data versus hunch seminar at hyper island. turning data into creative value

© Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential

Thinking big while thinking real..

A Beyond presentation by Charlie Lyons and Nils Mork-Ulnes

July 2013

data vs hunch


Works between analysts and creatives. Generally a bit crazy....probably as a result of working with the afore mentioned teams....

who the hellare we? Let’s introduce ourselves !

King of Data!Leads the analytics team into a bright future. If you ever need a restaurant tip he is your man....

Charlie LyonsDirector

Nils Mork-UlnesHead of Analytics

Creative Junkie


WHAT IS BEYOND?How did we form, what do we do and who do we work with?


CREDENTIALS?


INSIGHT

TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL

LESS FINANCIAL RISK, MORE CREATIVE PRECISION, AWESOME RESULTS


WE drive brand engagement through the

CREATIVEapplication of content & technology


LONDON

BAY AREA NEW YORK

Our clients drive the social web... and harness it


WHAT IS IT REALLY LIKE OUT THERE?The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth....


RELATIONSHIPS


want it?you get

f$cked..


me sexy!make


want it?youyeah!

hell


THE LAY OF THE LAND....


IT USED TO BE REALLY


20 years agoHR Consultants

brand

HR

pr

finance

operations

strategy

marketing

learning

r&D

product development

sales

PR

Accountants

Management Consultants

Branding Agencies

Ad Agencies

Corporate Training Consultants

Sales Consultants

Product design & innovation agencies


and then the web came along

brand

HR

pr

finance

operations

strategy

marketing

learning

r&D

product development

sales

Brand websiteOnline ads


and got useful for more things

brand

HR

pr

finance

operations

strategy

marketing

learning

r&D

product development

sales


Social

E-commerceSEM

“Fun” apps


and a few more things

brand

HR

pr

finance

operations

strategy

marketing

learning

r&D

product development

salesSocial analytics

Digital supply chains

Digital transformation / change management

E-Recruiting

E-Learning

Co-creation

Crowdsourcing

“Serious” apps

Digital product design & testing

Digital service design


Social

E-commerceSEM

“Fun” apps


everybody’s getting into each others’ businessJust a few examples...

branding

PRmanagement

consultancies

data analytics

Design

social

advertising

digital

Accenturebuying Fjord

W+Kaces social with Old Spice

WCGbuying predictive analytics firm

WPPbuying AKQA

PR + data analytics

digitalADVertising +

ADVertising+social

+managementconsultancies Design


ad spend has followed eyeballs...

6%

14%

42%

26%

12%

23%

10%

43%

22%

3%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Print Radio TV Internet Mobile

% o

f Tot

al M

edia

Con

sum

ptio

n Ti

me

or A

dver

tisin

g Sp

endi

ng

Time Spent Ad Spend

% of Time Spent in Media vs. % of Advertising Spending, USA 2012

~$20B+Opportunity

in USA

Internet Ad = $37B*

Mobile Ad = $4B*


the truth


From scarcity to abundance of data

“WE HAVE PRODUCED MORE DATA IN THE LAST TWO YEARS THAN IN ALL OF HISTORY PRIOR TO THAT” MCKINSEY & CO. 2012


THE VALUE OF DATA HAS SHIFTED FROM CREATING IT TO INTERPRETING IT AND BEING THE FIRST TO TAKE ACTION.


DATA DESCRIBES THINGS AS THEY ARE...

WHICH ISN’T ALWAYS A NEAT STORY


explanationan

our limited ability to look atNarrative Fallacies -

into them..

sequences of facts without weaving

—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan


Where this propensity can go wrong is when it

increases our impression of understanding.

—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan


ALGORITHMS TEND TO PREDICT NATURE BETTER THAN HUMAN EXPERTS....


OF 200 COMPARISONS OF CLINICAL AND STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS

ABOUT 60% HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ACCURACY

FOR ALGORITHMS OVER HUMAN EXPERTS

- THINKING FAST AND SLOW


THE PROBLEM WITH


when psychology drives behaviour, algorithms fail

price = what the market wants to pay book value = what accountants think it’s worth

market price to book value - s&p 500 - 1979-2011


big data is no panacea

With more data, you get more spurious correlations, more false positives, and erroneous answers.

if the quantity of information is increasing by 2.5 quintillion bytes per day, the amount of useful information almost certainly isn't.

Most of it is just noise, and the noise is increasing faster than the signal.

NATE SILVER, AUTHOR OF THE NOISE AND THE SIGNAL


HOW DO YOU PLAY IN A WORLD THAT IS

WITH DATA BUT RUNBY EMOTIONS?

BECOMING OBSESSED


KNOW THE LIMITS AND STRENGTHSSTRENGTHS OF OPINION AND EMPIRICAL PROOF...

...AND ITERATE TO A SOLUTION THROUGH A DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO


PROTECT YOUR CREATIVE IDEAS


WHAT ARE CLIENTS

LIKE?REALLY


CONFUSED!


M.O.A.S


MOON.ON.A.STICK


MOAS?


USE DATA HERE


REDUXYOURBRIEFS


WHITE SPACES


Turning Unstructured data into customer insights

who influences

them?

where Do they spend their

time?

What drives consideration?

What drives brand

Preference & emotional

connections?

?


are there White space

opportunities for content?

what do they search for?

what are they talking about?

what content will they

share?

Using social data for customer-centric digital strategies


Most conversations aren’t about your brand

0.5%0.5%

99%

You and your competitors

Their needs Brand A Brand B


Zeitgeist/Cultural Tensions

Brand Proposition Ideas that connect

Use data to Locate common groundData (search, social) can help you to create a strategy for how the brand proposition

best connects with stakeholders, in ways that make it relevant to them.

The common ground serves as the blueprint for how the brand can tell its story in a relevant way -

based on data-led insights from search and social

patterns (conversations/queries). Provides creative

insight and ensures the plan matches the market

wants/needs.

(HUNCH) (Data)

© Copyright 2012 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential© Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential

How do you interchange between data and creativity?

DATA VS HUNCH?


HOW DO YOU PLAY IN A WORLD THAT IS

WITH DATA BUT RUNBY EMOTIONS?

BECOMING OBSESSED


i’m gonnasend to me

to outta space...


this data is powerful

man,


so creativeI am

right now!


blowing mythis is

mind!!


shiitttt!!!


Phew......

I love my data!forgot where I was!I was having so much fun i


BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER..Short recap on some of these fabulous thoughts...


IS YOUR FRIEND..


D ata Hunch


badass!

i’m ahunchy

data


THANK YOUtimefor your

THANK YOUtimefor your

Nils Mork-UlnesHead of Analytics

+44 (0)2079 086556+44 (0)7713 [email protected]

Charlie LyonsDirector

+44 (0)2079 086565+44(0) 7540 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




data versus hunch seminar at hyper island. turning data into creative value

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