deere & company investor relations current tractor facility in pune ... from india for past 7...
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John Deere Committed to Those Linked to the Land
Deere & Company December 2011 / January 2012
|
Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures
This presentation includes forward-looking comments subject to important risks and uncertainties. It may also contain financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).
Refer to Deere’s reports filed on Forms 8-K (current), 10-Q (quarterly), and 10-K (annual) for information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from information in this presentation and for information reconciling financial measures to GAAP.
Guidance noted in the following slides was effective as of the company’s most recent earnings release and conference call (23 November 2011). Nothing in this presentation should be construed as reaffirming or disaffirming such guidance.
This presentation is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy any of Deere’s securities.
2 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Table of Contents
Slide #
John Deere Strategy 4
Feet on the Ground 5
Eyes on the Horizon 9
John Deere Strategy Detail 19
Macroeconomic Tailwinds 36
Foundational Success Factors 44
Global Markets and Opportunities 56
John Deere Financial Services 77
John Deere Power Systems 82
Farm Fundamentals 85
Market and Currency Volatility 94
Appendix 97
3 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
| 4 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
Feet on the Ground
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Feet on the Ground Fiscal Year 2011 Results – Equipment Operations
Exceptional results • Record net sales … ~ $29.5 billion
• Record net income … $2.8 billion
• 13% operating profit margin
• Cash flows from operations … $3.0 billion
6 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Investments in the business and capital returned to shareholders • New factories … six announced
• New products … largest introductions ever in Europe and the U.S.
• Capex and R&D … ~ $2.3 billion
• Operating cash flow returned to shareholders … ~ 70% • Quarterly dividend … increased twice to $.41 per share (+37%)
• Share repurchase … ~ 20.8 million shares
Feet on the Ground Fiscal Year 2011 Results – Equipment Operations
7 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Feet on the Ground Fiscal Year 2012 Outlook – Equipment Operations
Strong company outlook • Net sales up ~ 15% vs. FY 2011
• Net income … ~ $3.2 billion
• Strong operating profit margins
• Cash flows from operations … ~ $3.6 billion
Investing in the business and returning capital to shareholders • Capex $1.2 to $1.3 billion
• R&D up ~ 10%
• Maintain dividend targets and share repurchase objectives
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
8 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
Eyes on the Horizon
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• November 2011 – Awards received at Agritechnica 2011
• 7280R – “Tractor of the Year 2012”
• 6R tractor – “Machine of the Year”
• Five silver medals
• June 2011 – Largest new product introduction for Region 2*
• Over 100 new products
• 80% of large tractor and combine models new or updated
• Focus on Dealer of Tomorrow strategy
• May 2011 – John Deere and Kuhn Group sign strategic cooperation
• Provides large square balers into Region 2* in 2012
Eyes on the Horizon EU 27 – Recent Announcements
* Region 2: EU 27, CIS (including Russia), Mediterranean countries in Africa, and the Near and Middle East
10 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Eyes on the Horizon Brazil – Recent Announcements
• October 2011 – Two new factories in São Paulo to manufacture construction equipment
• Solely-owned Deere factory
• Backhoe and four-wheel-drive loaders
• Partner with Hitachi in second factory
• Excavators
• Expect production to begin in 2013
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
1 Carta da Anfavea, November 2011
• Agriculture portfolio and dealer expansion
• 50 new or updated products
• Dealer locations roughly doubled since 2007
• Achieved 4 points of tractor market share in FY 20111
11 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Eyes on the Horizon CIS – Recent Announcements
• November 2011 – Orenburg, Russia • Move existing operations to a new, larger facility
• Increase available manufacturing space by ~ 600 percent
• Expand product offering from four to fifteen models
• March 2011 – Domodedovo, Russia • Double manufacturing space at the factory
• Expand capacity for existing products
• Enable addition of new products such as log forwarders and front-end equipment
12 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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• January 2011 – New tractor factory in Dewas and expand current tractor facility in Pune
• ~ $100 million investment
• Expect production in Dewas to begin in 2013
• October 2010 – Ashok Leyland John Deere Construction Equipment Company inauguration
• Backhoes
• Four-wheel-drive loaders
• Production commenced in 2011
• September 2010 – New combine factory in Sirhind
• Expect production to begin in 2012
• John Deere has been the largest exporter of tractors from India for past 7 years
Eyes on the Horizon India – Recent Announcements
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
13 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Eyes on the Horizon China – Recent Announcements
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
Construction Equipment (New)
Engines (New)
Product Test (PV&V)
Office (New)
Tianjin Economic and Development Area (TEDA) Site
Drivetrain
• May 2011 – New engine facility in Tianjin
• ~ $60 million investment
• Expect production to begin in 2013
• May 2011 – New factory in Harbin
• ~ $80 million initial outlay
• Mid- and large-sized tractors
• Harvesting front-end equipment
• Planters and sprayers
• Irrigation products
• Expect production to begin in 2013
• December 2010 – New construction equipment factory in Tianjin
• ~ $50 million investment
• Expect production to begin in 2013
14 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Eyes on the Horizon U.S. and Canada – Recent Announcements
• August 2011 – Largest, most significant product introduction in the company’s history
• May 2011 – 8335R tractor differentiating through technology
• Single fluid, EGR iT4 engine design validated
• Better fuel efficiency than 8430 and 8320R
• First row-crop tractor to break through 300 PTO hp barrier
• Factory installed JDLinkTM to help increase customer profitability
John Deere 8335R: Nebraska OECD Tractor Test 1990—Summary 758 John Deere 8320R: Nebraska OECD Tractor Test 1963—Summary 660 John Deere 8430: Nebraska OECD Tractor Test 1873—Summary 527 PTO – Power Take-Off
15 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Integrated wireless technology linking the equipment, owners, operators, dealers, and agricultural consultants to provide more productivity to a farm or business. ● Machine Optimization
● Solutions that get the most out of machinery ● Use of precision technology and wireless data networks ● Higher levels of productivity and increased uptime
● Logistics Optimization ● Manage logistics and machinery from remote locations ● Fleet management solutions ● Increased machine-to-machine communication
● Ag Decision Support ● User-friendly monitors, sensors, wireless networks ● Easy access to machinery and agronomic data ● Enable proactive management decisions
Eyes on the Horizon John Deere FarmSightTM
16 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Eyes on the Horizon Financial Services
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
New locations announced: ● China … began operations 4Q 2011 ● Russia … operations expected to begin 1H 2012
● Chile … operations expected to begin 1H 2012
● India … operations expected to begin 2H 2012
● Thailand … operations expected to begin 2H 2012
Supporting the Global Growth of Our Equipment Operations
17 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Recent announcements: ● November 2011 – Bruchsal, Germany
● Inauguration of new deconsolidation & packaging facility within European Parts Distribution Center
● September 2011 – Rosario, Argentina
● Construction of new, larger parts facility
Eyes on the Horizon Worldwide Parts Services
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
Supporting the Global Growth of Our Equipment Operations
3 largest Parts Distribution Centers Other Parts Distribution locations
18 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
John Deere Strategy Detail
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The John Deere Strategy – In Summary
Accelerated emphasis on global growth –$50 billion mid-cycle sales by 2018 –Approximately 50% outside of U.S. & Canada –Capitalize on increased global demand for food, shelter and infrastructure
Focus on improved profitability –12% mid-cycle margin by 2014
Continued adherence to OROA/SVA model –30% OROA at mid-cycle sales (12% at trough) with improved asset turns
Focus on two growth platforms –Global pre-eminence in agricultural-equipment solutions –Global construction-equipment operations (with presence in China) –Complementary/supporting businesses to help drive performance of global growth platforms
Revised metrics reflect strategic direction –“Performance” metrics align compensation to strategy –“Health” metrics introduced to monitor underlying factors (e.g., market share, quality) to ensure performance is sustainable
20 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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The John Deere Strategy Our Purpose: Committed to those linked to the land
No longer “business as usual” – Global macro-trends present significant
opportunities for John Deere – Global population and income growth
– Global infrastructure needs
– New customer segments
– Technology advances
21 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Our Aspirations Realizing Sustainable SVA Growth Through Global Expansion
Sustainable SVA Growth
–Distinctively serve our customers, employees and investors
–Extend and enhance our financial and operating achievements of recent years
22 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Our Aspirations Realizing Sustainable SVA Growth Through Global Expansion
Global Expansion
–Attract more customers to the John Deere Experience across our six key geographies (U.S. & Canada, EU 27, Brazil, CIS/Russia, India, China) in a manner that meets local needs while leveraging our global scale
2010 Normal Volume ~ $25 billion
2018 Normal Volume ~ $50 billion
U.S. - Canada BRIC Rest of World
23 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Global Growth Businesses
–Invest in global expansion for profitable growth by capitalizing on macro-trends
Agricultural Equipment Solutions Construction Equipment Solutions
Integrated Enterprise Leveraging Our Strengths and Unique Capabilities
24 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Complementary Businesses
–Defend and grow share, enhance SVA, strengthen the channel of the Global Growth Businesses
Integrated Enterprise Leveraging Our Strengths and Unique Capabilities
Turf Equipment Solutions Forestry Equipment Solutions
25 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Supporting Businesses
–Strengthen and further differentiate our Global Growth and Complementary Businesses
John Deere Financial Services
John Deere Power Systems
Worldwide Parts Services
Intelligent Solutions Group
Integrated Enterprise Leveraging Our Strengths and Unique Capabilities
26 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Critical Success Factors Developing the Capabilities Essential to Reaching Our Goals
Needed to serve a diverse set of global customers more effectively
Deep Customer Understanding (DCU) – Understanding our customers’ most important local
needs
Deliver Customer Value (DCV) – Profitably translating our customers’ needs into
products and services at prices our customers are willing to pay
World-Class Distribution System – Developing world-class channels of dealers, aligned
with John Deere and achieving market preeminence
Grow Extraordinary Talent – Extraordinary leaders and engaged employees
delivering aligned high-performance teamwork globally
27 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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*Excludes fiscal 2009 expenses related to goodwill impairment and voluntary employee-separation, for reconciliation to GAAP see “2009 OROA Reconciliation to GAAP” slide in Appendix.
Foundational Success Factors Building on Our Core Strengths
Exceptional Operating Performance - Equipment Operations
− 29.8% OROA in 2011, a record high for the company
12%
20%
28%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009
2009, adjusted*
2010
2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
% of Normal Volume
80% Low
100% Normal
120% High
12% OROA (SVA Neutral)
28 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Exceptional Operating Performance - Equipment Operations
− SVA Model: Higher Net Cash Flow, More Consistently
Foundational Success Factors Building on Our Core Strengths
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$ M
illio
ns
Sale of Trade Receivables to Credit
Adoption of SVA Model
Over $7 billion in Pension/OPEB contributions, 2001-2011
29 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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SVA (
$ m
illio
ns)
Note: For reconciliation of SVA to GAAP, please see “Equipment Ops SVA Reconciliation to GAAP” slide in Appendix
Foundational Success Factors Building on Our Core Strengths
Disciplined SVA Growth - Equipment Operations
− SVA Journey, 1991 - 2011
-1,600
-1,200
-800
-400
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
30 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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SVA (
$ m
illio
ns)
Note: For reconciliation of SVA to GAAP, please see “Equipment Ops SVA Reconciliation to GAAP” slide in Appendix
Foundational Success Factors Building on Our Core Strengths
Disciplined SVA Growth - Enterprise
− SVA Journey, 2002 - 2011
− SVA in 2011 was ~ $2.5 billion – a record high for the company
-800
-400
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
31 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Aligned High-Performance Teamwork
− Integral part of strategy, reinforced with compensation
− Global Performance Management reinforces alignment
− Base pay changes linked to achieving goals
STI: Short-Term Incentive – Bonus focuses on OROA/ROE − Covers most worldwide salaried employees − Applies one enterprise-wide bonus metric MTI: Mid-Term Incentive – Bonus driven by sustained SVA creation − About 8,200 management employees eligible LTI: Long-Term Incentive – Primarily stock options − Top 900 employees eligible − Minimum stock holding requirements for senior management (~ top 125)
Foundational Success Factors Building on Our Core Strengths
32 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Commitment to execute and monitor all initiatives critical to our success
Performance metrics
–Traditional financial measures based on what we are delivering today to our stakeholders
Measures Delivering Results Today While Building for the Future
Performance Measures Metric Target
Sales Net Sales Growth Target $50B* (2018, at mid-cycle)
Profitability Return on Sales (Operating Margin) 12% (2014, at mid-cycle)
Asset Efficiency Asset Turns 2.5x (2018, at mid-cycle)
*Implies a CAGR of ~ 9% (2010 – 2018) vs. historical CAGR of 7-8%
33 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Health Measures Metric Target
Exceptional Operating Performance Quality % JDQPS certification
Disciplined SVA Growth Sales/SVA Mix by Geography % Non- U.S. & Canada
Aligned High- Performance Teamwork Employee Engagement Employee Survey’s
Engagement Index
Measures Delivering Results Today While Building for the Future
Commitment to execute and monitor all initiatives critical to our success
Health metrics
–The qualities, attributes and actions being introduced to ensure the sustainability of our performance over time
34 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Since 1837, the company has delivered innovative products of superior quality built on a tradition of commitment and integrity
–How we do business is critical to our continued success
–Integrity
–Quality
–Commitment
–Innovation
John Deere Values Unwavering Adherence to Our Values
35 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
Macroeconomic Tailwinds Support John Deere’s Global Growth Businesses
|
Population and Income Growth
Most of population growth through 2050 in Asia and Africa • By 2050, world population will reach 9 billion, increasing from
6.3 billion today
• Aging population in North America, modest growth
• Shrinking and aging population in Europe
Large middle-class developing in China and India • 200 million households expected to join the middle class
Source: FAO, How to Feed the World 2050 and OECD Working Paper No. 285
37 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Challenges from Population and Income Growth
Feeding the world – agricultural output must double by 2050
• Gross output must increase @ 3.4% annually in next 10 years vs. 2.4% annual growth in past 10 years
• Natural resources under strain, especially water
Massive urbanization – migration from rural areas creates need for roads, power grids, water containment and distribution systems
• 2010 milestone: For first time, more than half the world population lives in cities
• 2050: More than 70 percent will live in cities
Source: FAO, How to Feed the World 2050
38 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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17%
24%
26%
34%
34%
36%
36%
39%
46%
49%
58%
58%
61%
71%
71%
Health and Social Services
Real Estate and Business Activities
Social and Personal Services
Hotels and Restaurants
Education
Public Administration and Defense, Compulsory Social Security
Financial Intermediation
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Construction
Transport, Storage and Telecommunication
Utilities
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture
Private Household Services
88
289
321
331
351
381
462
575
647
757
1,052
1,315
1,805
2,301
Private Household Services
Hotels and Restaurants
Mining
Utilities
Social and Personal Services
Agriculture
Education
Public Administration and Defense, Compulsory Social Security
Health and Social Services
Construction
Financial Intermediation
Transport, Storage and Telecommunication
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Real Estate and Business Activities
Manufacturing
Sector
Agriculture and Construction amongst the Top 10 industry sectors in the G-20 countries . . .
Absolute increase in real value added 2009-18, $ Billions
CAGR 2009-18 Percent
3.1
2.3
5.3
2.9
5.2
4.0
4.1
3.0
3.2
3.4
2.9
2.7
4.8
3.8
3.8
. . . Significant growth in Agriculture and Construction between 2009-2018 will happen in the BRIC countries
Share of growth from BRIC1 Sector
Note: G20 countries account for 73% and 89% of agriculture and construction segments respectively.
Total global growth for agriculture is $520B and construction is $854B
1Brazil, Russia, India, China
Source: Global Insight World Industry Service Real value-added 2005 USD
Strong Global Tailwinds in Ag & Construction Significant Growth from Developing Economies
3,625
39 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Developing Economies Growing Faster
While developed economies have always accounted for a larger share of GDP . . .
10.022.9
34.6
1.3
12.0
28.1
1990
5.2
11.3
1970
46.6
3.8
2008
Real GDP1
$ Trillions
6.1
CAGR, 1970-2008 Percent
3.3
34.6 43.062.0
12.0
3.0
2039 2020 2008
65.5
115.3
53.3
22.5 46.6
Real GDP1
$ Trillions
4.9
CAGR, 2008-2039 Percent
... their growth will slow significantly, relative to that of developing economies
1 Real GDP (expenditure method) base year 2005
Developed countries include OECD. Developing countries include all developing markets (Regions as defined by Global Insight)
1.9x 2.6x
1.9
Developing Developed
Source: Global Insight World Market Monitor
40 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Dynamics of Food Demand
Source: World Bank 2008
>$10 per day
27% of world’s population (Most hunger problems solved at
$2.50 threshold)
Services
Processed Products
Livestock Products
Commodities
Per Capita Income
20% of world’s population (2/3rds experience hunger &
malnutrition)
$2.50-10 per day
$1.25-2.50 per day
<$1.25 per day
41 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Global Construction and Infrastructure Needs
2,266
2,356
1,888
6,509
2008
2,998
3,555
3,361
9,915
2020
3.6%
Infrastructure is expected to be the fastest growing segment of construction
Estimated gross spending as a percent of 2008 global GDP
2.4
3.5
4.9
Residential Non-residential Infrastructure
CAGR 2008-2020 Percent
WW Construction spending Gross output, $ 2008 Billions
Construction 12%
Mining & Quarrying 7% Ag, Hunting,
Forestry & Fishing 7%
All Other 74%
*Note: Construction and Mines & Quarries account for ~5% and ~4% of 2008 value-added WW GDP, respectively Source: IHS Global Insight, March 2009; Off Highway Research; AEM; CCMA; Yengst; Deere analysis
42 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Infrastructure
Non-residential
Residential
All Construction
Construction spending 2020 absolute, Top 10 (Billions of 2009 $s)
2,049
1,508
751
592
432
365
302
299
267
257
China
U.S. & Canada
India
Japan
U.K.
France
Germany
Brazil
Russia
Italy
China + U.S. & Canada 36% of 2020 absolute, compared to 30% today China + U.S. & Canada + Brazil, Russia, India 50% of 2020 absolute, compared to 40% today
Construction spending 2010-2020 change, Top 10 (Billions of 2009 $s)
1,128
534
437
168
106
103
95
92
60
57
China
U.S. & Canada
India
Brazil
Russia
U.K.
Japan
Indonesia
Mexico
Korea
Infrastructure
Non-residential
Residential
All Construction
Global Construction Spending in 2020 Concentrated in a Small Number of Markets
Source: IHS Global Insight, Deere Analysis, August 2011
43 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
Foundational Success Factors Building on Core Strengths That Have Guided Our Success
|
Asset Management Dramatic Reduction in Asset Intensity
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Prior Year
Current Year
Trade Receivables and Net Sales
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Trade Receivables Net Sales
$ M
illio
ns
1997 2011
• Avoided ~ $5.5 billion in working capital in 2011 vs. 1997
• Receivable level in 2011 consistent with 1997, with almost 3x the sales
Quarterly Receivables & Inventory as a % of Previous 12 Months Sales
45 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Productivity Improvement ~ 6% CAGR over 30 Years
• Deere’s net sales and revenues per employee have increased at a CAGR of ~ 6% over last 30 years
Net Sales and Revenues per Employee
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
$ T
hou
sands
46 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Manufacturing Efficiencies – Waterloo, IA Journey to a 6-Day Drive Train
Product
ion D
ays
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Prior to 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008
Relocation of 412 machines Eliminated 155 machines
Total evacuation of multi-story buildings New heat treat fully operational Set-up improvement On-site forging storage Insourcing of core processes
Machining departments based on part families Arranged machines using cellular concepts Started evacuation of multi-story buildings
Run size optimization and set-up improvement
Daily run size parameters Outsourcing non-core
processes
-12 Days
-2 Days
-10 Days
-14 Days
47 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Investment in New Products and Technologies
R&D as Percent of Net Sales
Source: Deere & Company and competitor SEC filings
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Deere R&D $ Deere % Competitor A % Competitor B % Competitor C %
48 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Net Sales by Product Category Equipment Operations - Fiscal Year 2011
Agriculture & Turf Construction & Forestry
Construction
Forestry
CWP Other
Large Ag
Small Ag
Turf
Other
49 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Committed Bank Group Supports Credit Facility
• Average length of continuous relationship = ~29 Years
• $5.00 billion credit facility supporting commercial paper – $2.75 billion 49-month facility expiring in 2015 – $1.50 billion 37-month facility expiring in 2013 – $750 million 364-day facility expiring in 2012 – Have not drawn on facility – $3.7 billion incremental capacity as of 31 October 2011
Credit Facility Size & Commercial Paper Outstanding
$ M
illio
ns
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Facility CP Outstanding as of October 31
50 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Deere Use-of-Cash Priorities
Manage the balance sheet, including liquidity, to support a rating that provides access to low-cost and readily available short- and long-term funding mechanisms
Reflects the strategic nature of our financial services operation
Committed to “A” Rating
Cash from Operations
Fund Operating and Growth Needs
Common Stock Dividend
Share Repurchase
Fund value-creating investments in our businesses
Consistently and moderately raise dividend targeting a 25%-35% payout ratio of mid-cycle earnings
Consider share repurchase as a means to deploy excess cash to shareholders, once above requirements are met and repurchase is viewed as value-enhancing
51 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Worldwide Financial Services 2012 Unsecured Term Debt Maturities*
* Maturities as of 31 October 2011
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
FY 2012 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
$ M
illio
ns
USD CAD
1Q
52 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Share Repurchase As Part of Publicly Announced Plans
Actual Shares
Repurchased* (in millions)
Total Amount** (in billions)
2004 5.9 $0.2
2005 27.7 $0.9
2006 34.0 $1.3
2007 25.7 $1.5
2008 21.2 $1.7
2009 0.0 $0.0
2010 5.2 $0.4
2011 20.8 $1.7
Cumulative cost of repurchases 2004-2011: ~ $7.6 billion Amount remaining on May 2008 authorization of $5 billion: ~ $4.1 billion 31 October 2011 period ended shares (basic): ~ 406.1 million (diluted): ~ 409.9 million Shares repurchased 2004-2011: ~ 140.5 million Average repurchase price 2004-2011: $54.04
* All shares adjusted for two-for-one stock split effective 26 November 2007 ** Rounded totals for each period – sum may not tie to cumulative cost of repurchases 2004-2011
53 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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$0.11
$0.14 $0.16
$0.20 $0.22
$0.25
$0.28 $0.30
$0.35
$0.41
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$0.45
'03 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
'04 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
'05 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
'06 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
'07 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
'08 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
'09 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
'10 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
'11 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Deere Quarterly Dividends Declared* Q1 2003 – Q4 2011
* Adjusted for 2 for 1 stock split on 26 November 2007
54 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
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Sources and Uses of Cash Fiscal 2004 - 2011 Equipment Operations
(1) Other includes proceeds from maturities and sales of marketable securities and purchases of marketable securities and reconciliation for non-cash items including excess tax benefits from share-based compensation and the effect of exchange rates on cash and cash equivalents
Source: Deere & Company SEC filings
$4,287
$16,378
$5,214
$748
$638
$2,411
$3,270
$6,194
$278
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
$15,000
$18,000
$21,000
Beginning Cash & Cash Equivalents (10/31/03)
Cash From Operations
Capital Expenditures
Investment in Financial Services
Divestitures, net of
Acquisitions
Net Change in Debt and
Intercompany Balances
Dividends Share Repurchase,
net of Common
Stock Issuances
Other Ending Cash & Cash
Equivalents (10/31/11)
~58% of cash from operations returned to shareholders
(1)
$ M
illio
ns
$3,188
55 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
Global Markets and Opportunities
|
Growing Global Presence
• FY 2011 equipment net sales outside U.S. & Canada over 4x the level in FY 2000
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
• FY 2011 equipment net sales outside U.S. & Canada over 4x the level in FY 2000
$ M
illio
ns
Net Sales Outside U.S. and Canada
Net Sales Outside U.S. & Canada % of Total Net Sales
57 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Net Sales by Major Markets Fiscal Years 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008
(in millions of dollars) 2011 2010 %
Change 2009 2008
United States 15,029 13,026 +15% 11,568 13,166
Canada 2,329 1,767 +32% 1,454 1,902
Western Europe 4,382 3,360 +30% 3,427 4,610
Central Europe & CIS 1,407 746 +89% 749 1,874
Central & South America 3,612 2,623 +38% 1,787 2,577
Asia, Africa & Middle East 1,930 1,431 +35% 1,166 1,062
Asia Pacific, Australia & New Zealand 777 620 +25% 605 612
Total 29,466 23,573 +25% 20,756 25,803
58 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
EU 27 Factory Locations
Joensuu, Finland • Wheel Forwarders • Wheel Harvesters • Forestry Attachments
Bruchsal, Germany • Tractor & Combine Cabs
Mannheim, Germany • Tractors
Zweibrücken, Germany • Combine & Forage Harvesters • Material Handling Equipment
Arc-les-Gray, France • Forage Equipment • Balers • Material Handling Equipment
Saran, France • Engines
Madrid, Spain • Components
Horst, The Netherlands • Spraying Equipment
Stadtlohn, Germany • Forage Harvesters • Headers
Gummersbach, Germany • Walk-Behind Mowers
59 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
EU 27 Economic Data
PPP: Purchasing Power Parity Source: FAO, Global Insight, The World Factbook
1.8%
25.0%
73.2%
GDP Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: The World Factbook, 2010 est.
5.6%
27.7%
66.7%
Labor Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: The World Factbook, 2007 est.
Production Net Exports
Total Grains 16% 7% Wheat 21% 13% Beef Meat 14% 23% Pork Meat 22% 28% Cow Milk 27% 25%
Source: USDA, 2010
• General (2010) • Population ~ 516 million
• GDP (PPP) ~ $13.77 trillion
• Top four economies based on GDP:
• Germany, UK, France, Italy
• Agricultural (2009) • Utilized agricultural area ~ 192 million hectares
• Arable land ~ 111 million hectares
• Approximately 70 million hectares of permanent crop or grassland
• Share of the world market:
60 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
EU 27 Economic Update
• Farm income projected stable in 2012 at high 2011 levels • Grain, beef, and milk prices remain at attractive levels
• Pork prices increasing
• Demand for agricultural machinery expected to be stable • Low levels of used equipment
• Sovereign debt and fiscal issues create potential downside economic risk and consumer caution
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
61 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EUR
bn
(nom
inal
pric
es)
Pillar I (Direct Payments + Market Expenditures) Pillar II (Rural Development)
2007-2013 2014-2020
EU 27 Government Support of Agriculture
• Common Agricultural Policy proposed budget 2014-2020 frozen at 2007-2013 nominal levels • Rules generally known, eliminating uncertainty
• Redistribution of direct payments in favor of new member states
Source: EU Commission, Agra Europe
62 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Brazil Factory Locations
São Paulo, Brazil (JV) • Sugarcane Equipment
Catalão, Brazil • Sugarcane Harvesters • Sprayers (planned)
Montenegro, Brazil • Tractors
Horizontina, Brazil • Combine Harvesters • Planters
Indaiatuba, Brazil (under construction)
• Backhoe Loaders • 4WD Loaders
Indaiatuba, Brazil (JV) (under construction)
• Excavators
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
63 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Brazil Economic Data
• General (2010) • Population ~ 193 million
• GDP (PPP) ~ $2.172 trillion
• Top four cities based on population:
• São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador and Brasília
• Agricultural • Brazil converted ~ 13 million hectares from pasture land into
crop land in the last 10 years
• Soybean, Corn, Sorghum, Cotton , and Sugarcane
• Deere projects ~20 million hectares will be brought into production in the next decade
• Soybeans and corn
• Deere projects ~5% CAGR in industry equipment sales over the next decade
5.8%
26.8%
67.4%
GDP Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), 2010
18%
24% 58%
Labor Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: Brazilian Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), 2008
PPP: Purchasing Power Parity Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), The World Fact Book Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
64 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Brazil (in billions of U.S. dollars) 2010
Previous 2010
2011 Forecast
Previous 2011
2012 Forecast
Previous 2012
Soybeans 4.5 4.5 13.8 5.2 8.4 5.4
Sugarcane 9.1 10.3 10.4 11.3 9.8 12.0
Other* 0.7 0.6 4.2 3.7 (1.0) 3.6
Total 14.3 15.4 28.4 20.2 17.2 21.0
Argentina (in billions of U.S. dollars) 2010
Previous 2010
2011 Forecast
Previous 2011
2012 Forecast
Previous 2012
Total 6.1 6.1 9.3 8.0 6.4 8.4
* Includes corn, paddy rice, and cotton
Brazil and Argentina Farm Net Income
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011 (Previous Forecast as of 17 August 2011)
65 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
• R$123 billion approved for 2011/2012 Agriculture and Livestock Plan • R$107 billion targeted towards Agribusiness (large-scale operations)
• 7% higher than 2010/2011
• R$16 billion targeted towards family agriculture (small-scale operations)
• Government programs to support equipment purchases
Brazil Government Support of Agriculture
Tractor
Programs 1
Engine
hp Where
Interest
Rate
Grace
Period (Max) Term Maturity
Mais Alimentos
Pró-Trator
Trator Solidário
50-78
50-120
50-80
Brazil
SP
PR
2%
0%
5.5%
3 Years
2
2
10
5
5
Perennial
Dec11
Dec14
Finame PSI
Moderfrota
All
All
Brazil
Brazil
6.5% to 8.7%2
7.5%/9.5%3
2
1.5
10
2-84
Dec12
Jun12
1 Exclusively Finame qualified products. Minimum of 60% local content (weight and value). 2 6.5% if annual gross revenue < R$90 million, 8.7% other farmers
3 7.5% if annual gross revenue < R$500 thousand and 80% of income from agriculture related activities. 9.5% all other farmers 4Depending if used or new equipment
Combine
Programs 1 Class Where
Interest
Rate
Grace
Period (Max) Term Maturity
Mais Alimentos IV Brazil 2% 3 Years 10 Perennial
Finame PSI
Moderfrota
All
All
Brazil
Brazil
6.5% to 8.7%2
7.5%/9.5%3
2
1.5
Up to 10
2-84
Dec12
Jun12
66 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
CIS Factory Locations
Orenburg, Russia • Seeding Equipment • Tillage Equipment (planned) • Spraying Equipment (planned)
Domodedovo, Russia • Tractors • Combine Harvesters • Log Forwarders (planned) • Combine Front-End Equipment (planned)
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
67 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
CIS Economic Data
• General (2010) • Population ~ 279 million
• GDP (PPP) ~ $2.81 trillion
• Top four economies based on GDP:
• Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus
• Agricultural (2009) • Utilized agricultural area ~ 560 million hectares
• Arable land ~ 196 million hectares
• Deere estimates “western-style” equipment used <25% of farmed hectares
• Share of the world market:
PPP: Purchasing Power Parity Source: FAO, Global Insight, The World Factbook Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
4.0%
36.8%
59.2%
GDP Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: The World Factbook, 2010 est.
10.0%
31.9% 58.1%
Labor Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: The World Factbook, 2007 est.
Production Net Exports
Total Grains 8% 7% Wheat 13% 7% Barley 17% 23% Rapeseed 4% 14% Sunflower 43% 17%
Source: USDA, 2010
(Russia)
(Russia)
68 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
CIS Government Support of Agriculture
• Export barriers lifted • Russian grain export ban ended in July
• Ukraine’s wheat and corn export duty ended in October
• Annual Ag support in the Russian National Ag Program for 2013 - 2020 expected to more than double by 2020 in nominal terms
• Ag modernization support, including machinery investments, expected to be $4.2 billion over 8 year period
• Loan interest rate subsidies may decline in favor of direct payments
69 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
India Factory Locations
Gummidipoondi, India (JV) • Side-Shift Backhoes • 4WD Loaders
Pune, India • Engines • Transmissions • Tractors
Sirhind, India (under construction)
• Combine Harvesters
Dewas, India (under construction) • Tractors
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
70 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
India Economic Data
• General • Population ~ 1.189 billion (July 2011 est.)
• GDP (PPP) ~ $1.538 trillion (2010 est.)
• Top four cities based on population (2011 est.):
• Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Hyderabad
• Agricultural • Total land area ~ 2.9 million sq km
• Arable land ~ 1.5 million sq km (2005 est.) • Annual industry tractor sales >500,000 units
• Strong momentum with good production and high commodity prices
• Increased credit availability in the agricultural sector
• Infrastructure investment projected to be ~ 9% of GDP by 2012 (~5% in 2007)
18.9%
18.2% 62.8%
GDP Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: IHS Global Insight, 2010 est.
52.0%
14.0%
34.0%
Labor Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: The World Factbook, 2009 est.
PPP: Purchasing Power Parity Source: The World Fact Book, Censusindia, Tractor Manufacturers Association of India
71 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
| Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012 72
India Government Support of Agriculture
159
185
262
325
766
530
550
500
258
231
240
313
438
560
606
606
123
143
170
195
237
180
194
197
207
275
36
56
48
151
332
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010F
2011F
Rupees (in billions)
Fertilizer Subsidy
Food Subsidy (for households)
Irrigation Subsidy
Electricity Subsidy
Other Subsidies (mainly for seeds)
Source: India Ministry of Agriculture (2004-2009), India Ministry of Finance (2010-2011)
756
809
917
1,191
2,048
1,090
1,156
1,106
|
China Factory Locations
Xuzhou, China (JV) • Excavators
Ningbo, China • Tractors • Combine Harvesters
Tianjin, China (JV) • Tractors
Tianjin (TEDA), China • Transmissions
Jiamusi, Brazil • Combine Harvesters • Corn Pickers
Harbin, China (under construction)
• Combine Front-End Equipment • Tractors • Planters • Sprayers • Irrigation Products
Tianjin (TEDA), China (under construction)
• 4WD Loaders • Excavators
Tianjin (TEDA), China (under construction)
• Engines
Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
73 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
China Economic Data
• General • Population ~ 1.337 billion (July 2011 est.)
• GDP (PPP) ~ $10.09 trillion (2010 est.)
• Top four cities based on population (2009):
• Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing and Shenzhen
• Agricultural • Total land area ~ 9.6 million sq km
• Arable land ~ 1.4 million sq km (2005 est.)
• Share of the world market:
10.2%
46.8%
43.0%
GDP Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: The World Factbook, 2010 est.
38.1%
27.8%
34.1%
Labor Composition
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: The World Factbook, 2008 est.
PPP: Purchasing Power Parity Source: The World Factbook, USDA 2010
Production Net Exports
Total Grains 17% 0% Wheat 18% 7% Corn 21% 0% Rice 30% 0% Cotton 26% 0%
74 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Source: China Ministry of Agriculture
China Government Support of Agriculture
12
28
72
75
72
86
12
13
14
15
15
19
15
15
3
4
4
7
12
20
20
22
1
2
4
13
16
18
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011F
RMB (in billions)
Material Subsidy (basic subsidy for purchase of inputs) Grain Direct Subsidy (for growing encouraged crops) Seed Subsidy (for purchasing high-performing seed) Equipment Subsidy (for purchasing encouraged equipment)
141
15
17
31
52
103
127
123
75 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
John Deere Water
Leveraging our leadership in global agriculture to provide innovative and efficient agricultural water management solutions, and increase agricultural productivity ● Innovative solutions
● Efficient irrigation and water management ● Superior channel partners
● Integration of machinery and technology ● Consistent application of the right amount of
water at the right time ● Enable increased yields and higher quality
crops ● Improve water use efficiency and reduce input
costs
● Partnering with our customers ● Optimize operations and output ● Enable good stewardship of water resources
76 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
John Deere Financial Services
|
Portfolio Composition by Market
John Deere Financial Services $28.1 Billion Owned Portfolio at 31 October 2011
Portfolio Composition by Geography
Portfolio Composition by Product
Information above includes all Deere lending activities worldwide. John Deere Capital Corporation is the largest lending operation of Deere & Company.
Ag & Turf 87%
C&F 13%
U.S. 72%
Canada 12%
Europe 7%
Latin America 6%
Australia 3%
Revolving Credit9%
Leasing12%
Installment Financing
58%
Wholesale / Floorplan
21%
78 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
John Deere Capital Corporation Profitability and Growth
271 275 291 311
282
149
319 364
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Net Income ($ Millions)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.28% 0.16% 0.22% 0.29% 0.33%
0.70%
0.48%
0.12%
Write-offs/Average Owned Portfolio
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
16.4 17.7 18.6 19.0 19.1 19.3
21.1 23.3
Administered Portfolio Growth ($ Billions)
79 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
John Deere Capital Corporation Retail Notes 60+ Days Past Due vs. Write-offs
Agriculture & Turf1
• Extremely low write-offs; average less than 5 bps over last 10 years
• Even in severe Ag market of the 1980s, losses were comparatively low
Construction & Forestry • The performance and quality
of portfolio improved during 2011
-0.05%
0.45%
0.95%
1.45%
1.95%
2.45%
2.95%
3.45%
3.95%
'83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 Net Write-offs (Ag) Installments 60+DPD (Ag)
-0.05%
0.45%
0.95%
1.45%
1.95%
2.45%
2.95%
3.45%
3.95%
'95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10
Net Write-offs (C&F) Installments 60+DPD (C&F)
(1) 1982 – 1985 includes Construction; 1986 - 1994 includes Lawn & Grounds Care; beginning in 2009 includes both Ag and Turf equipment; As % of Owned Losses After Dealer Reserve Charges
Source: 1982 – 1994 internal reporting, 1995 - 2010 JDCC 10-K filings, 2011 Deere & Company 8-K filed with SEC 23 November 2011
80 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
Res
ale
Val
ue
as a
% o
f O
rigin
al L
ist
Pric
e
Time Since Origination
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
U.S. Resale Value vs. Loan Balance 7830 Tractor and 9670 Combine
(1) Model 7810 was replaced with Model 7820 in 2004. In 2007 the 7830 series was introduced to the market. Loan balance assumes a 30% down payment on the highest list price financed for 5 years with annual payments at a rate of 6.50%.
(2) Model 9650 was replaced with Model 9660 in 2004. Model 9660 was subsequently replaced with Model 9670 in 2006. Loan balance assumes a 30% down payment on the highest list price financed for 5 years with annual payments at a rate of 6.50%.
Source for equipment values: North American Equipment Dealers Association
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
Res
ale
Val
ue
as a
% o
f O
rigin
al L
ist
Pric
e
Time Since Origination
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
Loan Balance
Model Year
7830 Tractor (1)
Model Year
9670 Combine (2)
Loan Balance
81 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
John Deere Power Systems Engine Emissions and Technology
|
Interim Tier 4 (IT4): • 50% Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) reduction • 90% Particulate Matter (PM) reduction • 100 hp emission break removed
Final Tier 4 (FT4): • 80% NOx reduction • 175 hp emission break removed
Same regulations from 75-750 hp
Tier 4 Engine Implementation
Final Tier 4
0
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Interim Tier 4
NOx, g/kw-hr
PM
, g
/kw
-hr
83 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Interim Tier 4 Building on Proven Technology & Fuel Efficiency
Decision to use cooled exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) with diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC)/diesel particulate filter (DPF) driven by customer focus and needs analysis
• A simple solution – No additional fluids (Urea) – More operator friendly – Less complex to maintain
• A fuel efficient solution – optimal performance & fuel-choice flexibility – Tier 3/Stage IIIA cooled EGR John Deere 8320R rated the most fuel efficient tractor ever
reviewed at the Nebraska Test Lab – Operate efficiently with low-sulfur diesel and B5-B20 blends
• A field proven solution – Since 2005, John Deere cooled EGR engines have a proven record of reliability in on-the-farm
use • An integrated vehicle solution
– John Deere designs, manufactures and services the engine, drivetrain, hydraulics, cooling and electrical systems
– John Deere Precision Farming Technology delivers input and labor savings to increase yields • A fully supported solution
– John Deere dealers worldwide are highly trained to provide service and support as well as increase productivity / reliability / utilization of Deere machines
84 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
Farm Fundamentals
|
U.S. Farm Cash Receipts Operating Cash Receipts and Government Payments
• Total cash receipts remain at historically high levels
• Record levels expected for 2011
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F
$ B
illio
ns
Government Payments Total Cash Receipts
Source: 1998 – 2010: USDA 29 November 2011 2011F – 2012F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
86 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
U.S. Farm Balance Sheet Strong
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500 1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
$ B
illio
ns
Farm Debt Farm Equity Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Debt to Asset Ratio (%)
Source: 1970 – 2010: USDA 29 November 2011 2011F – 2012F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 23 November 2011
87 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and Cotton Prices Nearby Futures: 13 December 2006 – 13 December 2011
Source: Chicago Board of Trade – Corn, Soybeans & Wheat; Intercontinental Exchange – Cotton
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
12/13/06 12/13/07 12/13/08 12/13/09 12/13/10 12/13/11
Do
llars
Per
Bu
shel
Corn
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
12/13/06 12/13/07 12/13/08 12/13/09 12/13/10 12/13/11
Doll
ars
per
Bu
shel
Soybeans
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
12/13/06 12/13/07 12/13/08 12/13/09 12/13/10 12/13/11
Do
llars
per
Bu
shel
Wheat
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
12/13/06 12/13/07 12/13/08 12/13/09 12/13/10 12/13/11
Do
llars
per
Po
un
d
Cotton
88 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Agricultural Growth – Energy 2007 U.S. Energy Bill
• Significantly expanded mandatory levels of renewable fuels
Source: Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Gal
lons
(bill
ions)
Corn-Based Starch Ethanol Advanced Biofuels
89 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Uses of U.S. Corn Crop 2009-2020
32.0%
32.5%
33.0%
33.5%
34.0%
34.5%
35.0%
35.5%
36.0%
36.5%
37.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Feed & residual Ethanol for fuel Food, Seed, & Industrial (Less Ethanol) Exports Ethanol for Fuel as % of Total Corn Usage
Bush
els
(mill
ions)
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020, February 2011
90 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70% 1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011P
World Farm Fundamentals Global Stocks-To-Use Ratios
Corn
Wheat
Soybeans
Source: USDA - 9 December 2011
Cotton
91 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Agricultural Growth – Energy U.S. Ethanol
U.S. Corn Used In Ethanol
Source: Informa – November 2011
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10F 11/12F 13/14F 15/16F
Bush
els
(mill
ions)
92 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Daily Ethanol Margin Per Bushel Corn Grind Based on Nearby Futures Prices (Excl ITDA*)
*Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (ITDA) totals ~$0.50 and is often disregarded in margin calculations because it does not influence short term production decisions Source: Informa – December 2011
($0.50)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
12/6
/07
3/6
/08
6/6
/08
9/6
/08
12/6
/08
3/6
/09
6/6
/09
9/6
/09
12/6
/09
3/6
/10
6/6
/10
9/6
/10
12/6
/10
3/6
/11
6/6
/11
9/6
/11
12/6
/11
93 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
Market and Currency Volatility
|
Volatility / Uncertainty Metrics Updated as of 31 October 2011
0
100
200
300
400
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Sp
read
ove
r T
reas
uri
es (
bps
)
'A' Industrial Index 3-Year Spread
2005-2006 Avg.: 482007-Aug 08 Avg.: 113Sep 08-Dec 09 Avg.: 2092010 Avg.: 732011 YTD Avg.: 7131 Oct 11: 68
0
25
50
75
100
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Per
cen
tag
e P
oin
ts
VIX(Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index)
0
300
600
900
1,200
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Bas
is P
oin
ts
GECC 5 Yr CDS
0
125
250
375
500
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Sp
read
ove
r T
-Bil
l (b
ps)
TED Spread(Spread differential between 3M LIBOR and 3M T-Bill)
2005-2006 Avg.: 352007-Aug 08 Avg.: 95Sep 08-Dec 09 Avg.: 992010 Avg.: 212011 YTD Avg.: 2431 Oct 11: 42
2005-2006 Avg.: 132007-Aug 08 Avg.: 20Sep 08-Dec 09 Avg.: 372010 Avg.: 232011 YTD Avg.: 2331 Oct 11: 30
2005-2006 Avg.: 192007-Aug 08 Avg.: 65Sep 08-Dec 09 Avg.: 4112010 Avg.: 1782011 YTD Avg.: 16131 Oct 11: 239
95 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
Ind
exed
Valu
e
EUR
GBP
AUD
JPY
CAD
BRL
Wea
ker
FC
Str
onger
FC
Currency Movement Post Credit Crisis
FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011
96 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
Appendix
|
Enterprise SVA Reconciliation to GAAP
Equipment Operations 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Net Sales 11,077 11,703 13,349 17,673 19,401 19,884 21,489 25,803 20,756 23,573 29,466 Average Identifiable Assets
With Inventories at LIFO 8,743 6,229 5,965 6,482 7,248 7,546 8,092 9,652 9,647 9,196 11,516 With Inventories at Standard Cost 9,678 7,147 6,925 7,477 8,312 8,634 9,205 10,812 10,950 10,494 12,875
Operating Profit (46) 401 708 1,905 1,842 1,905 2,318 2,927 1,365 2,909 3,839 Percent of Net Sales -0.4% 3.4% 5.3% 10.8% 9.5% 9.6% 10.8% 11.3% 6.6% 12.3% 13.0%
Operating Return on AssetsWith Inventories at LIFO -0.5% 6.4% 11.9% 29.4% 25.4% 25.2% 28.6% 30.3% 14.1% 31.6% 33.3%With Inventories at Standard Cost -0.5% 5.6% 10.2% 25.5% 22.2% 22.1% 25.2% 27.1% 12.5% 27.7% 29.8%
SVA Cost of Assets (1,162) (858) (831) (897) (998) (1,036) (1,094) (1,284) (1,301) (1,259) (1,545) Equipment Operations SVA (1,208) (457) (123) 1,008 844 869 1,224 1,643 64 1,650 2,294
Financial ServicesNet Income 262 330 309 345 584 364 337 203 373 471Average Equity 2,115 2,177 2,265 2,227 2,466 2,524 2,355 2,732 3,064 3,194Return on Equity 12.40% 15.20% 13.60% 15.50% 23.70% 14.40% 14.30% 7.40% 12.20% 14.70%Operating Profit Continuing 416 504 466 491 521 553 493 242 499 725Change in Allowance for Doubtful Receivables 16 17 -8 -12 15 17 -4 68 -14 - SVA Income Continuing 432 521 458 479 536 570 489 310 485 725Average Equity Continuing Operations 2,115 2,177 2,163 2,110 2,424 2,524 2,355 2,732 3,064 3,194Average Allowance for Doubtful Receivables 161 160 165 150 148 167 183 195 232 - SVA Average Equity 2,276 2,337 2,328 2,260 2,572 2,691 2,538 2,927 3,296 3,194Cost of Equity -437 -431 -414 -410 -457 -480 -430 -458 -420 -492SVA Continuing Operations 44 69 79 90 59 -148 65 233SVA Discontinued Operations -11 25 - - - - - - Financial Services SVA (5) 90 44 69 79 90 59 (148) 65 233
Deere & Company - Enterprise SVA (462) (33) 1,052 913 948 1,314 1,702 (84) 1,715 2,527
(millions of dollars unless stated otherwise)
98 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
Equipment Ops SVA Reconciliation to GAAP
Equipment Operations 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Net Sales 5,848 5,723 6,479 7,663 8,830 9,640 11,082 11,926 9,701 11,169 11,077 Average Identifiable Assets
With Inventories at LIFO 5,585 5,765 5,449 5,551 6,187 6,502 6,682 7,672 7,724 8,069 8,743 With Inventories at Standard Cost 6,702 6,846 6,442 6,494 7,131 7,488 7,703 8,711 8,739 9,039 9,678
Operating Profit 16 77 242 847 1,006 1,125 1,402 1,476 272 693 (46) Percent of Net Sales 0.3% 1.3% 3.7% 11.1% 11.4% 11.7% 12.6% 12.4% 2.8% 6.2% -0.4%
Operating Return on AssetsWith Inventories at LIFO 0.3% 1.3% 4.4% 15.3% 16.3% 17.3% 21.0% 19.3% 3.5% 8.6% -0.5%With Inventories at Standard Cost 0.2% 1.1% 3.8% 13.0% 14.1% 15.0% 18.2% 16.9% 3.1% 7.7% -0.5%
SVA Cost of Assets (804) (821) (773) (780) (856) (898) (924) (1,045) (1,049) (1,085) (1,162) SVA (788) (744) (531) 67 150 227 477 431 (776) (392) (1,208)
Equipment Operations 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Net Sales 11,703 13,349 17,673 19,401 19,884 21,489 25,803 20,756 23,573 29,466 Average Identifiable Assets
With Inventories at LIFO 6,229 5,965 6,482 7,248 7,546 8,092 9,652 9,647 9,196 11,516 With Inventories at Standard Cost 7,147 6,925 7,477 8,312 8,634 9,205 10,812 10,950 10,494 12,875
Operating Profit 401 708 1,905 1,842 1,905 2,318 2,927 1,365 2,909 3,839 Percent of Net Sales 3.4% 5.3% 10.8% 9.5% 9.6% 10.8% 11.3% 6.6% 12.3% 13.0%
Operating Return on AssetsWith Inventories at LIFO 6.4% 11.9% 29.4% 25.4% 25.2% 28.6% 30.3% 14.1% 31.6% 33.3%With Inventories at Standard Cost 5.6% 10.2% 25.5% 22.2% 22.1% 25.2% 27.1% 12.5% 27.7% 29.8%
SVA Cost of Assets (858) (831) (897) (998) (1,036) (1,094) (1,284) (1,301) (1,259) (1,545) SVA (457) (123) 1,008 844 869 1,224 1,643 64 1,650 2,294
(millions of dollars unless stated otherwise)
99 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012
|
2009 OROA Reconciliation to GAAP Equipment Operations
Equipment Operations2009, as Reported
Exclude Goodwill Impairment &
Voluntary Employee-Separation
2009, as Adjusted
Net Sales 20,756 20,756 Average Identifiable Assets
With Inventories at LIFO 9,647 9,647 With Inventories at Standard Cost 10,950 10,950
Operating Profit 1,365 380 1,745 Percent of Net Sales 6.6% 8.4%
Operating Return on AssetsWith Inventories at LIFO 14.1% 18.1%With Inventories at Standard Cost 12.5% 15.9%
(millions of dollars unless stated otherwise)
100 Deere & Company | December 2011 / January 2012