PROCESSUS 2nd International Colloquium on the Behavioural Foundations of Integrated Land-use and Transportation Models: Frameworks, Models and Applications

Dimitris PotoglouPavlos S. Kanaroglou

Potential Demand for Household Alternative Fuelled Vehicles:An Internet Survey Instrument

Centre for Spatial AnalysisSchool of Geography and Geology

McMaster University

Outline

• Development Trends in the Automotive Industry

• Research Questions / Objectives• Modelling Approach• Data Collection: Internet Survey• Anticipated Outcomes and Next

Steps

Development Trends

HighLow

Efficiency

Very LowEmissions

LowEmissions

ICE

DirectInjection

Diesel

AdvancedICE

ElectronicCamshaftsDirect

Injection

HybridElectricVehicles

FuelCells

DieselHybrid

Research Questions / Objectives

• What are the major vehicle attributes and household characteristics influencing vehicle transactions and vehicle-type choice?

• What are the major factors and trade-offs of vehicle attributes for switching from conventional to alternative fuelled vehicle technologies?

• How can we simulate future vehicle demand allowing for scenario building and policy implications regarding alternative fuelled vehicle technologies?

Modelling Framework

AddOne

ReplaceOne

DisposeOne

Do-Nothing

HouseholdVehicle

Ownership(time t)

Gasoline Hybrid Alter.Fuelled

...Class 1 Class n

...Dispose 1 Dispose n...Dispose 1 Dispose n

...Class 1 Class n ...Class 1 Class n

Gasoline Hybrid Alter.Fuelled

...Class 1 Class n ...Class 1 Class n ...Class 1 Class n

HouseholdVehicle

Ownership(time t+1)

Data Requirements

• Revealed (actual) Preferences:– Vehicle transactions and – Vehicle -Type Choices

• Stated (hypothetical) Choices:– Hypothetical Vehicle Transactions– Hypothetical Vehicle - Technology/Type

Choices

The CIBER-CARS SurveyChoice Internet Based Experiment for Research on CARs

Stage 1: Revealed PreferencesItem Description

Household location, type of building, number of members and vehicles, total household income, date household formed, date moved in the Hamilton area.

Person (s) gender, age, work and student status, licence, education level.

Vehicle (s) make, model, year of production, principal user of the vehicle, ownership, fuel type.

Future Vehicle Purchase Plans

vehicle class, money spent if purchased, annual usage rate (kilometres/year).

Stage 2: Stated Choices Experiment

Attribute Levels

Purchase Price

(1) -20%, (2) -10%, (3) Base, (4) +10% than the Base

Annual Fuel Cost (1) - 80%, (2) - 60%, (3) - 40% lower, (4) -20% than Base

Annual Maintenance Cost (1) - 50%, (2) -25 %, (3) Base, (4) +25% than Base

Fuel Availability (For AFVs only)

(1) 75%, (2) 50%, (3) 25% (4) 10% of existing stations

Acceleration (1) 6sec, (2) 9 sec, (3) 12, (4) 15 sec

Incentives (For Hybrid Electric and AFVs only)

(1) None, (2) Carpool Lanes, (3) No Parking or Metered Fees, (4) No Purchase Taxes

Pollution Levels (For Hybrid Electric and AFVs only)

(1) 10%, (2) 25%, (3) 50%, (4) 75% of present day average car

Stage 2: Experimental Design [2]

• Experimental Design:– 413 Orthogonal Main Effects Matrix in 64

Scenarios.– 213 Endpoint and Main Effects and Interactions

- within the alternative options - Effects in 64 Scenarios.

– Total Design Matrix includes 128 Scenarios.

• Out of 128 Scenarios, respondents receive 8 scenarios– 4 are taken from the first 64 scenarios, and – 4 are taken from the second 64 scenarios.

A Stated Choices Exercise

Survey Implementation• Information about the survey was posted on the

local intranets of:– The City of Hamilton, and – The Hamilton Health Sciences (short time)

• An invitation e-mail was distributed to:– McMaster University Employees, Faculty and Staff

• Recipients of the e-mail were asked to forward the message to others living in the study area.

Sample Description

• Data collection:– March 21 – April 30, 2005

• 902 respondents participated from all municipalities of Hamilton CMA.– 530 stated that they would buy a vehicle in the

next 5 years (stage 2) -> 496 eligible responses.

– 496 * 8 exercises = 3968 observations

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

21-03 26-03 31-03 05-04 10-04 15-04 20-04 25-04 30-04

Completed E-mail Reminder

Response Activity

Spatial Distribution of the Sample

Descriptive Analysis of Vehicle Choices

Anticipated Outcomes and Next Steps

• Improve our understanding on how urban households make vehicle-transactions and type-choice decisions.

• Estimation of discrete choice models will contribute to the development of a decision making modelling system accounting for both conventional and alternative vehicle technologies.

• Simulation results will characterize the role of alternative fuelled vehicles in improving urban air quality.