U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THEECONOMYSEPTEMBER 2020
The most severe recession in economic history, but also, the shortest.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Moody’s Analytics
MOST SEVERE COLLAPSE IN GDP ON RECORD
-5.4 -5.9-10.0
-5.0 -4.2 -4.8-8.0-6.1
-3.6 -1.6
-8.4
-32.9-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1948
Q2
1954
Q2
1960
Q2
1966
Q2
1972
Q2
1978
Q2
1984
Q2
1990
Q2
1996
Q2
2002
Q2
2008
Q2
2014
Q2
2020
Q2
U.S. Real GDP, Annualized Growth (%)
U.S. Real GDP, Annualized Growth(%)
RECORD JOB LOSSES BUT LABOR MARKET RECOVERY HAS BEGUN
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Payroll Employment (Millions)
22.2 million job losses from Feb to April
As of July, 9.3 million jobs (42%) returned
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.6
1.5
1.2
0.6
0.7
4.0
-0.3
-0.3
-1.1
-0.6
-1.4
-2.4
-2.8
-2.3
-2.9
-8.3
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Financial activities
Information
Construction
Transportation & warehousing
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Education & healthcare
Professional & business services
Office-using employment
Leisure & hospitality
Change in jobs Feb to April, millions Change in jobs April to July, millions
STRIKING A DEVASTATING BLOW TO THE LABOR MARKETU.S. Employment
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: CoStar Group; Reis; Cushman & Wakefield Research
VACANCY ON THE RISE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR
HOWEVER, MARKETS REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT
13.0%
4.8%
6.4% 6.4%
13.7%
5.3%
6.8% 6.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Office Industrial Shopping Centers Multifamily
2019 Q4 2020 Q2
17.3%
13.7%
10.6%
5.3%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2009
Q2
2010
Q2
2011
Q2
2012
Q2
2013
Q2
2014
Q2
2015
Q2
2016
Q2
2017
Q2
2018
Q2
2019
Q2
2020
Q2
Office Industrial
JOB LOSSES STARTING TO IMPACT LEASING FUNDAMENTALSU.S. Vacancy Rates, Various Property Types
CAPITAL MARKETS LARGELY IN WAIT & SEE MODE
Source: Real Capital Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield Research
SALES VOLUME IN Q2 AT LOWEST POINT SINCE 2011
Property Type
Sales Volume Change YOY
(2020 Q2)Industrial -45%
Office -72%
Apartment -72%
Retail -76%
Hotel -91%
All -69%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
2000
Q2
2001
Q2
2002
Q2
2003
Q2
2004
Q2
2005
Q2
2006
Q2
2007
Q2
2008
Q2
2009
Q2
2010
Q2
2011
Q2
2012
Q2
2013
Q2
2014
Q2
2015
Q2
2016
Q2
2017
Q2
2018
Q2
2019
Q2
2020
Q2
U.S
. Tra
nsac
tions
($B)
Single Asset Portfolio Entity Level
U.S. Sales Volume Transactions, by Entity Type ($B)
PRICING BEGINNING TO SOFTEN
Source: Real Capital Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield Research
WHILE PROPERTY PRICE INCREASES SLOW DOWN, INDUSTRIAL & MULTIFAMILY MORE RESILIENT
Property Type
Sales Price Change YOY
(2020 Q2)Industrial 7.6%
Apartment 7.1%
Office 2.3%
Retail -0.7%
Hotel -5.4%
All 3.6%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Feb-
15
Jun-
15
Oct
-15
Feb-
16
Jun-
16
Oct
-16
Feb-
17
Jun-
17
Oct
-17
Feb-
18
Jun-
18
Oct
-18
Feb-
19
Jun-
19
Oct
-19
Feb-
20
Jun-
20
Office Industrial Retail Apartment
Property Price Change (Year-over-Year), 12-Month Rolling (%)
DELINQUENCIES CONCENTRATED IN RETAIL & LODGING, SO FAR
Source: Trepp
1.72.7 2.0
4.4
1.81.22.4
3.3
16.1
23.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
Industrial Office Multifamily Retail Lodging
Del
inqu
ency
Rat
e (%
30
Day
s +)
July 2019 July 2020
Delinquency Rate by Property Type (% 30 Days +)
SIGNS OF RECOVERY…
RETAIL SALES REBOUNDINGSTOCK MARKET SURGE MANUFACTURING GROWING AGAIN
LOW INTEREST RATES = REFINANCING BOOM
LAYOFFS DOWN: LABOR MARKETS IMPROVING
SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE UP
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000
32,000Ju
l-19
Aug-
19Se
p-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20Fe
b-20
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0M
ay-2
0Ju
n-20
Jul-2
0Au
g-20
Dow Jones Industrial Average
400,000
425,000
450,000
475,000
500,000
525,000
550,000
Jul-1
9Au
g-19
Sep-
19O
ct-1
9N
ov-1
9D
ec-1
9Ja
n-20
Feb-
20M
ar-2
0Ap
r-20
May
-20
Jun-
20Ju
l-20
Millions of USD ($)
40
45
50
55
Jul-1
9Au
g-19
Sep-
19O
ct-1
9N
ov-1
9D
ec-1
9Ja
n-20
Feb-
20M
ar-2
0Ap
r-20
May
-20
Jun-
20Ju
l-20
ISM Index
95
100
105
110
115
Jul-1
9
Aug-
19Se
p-19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20Fe
b-20
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
NFIB Index
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7/5/
198/
5/19
9/5/
1910
/5/1
911
/5/1
912
/5/1
91/
5/20
2/5/
203/
5/20
4/5/
205/
5/20
6/5/
207/
5/20
8/5/
20
Mortgage Refinancing Applications
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
7/6/
198/
6/19
9/6/
1910
/6/1
911
/6/1
912
/6/1
91/
6/20
2/6/
203/
6/20
4/6/
205/
6/20
6/6/
207/
6/20
8/6/
20
Initial Unemployment ClaimsSource: Various
STILL MANY SCENARIOS & UNKNOWNS
Source: Consensus forecast sourced to FiveThirtyEight/IMG where 22% of economists expect real GDP to return to pre-crisis levels in H2 2021 vs 44% expect H1 or H2 of 2022.
Upside = Moody’s Analytics S0 Update Scenario, Downside = Moody’s S3 Downside Scenario; Forecast as of 7-22-2020
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,00020
19 Q
4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021
Q1
2021
Q2
2021
Q3
2021
Q4
2022
Q1
2022
Q2
2022
Q3
2022
Q4
2023
Q1
2023
Q2
U.S
. GD
P ($
B)
Consensus Forecast: Return to 2019 GDP in
mid-2022
Moody’s Baseline
Oxford’s Baseline DownsideUpside
U.S. Real GDP Forecast Scenarios ($B)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody’s Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield Research
JOB GAINS/LOSSES, MILLIONS (U.S.) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (U.S.)
-9.6
0.1
4.7
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
3.5%
13.0%
9.5%
8.1%
5.7%
4.5% 4.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2019
Q4
2020
Q4
2021
Q4
2022
Q4
2023
Q4
2024
Q4
LABOR MARKETS’ PATH TO RECOVERY: BASELINE SCENARIOJob Growth & Unemployment Rate Forecasts
COVID-19 is accelerating trends that were already in the making.
Source: Ecommerce figures from Digital Commerce 360 analyzing the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Retail E-Commerce Sales Report and Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Report.
Note: Total retail sales number excludes the sale of items not normally purchased online; specifically, motor vehicle & parts dealers (NAICS 441), gasoline stations (NAICS 447), and food services & drinking places (NAICS 722).
Industrial figures from Cushman & Wakefield Research
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN ONLINE SHOPPING GENERATES DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL-LOGISTICS
5.6%7.2%
8.3%
10.7%
13.2%
16.0%
21.8%23.8%
24.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Online sales as % of Total Retail Sales*
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019
H1
2020
H1
Traditional Net Absorption eCommerce Net Absorption
ECOMMERCE SURGE CONTINUES THE INDUSTRIAL BOOMOnline Sales as % of Total Retail Sales* & Industrial Absorption
INDUSTRIAL ABSORPTION STRONG IN MANY MARKETSSelect U.S. Markets, 2020 H1
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
0
4
8
12
16
Dal
las/
Ft.
Wor
th
PA I-
81/I-
78C
orrid
or
Atla
nta
Hou
ston
Inla
ndEm
pire
CA
Chi
cago
Phoe
nix
Indi
anap
olis
Balti
mor
e
Sava
nnah
Mem
phis
Phila
delp
hia
Kans
as C
ity
Las
Vega
s
Nas
hville
NJ
- Cen
tral
Den
ver
MSF
INDUSTRIAL VACANCY REMAINS LOWU.S. Industrial Vacancy (%)
Q2 20205.3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
U.S. Sales Volume ($B)
Source: Real Capital Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield Research
453.7
60.4
482.4
98.2
All Other Property Types Industrial-logistics
135.0
44.5
2016 2018 2020 H1
ACCELERATES CAPITAL FLOWING INTO INDUSTRIAL-LOGISTICS
Source: Structure Research; Cushman & Wakefield Research
REGIONAL CLOUD SERVICES SPEND ($B) DATA CENTER Q2 HIGHLIGHTS
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Americas EMEA Asia
• Distributed workforce: Cloud services absorbed near-record capacity (200 MW) in Q2 as corporations rapidly shifted IT infrastructure to keep up with a suddenly distributed workforce.
• Record throughput: The largest internet exchanges across the world saw new record throughput, noting 50% increases in teleconferencing and 25% increases in online gaming and social media usage.
• Further expansion: Data center REITs remain focused on expansion to serve both large cloud services companies and corporations looking for further disaster recovery options and/or scalability.
COVID-19 ACCELERATES DATA USAGE & DATA CENTER DEMAND
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Cushman & Wakefield Research
-28%
-24%
-22%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-6%
-6%
8%
20%
21%
-1%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Restaurants
Clothing
Gasoline
Electronics
Grocery
Health
Furniture
General Merch
Building Materials
Nonstore
Sporting Goods
Total
June 2020, Change Since Pre-Virus Peak by Retail Sector
STRONGER HEADWINDS FOR CERTAIN RETAIL CONCEPTS
CHANGE IN SALES BY RETAIL SECTOR(PRE-VIRUS PEAK TO JUNE 2020)
MAPS TO ECOMMERCE PENETRATION
Source: ShawSpring Partners; Bank of America
eCommerce Penetration
Before After (Forecast)
Apparel & Accessories 29% 40%
Auto & Parts 5% 10%
Books, Music & Video 55% 68%
Consumer Electronics 42% 55%
Food & Beverage 3% 15%
Furniture & Furnishings 24% 42%
Health & Beauty 11% 25%
Office Supplies 27% 60%
Other 24% 40%
Toys & Hobby 37% 50%
RETAIL DEMAND NEGATIVE IN 2020 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2009U.S. Retail Absorption by Quarter
Source: Costar Group; Cushman & Wakefield Research
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008
Q2
2009
Q2
2010
Q2
2011
Q2
2012
Q2
2013
Q2
2014
Q2
2015
Q2
2016
Q2
2017
Q2
2018
Q2
2019
Q2
2020
Q2
MSF
MALLS WILL BE HIT HARD…
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
A++ A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D
U.S. Mall Distribution by Class
Class A: 310 U.S. MallsNearly all will need to redevelop
dead anchor space.
Class C & D: 334 U.S. MallsMost of these will become
redevelopment opportunities.
Class B: 426 U.S. MallsWill need to redevelop dead anchor space. Most will need
some level of redevelopment. Weakest properties will be on the same trajectory as Class C & D were before the crisis.
U.S. Mall Distribution by Class
Source: William H Frey analysis of Census Bureau Population estimates July 2010-2019 (released May 21, 2020); Brookings Institute
POPULATION GROWTH STRONGER SINCE ‘16 CBD RENT PREMIUM DOWN FROM PEAK
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Primary City Growth Suburb Growth
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ACCELERATES REBIRTH OF THE SUBURBS THAT WAS ALREADY UNDERWAYTurn Towards Suburbs Began Three Years Before Pandemic & Recession
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Office faces both cyclical & structural headwinds, but it will fully recover.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
CYCLICAL – JOB LOSSES STRUCTURAL – WORKING REMOTELY
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
2000
Q2
2001
Q3
2002
Q4
2004
Q1
2005
Q2
2006
Q3
2007
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2011
Q3
2012
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2016
Q3
2017
Q4
2019
Q1
2020
Q2
Office-using employment, millions
Great Financial Crisis: 2.4 million office jobs lost
COVID Recession: 2.6 million office jobs lost
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar 13 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Apr 6 Apr 13 Apr 20
% of US Workers Who Have Worked Remotely
JOB LOSSES (CYCLICAL) & EMPLOYEE LOCATION CHOICE (STRUCTURAL) WILL IMPACT WORKPLACE ECOSYSTEMS
Source: Gallup Panel 2020
OFFICE ABSORPTION TURNS NEGATIVEU.S. Office Net Absorption by Quarter
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
-23-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
MSF
Q2 2020 Net AbsorptionCBD: -8.1 MSF
Suburbs: -15.0 MSF
OFFICE VACANCY TRENDS HIGHER; ENDED Q2 AT HIGHEST POINT SINCE 2015U.S. Office Vacancy (%)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
17.6%17.3%
12.8%
13.7%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
U.S. VACANCY SCENARIOS
18.2%
15.4%Pre-COVID
13.0%
21.8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
2019
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021
Q1
2021
Q2
2021
Q3
2021
Q4
2022
Q1
2022
Q2
2022
Q3
2022
Q4
Baseline Upside Downside
• GDP recovery follows the baseline scenario- returns to pre-crises levels in 2022.
• U.S. office employment declines by 1.2 million office-using jobs in 2020.
• Congress passes another fiscal relief bill.
• Coronavirus situation begins to resolve by mid-2021.
• Historical relationship between job losses and net absorption holds true in this cycle.
• Percent of people working permanently from home increases from 5% to 10%.
• Share of agile workers increases from 40% pre-COVID-19 to 56%; assume 90% of agile workers have workstations.
• Halt in decade long trend of densification (sf per worker remains fixed at 2019 levels).
Key
Eco
nom
ic
Assu
mpt
ions
Key
Offi
ceAs
sum
ptio
ns
Baseline Assumptions:
U.S. OFFICE VACANCY SCENARIOS
Source: Upside = Moody’s S0 scenarios, Baseline = Moody’s baseline scenario where GDP doesn’t fully recovery until 2022Q2, Downside = Moody’s S3 Scenario
Forecast as of 7-22-2020
Source: Upside = Moody’s S0 scenarios, Baseline = Moody’s baseline scenario where GDP doesn’t fully recovery until 2022Q2, Downside = Moody’s S3 Scenario
Forecast as of 7-22-2020
U.S. OFFICE PROPERTY PRICE INDEX
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021
Q1
2021
Q2
2021
Q3
2021
Q4
2022
Q1
2022
Q2
2022
Q3
2022
Q4
2023
Q1
2023
Q2
2023
Q3
2023
Q4
2024
Q1
2024
Q2
Baseline Upside Downside
Upside:Full Recovery
2021 Q4
Baseline:Full Recovery
2022 Q4
Downside:Full Recovery 2023 Q4
Factors That Point to Full Recovery:
• Economic growth (e.g. GDP, population growth over the long-term).
• Share of office employment increasing as a share of nonfarm employment.
• Surveys indicate office employees want options and want to be in an office on a regular basis. The future is total workplace ecosystems that offer more employee choice.
• 90% want to return to the office.
• 78% want remote working policies expanded and a shift to balancing office, home and third places.
• Office retains value for its role in:
• Agglomeration / knowledge spillover
• Worker productivity
• Cultural / branding factors
• Mentoring, training and onboarding
PROPERTY PRICE SCENARIOS
OFFICE ALSO HAS STRONG STRUCTURAL TAILWIND AT ITS BACKOffice-using Industries Expected to Account for Disproportionate Share of Future U.S. Job Gains
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics Forecasted
197015.2%
200021.2%
202021.9%
202522.9%
203524.4%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Office-using Employment as % of Total Nonfarm Payroll
The COVID-19 recession will hit the multifamily sector as well, but long-term fundamentals remain favorable.
NET ABSORPTION SLOWS & APARTMENT VACANCY TRENDS HIGHERU.S. Apartment Absorption by Quarter (Units) & Vacancy
Source: CoStar Group
5.6%
5.8%
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%
6.6%
6.8%
7.0%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,00020
15
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Net Absorption Vacancy Rate
Source: U. S. Census Bureau; Moody's Analytics Forecasted
NEARLY 45.5 MILLION PRIME RENTERS BETWEEN THE AGES OF 20 AND 29 IN THE U.S.
DEMOGRAPHICS STILL FAVORABLE FOR APARTMENT DEMAND
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Milli
ons
of P
erso
ns (U
.S.)
Age
5-Year Age Cohort
#(Millions)
20-24 21.925-29 23.630-34 22.1
35-39 21.6
40-44 19.7
U.S. Population by Age (Millions)
AFTER SLOWDOWN, DEMAND EXPECTED TO TURN ROBUST BY 2022
Source: CoStar Group
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,00020
16
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Net Absorption Effective Rent Growth (rhs)
U.S. Apartment Absorption by Year (Units) & Effective Rent Growth (Year-Over-Year)
Closing Thoughts to Keep in Mind…
Uncertainty limiting current activity…
• Current recession is unique in that it is being driven by a health pandemic. Mobility, confidence and activity are dependent upon virus spread being brought under control.
• Office workforces are largely still distributed, making it difficult for occupiers to gauge future office needs across their portfolios.
…But, reasons for cautious optimism.
• Job creation started quickly, after a devastating two-month drop in employment.• The recession is likely already over. The recovery, though fragile and uneven, has begun.• Rent collections have remained strong for office, industrial and multifamily (each of which are averaging
90%+).
Some pre-recession trends are being accelerated.
• eCommerce and online retail sales substituting for the lower levels of in-person shopping, eating, etc.• Need for more data centers and cloud services capacity.• Suburban submarkets increasingly attractive for some residents, workers and employers.• Secular headwinds for retail were accelerated by this crisis.
What else is to come?
• Occupiers examining portfolio strategies now, and some likely to make shifts in workplace ecosystems in the future. The office will remain a critical driver of culture, learning and personal connections.
• Vast majority of office workers now want their employer to expand remote working policies and shift to balancing office, home and third places.
• During the current pandemic-forced work-from-home experience, only 55% of workers “have a sense of well-being” and half struggle to connect with their company’s culture.
• Opportunities exist as office rents have declined in one-fifth of U.S. markets, national vacancy is up 49 basis points quarter-over-quarter and sublease space has increased by 21% since the beginning of the year.
• Industrial demand remains strong, and many U.S. markets continue to have historically low vacancy rates.• Downside risk does still exist with disruptions to import / export volumes and potential bankruptcies of
warehouse retailers.
KEY CONTACTS:
Garrick BrownRetail Insights, NewCommerce [email protected]
Jason TolliverGlobal Head of NewCommerce [email protected]
David BitnerGlobal Head of Capital Markets [email protected]
Kristina Garcia Multifamily Insights, Capital Markets [email protected]
Kevin ThorpeChief Economist, Global Head of [email protected]
Rebecca Rockey Economist, Global Head of Economic Analysis & Forecasting [email protected]
David C. SmithGlobal Head of Occupier [email protected]
Ken McCarthyEconomist, Global [email protected]
Carolyn SalzerIndustrial Insights, NewCommerce [email protected]
SEPTEMBER 2020
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About Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 53,000 employees in 400 offices and 60 countries. In 2019, the firm had revenue of $8.8 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter.
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