syrian neighboring insurgency
TRANSCRIPT
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Neighboring Insurgency:
How are the Syrian Crisis and International
Responses Driving Lebanon to Fragility Trap?
Leila Nicolas, PhD
www.leilanicolas.com
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Is Lebanon a fragile State?
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Is Lebanon a fragile State?
Actually, Lebanon is a middle income country,which was not really a fragile state before
Syrian crisis ,but had "Situations of fragility.
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Lebanon: Open border policy
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Syrian Spillover Consequences
Violent conflicts, terrorism and organized
crime increased in Lebanon:
Sunni Radicals called for supporters to back
Syrian opposition thus sending arms and
fighters from Lebanon to Syria , while
Hizbullah (Shia) intervened in Syria to back
Asaad regime, this escalated more sectariantensions in Lebanon.
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Stability and Security effects
A- Fighting in Tripoli between the Alawites whosupport Syrian regime and Sunnis supportingSyrian opposition.
B- Several terrorist attacks and suicide bombersblew in Tripoli, Beirut and Bekaa.
Jihadist groups frequently claim responsibility for those.
C- crimes increased dramatically.D- Weapons are being smuggled in both
directions between Lebanon and Syria.
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Demographic stress
UNHCR have registered around 1.1 million
Syrian refugees.
Lebanese officials: more than 1.3 million
Syrian refugees have entered Lebanon by
May-2014 (37% of Lebanons pre-crisis
population)
500,000 Palestinian refugees
50,000 Iraqi refugees
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Economic and Social Stress
5.7 billion $ lost economic activity till Summer 2013
170,000
Lebanese expected to fall into poverty by 2014, in
addition to thecurrent 1 million poor 10%
increase in unemployment rate in Lebanon
340,000 Lebanese
expected to join the ranks of unemployment
$348-$434 million
needed by Lebanon's public education system toaccommodate all the additional Syrian students
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Economic and social Stress
1.1 billion $
The grow of total budgetary spending by the Governmentalone
2.6 billion $
The deficit of public finances has widen 1.5 billion $
Is the estimated to cut in revenue collection
589 million $
the fiscal cost on infrastructure 1.1 billion $
required for stabilization of infrastructure
including 258 million$for current spending
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Political and Institutional Effects
ATensions among Lebanese
B- Increasing tensions between refugees andhost communities
Example: Ersal province, has 40,000 Lebaneseinhabitants, hosts 120, 000 Syrian refugees.
C- Crises of state legitimacy and authority
Postponing parliamentary elections from May 2012 to Nov.2014.
Presidential void started at 25thof May 2014.
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WHY?
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Work, Settle freely, International Aid
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Donors' Policies
Western donors countries as well as Gulfstates have been reluctant to disbursesubstantial funds to the Lebanese
government. As a result, the international aid was managed
around the Lebanese government in directcooperation with non-state actors on theground or the refugees themselves leadingto increased burdens on Lebanese institutions.
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WHY?
More than 40% of the 1.1 million registeredrefugees (UNHCR) came from non- conflict
areas in Syria.
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Direct cash programs
In Lebanon, Cash delivered via ATM card has
become the preferred modality used by
international donors for:
food, non-food needs, winter assistance etc..
the experience in Lebanon prove that "giving
cash directly had some benefits, however it
affected negatively the host communities
and put pressure on Lebanon.
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Disadvantages of Direct Cash
Discriminated between refugees Caused tensions
among them , and the hosting communities.
Caused 100% raise to the prices of food and supplies
A small refugee family gets an average cash of 280 $ permonth, while the average wage in Syria for a non- skilled
person is about 68 $ and a university graduate
employee wage is 115$ (2013- 2014)
officials say: 20% percentage of registered refugees, passthe Lebanese- Syrian border at the end of each month to
collect their vouchers or Cash money..then go back to
Syria.
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Solutions
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Suggested Solutions
First- Keep the current policies and let the
Lebanese State collapse.
Second- Pragmatic Approach:
Doing things differently; e.g. doing things
outside traditional expertise in dealing
with refugees crisis.
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Pragmatic Approach
Step ONE- Classify Refugees:Category 1- who are really in need for humanitarian assistance,
those should be on the top of assistance priority.
Category 2- who came from prior conflict- now safe areas; but
may have no homes or places to live. This category should beencouraged to return, on condition that aid and assistance bedelivered by UN in Syria.
Category 3- Economic refugees should be encouraged to return totheir homelands, the aid assistance in Lebanon should be
stopped.Category 4Syrian workers previously working in Lebanon, and
registered as refugees to benefit from aid. Those should neverbenefit from any aid program, as they are exploiting the funds.
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Syrian refugees voting in Lebanon
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Future- oriented dilemma
It has been accepted that:
When governments are unwilling or unable toprotect their citizens, the internationalcommunity then steps to take this responsibility.
But, what if practicing this internationalresponsibility becomes a cause to deprivinganother state's citizens from their rights?
what if taking this responsibility is leadinganother state to the edge of civil war, or tocollapse?.