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  • 8/12/2019 Doubleline January 2014 Monthly Commentary

    1/13333 S. Grand Ave., 18th Floor ||Los Angeles, CA 90071 ||(213) 633-82

    Monthly Commentary

    January 2014

    333 S. Grand Ave., 18th Floor ||Los Angeles, CA 90071 ||(213) 633-82

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    Overview

    The beginning of the New Year meant the end to Ben

    Bernanke at the helm of the Federal Reserve was

    near. His last policy meeting resulted in a continuedtapering of asset purchases, matching the

    announcement received at the prior meeting for an

    additional cut of $10 billion in monthly bond

    purchases. Ben Bernanke stepped away after guiding

    policy through eight years of turbulence. Taking his

    place was new Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet

    Yellen, who has to navigate the murky waters of

    weaning the worlds largest economy off of the loose

    monetary policies that have become the hallmark of

    the post-crisis landscape. Treacherously cold weather

    has largely obfuscated recent economic reports, and

    large currency swings seen in countries such as

    Argentina, South Africa, and Turkey further

    complicate Chairwoman Yellens task. Whether the

    Federal Reserve decides to include the effects these

    policy changes will have on emerging economies

    remains to be seen. The term Fragile Five has been

    assigned to such countries which have seen large

    reverberations due to the recent tapering of

    purchases. Those countries include Argentina, South

    Africa, Turkey, Brazil, and Indonesia. Weakness in

    domestic equity markets during January can also be

    partially ascribed to the ever impending slowdown in

    China, an unwind of consensus bullish views on U.S.

    Monthly Commentary

    Equities, and in general a re-evaluation of U.S. growt

    prospects.

    Maybe the most surprising event in January was th

    outperformance of fixed income markets relative t

    equities. The 1.5% return for the Barclays U.

    Aggregate Bond Index represents a clea

    outperformance compared with the 3.5% total retur

    loss for the S&P 500 Index during the month. Endin

    the month at 2.64%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury (UST

    rate fell 38 basis points (bps) on the back of fallin

    deficits, falling inflation, and as mentioned

    reversal of what many thought was the consensu

    trade to avoid UST. Real Gross Domestic Produc

    (GDP) growth during the fourth quarter came in a

    3.2%, and while slower than third quarter growth o

    4.1%, second half growth was the strongest half yea

    of growth in a decade. Unemployment continued i

    march lower to 6.6% while the broade

    underemployment rate fell 0.4% to 12.7%. Th

    interplay between these measurements of labo

    market slack, the ability of central bankers t

    continue policies of low rates, and low levels of labo

    market participation continue to be hotly debate

    On one side are those arguing demographic issues ar

    largely the reason for the decline in the size of th

    labor force and that such changes were large

    structural in nature. On the other are thos

    -1,500.00

    -1,300.00

    -1,100.00

    -900.00

    -700.00

    -500.00

    -300.00

    -100.00

    100.00

    Fiscal Year Cumulative Federal Budget Deficit

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    Source: U.S. Treasury,Bloomberg

    55.0%

    57.0%

    59.0%

    61.0%

    63.0%

    65.0%

    67.0%

    1/1/1948

    3/1/1951

    5/1/1954

    7/1/1957

    9/1/1960

    11/1/1963

    1/1/1967

    3/1/1970

    5/1/1973

    7/1/1976

    9/1/1979

    11/1/1982

    1/1/1986

    3/1/1989

    5/1/1992

    7/1/1995

    9/1/1998

    11/1/2001

    1/1/2005

    3/1/2008

    5/1/2011

    U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg

    1/31/1

    63.0%

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    suggesting even after controlling for demographic

    changes in the composition of the labor force, large

    cyclical effects remain, leaving large levels of slack in

    the labor markets.

    Monthly Commentary

    0

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    Feb-1

    3

    Mar-1

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    Apr-1

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    Jun-1

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    Jul-1

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    Aug-1

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    Oct-1

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    Nov-1

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    Dec-1

    3

    Jan-1

    4

    NetPayrollAdditions(000's)

    Nonfarm Private Payrolls - Net Change

    BLS ADPSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, ADP

    Last BLS = 113K

    Last ADP = 175K

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    Emerging Markets Fixed Income

    Volatility not seen since the summer of 2013 returned

    to global markets in January, as mixed economic

    reports from the U.S. combined with weak

    fundamental and technical backdrops in Emerging

    Markets (EM) helped to drag down investor

    sentiment. U.S. equities shed nearly 3.5%, their worst

    performance in over a year, while UST rallied as a

    flight-to-safety bid returned to markets. Benchmark

    10-year UST saw yields tumble from 3.03% to 2.64%.

    Concerns over U.S. growth emerged this month

    following economic releases showing that certain

    sectors of the U.S. economy were posting slower

    growth than expected or shrinking: durable goodsorders unexpectedly contracted by a wide margin in

    December; new home sales declined by a larger rate

    than expected in December; the manufacturing

    sector expanded at a much slower pace than

    consensus expectations for the month of January; and

    while the unemployment rate declined (once again,

    largely due to workers leaving the workforce) to 6.6%

    in January, the 113,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls

    for the month was well-below consensus estimates o

    185,000. Despite these weaker data points, the U.

    did post fourth quarter 2013 growth of 3.2%, whic

    was in-line with expectations. It remains to be see

    how much of the slowdown in U.S. economic dat

    may be temporarily tied to the unusually bad winte

    weather over the past several months, and how muc

    may be due to a fundamental slowing of th

    economy.

    In its last meeting under Chairman Ben Bernanke, th

    U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMCmaintained its pace to continue drawing down i

    quantitative easing (QE) program by $10 billion pe

    month. The FOMC press release dated January 29

    2014 noted that through December, "labor marke

    indicators were mixed but on balance showed furthe

    improvement," and appeared to lack any seriou

    concerns over January economic reports.

    Some of the main EM headlines gripping investors

    the month of January were tied to the currency an

    local bond spaces, which experienced widesprea

    selloffs. Argentina, struggling with inflation nearin

    30%, has dwindled international reserves to defen

    their currency against mounting depreciatio

    pressures. When the Central Bank of Argentin

    announced it planned to ease currency controls o

    dollar purchases, the official foreign exchange (FX

    rate devalued 13% from 6.9 to 8.0 Pesos per U.Dollar (USD). The outlook remains uncertain fo

    Argentina, given the perceived lack of political will t

    implement the widespread economic reforms neede

    to halt the economic decline. Additional EM

    currencies that sold off sharply in January include th

    South African Rand, which fell 5.7%, as well as th

    Turkish Lira, which declined 4.8%. South Africa ha

    Monthly Commentary

    Tickers January

    Return

    Last 3

    Months

    YTM Spread S&P

    Ratings

    EMBI JPGCCOMP -0.68% -1.88% 6.06% 360 BBB-

    CEMBI JBCDCOMP 0.40% 0.13% 5.73% 347 BBB

    GBI-EM JGENBDUU -3.63% -6.58% 7.04% N/A A-

    Source: JP Morgan

    (Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

    -8.0%

    -6.0%

    -4.0%

    -2.0%

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

    JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index

    Performance (1/31/2013 through 1/31/2014)

    EMBI

    CEMBI

    GBI-EM

    Source: Barclays Live

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    struggled with twin deficits following widespread

    strikes in its crucial mining sector, and its currency

    has declined nearly 19.5% versus the USD over the

    past 12 months. Turkey has seen a widespreadcorruption probe roil the embattled administration of

    Prime Minister Recep Erdogan, as well as slowing

    Foreign Direct Investment and a widening current

    account deficit.

    Two additional countries that have seen struggles

    over the past year exacerbated in the last month are

    Venezuela and Ukraine. Both, but perhaps most

    notably Venezuela, have seen mismanaged top-down

    policies making international investors wary of their

    foreign-exchange and local bond markets. Despite

    being oil-rich, Venezuela has been plagued by

    shortages of basic goods such as rice and coffee amid

    widespread capital controls and price setting by

    President Nicolas Maduros Administration.

    Consumer prices are rapidly increasing at one of the

    fastest rates in the world, with annualized inflation of

    56%. Ukraine has been shaken by major protests for

    the past three months against President Viktor

    Yanukovichs turn away from the West/European

    Union toward closer ties with Russia, which has

    responded with a gas subsidy agreement and a $15

    billion debt package. Yanukovich faces pressure from

    both the Kremlin and the gathering momentum of

    opposition protestors, who forced him to reorganize

    his cabinet. The political and economic uncertainty

    has led to a sharply falling currency and decliningdollar reserves amid capital flight.

    Despite these headwinds, developed markets abroad,

    as well as China, were able to post economic figures

    largely in-line with expectations in January. The

    manufacturing sector across the eurozone expanded

    at a slightly faster pace for January, edging above

    consensus estimates. The unemployment rate was

    reported as ticking lower in December, thought it

    remains stubbornly high at 12%. China posted fourt

    quarter 2013 annualized growth slightly abov

    consensus at 7.7%. In January, the official report fo

    the manufacturing sector showed expansion, albeit aa slower pace that was in-line with expectations.

    contrast, HSBCs manufacturing Purchasing Manager

    Index (PMI) showed a slight contraction in the secto

    that was slightly below consensus. Late January als

    witnessed the Chinese authorities stepping in t

    bailout a troubled $500 million high-yield shado

    banking trust product, illustrating the government

    willingness to backstop the economy, though it ha

    been vocal about weeding out excessive lending ancredit.

    EMFI mutual funds saw continued outflows in Janua

    amid the increasing headline noise: $4.8 billion le

    the asset class, with $1.5 billion exiting hard currenc

    funds and $3 billion from local currency funds. Whe

    dissected from a sovereign/corporate bon

    perspective, outflows were $3.8 billion fro

    sovereign-benchmarked funds and essential

    unchanged for corporate-benchmarked funds. W

    still feel that the new issue pipeline remains relative

    full, with pricing coming at more attractive leve

    given the recent noise in the asset class. We w

    continue to carefully watch the pipeline for attractiv

    investment opportunities.

    Monthly Commentary

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    Global Developed Credit

    January was a mixed month for corporate credit.

    Although spreads widened, the decline in interestrates helped produce solid total returns. Despite

    beginning the year with a constructive tone, evidence

    of slower growth in China, volatility in emerging

    markets and a Federal Reserve determined to wind

    down its bond buying program reversed the trend

    causing risk premiums to widen. The Barclays U.S.

    Credit Index ended the month 4 bps wider posting a

    total return of 1.68% and underperforming duration-

    matched Treasuries by 31 bps. The Barclays High

    Yield Index widened by 22 bps during the month

    which resulted in a total return of 70 bps and

    underperformed duration-matched Treasuries by 40

    bps. The Barclays U.S. High Yield Loan Index posted a

    return of 61 bps during the month.

    Within the investment grade universe the best-

    performing sectors with respect to excess return

    included Foreign Local Government (+78 bps); Other

    Financial (+60 bps); Other Industrial (+52 bps);

    Brokerage (+49 bps); and Building Materials (+38

    bps). The worst performing sectors on a relative basis

    included Sovereigns (-2.22%); Home Construction (-

    1.36%); Metals (-94 bps); Wirelines (-83 bps); and O

    Field Services (-80 bps). Higher rated deboutperformed lower quality issues during the mont

    In the high yield space all sectors except for retaile

    were up in the month of January. The top performe

    in high yield were Paper (+2.49%); Brokerag

    (+1.50%); Pharmaceuticals (+1.36%); Healthcar

    (+1.23%); and Pipelines (+1.05%). The wor

    performing sectors were Retailers (-78 bps); Othe

    Finance (+19 bps); Aerospace/Defense (+30 bps

    Consumer Products (+30 bps); and Electric (+34 bps

    Returns were clustered by quality, with Caa-rated an

    Ba-rated debt marginally outperforming single-Bs

    total return. In terms of excess returns, Caa-rate

    debt outperformed both Ba-rated and B-rated debt.

    Fixed-rate investment grade supply for January wa

    approximately $126.9 billion, versus $124.1 billio

    brought to market in January 2013. Non-corporat

    issuers were the most active with $61.6 billion o

    investment grade supply. High yield issuers priced

    total of $23.4 billion in January versus $38.3 billion

    new US dollar-denominated bonds in January 201

    Monthly Commentary

    -4.0%

    -3.0%

    -2.0%

    -1.0%

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    Feb-13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-13

    Jun-13

    Jul-13

    Aug-13

    Sep-13

    Oct-13

    Nov-13

    Dec-13

    Jan-14

    Performance of Select Barclays Indices Last 12 Months

    U.S. High Yield

    U.S. Credit

    U.S. Aggregate

    Source: Barclays Live

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    BillionsofU.S.

    Dollars

    Total Fixed-Rate Investment Grade Supply

    Source: Barclays Live

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    High yield mutual funds had net outflows of $223

    million in January according to Lipper. Meanwhile,

    loan fund inflows remained strong with an additional

    $3.8 billion flowing into loan funds in January, takingthe positive streak of inflows to 85 weeks. There

    were no defaults in January. Overall default activity

    was modest in 2013 as both default volume and the

    high yield default rate reached six-year lows. Only

    $1.1 billion of high yield bonds and loans defaulted

    during the fourth quarter of 2013, which represented

    the lightest quarterly volume since 2007.

    The first month of 2014 also saw a tough start fordeveloped market equities given the notable negative

    swing in sentiment brought about by the turbulence

    in of emerging markets. Despite the fact that the

    Federal Reserve has started to taper its QE Program,

    the 10-year UST yield declined 38 bps during the

    month helping corporate credit to produce positive

    returns despite indices which generally experienced

    spread widening. Investment grade outperformed

    high yield in the sell-off but credit held in reasonably

    well considering some of the issues occurring

    elsewhere on the globe. The default backdrop

    remains benign and corporate borrowers continue to

    maintain relatively healthy balance sheets which, in

    some instances, are laden with cash given the market

    -friendly levels of interest rates which have fueled

    record levels of debt issuance over the past year.

    Monthly Commentary

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    Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

    The U.S. Agency MBS sleeve of the Barclays U.S.

    Aggregate Bond Index had a return of 1.56% for the

    month of January, outpacing the overall return of the

    Index. This is somewhat unusual as historically the

    MBS sleeve has underperformed the overall Index

    during a period of falling interest rates. What

    occurred was the duration of the Barclays U.S. MBS

    Index extended to an all-time high during this period,

    and with that longer duration comes some ability for

    these assets to go up in price more when interest

    rates fall. With the decline in interest rates and rise inMBS prices over the month of January, the duration

    came off its all-time level to stand at 5.3 years as of

    month-end. As expected, the lower coupon

    mortgages appreciated in price more than the higher

    coupon mortgages. An example of this is 30-year

    3.00% Fannie Mae (FNMA) mortgages which were u

    more than 2 points in January. Higher coupo

    mortgages, such as mortgages with a 5.00% or 5.50

    coupon, were up to 1 points for the month.

    Prepayment speeds were down in January for th

    seventh time in eight months. The only month in th

    past eight months that experienced an increase

    these speeds was December 2013. FNM

    prepayment speeds are currently 30% of where the

    were at the start of 2013. Freddie Mac (FHLMCprepayment speeds are 32% relative to the start o

    2013, while Ginnie Mae (GNMA) prepayment speed

    are 41% of where they were at the beginning of 201

    These speeds are the lowest seen by the mortgag

    market since 2009 (also known as the subprim

    crisis). If mortgage rates stay at current levels, w

    expect prepayment speeds to pick over the next fe

    months.

    The mortgage market heard what the Treasury wa

    thinking in regards to mortgages at the Structure

    Finance Industry Group (SFIG) conference held in La

    Vegas in late January. Dr. Michael Stegman from th

    U.S. Treasury Department spoke at the conferenc

    about certain matters on the forefront of investor

    minds pertaining to mortgages and mortgag

    Monthly Commentary

    Conditional Prepayment Rates (CPR)

    2013 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

    FNMA 24.4 24.4 24.0 25.1 22.7 20.5 16.2 12.2 11.5 10.4 10.6 8.7

    FHLMC 26.0 25.9 25.3 25.5 23.4 21.5 17.1 13.1 12.0 10.8 11.1 9.1

    GNMA 21.9 21.8 23.0 22.2 19.4 18.2 14.9 12.2 12.1 11.2 11.2 9.7

    Barclays Capital U.S.

    MBS Index 11/29/2013 12/31/2013 1/31/2014 Change

    Average Dollar Price 103.68 102.91 104.26 1.35

    Duration 5.56 5.62 5.31 -0.31

    Barclays Capital U.S.

    Index Returns 11/29/2013 12/31/2013 1/31/2014

    Aggregate -0.37% -0.57% 1.48%

    MBS -0.62% -0.47% 1.56%

    Corporate -0.27% -0.25% 1.68%

    Treasury -0.33% -0.91% 1.36%

    source: eMBS, Barclays Capital

    1/31/2014

    5.3

    0.00

    1.00

    2.00

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    06/08 12/08 06/09 12/09 06/10 12/10 06/11 12/11 06/12 12/12 06/13 12/13

    Duration of Barclays U.S. MBS Bond Index

    Source: Barclays Live

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    end of 2014. We also continue to notice that th

    supply side of the market continues to change wit

    the recent rise in rates. Gross issuance in January wa

    around $65 billion which save for one month in 201

    was the lowest gross issuance total since March 200

    We do not expect to see issuance numbers ge

    substantially bigger anytime soon unless the marke

    experiences a meaningful drop in rates.

    Monthly Commentary

    securitization. Dr. Stegman addressed several

    important points, including the following highlights:

    He does not think that the Home Affordable

    Refinance Program (HARP) should be extended.

    He believes that there are still many borrowers

    who can benefit from the existing program but a

    change to the problem would affect borrowers

    whose purchase happened after the real estate

    crash and therefore they are not in need of

    financial support. Premium mortgages improved

    with the help of this news as the market viewed itas a lessening of odds of faster prepayments for

    higher coupon mortgages.

    He does not approve of the Eminent Domain

    concept with regards to underwater mortgages.

    Instead he favors refinancing legislation to help

    these borrowers.

    He mentioned the Government Sponsored

    Enterprises (GSEs) and suggested the UST prefers

    a single securitization provider. He believes it is

    important for this provider have a strong TBA

    market to help the liquidity and efficiency of the

    mortgage process. The concept of full faith and

    credit came up in addition to the mention of a

    privately held first-loss piece.

    These decisions, however, would come about from

    what the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA),

    headed by Mel Watt, decides as well as what happens

    to the Corker-Warner Bill or any other policy that will

    determine the fate of the GSEs. In other words, there

    are many more factors to consider.

    The market received another round of Fed tapering in

    January as expected. We continue to believe the

    market has priced in the tapering or end to QE by the

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    dollar settlement to borrowers for allege

    mistreatment. Additionally, there have been rumo

    that several large investment institutions are als

    considering their own lawsuit against Ocwen for the

    loan servicing practices. The record JP Morga

    settlement at the end of 2013 seems to have acted a

    a catalyst for servicer litigation and our expectation

    are that future lawsuits against mortgage service

    are likely.

    Monthly Commentary

    Non-Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

    This year began with a sluggish start in the non-

    Agency MBS market, mainly due to the lack of

    volume. Despite the limited activity, the rally that

    started in the third quarter of 2013 continued

    through January. Bid list activity was not evenly

    distributed with much of the volume being attributed

    to the liquidation of the second segment of the ING

    portfolio. This accounted for $4.6 billion of current

    face, and was concentrated primarily in Alt-A and

    prime non-Agency MBS. Insurance companies

    continued to be the big players with money managersalso winning their share of bonds. Hedge funds and

    other fast money accounts have been fairly quiet on

    these lists as many of the bonds were higher dollar

    price bonds that were higher in the capital structure.

    Yields moved in slightly tighter across all sectors of

    the market. Prime bonds are trading at 4% yields to

    loss adjusted scenarios, Alt-A bonds at 4.5% and

    subprime bonds in the low 5% range.

    Fundamentally, January remittance data was very

    stable with both prepayment speeds and the pace of

    loan liquidations slowing slightly. Prime, Alt-A and

    subprime prepays speeds slowed by 1.3 CPR

    (Conditional Prepayment Rate), 0.6 CPR and 0.1 CPR,

    respectively. Liquidation rates, on average, fell by 0.8

    CDR (Conditional Default Rate), 0.2 CDR, and 0.1 CDR

    for the same markets. Loan modification rates were

    similar to December with 1,958 loans being modified

    during the month with the average rate modification

    of 2.78%.

    News of litigation against loan servicers continues to

    grab the headlines. Most recently it was announced

    that Ocwen Financial was ordered to pay a $2 billion

    86

    91

    96

    101

    106

    111

    116 PrimeX Prices

    PrimeX FRM.1

    PrimeX FRM.2

    Source: MarkIt via Morgan Stanley

    3035

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    65

    70

    75

    80

    /

    /

    /

    /

    ABX Prices

    ABX 2006-2 AAA

    ABX 2007-1 AAA

    Source: MarkIt via Morgan Stanley

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    Markets Index, increased 2.6% in December 201

    while the other subindex, the Non-Major Marke

    Index, was up 2.0%. January loan loss severitie

    averaged 59% over $1 billion of loans liquidate

    according to Trepp Analytics.

    Monthly Commentary

    Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities

    New issuance activity began the year strong in

    January with a total of 7 deals priced equating to

    approximately $6 billion in issuance, including three

    conduit deals totaling $4 billion. February is teeing up

    to be another month of substantial issuance as well.

    Still, this strong start trails that of January 2013 which

    totaled $11 billion. Despite month-end broader

    market de-risking, CMBS generically performed better

    than expected as both legacy and new issue market

    spreads held in, some of which is attributed to the

    stronger investor base as seen in recent months withthe insurance and money manager community

    stepping in. For the month, legacy AAA spreads

    widened by 11 bps to 112 bps over swaps, while on

    the new issuance side AAAs recently priced at 95 bps

    over swaps with BBBs at 365 bps. The CMBS portion

    of the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned

    +0.82% in January.

    The overall U.S. CMBS delinquency rate continued itsdecline in January, dropping 18 bps to 7.25%

    according to Trepp Analytics. The 30+ day

    delinquency rate by property sector was mixed with

    Lodging posting a 56 bps improvement to 7.35%,

    Office improving by 33 bps to 7.80%, and the

    Multifamily Delinquency Rate dropping by 19 bps to

    10.67%. The Industrial and Retail Delinquency Rates

    both increased, however, to 10.59% (+13 bps) and6.13% (+7 bps), respectively. We expect to continue

    to see declining delinquency rates stemming from

    improving market fundamentals, low interest rates

    and increased levels of CMBS special servicer loan

    liquidations. Mirroring this improvement, the

    Moodys/Real Capital Analytics (RCA) Commercial

    Property Price Indices (CPPI) subindex, the Major

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    falling interest rate environment resulted in a highe

    return. Likewise, the municipal bond marke

    combined stable relative value with a long averag

    duration to produce a 1.95% return for January.

    Monthly Commentary

    U.S. Government Securities

    The U.S. Treasury market started 2014 on a positive

    note. The 10-year UST note reached its highest yield

    of 2013 on December 31 at 3.03%. It fell on January

    2nd

    and continued to fall though the remainder of the

    month, ending January at 2.64%. The Barclays U.S.

    Government Index returned 1.31% for the month.

    Trading activity had the hallmarks of a short squeeze.

    A broad spectrum of investors ended 2013 expecting

    higher rates. Portfolios were positioned accordingly,

    with reduced duration and increased credit risk.

    Disappointing U.S. economic data, most notably the

    employment report on January 10th

    and heightened

    emerging market jitters prompted short covering and

    flight-to-quality Treasury buying. This buying helped

    to provide an ongoing bid for intermediate and long

    U.S. Treasuries.

    Short Treasuries were lackluster performers. The two

    -year note fell 4 bps in yield and returned 0.17% on

    the month. The five-year note was a stronger

    performer, falling 23 bps in yield and returning 1.35%.The 30-year bond yield fell 35 bps, generating a

    return of 6.20%.

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) returned

    1.98% in January. TIPS generally underperformed

    comparable duration conventional UST, but the

    longer average duration of the TIPS market in the

    12/31/2013 1/31/2014 Change

    3 month 0.07 0.02 -0.05

    6 month 0.09 0.05 -0.04

    1 year 0.11 0.09 -0.02

    2 year 0.38 0.33 -0.05

    3 year 0.77 0.67 -0.10

    5 year 1.74 1.49 -0.25

    10 year 3.03 2.65 -0.38

    30 year 3.97 3.60 -0.37

    Source: Bloomberg

    Yield Curve

  • 8/12/2019 Doubleline January 2014 Monthly Commentary

    13/13

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