david r. parker, chairman & ceo covenant transportation group parker presentation2... · 2018....
TRANSCRIPT
Los Angeles Transportation Club
David R. Parker, Chairman & CEOCovenant Transportation Group
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
This presentation and discussion includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation reform Act of 1995. Words such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “estimates,” or similar expressions are intended to identify these forward-looking statements. These statements are based on Covenant Transportation Group’s current plans and are not guarantees of future performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and the company’s plans and objectives to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties are discussed further in Covenant Transportation Group’s reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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Topics• Company Summary• U.S. Economy
• Consumers• Industrial
• Truckload Industry Trends• Supply/Demand• Capacity• Productivity Trends• Drivers• Industry Trends
• Summary• Questions
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• Group of companies focused on targeted markets offering just-in-time and other premium transportation and logistics services including team expedited long-haul, refrigerated, regional, event, brokerage, factoring, tractor/trailer sales, and equipment leasing services
• Group operates about 2,600 tractors and trailers
• Young average tractor age (3/31/14): 2.01 years (or 24.1mos)
• Utilize 8 full size terminals and 21 drop yards
• Focused on providing exceptional service to our customers
• Fiscal 2013 Revenue, including FSC: $685 Million
• Headquarters: Chattanooga, TN
• NASDAQ GS: CVTI
CTG Company Summary
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Who/What is CTGCTG is a holding company:
• 3 Specialized Asset-Based Trucking Companies• Expedited (Covenant Transport - Chattanooga)• Regional (Star Transportation – Nashville)• Refrigerated (SRT - Texarkana)
• 1 Non-Asset Based Brokerage• Covenant Transport Solutions (Chattanooga)
• 1 Equipment Leasing Company• Transport Enterprise Leasing (Chattanooga)
• 1 Accounts Receivable Financing Company• Transport Financial Solutions (Chattanooga)
For more information, please visit: www.ctgcompanies.com
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Do You Know My Reps?Cindy West Covers CA & AZ
Terrell Harris Covers CA, ID, OR, [email protected]
Kent Wickman Intermodal [email protected]
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U.S. Economy
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3.5%2.7%3.0%
-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%
Inventory Reduction & Weather
(quarterly, annualized rate percent change)Real Gross Domestic Product
Sources: BEA and ATA
2011 – 20142013 2014
Real GDP 1.9% 2.3%
Economy – GDP
7
Sources: Department of Labor & ATA
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Unempl. RateLabor Participation Rate
Economy – ConsumersU.S Unemployment Rate & Civilian Participation Rate
8
Sources: Department of Commerce & ATA
Consumer Spending (Annual Percent Change)Economy - Consumers
1.6%1.2%
2.6% 2.6%
3.3% 3.5%
2.9%
3.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2012 2013 2014 Est. 2015 Est.
Services Goods
9
Sources: Fed. Reserve
Personal Savings RateEconomy - Consumers
10
Source: IHS Global Insight
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014 Est.
Crude Oil Prices – Impact? WTI, US$ per Barrel
Economy - Consumers
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Purchasing Managers’ Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Growth Border Line
Economy - Industrial
Data through May 2014
12
Sources: Census Bureau and ATA
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Economy - IndustrialTotal Business Inventories-to-Sales Ratio
(Includes retail, wholesale, and manufacturing; Through April 2014)
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Sources: Census Bureau & ATA
Diesel PricesEconomy - Industrial
$2.41$2.71
$2.88
$3.80
$2.46
$2.99
$3.84 $3.97 $3.92 $3.87 $3.78
$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Still high prices, but could be worse considering recent world events, Russia, Middle East, etc., but is remaining stable because for the first time the U.S. is producing more than we are importing
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0.586 0.612
0.7830.929
1.024
1.400
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2014 will be the highest level since 2007
Sources: Census Bureau and ATA
2014 will be the highest level since 2007.
Economy – IndustrialAnnual Housing Starts – Millions of Units
Sources: ATA
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Sources: Census Bureau and ATA
2014 will be the highest level since 2007.
Economy – IndustrialNorth American Light Vehicle Production–
Millions of Units Seasonally Adjusted & Annualized
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
8.09.0
10.011.012.013.014.015.016.017.018.0
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Economy – IndustrialPercent Naming Region as Most Attractive Nearshoring Location
Source: Alix Partners
5%
5%
5%
5%
7%
37%
37%
0%
9%
2%
4%
0%
49%
36%
4%
2%
0%
0%
0%
63%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Other
Central America
Caribbean
South America
Canada
Mexico
U.S.
2011 2012 2013
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Truckload Industry Trends
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Source: ATA based on Trucking Activity Report
TL Supply vs Demand2005 = 100
Through March 2014
TL Loads IndexTL Tractor Count Index
Oversupply
Industry Trends - Capacity
Under-capacity
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Sources: ACT Research
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
U.S. Class 8 TrucksAverage Age in Years
Industry Trends - Capacity
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Source: ATA
Industry Trends - Capacity% Change in the Number of Company & O/O
Tractors
0.2%
-3.5%
-9.0%-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
2013Q1 YOYMar '14 vs Dec '07
Includes all types of TL carriers. 21
Source: Avondale Partners, LLC
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,400
Q1
00
Q1
01
Q1
02
Q1
03
Q1
04
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
14
Q1 2014 Failures = 390 Companies equal to 10,650 trucks, more than double Q1 2013
Trucking FailuresFailures only includes fleets with at least five trucks
Industry Trends - Capacity
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Source: ATA
(Includes all types of TL carriers)
10,946
8,926 7,604
8,250 8,080 7,752 8,066 7,794
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014
Industry Trends – DemandMiles Per Truck Per Month are Down too
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Refrigerated Demand
Sources: BB&TCM and ATA
Industry Trends - Demand
7.7% 6.6% 7.3%3.1% 2.6%
-4.4%1.1% 2.5%
-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%
0
50
100
150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Loads Growth
• Since the end of 2006 reefer loads have grown 20.3%, but trailers are up just 3.4%• Reefer loads have grown 9 of the last 10 years• Reefer loads have averaged 3.3% annual growth since the end of 2003• Reefer FSC…
• It has to happen! Cost of Fuel HOS has reduced miles per trip per day
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Changes in For-Hire Truck Freight Volumes
Sources: ATA’s Monthly Truck Tonnage Report, Trucking Activity Report, & DAT.com
Industry Trends - Demand
2.3%
6.3%
4.5%
0.8%1.5%
2.5%2.4%3.1%
3.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2012 2013 2014
Tonnage TL Loads LTL Shipments
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TL Dry Van Carriers: Not As Many Carriers as You Might Think
Source: ATA, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration; Office of Motor Carriers; BB&TCM
• ~600,000 fleets with operating authority, but...• 406,000* can be eliminated due to oddball categories• 70% of the remaining 194,000 operate Class 3-7 trucks• This leaves 58,000 fleets• Approximately 30% of those are private or “not-for-hire” fleets• Of the 41,000 remaining fleets, 58% are dry van• More than half of those 24,000 fleets operate 5 or fewer trucks• About 8,000–10,000 fleets are in the dry van, for-hire market
with more than 5 trucks• Top 250 control approximately 35%–45% of the trucks
*Excludes selected categories (migrant, unspecified, US mail, exempt, government, Indian tribe, private property, private passenger bus, private non-passenger bus, road repair and “other” classifications totaling 406,000 fleets) that do not compete in the OTR truckload market
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July HOS Changes
Source: CVTI Testing
Major Concerns• 30 – Minute Break requirement• “34 Hour restart” span 2 consecutive 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. periods
Results:• Lost revenues• Increased transit times• On-time performance pressure
Other Concerns• Increased fuel consumption (more idle time)• Lost wages for drivers• Increased risk of parking lot incidents
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Source: ATA
Industry Trends – Professional DriversTL Truck Driver Turnover Rates
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Large Small
CTG companies beat the trend in 2013 by reducing turnover from 111% in 2012 to 99% in 2013. However Q1-14 CTG turnover was 106% vs. 104% in Q1-13 and 107% in Q1-12.
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Industry Trends – Professional DriversConstruction Industry Competition
28.0%
2.1%
18.9%
3.3%
18.3%
4.0%
34.3%
9.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Housing Starts Construction Employment
2012 2013 2014 2015
Sources: Census Bureau, Department of Labor, and ATA
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Why Drivers Leave Their Jobs—It’s a Shipper Problem not Just a Carrier Problem
Source: BB&TCM (photo, analysis and survey); comments on right from BBTCM
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other
Have Not Lef t A Trucking Job
They Were Running Me Too Hard
I Just Wanted To Make A Change
Didn't Get The Right Loads, Or Enough Loads
Didn't Get Home Enough
Lack Of Recognition & Respect
Pay
28.8%
16.5%
7.3%
13.8%
22.3%
18.3%
29.8%
38.0%
28.0%
15.9%
9.4%
10.4%
18.4%
23.8%
34.1%
42.9%
Owner-Operator Company Driver
Does the shipper value a driver’s time?Bathrooms, phonesWifi availabilityHelpful staffParking availabilityClear signsPaper work handled courteously & simply3rd Parties @ Gate-Do they share your view?3% rate hike-~1% goes to driver
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Industry Trends – Professional DriversAverage Number of New Drivers Needed Per Year Over
the Next 10 Years: 96,178
Source: ATA Benchmarking Guide for Driver Recruitment & Retention
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Capacity conclusions – Outlook for 2014• Fleets would expand fleet size if they could• Fleets need to replace a significant amount of aged tractors in the next
few years, if they can afford them (average industry age is now 6.5+ years vs. CTG at 1.9 years; and the average 2013 diesel tractor (sleeper) cost $126K)
• Government regulations have and will further limit capacity (Electronic logs, HOS, CSA, sleep apnea)• Average miles per truck for all types of TL Carriers were down 13% between
2008 and 2013• Mandatory electronic logs expected early 2016
• Driver shortage remains biggest issue regarding capacity• TL Driver turnover rates have steadily increased every year since 2009• As the housing market returns, construction industry competition for
employment of drivers is growing• Aging demographics has more drivers retiring each year than younger drivers
entering the field• Professional drivers deserve better compensation
Industry Trends - Capacity
Source: ATA
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• Many inflationary cost pressures still to overcome:• Driver wages• Equipment (tractors and trailers)• Tires, vehicle replacement parts, maintenance (particulate filters)• Health insurance (ACA-”Obamacare”)• Regulations (CSA, EOBR, HOS, California CARB)
• The combination of upward demand trends, decreasing capacity trends, and the above inflationary cost pressures is resulting in significant contract pricing pressure in 2014
Industry Trends - Pricing
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Bottom Line on Capacity
Tighter CapacityCarrier Fleet Reductions
Source: ATA
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Questions?
Thank You!
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