008
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 17
Ready for tomorrow
Comfortably enjoying today’s applications
Meeting needs of today’s applications
Below today’s applications threshold
Leapfrog Opportunity
BQS by countries 2009
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Regional improvement of BQS
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 19
BQS
0
40
60
20
80
100
BROADBAND LEADERSHIP MATRIX
BQS
0
40
60
20
80
100
Penetration (% Households)20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%
PENETRATION LEADERS
CATCH-UP
QUALITYLEADERS
LEAP-FROG
Broadband Leadership - Redefined
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 20
BROADBAND LEADERSHIP MATRIX (TOP-20)
1. S Korea2. Japan3. Hong Kong4. Sweden5. Switzerland6. Netherlands7. Singapore8. Luxembourg9. Denmark10. Norway11. Malta12. Iceland13. Australia14. Lithuania15. United States16. Ireland17. Canada18. France19. Estonia20. Belgium
QUALITYLEADERS
PENETRATION LEADERS
CATCH-UP
Broadband Leadership Top 20
100 =BQS actual value 66
N.B. All BQS values have been normalised to a scale of 0 – 100 with 66 = 100
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 21
Demand/Usage Driving Change
User driven demand for video Application, “fit for purpose” driven
Differentiated services
Not all bits are created equal
Implications for networksFixed and mobile
Investment
Architecture
Managing for differentiation Implications for traditional content industries
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-10-2009-1 22