Unit II: Fundamentals of
Population
What is Population Geography?
• Demography: The statistics relating to population geography
• Population Geography: How people live, how they interact with one another, how they use the land, what pressure on resources exist, and what the future may bring; answers questions of where? And why there?
Satellite Monitoring of Artificial LightMake note of the “Developed World”
Key Issues in Population Geography
What are the Issues?
1. Population growth (esp. in developing world)
2. Food supply
3. Health
4. Status of women
5. Migration
Elements of Population Geography
Population and space
1. Humanity has always been unevenly distributed over the land
2. Contrasts between crowded cities and empty reaches have intensified during the 20th c.
3. In technologically advanced countries, people tend to cluster in cities and towns
Population Distribution & Density
1. Distribution of population describes the locations on Earth's surface where individuals or groups live
2. Dot maps efficiently show distribution of populations
World Population Distribution Dot Map
Arithmetic Density
• Arithmetic Density –divide the area of a country by the total population; a numerical average
a)Not accurate because it does not include clustering within a country
b)Does not represent empty areas
Arithmetic Density
Physiological Density
• Physiologic density - number of people per unit of agriculturally productive land
a)More useful than arithmetic density
b)Gives the real situation in terms of cultivable land and the growing pressure on it
c) Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
Physiological Density
• Reflects the “burden of dependency” - the proportion of persons under 15 and over 65 who are economically dependent on working members aged 15 to 64
Physiological Density
Physiologic Population Density
Luxor, Egypt
Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley.
Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted.
Global and National Patterns
1. Contains more than a 1/4 of the world's population
2. China alone has a pop. of nearly 1.6 billion
3. Most people live along coastlines, river basins and lowlands
4. Dominant activity is farming
East Asia
Japan
a) Very limited farmlands
b) High population density
c) Prosperous and well-fed people because of:
(1) High technological prowess
(2) Industrial capacity
(3) Money-producing exports
South Asia
1. Ganges River in India has one of the great concentrations of people on Earth
2. Bangladesha) More than 120 million people in area size of
Iowa
b) Nearly all people are farmers
3. Indiaa) Growing faster than china (1.5 Billion people)
Europe
1. Contains about 700 million people
2. Population distribution as compared to Asia
a) Large populations found in countries near coal fields
b) Dense populations in mountainous, rugged countries
c) More people live in cities
d) Rural countryside more open and not as populated
North America
1. Not as densely populated as Europe and Asia, more spread out
2. Rural areas less populated
3. Like Europe, population concentrated in major cities
Other regions
1. South America and Australia seem to have space remaining for pop. Growth and distribution
2. Pockets of Africa are very dense while other parts are sparsely populated due to physical barriers
a) Nile Valley and Delta has more than 66 million inhabitants
b) Areas around deserts not as populated
Some Generalizations
• 90% of the world’s population is above the equator, 66% in the mid-latitudes (includes US and Europe)
• 50% of the population lives on 5% of the available land.
• 66% of the world’s populations live within 300 miles of the ocean.
Population
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A.D.2000
A.D.1000
A.D.1
1000B.C.
2000B.C.
3000B.C.
4000B.C.
5000B.C.
6000B.C.
7000B.C.
1+ million years
8
7
6
5
2
1
4
3
OldStoneAge New Stone Age
BronzeAge
IronAge
MiddleAges
ModernAge
Black Death —The Plague
9
10
11
12
A.D.3000
A.D.4000
A.D.5000
18001900
1950
1975
2000
2100
Future
Billions
World Pop. was steady until the agricultural/scientific revolutions – then it exploded
World Population Growth Through History
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Population Growth--the Problem
• Food Supply • Status of Women • Health Issues--not enough
nutrients in food, lack of medical help
• Environmental Issues--deforestation, erosion, technology/chemicals
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Global Population Growth Is Driven by Developing Countries.
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
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Sparks to Population Growth
• Agricultural Revolution • Industrial Revolution • Urbanization and Sanitation • Advances in Medicine • Conquest and Colonization of New
Lands • Developing Countries
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Checks on Population Growth
• Epidemics and Plagues --Bubonic Plague- 1348-1350, 1/4 of the population killed, England loses 4 million people
• Famines –Potato Famine in Ireland–India and China
• Wars • Natural Decrease
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Demographic Equations
Growth Rate (%) = Birth Rate – Death Rate +/– Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase (%)
Population Doubling Time (yrs.) =
70 Rate of Natural Increase
PalestinianTerritories
Fertility Rate
1975-1980 7.39
1980-1985 7.00
1985-1990 6.43
1990-1995 6.46
1995-2000 5.99
2000-2005 5.57
2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age.
Africa Fertility Rate
1975-1980 6.60
1980-1985 6.45
1985-1990 6.11
1990-1995 5.67
1995-2000 5.26
2000-2005 4.97
U.K.Total
fertility rate
1975-1980 1.72
1980-1985 1.80
1985-1990 1.81
1990-1995 1.78
1995-2000 1.70
2000-2005 1.66
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2.
Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.
1.17
1.12
0.94
0.84
1.22
1.24
1.24
1.23
1.23
1.20
Belarus
Bulgaria
Republic of Moldova
Republic of Korea
Slovenia
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Ukraine
China, Hong Kong Special AdministrativeRegion
China, Macao Special Administrative Region
G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide
Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China
H. Diverging Trends in Fertility ReductionAverage number of children per woman
5.75.25.4
6.46.4
8.5
5.3
3.3
6.2
3.1
2.4 2.1
4.3
2.5
Egypt India Indonesia Iran Pakistan Turkey Yemen
1970-1975 2000-2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Many developing countries have cut population growth
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
49
6772
76
6565
7780 82
75
Africa Asia Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
More DevelopedRegions
World
2000-2005 2045-2050
I. Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region
L.E increase vary with region – greatest gains in the developing nations
Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2; Australia = 7/mi2
Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.
World and Country Population Totals
Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface!
Total: 7 billion on planet as of Oct. 20, 2011
Five most populous regions and countries
REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION
• East Asia 1.9 billion China 1.548 billion• South Asia 1.7 billion India 1.349 billion• Europe 825 million U.S. 330 million• SE Asia 600million Indonesia 310 million• Brazil 246million
Greatest increases are slated for Africa and the Arab world, while Europe and China remain stagnant
D. Projected Population Change, by CountryPercent Population Change, 2005-2050
1.17
1.12
0.94
0.84
1.22
1.24
1.24
1.23
1.23
1.20
Belarus
Bulgaria
Republic of Moldova
Republic of Korea
Slovenia
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Ukraine
China, Hong Kong Special AdministrativeRegion
China, Macao Special Administrative Region
G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide
Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China
Birth Control Programs
• One family/one child policies– Female infanticide– Social compensation fees
• Sterilization• Loss of status• Termination healthcare/food coupons• Free birth control• Increased literacy
Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions
300 100 100 300
300 200 100 0 100 200 300
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Male Female Male Female
80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-90-4
Age
Pyramids for the LDCs and HDCs are vastly different
K. Age Distribution of the World’s Population
World Death Rates
• Infectious diseases– HIV/AIDS– SARS
• Degenerative diseases– Obesity– Tobacco use
• Epidemiology• Epidemiological transition
Adults and Children Living with AIDS, 2004
Rates of Natural Increase
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Rate of Increase
(%)
Doubling Time (yrs.)
Example (1998)
0.50 140 Ireland
0.60 120 United States
1.00 70 China
2.00 35 Costa Rica
3.50 20 Yemen
Higher rate of increase = shorter doubling time (inverse relationship)
Doubling Time = 70 / Rate of Increase
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2000 yrs. ago – 250 million: doubling time 16 centuries (1650)1650 – 500 million: doubling time 170 yrs. (1820) …2000 – doubling time reduced to 35 yrs. (>6 billion currently)
Doubling TimesThe doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today.
World = 50U.S. = 34MDC = 543LDC = 40Honduras = 22Belize = 19Denmark = 700Russia = never?
Demographic Transition Model
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The Demographic Transition Model
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61
1. Stage One Growth
• Pre-Industrial economy – Crude death rate and birth rate fluctuate freely due mainly to famine, but also war and disease
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2. Stage Two Growth
• Early Industrial Economy - Industrialization leads death rates down w/better food access due to agricultural advances, while birth rate level off at a stable rate
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3. Stage Three Growth• Developed Industrial
Economy - Birth rates plummet along with death rates as overall population climbs.
• Most people survive to old age so no need to replace with babies
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4. Stage Four Growth
• Developed Economies - The post-industrial economy sees birth and death rates converging as population growth levels off and stabilizes.
• Nations reach replacement fertility – 2.1 children per couple
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Demographic Transition Theory
4 Stages:
1. High Birth Rate, High Death Rate
2. High Birth Rate, Declining Death Rate
3. Declining Birth Rate, Low Death Rate
4. Low Birth Rate, Low Death Rate
Demographic Transition Model• Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural)
– Crude birth/death rate high– Fragile, but stable, population
• Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine)– Lower death rates– Infant mortality rate falls– Natural increase very high
• Stage three (attitudes change)– Indicative of richer developed countries– Higher standards of living/education– Crude birth rate finally falls
• Stage four – Crude birth/death rates low– Population stable– Populations aging
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
• based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
• many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3
Population Shift
Overpopulation• When consumption of
natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.
(1743 – 1794)
• predicted that innovation, resulting increased wealth, and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
• believed that society was perfectable
Jean Antoine Condorcet
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Thomas Malthus
• Food Production increases linearly while population increases geometrically— i.e. the world will not have enough food to support itself
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Malthus cont…
• But wait! Technology Intervenes
• Is Malthus wrong for the future?
– A problem we will never escape--population will outdo technology
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person.
Assumptions• Populations grow
exponentially.• Food supply grows
arithmetically.• Food shortages and chaos
inevitable.
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Food Population2 24 48 16
16 256
Population J-Curve
Population and the Environment
I = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problems:
• Global Warming
• Habitat Loss / Endangered Species
• Resource Depletion
• Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.
Popula
tion a
nd R
eso
urc
e
Consu
mpti
on
Population Policy:Making National Decisions
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The Population Bomb!
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What is Population a policy?
• The decisions made by a national gov. to alter growth rates through legal and social means
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Tools for Population goals
• Education & Propaganda
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China’s Propaganda Posters
Do a good job in family planning to promote economic development
Carry out family planning Implement the basic national policy
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Financial incentives• Parents can be
rewarded or punished through taxes, tuition or housing as in China’s One Child Policy
• Many countries are trying this some to boost their populations, others to decrease it.
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Women’s Approach
• By empowering LDC women to financial success, cycles of large families can sometimes be broken.
• A common U.N strategy in Africa
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Family Planning
• Through Public Health Services, counseling, contraception and even abortion can be made available.
• These programs have a mixed record based on cultural values
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Foreign Aid
• Financial and technical aid are often made available by the U.N or MDCs.
• Problems arise when money or the programs themselves are discontinued
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Coercion
• Enforced sterilization or abortion are rarely successful and often have the opposite effect.
• India’s enforced sterilization in the 1970s was a disaster