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A Regional Comparison of Sonoma County’s COVID-19 Statistics
September 3, 2020
Dr. Sundari MaseSonoma County Health Officer
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Blueprint for a Safer Economy
• On August 28th, Governor Newsom introduced the Blueprint fora Safer Economy, a new four tier structure for reducing COVID- 19with revised criteria for loosening and tightening restrictions on activities.
• This framework replaces the former County Data Monitoring criteria
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Four Tiers
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How does Sonoma County compare to the Region and State?
• Sonoma County is one of 38 counties in the State in Tier 1 (purple): Widespread Transmission
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Measure of Spread
The R-effective refers to the average number of additional people infected by each COVID-19 case (<1 decreasing spread, >1 increasing spread)
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COVID-19 Cases by City
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Regional Comparison: Case Rate
• New cases per 100,000 per day (7 day average; 7 day lag)
7
5.9
6.5
8.6
8.6
9.1
9.8
10.8
10.8
15.6
Marin
Napa
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
San Francisco
Contra Costa
Alameda
Sonoma
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Regional Comparison: Testing Positivity
• Seven day testing positivity (7 day average; 7 day lag)
8
3.0%
3.4%
3.5%
4.2%
4.3%
4.8%
6.2%
6.2%
10.6%
Marin
San Francisco
Santa Clara
Napa
Solano
San Mateo
Contra Costa
Alameda
Sonoma
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Differing Drivers of Infection
• It is important to keep in mind that Sonoma County has a few key differences from our Bay Area neighbors:– Sonoma County is home to tourism, agriculture, industry.
– Essential workers in Sonoma County live and work within our border.
– Marin and Napa have a smaller population base and essential workers who cannot afford to live in these counties can commute from other places.
– Contra Costa, Alameda, Marin and San Francisco do not share similar industries, including agriculture and food production.
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Different Approaches to Testing
In addition to these differences, Sonoma County has adopted aggressive case finding strategies:
• Sonoma County Department of Health Services has an agile, responsive testing team that conducts active case finding at worksites, communities, facilities and vulnerable populations.
• The network of community clinics and other major health care providers make testing available to all persons accessing care, including family members.
• Sonoma County has a fully staffed public health laboratory able to prioritize testing based on shifts in the outbreak.
• Two OptumServe sites are also available for rapid testing.
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Comparison County Considerations
• While geographically close, our neighboring counties have different drivers impacting their case rates.
• To look at a more comparable example, the county of Monterey might be considered. Like Sonoma County, Monterey County has:
– A similar population size and demographics
– Substantial tourism
– Strong agriculture and food production industries
– Essential workers live and work within boundaries
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Comparison of Case Statistics
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County New Cases per 100,000 per Day Testing Positivity
Sonoma 15.6 10.6%
Monterey 15.5 10.9%
Monterey County Cases Sonoma County Cases
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Race/Ethnicity of Cases
Latinx 50%73%
Other/Unknown 21%31%
White, non-Hispanic 4%16%
Asian/Pacific Islander 1%2%
Black/African American
0%
5%1%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
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Monterey Sonoma
Similar to Sonoma County, Monterey County has experienced a disproportionate number of cases in the Latinx community and outbreaks among Agriculture and Farm workers
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Cases by Age Group
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25%23%
20% 19% 19%
17%
15%15% 15%14%
15%
13%12%
11%
10%9%9%
6%
5%
0%
0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Sonoma Monterey
Similar trends seen in cases by age groups, with the 25-34 year old age group accounting for the largest proportion of cases in both counties
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Conclusions
• Sonoma County’s pattern of cases is similar to other counties that share our demographic, industry and tourism profiles
• Focused case finding efforts, extensive field testing in vulnerable populations (e.g. skilled nursing facilities) and worksites, and systematic testing of close contacts have yielded a high number of positive cases
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What Can Sonoma County do to Slow the Spread of COVID-19?
• Continue focused approach to testing, contact tracing and data-driven case finding
• Reinforce importance of wearing facial coverings, social distancing, hygiene, wearing masks when ride sharing, and avoiding gathering
• Encourage workers to stay home when ill and urge employers to provide sick leave when possible
• Outreach to the agriculture industry, skilled nursing and other congregate and vulnerable settings to strengthen prevention and mitigation measures
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