double line gundlach the big easy slides mar 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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LiveWebcasthostedby:
JeffreyGundlach
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
March5,2013
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FundOfferings
RetailandInstitutionalClass
NoLoadMutualFund
RetailandInstitutionalClass
NoLoadMutualFund
TotalReturnBondFund CoreFixedIncomeFund
Retail Inst.Nshare Ishare
Retail Inst.Nshare Ishare
Ticker DLTNX DBLTX
MinInvestment $2,000 $100,000
Min
IRA
Investment $500 $5,000GrossExpenseRatio 0.76% 0.51%
Ticker DLFNX DBLFX
MinInvestment $2,000 $100,000
Min
IRA
Investment $500 $5,000Gross ExpenseRatio 0.80% 0.55%
TheFundsinvestmentobjectives,risks,chargesandexpensesmustbeconsideredcarefullybeforeinvesting.The
prospectuscontains
this
and
other
important
information
about
the
Funds,
and
it
may
be
obtained
by
calling
1
(877)3546311/1(877)DLINE11,orvisitingwww.doublelinefunds.com.Readitcarefullybeforeinvesting.Investmentsindebtsecuritiestypicallydecreaseinvaluewheninterestratesrise.Thisriskisusuallygreaterforlongertermdebtsecurities.
InvestmentsinAssetBackedandMortgageBackedSecuritiesincludeadditionalrisksthatinvestorsshouldbeawareofsuchascreditrisk,prepaymentrisk,
possibleilliquidityanddefault,aswellasincreasedsusceptibilitytoadverseeconomicdevelopments.Investmentsinlowerratedandnonratedsecurities
.
andpolitical,economicandcurrencyrisksanddifferencesinaccountingmethods.TheTotalReturnBondFundintendstoinvestmorethan50%ofitsnetassetsinmortgagebackedsecuritiesofanymaturityortype.
Opinionsexpressedaresubjecttochangeatanytime,arenotforecastsandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestmentadvice.
DoubleLineFunds
are
distributed
by
Quasar
Distributors,
LLC.
WhiletheFundsarenoload,managementfeesandotherexpensesstillapply.Pleaserefertotheprospectusforfurtherdetails.
PastPerformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.Indexperformanceisnotillustrativeoffundperformance.Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinanindex.1
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Announcements
WebcastNews
JeffSherman March19,2013MultiAssetGrowth
1:15pm
PDT/4:15
pm
EDT
LowDurationBondFund
1:15pmPDT/4:15pmEDT
,EmergingMarketsFixedIncome
1:15pmPDT/4:15pmEDT
ToReceivePresentationSlides:
Youcanemail
.
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LiveWebcasthostedby:
JeffreyGundlach
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
March5,2013
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GovernmentSpending
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Trade,ExchangeRates,BudgetsandInterestRates
As
of
October
20,
2012
Germany
Source:http://www.economist.com/news/economicandfinancialindicators/21564865
The
Economist,
Trade,
exchange
rates,
budget
balances
and
interest
rates,
October
20,
2012GDP=Themonetaryvalueofallthefinishedgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountry'sbordersinaspecifictimeperiod,thoughGDPisusuallycalculatedonanannual
basis.
7
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GlobalPublicDebttoTaxRatiosAsofDecember31,2010
Germany
8
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ComparingCentralBanksBalanceSheetsJanuary1,1995throughJanuary31,2013
4000
4500
4000
4500
ComparingCentralBankBalanceSheets
BillionsofUSD
3000
3500
3000
3500 FederalReserve
Bankof
Japan
BankofEngland
EuropeanCentralBank
2000
2500
2000
2500
illio
nsofUS w ss at ona an
1000
1500
1000
1500
0
500
0
500
9Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine Capital
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DevelopedWorldQuantitativeEasing(QE)asa
PercentageofGDP(January1,2007throughFebruary28,2012)
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/10 2/20121029_CB5_1.png
HowCentralBankPolicyImpactsAssetPricesPart5:HowFarCanTheyGo?TylerDurden,October29,2012.Fed USFederalReserve
BoJ =BankofJapan
ECB=EuropeanCentralBank
BoE=BankofEngland
GDP=
GrossDomestic
Product.
The
monetary
value
of
all
the
finished
goods
and
services
produced
within
acountrys
borders
in
aspecific
time
period,
but
calculated
on
anannualbasis.
10
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CentralBanksBalanceSheetsvs.GoldJanuary31,1995throughJanuary31,2013
40000
45000
1800
2000
GoldPrice
30000
35000
1200
1400
1600
eSheets
SD
, ,
BOJ,
ECB,
PBoC,
SNB,
CBR
15000
20000
25000
800
1000
ions
USDBalan
PriceGold
5000
10000
200
400
Bill
00
11
GoldPrice=Goldspotpricequotedintroyounces.
Fed USFederalReserve PBoC =PublicBankofChina
BoJ =BankofJapan SNB=SwissNationalBank
ECB=European
Central
Bank CBR
=Central
Bank
of
Russia
BoE=BankofEngland
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLineCapital
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GlobalFiscalSurplustoGDPAsofDecember31,2010
Germany
GDP=Themonetaryvalueofallthefinishedgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountry'sbordersinaspecifictimeperiod,thoughGDPisusuallycalculatedonanannual
basis.BIS=BureauofindustryandSecurity 12
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NetWorthinFinancialAssetsbyCountryAsofDecember31,2012
13Source:Organization
for
Economic
Cooperation
and
Development
(OECD),
Goldman
Sachs
Equity
Research
The
best
of
Fortnight
Thoughts,
December
13,
2012
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JapansGovernmentSpending
January
1,
2002
through
January
31,
2013
on
InJPY
InJPYBilli
Billion
Germany
Source:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp
growth
annual
JPY=JapaneseYen15
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JapansBirthrate
January
1,
1967
through
January
31,
2013
er1
,000Peopl Pe
r1,000
People
Germany
Source:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp
growth
annual
Crudebirthrateindicatesthenumberoflivebirthsoccurringduringtheyear,per1,000populationestimatedatmidyear.16
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JapansTradeBalance
June28,1985throughDecember31,2012
Germany
Source:Bloomberg
Financial
Services 17
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NikkeiYields
January 1,2000throughOctober31,2012
TheNikkeiisnowevenofferingyieldsaboveJapanesegovernmentbondsandtheUSS&P500yield
Yi
eld(%) Yie
ld(%)
Germany
Year
18
Source:BloombergFinancialServices
Nikkei225
Index
Total
Return
=An
index
showing
the
average
closing
prices
of
225
stocks
on
the
Tokyo
Stock
Exchange.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinanindex.
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Nikkeivs.JapaneseGovernmentBonds
December31,2009throughFebruary28,2013
1.15
1.20
2013) NIKKEI225TotalReturn(JPY)
MerrillLynchJapaneseGovernmentTotalReturn
$1.17
1.00
1.05
1.10
thof1Y
en
February28,
Index(JPY)GOYO$1.08
0.90
0.95
IndexedGro
ber
31,
2009
0.75
0.80
.
(Decem
Germany
19
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,MerrillLynchIndicesdenominatedinJapaneseYen(JPY).
Nikkei225IndexTotalReturn=Anindexshowingtheaverageclosingpricesof225stocksontheTokyoStockExchange.
GOYO=BofA/MerrillLynchJapaneseGovernmentBondIndexTheBofA MerrillLynchJapanGovernmentIndextrackstheperformanceofJPYdenominatedsovereigndebt
publiclyissuedbytheJapanesegovernmentinitsdomesticmarket.Qualifyingsecuritiesmusthaveatleastoneyearremaining
termto
final
maturity,
afixed
coupon
schedule
and
aminimum
amount
outstanding
of
JPY
200
billion.
Thischartillustratestheperformanceofahypothetical1Yeninvestmentmadeintheseindexeson123109.Thischartdoesnot implyanyfutureperformance.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinanindex.
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JapaneseIndexvs.S&P500Growthof$1December29,1989throughFebruary28,2013
NIKKEI225TotalReturn(USD)$5.84
S&P500TotalReturnIndex(USD)
$0.55
20
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapital LPdenominatedinUSdollar.
Nikkei225IndexTotalReturn=Anindexshowingtheaverageclosingpricesof225stocksontheTokyoStockExchange.
S&P500Indexisacapitalizationweightedindexof500stocks.
Thischart
illustrates
the
performance
of
an
hypothetical
$1
investment
made
in
the
two
indexes
on
12
29
89.
This
chart
does
not imply
any
future
performnace.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinanindex.
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Nikkeivs.S&P500 Last10Years
March5,2003throughMarch4,2013
Germany
21
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapital LP
Nikkei225
Index
Total
Return
=An
index
showing
the
average
closing
prices
of
225
stocks
on
the
Tokyo
Stock
Exchange.
SPX=S&P500Indexisacapitalizationweightedindexof500stocks.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinanindex.
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12MonthJPYvs.5yearJPY
AsofMarch4,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLPdenominatedinU.S.Dollars
JPY=TheNYSEArca JapanIndexisapriceweightedindexof210commonstockstradedontheTokyoStockExchangerepresenting abroadselectionofindustries.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
22
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JapaneseConsumerConfidenceJanuary1,2010throughJanuary31,2013
23http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2013/02/japaneseconsumerconfidencemakes.html
JCOMSHCF=JapaneseConsumerConfidenceindex.SubjecttoonemonthlagreleasedbytheEconomicandSocialResearchInstitute.
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U.S.Surplus/DeficitAsAPercentageofGNP/GDPDecember31,1790throughDecember31,2011
Source:http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp
content/uploads/2012/12/surplus
deficit
gnp.png
GrossNationalProduct(GNP)orGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)=ReferstothegrossDomesticProductormarketvalueofallfinal goodsandservicesproduced
withinacountryinagivenperiod.
24
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USDebt&GDP
January1,2009throughJune30,2012
Germany
25
Source:AdvisorPerspectives.com,Strrettalklive.com
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/LanceRoberts
121118
Ceilings
Cliffs
and
TAG.php
GDP=GrossDomesticProduct.Referstoallofthegoodsandservicesproducedinaneconomy.
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DebtTransferfromPrivatetoPublic
26http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324906004578287810277763042.htmlGDP=GrossDomesticProduct.Theamountofgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagiveneconomy.
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FederalReserveBalanceSheet
December18,2002throughApril18,2011
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article29854.html,TheMarketOracle
MaidenLane,AIAAuroraLLCandALICOarealllimitedpartnershipsformedbytheUSGovernmenttoallowth eFederalReservetopurchase,sellandtransferAmerican
InsuranceGroup
(AIG)
and
Bear
Stearns
assets.
The
TALF
LLC
was
aspecial
purpose
vehicle
to
consolidate
Federal
Reserve
NY
Balance
sheet. 28
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WhatDidtheAggregateQEProgramsGiveus?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/102/20121029_CB1_1.png
QE=QuantitativeEasingprograms.Source:
Bloomberg,
DoubleLine Capital 29
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PerformanceSinceInceptionQE2October4,2011throughMarch4,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices
CRY=TR/JCRBCommoditiesExcessReturnIndexisanarithmeticaverageofcommodityfuturesprocesswithmonthlyrebalancing.
SPX=Standard
&
Poors
500
Index
is
acapitalization
weighted
index
of
500
stocks.
The
index
is
designed
to
measure
performance of
the
broad
domestic
economy.
TLT=iShares Barclays20+YearTreasuryBondFundinanexchangetradedfundincorporatedintheUSA.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
30
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LaborParticipationRatesbyAgeGroupJanuary1,1990through2020ProjectedEstimates
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/understandingdecline
in
participation.html
Source:CalculatedRiskBlog
31
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InflationComparisonJanuary1,1978throughSeptember30,2012
32http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/08/tradingcaps
and
gowns
for
mops
why
go.html
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%ofDebtBalance90+DaysDelinquentJanuary1,2003throughMarch31,2012
33http://www.cnbc.com/id/49983471
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%of90+DayDelinquentStudentLoans
December31,2002throughSeptember30,2012
34
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StudentTuitionCostsvs.AverageGraduateEarningsJune30,2000throughJune30,2010
35
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TABIIBloodlessVerdictoftheMarket
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BofA/MerrillFixedIncomeIndexReturns
Grey=Year2012
Blue=YearToDate2013
4.74%15.44%
13.63%
HighYield(JOAO)
Convertibles(VOSO)
1.43%
.
9.52%
18.30%InternationalEmerging(IGOV)
0.49%
0.14%
3.28%InternationalDeveloped(NOGO)
orpora e
0.20%
0.14%
2.19%
.
Government(G0A0)
Mortgages(MOAO)
37
DataSource:BofA/MerrillLynchIndicesthroughyearendDecember31,2012andyeartodate2013throughMarch1,2013.
Pleasesee
the
Appendix
for
index
definitions.
An
investment
cannot
be
made
directly
in
an
index.
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BofA/MerrillFixedIncomeIndexReturns
19.70%
rey=
ear
Blue=YearToDate2013
1.26%
3.65%
14.36%BBRatedHighYieldCredit(JOA1)
1.75%
11.98%
15.03%
BRatedHighYield(JOA2)
0.03%
0.29%
9.82%ARatedCredit(COA3)
0.42% 3.97%AAARatedCredit(COA1)
DataSource:BofA/MerrillLynchIndicesthroughyearendDecember31,2012andyeartodate2013throughMarch1,2013.
PleaseseetheAppendixforindexdefinitions.Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
38
InvestmentGrade=IndicesratedAAAtoBBB (shownabove)areconsideredtobeinvestmentgrade. AbondisconsideredinvestmentgradeifitscreditratingisBBB or
higherbyStandard&PoorsorBaa3byMoodys.Thehighertherating,themorelikelythebondistopaybackatpar/$100cents onthedollar.AAAisconsideredthehighest
qualityand thelowestdegreeofrisk.Theyareconsideredtobestableanddependable.
BelowInvestmentGrade=Alsoknownasjunkbond(shownabove)isasecurityratedbelowinvestmentgradehavingaratingofBBB orbelow.Thesebondsareseenas
havinghigher
default
risk
or
other
adverse
credit
events,
but
typically
pay
higher
yields
than
better
quality
bonds
in
order to make
them
attractive.
They
are
less
likely
to
pay
backatpar/$100centsonthedollar.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
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Eurovs.S&P500IndexMay23,2011throughMarch42013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices
S&P500indexisabasketof500stocksthatareconsideredtobewidelyheld.Itisweightedbymarketvalueanditsperformanceisthoughttoberepresentativeofthestockmarketas
awhole.
Euro
=
The
official
currency
of
the
European
Union
(EU)
members
who
have
adopted
it
including:
Austria,
Belgium,
Finland,
France,
Germany,
Greece,
Ireland,
Italy,
Luxembourg,
the
Netherlands,NewZealand,Portugal,andSpain.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
39
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S&P500IndexandShanghaiIndexJuly11,2011throughMarch4,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
S&P500indexisabasketof500stocksthatareconsideredtobewidelyheld.Itisweightedbymarketvalueanditsperformanceisthoughttoberepresentativeofthestock
marketasawhole.SPXTistheS&P500indexnettotalreturnindex.
SHCOMP
=
The
Shanghai
Stock
Exchange
Composite
is
a
capitalization
weighted
index
tracking
daily
price
performance
of
all
A
and
B
shares
listed
on
the
Shanghai
Stock
Exchange.ThisindexwasdevelopedDecember19,1990withabasevalueof100.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
40
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ShanghaiIndexDecember31,2009throughMarch42013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
Note:
The
Shanghai
Stock
Exchange
Composite
is
a
capitalization
weighted
index
tracking
daily
price
performance
of
all
A
and
B
shares
listed
on
the
Shanghai
Stock
Exchange.ThisindexwasdevelopedDecember19,1990withabasevalueof100.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
41
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GoldSpotIndexYearEnd2007throughMarch4,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
42
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CRBCommodityIndexYearEnd2007throughFebruary28,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
Note:
The
TR/J
CRB
Commodity
Excess
Return
Index
is
an
arithmetic
average
of
commodity
futures
prices
with
monthly
rebalancing.Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
43
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HomeownershipRate
, ,
45Source:BloombergFinancialServicesHomeownership
affordability
measured
quarterly
and
subject
to
aone
month
lag.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
45
f d
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MortgageRefinancingIndexJanuary4,2002throughFebruary22,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices
MortgageRefinancingIndexasmeasuredbythe MortgageBankersAssociation.Reflectsthenumberofapplicationsforrefinance.Notallapplicationsareaccepted.
Aninvestment
cannot
be
made
directly
in
an
index.
4646
30 Y U S M R
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30YearU.S.MortgageRatesDecember31,2007throughMarch1,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,Bankrate.com
ILM3NAVG=The
Overnight
National
Average
of
the
U.S.
30
year
Treasury
interest
rate.
They
help
consumers
see
the
movement
of rates
day
to
day.
Subject
to
one
daylag.
4747
Home Price Index Levels and Year Over Year Change
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HomePriceIndexLevelsandYearOverYearChangeJanuary1,2000andJanuary1,2001throughOctober2012
S&P/CaseShiller
HomePriceIndex
S&P/CaseShiller
HomePriceIndex
CoreLogic
NationalHousing
PriceIndex
CoreLogicNational
HousingPriceIndex
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,CaseShiller
48
48
S&P/CaseShillerHomePriceIndexiscomprisedofpricechangeswithinthefollowingsubsetof20metropolitanmarkets:10City IndexBoston,Chicago,Denver,LasVegas,Los
Angeles,Miami,NewYork,SanDiego,SanFranciscoandWashingtonDC.Inadditiontothe10CityIndexitincludes:Atlanta,Charlotte,Cleveland,Dallas,Detroit,Minneapolis,
Phoenix,Portland,Seattle,andTampa.
CoreLogicNationalHousingPriceIndex(HPI)=CoreLogicisaleadingproviderofinformationandanalytics.Thisindexcovers 6,208zipcodes,572statisticalareasand1,027
countieslocatedinall50statesandDistrictofColumbia.Itisanationalaverage.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
Home Prices in Major US Metropolitan Areas
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HomePricesinMajorUSMetropolitanAreas
January1,2006throughDecember31,2012
49
ABX AAA 071 Index
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ABXAAA07 1Index
December31,2009throughMarch4,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
TheABX071AAAIndexisabasketofhomeequity.Constitutedfromreferenceobligationsissuedby20issuersofresidentialmortgagebackedsecurities.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
50
Non Agency RMBS 60++ Delinquency Rate
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NonAgencyRMBS60++DelinquencyRateJanuary31,2005throughJanuary31,2013
60%
39.4%
40%
uencies
anuary20
13
23.4%
20%
30%
0+
+SeriousDelin
ary2005throughJ
11.1%
10%
Janu
AltA
Subprime
0%
SeriousDelinquenciesisdefinedbymortgagesthatare60++delinquencyratesdefinedasloans60 or90dayslateinmortgagepayments,oralreadyinforeclosureorREOstatus.
PrimedefinedasFICO>725andLTV725andLTV>=75
Subprimedefined
as
FICO
725andLTV725andLTV>=75
Subprimedefined
as
FICO
725andLTV725andLTV>=75
Subprimedefined
as
FICO