Michael P. WalshInternational Consultant

Chairman, Board of Directors, ICCT

CSE Roundtable: Is clean diesel a myth or a solution?Delhi, India

10 December, 2007

PM Air Pollution in India Cities is Already A Very Serious Problem; NO2 and Ozone Also Concerns

New Diesel Vehicles in India Emit One to Two Orders of Magnitude Higher PM Than Gasoline Vehicles; At Least Three Times More NOx

If ULSD (< 50 ppm S) Was Available, Tight Standards Requiring Diesels As Clean As Gasoline Would Be Possible

Until Then, Diesel Cars Are Not Environmentally Viable In India

JanuaryMarch

MayJuly

SeptemberNovember

0

100

200

300

400

PM2.5

PM10

WHO PM2.5

WHO PM10

Source: Dr. SenguptaCPCB

Concentration of PM 2.5 & PM 10 in 2005 Delhi (B.S.Z. Marg)

10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

PM 10 & 2.5CONTINUOUS MONITOR AT

BHADUR SHAH ZAFAR MARG (ITO), NEW DELHI

PM 10 & 2.5CONTINUOUS MONITOR AT

BHADUR SHAH ZAFAR MARG (ITO), NEW DELHI

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Valu

es in

ug/

m3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Reg

iste

red

Vehi

cle

Popu

latio

n in

Mill

ions

Residential Industrial Traffic Intersection Vehicle Population

Residential NA NA NA 120 139 127 131

Industrial NA NA NA 150 167 140 140

Traffic Intersection 200 216 191 180 270 244 228

Vehicle Population 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1

1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

RESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Valu

es in

ug/

m3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Reg

iste

red

Vehi

cle

Popu

latio

n in

Mill

ions

Residential Industrial Traffic Intersection Vehicle Population

Residential 29 27 29 28.7 33 37.9 40

Industrial 35 34 34 29 35 36 42

Traffic Intersection 63 60 59 67 75 94 89

Vehicle Population 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1

1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

OXIDES OF NITROGEN (NOX) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR

Gobin

dgarh

Ludhiana

Raipur

Lucknow

Kanpur

Jala

ndhar

Alwar

Jhar

ia

Dehra

dun

Farid

abadAgra

Ahmed

abad

Vapi

Solapur

Jam

nagar

Indore

Ankales

hwar

SatnaSura

t

Dhanbad

Bhilai

Delhi

Howra

h

Guwah

ati

Kolkat

a

Patna

Nagda

Jodhpur

Nasik

Chandra

purKota

Varan

asi

Pune

Visak

hapat

nam96

Rourkela

Vadodar

a

Chandig

arh

Jabal

pur

Jaip

ur

Mum

bai

Udaipur

Trive

ndrumKorb

a

Hyder

abad

Rayag

ada

Bangalo

re

Nagpur

Kozhiko

de

Titico

rin

Angul

Gajr

aula 51

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

RSPM Annual average concentration during 2005 in

India (micrograms/m3)

Delhi

Combustion products

Minerals

Salt

Diesel sootDiesel soot

Source: Umweltbundesamt, Wien

8

Developmental EffectsDevelopmental Effects

HospitalizationHospitalization

Asthma Attacks and BronchitisAsthma Attacks and Bronchitis

PrematurePremature DeathsDeaths

CancerCancer

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

All CausesPulmonaryLung Cancer

9Journal of American Medical Association, March 2002

10

Clean Diesel or Clean Diesel or Dirty Diesel?Dirty Diesel?

SCR behind CDPF

NOx trap in front of CDPF

12Euro 4 2005 Euro 5 2010 Euro 6 2015 US Tier 2 Avg0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Grams/Km

Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PMx10

EU and US Light Duty Gasoline and EU and US Light Duty Gasoline and Diesel Vehicle StandardsDiesel Vehicle Standards

May/Will Include ANumber Based PMStandard

Clean Vehicle Technologies Are Already Entering The Marketplace

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4

g/k

m

NEDCCADC

EU 5

Limit

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4

g/k

m

NEDCCADC

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4

g/k

m

NEDCCADC

Actual NOx Levels Are Much Higher Than Type Approval Indicates

How have specific NOx emissions of diesel passenger cars evolved in the past?

Sulfate (SO4)

Adsorbed Hydrocarbons

Solids (SOL) Solid Carbon Spheres

(0.01-0.08 mm) combine to make agglomerates(0.05-1.0 mm) Adsorbed Hydrocarbons

Adsorbed Hydrocarbons

Liquid Condensed Hydrocarbon Particles

Sulfate with Hydration

Vapour Phase Hydrocarbons

Soluble Organic Fraction (SOF)/Particle Phase Hydrocarbons

Inlet Outlet

16

Low Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum BenefitsLow Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum BenefitsSensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot FiltersSensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot Filters

17

0 20 40 60 80 100

Tier 4 nonroad

Heavy-dutyhighway

Tier 2 Light-dutyhighway

$ Billion Annually in 2030

cost

benefitTotal Cost: $11 billionTotal Cost: $11 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billion

181995 2000 20050

50

100

150

200

250

300

(tons/year)PM Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

ThousandsNumber of Buses

PM Buses

The Bottom Line: From 1995-2005, Fleetwide PM Reduced 97% While Fleet

Grew By 33%

As Part of An Overall Strategy, Retrofits and CNG Work

Initiative „No DIESEL without Filter“ started

Automotive Industry shall only sell diesel cars with soot filters from summer 2003

Greenpeace Germany Demonstrations

Would You Rather PutA Filter on Your CarOr Your Child?

23

No UnlessUS Tier 2 or

Euro 5 Standards Apply &

ULSD Available

Euro 4 2005 Euro 5 2010 Euro 6 2015 US Tier 2 Avg0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Grams/Km

Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PMx10

EU and US Light Duty Gasoline and EU and US Light Duty Gasoline and Diesel Vehicle StandardsDiesel Vehicle Standards

1/1/2006 – New Gasoline Cars Meet Euro 4 standards

1/1/2006 – New Diesel Cars Meet CA LEV2 standards

ULSD (Maximum 50 PPM) Required At Present

Tax Incentive Introduced Dec 1 For 10 PPM Sulfur Limits

24

PM Air Pollution in India Cities is Already A Very Serious Problem; NO2 and Ozone Also Concerns

New Diesel Vehicles in India Emit One to Two Orders of Magnitude Higher PM Than Gasoline Vehicles; At Least Three Times More NOx

If ULSD (< 50 ppm S) Was Available, Tight Standards Requiring Diesels As Clean As Gasoline Would Be Possible

Until Then, Diesel Cars Are Not Environmentally Viable In India