dr. peter suppan | imk-ifu
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU
KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association
KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Campus Alpine, Germany
www.kit.edu
Linking Measurements with Modeling Tools -A challenge for air pollution research
Peter [email protected]
2 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of
Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Introduction
Background
Examples
Conclusions
Overview
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
PAN American Health Organization, 2005
Region Percentage change Reference
Asia 4.9% (2.3-7.6) HEI, 2004
Europe 6.0% (4.0-8.0) Katsouyanni, 2001
Latin America 6.1% (1.6-10.7) PAHO, 2005*United States 2.1% (0.9-3.3) Dominici, 2003
Worldwide 6.5% (5.1-7.6) Stieb, 2002
Impact on Health
* Based on studies in Mexico City, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile
PM10 and
Mortality Risk
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Impact on Climate Change
Source: Peringe Grennfelt. Air pollution & Climate Change. Two sides of the same coin. Chapter 9. ISBN 978-91-620-1278-6
Beijing
Shanghai
NASA/GODDARD / NYT
Atmospheric
Brown Clouds
(ABC)
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
0
50
100
150
200
250
Kar
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PM
10[µ
g/m
³]
Asia Latin America Africa Europe N.America
Annual average PM10 concentrations (µg/m³)
Impact on Economy
Reduction benefit is 10 times higher as for ozone, e.g. Mexico City about $2 Bill.
Molina and Molina, 2002
M. Krzyzanowski & H-G. Mucke, WHOupdate by Jordan et al, CEPAL
Economical
Benefit
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Land use
Energy
Mobility
Climate Change
Air Quality
Health Impact
What Affects Air Quality ?
Integrated Approach
Mexico City
Beijing
Bogotá
São Paulo
Santiago de Chile
Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU
KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association
7 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of
Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Land use
Energy
Mobility
Climate Change
Air Quality
Health Impact
What Affects Air Quality ?
The complex interactions of causes of emissions – transmission - air pollution - deposition / exposure and climate change need detailed
investigations on the causal chain
Only multidisciplinary approaches allow a holistic analysis
8 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of
Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Emission Data
Integrated Approach
Measurement Data
0 30000 60000-500
500
1500
2500
AL
TIT
UD
E A
BO
VE
PU
EB
LA
[m
]
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
P6
P7
P8
-
1
2
Indicator
Scenario
StakeholderHealth Impact
Mortality
……………
………………….
Subclinical Effects
Chem
Chem
Traffic Data
Urban Development
Air Quality &
Climate Change
Approach
Air Quality
9 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of
Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
ScalesGlobalRegional (meso)Local (micro)
Scales Pollutants
Global GHG, O3
Regional O3, PM
Local PM, NO2, CO
Problem: Scales
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
In-situ measurements
Active & passive measurements
Remote sensing measurements
Horizontal & vertical
Aircraft measurements
Air pollution dispersion models on all scales
Box, Gaussian, Eulerian & Lagrangian models
Models for different compartments
Hydrology, biosphere, soil, …
Measurement & Modeling Tools
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/04/23/article-1268225-094360F3000005DC-143_964x641.jpg
http://de.academic.ru/dic.nsf/dewiki/965468
14 April: eruption plume rose to up to 9.5 km height deflected to the east by westerly winds
16 April: pulsating eruptive plume reaches above 8 km, with overall height of 5 km
17 April: eruption plume loaded with tephra (ash) rises to more than 8 km
Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (E15)
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Ash Product
16 April, 00:00 UCT
16 April, 18:00 UCT
Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU
KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association
13 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of
Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
ash
normal, aged polluted air
large depolarisationindicates ash particles
Measurement Results
Ultra-light Aircraft
average absorption equivalent to black
carbon mass in the seven channels
MULIS
One-our average of particle backscatter
coefficient (left)
linear depolarisation ratio (right)
Schäfer, K., et al., 2011: Influences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic plume on air quality in the northern Alpine region.Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 8555–8575. www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/8555/2011/DOI:10.5194/acp-11-8555-2011.
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
ash boundary layerclouds
Measurement Results
interaction of the ash cloud with the PBL:
CL31 observations at Augsburg
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Simulations
MCCM simulation for April 17, 2010 00 GMT
µg/m³
appr. 3.5 km above ground
Cross section of the area of Munich
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
model too fast
model too slow
Measurements vs Simulations
Ceilometer results(dots)
vs
MCCM simulations (colours)
Emeis, S., et al., 2011: Measurement and simulation of the 16/17 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash layer dispersion in the northern Alpine region. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 2689–2701. www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/2689/2011/ DOI:10.5194/acp-11-2689-2011
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Example: Mixing layer height
Work in progress
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
S
N
OW
Wind,turbulence profilesLarge SODAR(METEK DSDR3x7)frequency: 1500 Hz
Wind, turbulence, temperature profilesSODAR-RASS(METEK)acoustic frequ.: 1500 – 2200 Hzradio fr.: 474 MHz
Particle backscatterCeilometer(Vaisala CL31)wave length: 910 nm range: 4000 mresolution: 5 m
Small City: Augsburg
Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU
KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association
19 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of
Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Source: Stefan Emeis, KIT
Remote Sensing
4°C 7°C
8°C
7°C
300 m
40 m
7°C
2°C
RASS SODAR Ceilometer
Wiegner, M., et al., 2006: Mixing Layer Height over Munich, Germany: Variability and comparisons of different methodologies. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 111, D13201
Schäfer, K., et al., 2008: Atmospheric influences and local variability of air pollution close to a motorway in an Alpine valley during winter. MeteorologischeZeitschrift, 17, 3, 297-309
electromagnetic & acoustic backscatter optical backscatter
RASS, SODAR & Ceilometer measurements
0 m
2000 m
20 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of
Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Time
Process Studies
Model comparison(9x9km² grid size)
Mixing layer height and air pollution
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Example: Climate Change
Work in progress
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Biogenic Emissions
Water availability and monoterpene emissions
(Mediterranean holm oak forest)
Mm
olC
m-2
a-1
Mm
olC
m-2
a-1
Grote, R., et al., 2010: Process-based modellingof seasonality and drought stress in isoprenoidemission models. Biogeosciences 7, 257-274.)
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Threshold exceedances in the future
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
Ozone (g/m3)
Fre
qu
en
cy
1991-2000
2031-2039
Distribution of daily O3 maximum
Regional Climate Change Impact
Impact on ozone concentrations
Forkel, R., & Knoche, R., 2006: Regional climate change and its impacts on photooxidantconcentrations in southern Germany: Simulations with a coupled regional climate-chemistry model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, No.D12,D12302, doi:10.1029/2005JD006748 (13pp.)
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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Aerosol Feedback Mechanisms
Impact on PM10 (July 2006 - monthly mean)
Impact on radiation(July 2006 - monthly mean)
Forkel, R., etal., 2012: Effect of aerosol-radiation feedback on regional air quality - A case study with WRF/Chem. Atmospheric Environment, 45, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv. 2011.10.009 (special issue about the AQMEII initiative)
Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU
KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association
25 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of
Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Measurements are mainly representative for a certain location
Models can integrate locations and can overcome the scale problem
Measurement & modeling platforms have to go hand in hand
Only holistic and multidisciplinary approaches can help to get a deeper knowledge about air quality & climate change issues
Only this understanding allows investigations in future developments and recommendations for decision makers and stakeholders to improve air quality and to limit climate change
Conclusions
26 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of
Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian
Thank you very much for your attention
Cooperation Partners
Bhola R. Gurjar Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Department of Civil Engineering, Roorkee , IndiaStefan Norra Institute of Mineralogy and Geochemistry (IMG), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Yuesi Wang, Guiqian Tang, Xin Jinyuan Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), BeijingLongyi Shao Chinese University of Mining and Technology (CUMTB), BeijingKuang Cen Chinese University of Geosciences (CUG), BeijingJose Agustín García, Gerardo Ruiz Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), Mexico CityRainer Schmitz, Ricardo Muñoz Universidad de Chile (UdC), Santiago de ChileBarbara Lenz, Andreas Justen German Aerospace Center (DLR), Berlin, GermanyUlrich Franck Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Leipzig, GermanyAnnette Peters, Alexandra Schneider Helmholtz Zentrum München (HMGU), Institute for Epidemiology, Munich, GermanyJohannes Rehner, Ricardo Jordán Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CEPAL) in the UN