Download - Africa Energy Outlook
© OECD/IEA 2014
The sub-Saharan context
GDP is rising, but almost half of a fast-growing population lives in extreme poverty: energy is vital to the prospects for development
Region accounts for 13% of global population, but only 4% of its energy demand: half of this is biomass
Poor electricity infrastructure is a key impediment to growth
Large resource base, exploited only in part in the case of oil, gas & coal, largely untouched in renewables
Domestic energy reforms gaining speed, but two-thirds of energy investment since 2000 went to develop resources for export
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Rich in resources
In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa;
Hydro
WindOil
Oil
Oil
OilGas
Gas
Oil
Coal
Gas
Fossil fuels
Solar
the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydro & solar
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In sub-Saharan Africa, 620 million people – two-thirds of the population – live without electricity. Only a handful of countries have electrification rates above 50%.
Less than 50%
More than 50%
Share of population withaccess to electricity:
Rich in resources, but poor in supply
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Biomass remains at the centreof the sub-Saharan energy mix
Total primary energy demand in sub-Saharan Africa
Reliance on fuelwood and charcoal remains high, even as incomes grow; 650 million people still cook with biomass in an inefficient & hazardous way in 2040
300 400 500Mtoe
100 200
Nuclear
Gas
Modern renewables
Coal
Oil
Biomass
2012
Additional demand in 2040
Mtoe
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Power to shape the future
Installed power generation capacity by fuel in sub-Saharan Africa
Renewables account for almost half the growth in overall power supply & for two-thirds of the mini-grid and off-grid systems installed in rural areas
Coal45%
Gas, 14%
Oil, 17%
Nuclear, 2%
Hydro22%
Other renewables0%
2012 capacity: 90 GW
2040 capacity: 380 GW
Coal22%
Gas25%
Oil7%
Hydro24%
Solar12%
Nuclear2%
Bioenergy, windgeothermal
8%
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Different paths to power across the continent
The power mix by subregion reflects local resource endowments; well-functioning regional power pools help to unlock new projects, lower costs & improve reliability
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2000 2020 2040
West
TWh
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2000 2020 2040
Central
TWh
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2000 2020 2040
East
TWh
CoalOilGasNuclear
HydroSolar PV
Otherrenewables
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1 000
2000 2020 2040
Southern
TWh
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Minor cause, but major effect
Cumulative CO2 emissions, 1890-2012
Sub-Saharan Africa is on the front line to feel the effects of a changing climate but, even with an extra 25 Gt to 2040, accounts for only a marginal share of emissions
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UnitedStates
EuropeanUnion
China India MiddleEast
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Gt CO2
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A changing balance to oil production
Oil production in sub-Saharan Africa
The region remains a major global supplier, although regulatory uncertainty, unrest & oil theft in Nigeria make Angola the main producer of crude oil until the 2020s
Other
Angola
Nigeria
Production:
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2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
mb/d
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A new global gas player
Increase in gas production in selected countries and regions, 2012-2040
LNG export is the anchor for the east coast gas discoveries , but half of the overall increase in gas output goes to domestic power generation & industry
50 100 150 200 250
North Africa
Australia
Russia
Sub-Saharan Africa
United States
bcm
Mozambique Nigeria Other
Angola
Tanzania
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Sub-Saharan fossil fuel export revenues
Sub-Saharan Africa turns to Asia
Export destinations for all fossil fuels switch towards Asia-Pacific markets: gas & coal volumes rise, but oil exports tail off as more crude is refined within the region
Revenue from European & Atlantic basin markets
Revenue from Asia-Pacific markets
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90
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2005 2013 2040
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180
2005 2013 2040
Coal
Natural gas
Crude oil
Billi
ondo
llars
(201
3)
Billi
on d
olla
rs(2
013)
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Investment has to come home
Fuels
Electricity
For export
For consumption withinsub-Saharan Africa:
In a reversal of current trends, 2 out of 3 future investment dollars produce energy for sub-Saharan consumers, but this is still not enough to meet their needs in full
Average annual investment in sub-Saharan energy supply
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2000-2013 2014-2035
Billi
on d
olla
rs (2
013)
⅓
⅔ ⅓
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A large step towards universal access, but still a long way to go
Access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
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600
900
1 200
1 500
1 800Million
Population withelectricity access
Population withoutelectricity access
Nearly 1 billion people gain access to electricity, but this still leaves 530 million, primarily in rural communities, without power in 2040
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How could energy make the 21st an African Century?
Energy could do more to act as an engine of inclusive economic and social growth
An African Century Case assesses the impact of faster movement in three key areas:
An upgraded power sector; reducing power outages by half & achieving universal access in urban areas
Deeper regional co-operation; expanding markets & unlocking a greater share of the continent’s hydropower potential
Better management of resources & revenues; more efficiency & transparency in financing essential infrastructure
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Mill
ion
peop
le
Without accessto electricity
Energy can build a shorter path to prosperity
Outcomes in the African Century Case, 2040
By increasing the coverage & reliability of energy supply, the African Century Case unlocks an extra decade’s worth of growth in per-capita incomes by 2040
Main Scenario
African CenturyCase
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Thou
sand
dol
lars
(201
3, M
ER)
GDP per capita
Billi
on d
olla
rs (2
013)
Government revenuesfrom oil & gas production
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Conclusions
Energy is a cornerstone of sub-Saharan strategies for poverty reduction & economic growth
Improvements in sector governance are needed to bring in new energy investors & kick-start development
More efficient & sustainable use of biomass will create a more healthy domestic energy balance
Sub-Saharan Africa remains a mainstay of global oil production & emerges as a major player in natural gas
Concerted action to improve the functioning of the energy sector is essential if the 21st is to become an African century.