DISCUSSIONS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE , IMPACTS AND

VULNERABILITYBy

Prof (Dr) Richard OdingoUniversity Of Nairobi

Former Vice PresidentIntergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (Ipcc)

Executive Climate Change and Carbon Trade WorkshopAfrica Carbon Exchange

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

Climate change mitigation has been trulymismanaged to such an extent that it will takedecades to unravel

At first it looked so easy and doable, then when theindustrialized countries understood what it trulymeans they have reneged

In durban last year they virtually killed the KyotoProtocol

ORIGINS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE

There are two types of climate change that we thescientists talk about, namely astronomically linkedclimate variability and change, and what today werefer to as

“ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE”

Anthropogenic climate change refers to what wehuman beings have brought upon ourselves

THE DAYS BEFORE GLOBAL WARMING DAWNED UPON US

In 1977 UNEP asked me to write about what a“warmer earth would look like for a Journal Article,and the following is what I said then

“ If warming prevails….we can expect higher sea levels,more cyclones and more rain. But whatever happenswe all need to understand the implications.”

WHY I SAID WHAT I SAID IN 1977

At the time I was writing about warming up wewere more concerned with what became known asthe impacts of climate change which we naturally didnot link up with the real causes. One particularaspect which concerned us very much at the timewas the frequent occurrence of DROUGHT, which wefailed to link with climate change.

THE 1972 SAHELIAN DROUGHT

In 1972 the whole of the Sahel in West Africa came under one of the worst droughts on record, such that there was an outcry within the United Nations in New York for action to save human lives that were being lost. Countries involved included Senegal, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Tchad, Niger, northern Nigeria, and even Sudan, Ethiopia , Somalia, and Kenya.

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAHELIAN DROUGHT

DROUGHT AND DESSICATION

COMPLETE CROP FAILURE FOR LONG PERIODS

LOSS OF LIVESTOCK

LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE

TOGETHER WITH OTHER DISTINGUISHED SCIENTISTS WE CAME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT “nature pleads NOT GUILTY”

IF LOOKING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE WHAT WOULD YOU LOOK FOR?

Signs like Drought

Data to back you up

Are the conditions localized or widespread?

Are the conditions global?

Can you link the observed conditions to something more chronic like global warming ?

OUTCOMES OF THE SAHELIAN DROUGHT

A UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY RESOLUTION

UNEP AND WMO INVITED TO MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS ON SOLUTIONS

STEPS TOWARDS THE CREATION OF THE IPCC

IPCC FINALLY CREATED IN 1988

UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY A CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATING COMMITTEE

THE UNFCCC IS BORN, AWAITING RIO 1992

THE SCIENCE AND POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

• FOOT NOTE

Prior to the formation of the IPCC and the UNFCCC the United nations system had recorded a great success in dealing with the Global Ozone Layer Problem with relative ease, through the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol. It was therefore very tempting to copy the approach. But the problems were different.

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE

An Introduction

WHAT WE KNOW FROM PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS

TASKS FACING THE IPCC BETWEEN 1988 AND 2007

Once the global agenda on climate change had been set, IPCC went to work, and over the years we gathered a team of up to 2000 scientists to work on various aspects of the climate change problem. The outcome was four major scientific assessments: AR1, AR2, AR3, and AR4

When AR4 was concluded the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the IPCC and Al Gore

QUESTIONS RAISED BEFORE IPCC GOT TO WORK

What is the most likely projection of the future increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to man’s burning of fossil fuels and to changing land use?

Is man significantly changing the Nitrogen Cycle by increasing use of artificial fertilizers, and by high temperature combustion?

What are the likely changes of the extent, and characteristics of natural biomass-due to climate change?

QUESTIONS-CONTINUED

Does man influence the global climate by modifying some basic features of the biosphere?

What are the likely climate change impacts on the global biogeochemical Cycles?-The Carbon Cycle, Oxygen Cycle,Nitrogen Cycle, and Sulphur Cycle?

SCIENTIFIC RESULTS OF IPCC’S WORK

Evidence of past and projected future climate change from the following sources:

(a) Scientific Observations of the climate system

(b) Palaeoclimatic sources of information

(c) Historical sources of information

(d) Theoritical (modeling) sources of information

SCIENTIFIC RESULTS CONTINUED

Observations of climate risks to human settlements (cf. Hurricanes Katrina 2005 and Sandy 2012)

Climate on Land –temporal and spatial

Climate of the Oceans-Biogeochemical Cycles

FACTS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

AR4 IPCC WORKING GROUP-1 stated as follows:”Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea levels”

CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING

• Global atmospheric concentration of Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous Oxide

• This has resulted from human activities since 1750

• The global increases observed are primarily due to fossil fuel use, and land use change, while those of Methane and Nitrous Oxide are primarily due to agriculture

THE VALUE OF IPCC ASSESSMENTS

IPCC assessments are now a recognized source of information about climate change, also referred to as global warming;

The UNFCCC relies entirely on IPCC work and findings

The Green House Gases which are monitored include CO2,CH4,N2O, NO++, HFCs, SF6

CO2

• Readings and records come from continuous stations like Mauna Loa (since 1958), Mount Kenya and now many others.

• Flask stations –sampling at predetermined times

• Flask mobile-Ships

• Remote Sensing stations

From these we get deseasonalized long-term trends

METHANE (CH4)

• Methane is the second most important anthropogenic GHG with an estimated global warming potential per molecule 25 times greater over a hundred years horizon, and 75X greater over a 20 year period cf. CO2

N2O

• Nitrous oxide is a relatively stable GHG in the Troposphere but long lasting-114 years

HALOCARBONS AND HALOGENATED SPECIES

• Carbon compounds containing one or more halogens, such as Fluorine, Chlorine, bromine, or Iodine are industrial products which are GHGs

• All the GHGs contribute to global warming, and have radiative forcing properties

GLOBAL IMPORTANCE OF GHGS

Globally CO2 is the strongest driver of climate change, we therefore talk of other GHGs interms of CO2- equivalents. Records of Carbon dioxide over the last 800,000 years (palaeoclimatology) have been traced to give meaning to the talk of global warming

Work by the IPCC has enabled us to better understand what these forces are doing to the global climate system.

IPCC CONCLUSIONS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

• At continental, regional and ocean basin scales numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed, these include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns, extreme weather and droughts, heat waves, Tropical cyclones and heavy precipitation, it is from such records that we derive conclusions about climate change,

MODELING HUMAN AND SOCIAL ECONOMIC REACTIONS OF THE

CLIMATE SYSTEMWhen we use models we can observe the

intricate interactions between climate change and human societies including impacts on the socio-economic systems, using models it is possible to build scenarios of the future, and how climate change will impact economic development in 2030, 2050 2100 and beyond

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

• NB

It is important to look at the anthropogenic changes which are responsible for the impacts to be expected when warming sets on. Impacts will be linked to the vulnerability of human groups as well as to the different ecosystems that are affected. Here we will concentrate on impacts in Africa because this is what we know best.

Increase in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentration

• The global atmospheric CO2 concentration increased from 280 ppm (pre-industrial) to 379 ppm in 2005;

• The 2005 value exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm);

• Annual CO2 concentration growth-rate (avg. 1.9ppm/yr) was larger during the last 10 years (1995 – 2005) than it has been since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements (1960–2005 average: 1.4 ppmper year)

Increase In Methane (CH4) Concentrations• The global atmospheric

concentration of CH4 increased from 715 ppb (pre-industrial value) to 1,732 ppb in the early 1990s, and is 1,774 ppb in 2005

• The 2005 value exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (320 to 790 ppb);

• It is very likely that the observed increase in CH4 concentration is due to anthropogenic activities, predominantly agriculture and fossil fuel use;

• Growth rates have declined since

the early 1990s.

Increase In Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Concentrations

• The global atmospheric concentration of N2O increased from 270ppb (a pre-industrial value) to 319 ppb in 2005.

• The growth rate has been approximately constant since 1980.

• More than a third of all nitrous oxide emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due to agriculture.

THE VULNERABILITY OF AFRICA TO CLIMATE CHANGE

• From 1992 when the UNFCCC was signed, the special vulnerability of the African continent was underlined.

• The implication was that vulnerable regions like Africa would get special help to help them cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.

• Fifteen years down the road, that help has not come.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR AFRICA ?

• What are the potential IMPACTS of the Climate Changes ?

• Is Africa Ready for the Challenges posed by the IMPACTS ?

• How Vulnerable is AFRICA to the threats posed by the CLIMATE CHANGE ?

VULNERABILITY TO IMPACTS

• Among many things vulnerability to impacts of climate change have been attributed to endemic poverty linked to disease in many African countries;

• Poor governance and weak institutions have also been blamed;

• Limited access to capital, including markets, infrastructure, and technology;

THE DANGER OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA

• In terms of impacts, Africa is at the receiving end of climate variability and climate change, with all the consequences of increases in extreme events, such as floods, droughts, cyclones, and high winds, which have the capacity to damage national and sub-regional economies within the continent .

VULNERABILITY CONTINUED

• Ecosystem degradation, hence lack of future sustainability of development;

• Many African countries are prone to climate related disasters and regional conflicts;

• Finally, the development prospects for Africa are clouded by the virtual lack of appropriate response because of weak institutional capacity.

GLOBAL PROJECTIONS OF WARMING UP TO 2100

AR4 made a series of scenarios of the future showing the amount of warming to be expected depending on the rates if global population increase and the growth of the global economy, and the generation of GHGs according to the various assumptions, as well as their impacts on the degree of warming. The projected warming is shown in the next slide.

• Projected warming in the 21st century is

expected to be greatest over land and at most

high northern latitudes, and least over the

Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic

ocean

PROJECTIONS OF GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION

It is not easy to make a good projection of what will happen to precipitation during the rest of this century. Certain areas will expect increased rainfall while others will become drier as shown in the precipitation map.

• Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely

in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most

subtropical land regions.

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES

IN CLIMATE

VULNERABILITY CONTINUED

• Ecosystem degradation, hence lack of future sustainability of development;

• Many African countries are prone to climate related disasters and regional conflicts;

• Finally, the development prospects for Africa are clouded by the virtual lack of appropriate response because of weak institutional capacity.

VULNERABILITY CONTINUED

• Ecosystem degradation, hence lack of future sustainability of development;

• Many African countries are prone to climate related disasters and regional conflicts;

• Finally, the development prospects for Africa are clouded by the virtual lack of appropriate response because of weak institutional capacity.

AFRICA’S PROBLEMS WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

• Climate change is bound to interrupt economic development in many African countries

• The nature and spread of climate change impacts will vary from one region to the next.

• Already the impacts of climate change are being felt in many African countries as witnessed by frequent droughts and floods.

African problems continued

• One third of the people in Africa live in drought-prone areas, and are vulnerable to drought impacts.

• Floods like droughts also disrupt African economies, both in the arid and semi-arid parts of the continent.

• Flood conditions are associated with dramatic changes in run-off, which have been projected for other world regions by IPCC AR4.

HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

• According to IPCC AR4, the economic burden of malaria among many other climate linked diseases in Africa is estimated at an average annual reduction in economic growth of 1.3 % or some US $12 billion loss annually.

• Global warming is liked to the resurgence of malaria, and to the rise of “highland malaria” in areas previously malaria free because of altitude.

IMPACTS ON COASTAL SYSTEMS

• Climate change is expected to affect coastal areas and coastal installations adversely

• Climate change risks will come from sea level rise, and the existing human impacts on coastal areas, for port installations and tourism development.

• Coral bleaching and its implications is likely to be much in evidence

CONTINUED

MITIGATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTIES ARE FAR FROM BEING TRANSPARENT

NEEDLESS TO SAY THE PROMISE OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS FOR AFOLU REDD AND REDD++ ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REALISED IN THE CURRENT WORLD ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

FINALY SOME KEY PLAYERS IN THE CLIMATE ISSUE IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD ARE STILL HESITATING

THANKS FOR LISTENING