don bay tai chinh va co cau von
TRANSCRIPT
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Viktoria Dalko 1
Phn tch ti chnh
0
n by ti chnhv ccu vn
1
Cc khi nim v k nng then cht
Hiu c nh hng ca n by ti chnh ivi dng tin v chi ph s dng vn
Hiu c tc ng ca thu v ph sn i vivic chn la ccu vn
Hiu c nhng thnh phn cbn ca qu trnhph sn
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Viktoria Dalko 2
Phn tch ti chnh
2
Khi qut chng ny
Vn ccu vn nh hng ca n by ti chnh Ccu vn v chi ph s dng vn shu nh l M&M I v II vi thu thu nhp doanh nghip Chi ph ph sn Ccu vn ti u Quay li vi cu chuyn bnh Ccu vn quan st c
Xem nhanh qu trnh ph sn
3
Ti ccu vn
Chng ta s xem th nhng thay i ca ccuvn nh hng nh th no n gi tr ca cngty, nu nhng yu t khc khng i
Ti ccu vn lin quan n vic thay i gi trn by ti chnh cng ty hin ang c m khngthay i ti sn ca cng ty
Tng n by ti chnh bng cch pht hnh nvmua li c phiu ang lu hnh
Gim nbng cch pht hnh c phiu mi v thuhi chng khon n ang lu hnh
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Phn tch ti chnh
4
La chn mt ccu vn
Mc ch chnh ca cc gim c ti chnh l g? Ti a ho ca ci ca c ng
Chng ta mun chn mt ccu vn m ti aho ca ci c ng
Chng ta c th ti a ho ca ci c ng bngcch ti a ho gi tr cng ty hay ti thiu hoWACC
5
nh hng ca n by
n by nh hng nh th no n EPS v ROE camt cng ty?
Khi chng ta tng gi tr huy ng n, chng ta tng chiph li vay c nh
Nu chng ta c mt nm lm n thc s khm kh, thchng ta tr chi ph c nh v chng ta vn cn nhiutin li cho cc c ng
Nu chng ta c mt nm lm n bt bt, chng ta vnphi tr chi ph c nh v cn li t hn cho cc c ng
n by ti chnh phng i s bin thin ca EPS vROE
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Viktoria Dalko 4
Phn tch ti chnh
6
V d: n by ti chnh, EPS v ROE
Lc ny, chng ta s b qua nh hng ca thu Chuyn g xy ra cho EPS v ROE khi chng ta
pht hnh nv mua li c phiu?
Financial Leverage Example
7
V d: n by ti chnh, EPS v ROE
Bin thin ca ROE Hin ti: ROE nm trong phm vi t 6.25% n
18.75% xut: ROE nm trong phm vi t 2.50% n
27.50%
Bin thin ca EPS Hin ti: EPS nm trong phm vi t $1.25 n $3.75 xut: EPS nm trong phm vi t $0.50 n $5.50
Bin thin ca ROE v EPS u tng ln khi tatng n by ti chnh
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Phn tch ti chnh
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EBIT ho vn
Tm EBIT m EPS ca ccu vn hin tiv ccu vn xut c gi tr bng nhau
Nu chng ta k vng EBIT ln hn im hovn, th n by ti chnh c li cho cc c ng
Nu chng ta k vng EBIT nh hn im hovn, th n by ti chnh gy thit hi cho cc cng
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V d: EBIT ho vn
( )
$2.00400,000
800,000EPS
$800,000EBIT
800,0002EBITEBIT
400,000EBIT200,000
400,000EBIT
200,000
400,000EBIT
400,000
EBIT
==
=
=
=
=
Break-even Graph
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Phn tch ti chnh
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V d: n by t to v ROE
Ccu vn hin ti
Nh u t vay $2000 v sdng $2000 ca mnh mua 200 c phn thng
Kt qu: Tnh hung suy thoi:
200(1.25) - .1(2000) = $50 K vng: 200(2.50) - .1(2000)
= $300 Tnh hung pht t:
200(3.75) - .1(2000) = $550
Phn nh kt qu ca vicmua 100 c phn t cng tytheo ccu vn xut
Ccu vn xut Nh u t mua c phiu tr
gi $1000 (50 c phn) v triphiu cng ty tr gi $1000hng li 10%.
Kt qu: Tnh hung suy thoi: 50(.50) +
.1(1000) = $125 K vng: 50(3.00) + .1(1000) =
$250 Tnh hung pht t: 50(5.50) +
.1(1000) = $375
Phn nh kt qu ca vic mua100 c phn theo ccu vn
hin ti
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L thuyt ccu vn
L thuyt Modigliani v Miller v ccu vn nh l I Gi tr cng ty
nh l II WACC
Gi tr ca cng ty c xc nh bng dng tin
ca cng ty v ri ro ca ti sn Thay i gi tr cng ty
Thay i ri ro ca dng tin
Thay i dng tin
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Phn tch ti chnh
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L thuyt ccu vn trong ba trnghp c bit
Trng hp I Cc gi nh Khng c thu thu nhp cng ty hay thu thu nhp c nhn
Khng c chi ph ph sn
Trng hp II Cc gi nh C thu thu nhp cng ty, nhng khng c thu thu nhp c nhn
Khng c chi ph ph sn
Trng hp III Cc gi nh C thu thu nhp cng ty, nhng khng c thu thu nhp c nhn
C chi ph ph sn
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Trng hp I nh l I v II
nh l I Gi tr ca cng ty KHNG b nh hng bi nhng
thay i ca ccu vn
Dng tin ca cng ty khng thay i, do gi tr
cng ty khng thay i nh l II
WACC ca cng ty KHNG b nh hng bi ccuvn
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Phn tch ti chnh
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Trng hp I Cc phng trnh
WACC = RA = (E/V)RE + (D/V)RD
RE = RA + (RA RD)(D/E)
RA l chi ph ri ro kinh doanh ca cng ty, ngha lri ro ca ti sn ca cng ty
(RA RD)(D/E) l chi ph ri ro ti chnh ca cngty, ngha l sinh li tng thm m cc c ng yu cu n b cho ri ro ca n by ti chnh
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Chi ph s dngvn (%)
T s n trnvn s hu
theo nh l M&M II
Trong
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Phn tch ti chnh
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Trng hp I V d
S liu Sut sinh li yu cu i vi ti sn = 16%, chi ph s
dng n= 10%; phn trm n= 45% Chi ph s dng vn shu l bao nhiu?
RE = .16 + (.16 - .10)(.45/.55) = .2091 = 20.91% Gi s thay v nh th, chi ph s dng vn shu by
gil 25%, t s ntrn vn shu bng bao nhiu? .25 = .16 + (.16 - .10)(D/E) D/E = (.25 - .16) / (.16 - .10) = 1.5
Da vo nhng thng tin ny, t l phn trm vn shu
trong cng ty l bao nhiu? E/V = 1 / 2.5 = 40%
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CAPM, SML v nh l II
n by ti chnh nh hng nh th no n riro h thng?
CAPM: RA = Rf+ A(RM Rf) Trong A l h s beta ca ti sn cng ty v xc
nh ri ro h thng ca ti sn cng ty nh l II
Thay th RA vi CAPM v gi nh rng nkhng cri ro (RD = Rf)
RE = Rf+ A(1+D/E)(RM Rf)
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Phn tch ti chnh
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Ri ro kinh doanh v ri ro ti chnh
RE = Rf+ A(1+D/E)(RM Rf) CAPM: RE = Rf+ E(RM Rf)
E = A(1 + D/E)
Do , ri ro h thng ca c phiu ph thucvo: Ri ro h thng ca ti sn, A, (ri ro kinh doanh) Mc n by ti chnh, D/E, (ri ro ti chnh)
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Trng hp II Dng tin
Li vay c khu tr thu
Do , khi mt cng ty b sung thm n, cng tys gim c tin thu, nu nhng yu t khckhng c g thay i
Vic gim thu lm tng dng tin ca cng ty Dng tin tng nh hng nh th no n gi tr
ca cng ty?
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Phn tch ti chnh
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Trng hp II V d
34703300CFFA
29703300Thu nhp rng
15301700Thu (34%)
45005000Thu nhp chuthu
5000Li vay
50005000EBIT
Cng ty vay nCng ty khngvay n
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L chn thu ca li vay
L chn thu hng nm ca li vay Thu sut thu thu nhp cng ty nhn cho tin li
N6250 vi li sut 8% = 500 chi ph li
L chn thu hng nm = .34(500) = 170
Gi tr hin ti ca l chn thu hng nm n gin, ta gi nh nvnh cu
PV = 170 / .08 = 2125
PV = D(RD)(TC) / RD = DTC = 6250(.34) = 2125
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Phn tch ti chnh
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Trng hp II nh l I
Gi tr ca cng ty tng ln mt lng bng gi trhin ti ca l chn thu hng nm t li vay Gi tr ca cng ty khi c vay n= Gi tr ca cng ty
khi khng vay n+ Gi tr hin ti ca l chn thu tli vay
Gi tr vn shu = Gi tr cng ty Gi tr n
Gi nh dng tin vnh cu
VU = EBIT(1-T) / RU VL = VU + DTC
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V d: Trng hp II nh l I
S liu EBIT = 25 triu -la; Thu sut = 35%; N= 75 triu
-la; Chi ph s dng n= 9%; Chi ph s dng vnca cng ty khi khng vay n= 12%
VU = 25(1-.35) / .12 = 135.42 triu -la VL = 135.42 + 75(.35) = 161.67 triu -la
E = 161.67 75 = 86.67 triu -la
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Phn tch ti chnh
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Gi tr ca cng ty
Tng n
Gi tr ca cng ty tng khi tng n tng do l chn thu t li vay.y lc s ca nh l M&M I khi c thu.
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Trng hp II nh l II
WACC gim khi D/E tng v chnh ph khngnh thu i vi li vay RA = (E/V)RE + (D/V)(RD)(1-TC) RE = RU + (RU RD)(D/E)(1-TC)
V d RE = .12 + (.12-.09)(75/86.67)(1-.35) = 13.69% RA = (86.67/161.67)(.1369) + (75/161.67)(.09)
(1-.35)RA = 10.05%
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Phn tch ti chnh
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V d: Trng hp II nh l II
Gi s cng ty thay i ccu vn sao cho t sntrn vn shu trnn bng 1. iu g s xy ra cho chi ph s dng vn shu
ng vi ccu vn mi? RE = .12 + (.12 - .09)(1)(1-.35) = 13.95%
iu g s xy ra cho chi ph s dng vn bnhqun trng s? RA = .5(.1395) + .5(.09)(1-.35) = 9.9%
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Theonh l M&M I khi c thu, WACC ca cngty gim xung khi cng ty huy ng n nhiu hn
Chi ph s dng vn
Theonh l M&M II khi c thu, chi ph vn s hu ca cng ty tng ln khi cng ty huy ng n nhiu hn
T s n trn vn s hu
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Phn tch ti chnh
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Trng hp III
By gichng ta b sung thm chi ph ph sn Khi t s D/E tng ln, xc sut ph sn tng ln Xc sut ph sn tng s lm tng chi ph ph sn k vng n mt im no , gi tr tng ln ca l chn thu t
li vay s b b tr bi chi ph ph sn k vng im ny, gi tr ca cng ty s bt u gim v WACC
s bt u tng khi cng ty vay thm n
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Chi ph ph sn
Nhng chi ph trc tip Chi ph php l v chi ph qun l Cui cng lm cho cc c ng phi pht sinh thm tn
tht Lm cho ngi ta nn lng, khng mun huy ng n
Tnh trng khn kh v ti chnh Nhng kh khn ng k trong vic p ng cc ngha
v n Hu ht nhng cng ty tri qua tnh trng khn kh v ti
chnh cui cng khng n mc phi np h sph sn
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Phn tch ti chnh
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Chi ph ph sn
Chi ph ph sn gin tip Ln hn nhng chi ph trc tip, nhng kh o lng v
c lng hn Cc c ng mun trnh khng cho xy ra vic chnh thc
np h sxin ph sn Cc ch nmun gi nguyn nhng ti sn hin hu ch
t h cng c th nhn c lng tin Ti sn mt gi tr khi i ng qun l mt thi gian lo lng
vic trnh n ph sn thay v iu hnh hot ng kinhdoanh
Ngoi ra, cng ty cn b mt doanh s, gin on hot ngv mt i nhng ngi lao ng ng gi
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Gi tr ca cng ty
Gi tr hin ti cal chn thu
Gi tr ti aca cng ty Gi tr thc t ca cng ty
Chi ph nguy kchti chnh
Gi tr cng ty khikhng c n
Tng n
Lng n ti u
Theo l thuyt tnh, li ch t l chn thu b b tr bi chi ph ca tnh trng khnkh v ti chnh. C cu vn ti u tn ti im cn bng gia li ch tng thmt n by ti chnh v chi ph khn kh ti chnh tng thm.
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Viktoria Dalko 17
Phn tch ti chnh
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Chi ph s dng vn
T s n-vn s hu
Chi ph s dngvn WACC*
ti thiu
T s n-vn s hu ti u
Theo l thuyt tnh, WACC thot u gim do li th v thu ca n. Vtqua im D*/E*, WACC bt u tng ln do chi ph khn kh ti chnh.
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Kt lun Trng hp I Khng c thu hay chi ph ph sn
Khng c ccu vn ti u
Trng hp II C thu thu nhp cng ty nhng khngc chi ph ph sn Ccu vn ti u l 100% n Mi mt -la ntng thm s lm tng dng tin ca cng
ty Trng hp III C thu thu nhp cng ty v c chi ph
ph sn Ccu vn ti u l mt phn nv mt phn vn shu Xy ra khi li ch t mt -la ntng thm va b tr
bi s gia tng chi ph ph sn k vng
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Viktoria Dalko 18
Phn tch ti chnh
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Gi tr cng ty
Chi ph s dngvn bnh qun
trng s (%)
Trng hp IIM&M c thu
Li chrngt n by
PV cachi ph phsn
Trng hp III, L thuyt tnh
Trng hp I, M&M khng thu
Tng n (D)
Trng hp I, khikhng c thu hay chi ph ph sn, gi tr ca cngty vchi ph s dng vn bnhqun trng s khng b nhhng bi c cu thu
Trng hp II, khi cthu vkhngc chi ph ph sn, gi tr cngty tngv chi ph s dng vn bnhqun trng s gim khilng n tngln.
Trng hp III, khic thu vc chi ph ph sn, gi tr cngty VL t ti a im D*, tiu biucho lng n ti u. Vo lcny, chi ph s dng vn bnhqun trng s WACC t g i tr cc tiu ti D*/E*.
Trng hp III, L thuyt tnh
Trng hp II, M&M cthu
T s n-vn s hu (D/E)
Tit kimrngt n byTrng hp I, M&M khng thu
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Nhng kin ngh v mt qun tr
Li ch thu ca li vay ch quan trng khi cngty c mt ngha v thu ln
Ri ro ca tnh trng khn kh v ti chnh Ri ro khn kh ti chnh cng ln, th lng nt hn
s l ti u i vi cng ty Chi ph khn kh ti chnh thay i tu theo tng cng
ty v tng ngnh, v l nh qun tr, bn cn hiu chiph i vi ngnh kinh doanh ca mnh
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Viktoria Dalko 19
Phn tch ti chnh
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n by ti chnh thp n by ti chnh cao
N N
Phn cach s hu Phn ca
ch s hu
Phn linquan nph sn
Thu
Phn linquan nphsn
Thu
Trong m hnh bnh m rng, gi tr ca t c cc quyni vi ngn luca cng ty khng b nh hng bi c cu vn, nhng gi tr tng ica tng quyn thay i khi lng n huy ng tng ln.
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Gi tr ca cng ty Gi tr ca cng ty = Cc quyn c th trao i +
cc quyn khng th trao i Quyn c th mua bn l quyn ca c ng v ch n Quyn khng mua bn l quyn ca chnh ph v cc
thnh phn c lin quan tim nng khc
Gi tr chung ca cng ty khng b nh hng binhng thay i ca ccu vn S phn chia gi tr gia quyn c th trao i v
quyn khng th trao i c th chu tc ng canhng quyt nh v ccu vn
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Viktoria Dalko 20
Phn tch ti chnh
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Ccu vn m ta quan st c
Ccu vn thay i theo tng ngnh kinh doanhkhc nhau S khc bit cn c theoNin gim chi ph s
dng vn 2000 ca Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Mc nthp nht Ngnh dc phm vi 2.75% n Ngnh my tnh vi 6.91% n
Mc ncao nht Ngnh thp vi 55.84% n Ca hng kinh doanh tng hp vi 50.53% n
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V d trn Web
Bn c th tm thy thng tin v ccu vn camt cng ty so vi ccu ton ngnh, khu vc, vS&P 500 Yahoo Marketguide
Nhp chut vo cng c d tm i ti trang
web Chn mt cng ty v mt bng nim yt
Chn so snh t s
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Phn tch ti chnh
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Qu trnh ph sn Phn I
Tht bi kinh doanh vic kinh doanh kt thcvi s thit hi cho cc ch n
Ph sn chnh thc n xin ph sn np cho toph sn lin bang
Khng tr c nv mt k thut cng tykhng th p ng cc ngha v n
Khng tr c nv mt k ton gi tr s
sch ca vn shu c gi tr m
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Qu trnh ph sn Phn II
Thanh l Chng 7 ca Lut ph sn lin bang ci cch nm 1978
n v c u thc s tip qun ti sn, bn ti sn v phn phitin thu c cn c theo nguyn tc u tin tuyt i
Ti t chc Chng 11 ca Lut ph sn lin bang ci cch nm 1978 Ti ccu cng ty vi mt iu khon qui nh vic hon tr cho
cc ch n
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Hi p nhanh
Gii thch nh hng ca n by ti chnh ivi EPS v ROE EBIT ho vn l g? Lm th no chng ta xc nh c ccu vn
ti u? Ccu vn ti u trong ba trng hp tho lun
trong chng ny l g? S khc bit gia thanh l cng ty v ti t chc
cng ty l g?