© OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017

Energy and Development in Africa: insights from the World Energy Outlook

Laura CozziHead of World Energy Outlook Demand Division

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GDP is rising, but almost half of a fast-growing population lives in extreme poverty: energy is vital to the prospects for development

Region accounts for 13% of global population, but only 4% of its energy demand: half of this is biomass causing severe health impact

Poor electricity infrastructure is a key impediment to economic growth and development

Large resource base, exploited only in part in the case of oil, gas & coal, largely untouched in renewables

Domestic energy reforms gaining speed, but the continent attracts less than 1% of global energy investment

The African energy context

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30 – 80%

< 30%

Electricity access rate, 2014

> 80%

Around 600 million people do not have access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa, but in 2014 the population without access declined for the first time.

The electricity access deficit persists

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2004 2008 2012

mill

ion

Totalpopulation

Withoutaccess

Population with and without access in sub-Saharan Africa

Total population

Without access

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Biomass remains central

Total primary energy demand in Africa

Reliance on fuelwood & charcoal remains high, even as incomes grow; 700 million people still cook with biomass in an inefficient & hazardous way in 2040

300 400 500Mtoe

100 200

Nuclear

Gas

Modern renewables

Coal

Oil

Biomass

2014

Additional demand in 2040

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Power to shape the future

Installed power generation capacity by fuel in Africa

Power supply expands and diversifies: renewables, mainly solar and hydro, and natural gas drive the expansion

2014 capacity: 185 GW 2040 capacity: 563 GW

Coal23%

Oil19%Gas

39%

Nuclear1%

Hydro15%

Solar1%

2%

Other renewables

Coal14%

Oil8%

Gas40%

Nuclear1%

Hydro19%

Solar12%

6%Other renewables

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New technologies can help unlock access

Cost reductions for low-carbon technologies, 2030 Sources of generation for achieving universal access to electricity in Africa, 2040

Technology cost decline, increased digitalization and new business models can unlock greater energy access, with negligible impact on global emissions

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

- 100 200

On-grid

Off- & mini-grid

TWh

Low-carbon

Fossil

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Investment has to come home

Average annual investment in sub-Saharan energy supply

Fuels

Electricity

For export

For consumption withinsub-Saharan Africa:

In a reversal of current trends, 2 out of 3 future investment dollars produce energy for sub-Saharan consumers, but this is still not enough to meet their needs in full

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000-2014 2015-2040

Bill

ion

do

llars

(2

01

3)

⅓

⅔ ⅓

⅔

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Conclusions

Energy is at the heart of strategies for economic growth, job creation and poverty eradication

Improvements in energy sector governance, regional co-operation, and capacity building key to bring in new energy investors

A unique alignment of international political will, technology cost reductions and new business models can accelerate energy access

Sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to leapfrog to a new development path fuelled by renewables and natural gas

IEA to continue to focus on Africa, including WEO special focus on energy and development (October 2017)

© OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017

www.worldenergyoutlook.org@IEA @IEABirol

Energy access database: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energydevelopment/energyaccessdatabase/