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DanielN.Baker,UniversityofColorado,ChairThomasH.Zurbuchen,Univ.ofMichigan,Vice‐ChairThomasJ.Immel,SteeringCommitteeandAIMPanelmember,reportingCEDARScienceSteeringCmte.NationalResearchCouncilStaffArtCharo,SpaceStudiesBoard,StudyDirectorAbigailSheffer,SpaceStudiesBoard

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I.  Background,TermsofReference,andStudyOrganization

II.  AccomplishmentsofthePastDecadeIII.  ElementsoftheRecommendedScientific

ProgramIV.  RecommendationsRegardingSpace

WeatherApplications

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  StudyinitiatedinFall2010;sponsors:NASAandNSF  Nationalinscope,includingNASA,NSF,NOAAandDOD

investmentsinsolarandspacephysics  Reviewhasbeencommunitybased

  300whitepaperswithideasandnewconcepts  Numeroustown‐hallmeetingsandworkshops  85NRC‐appointedparticipantsservingon3studypanels,5working

groupsandan18membersteeringcommittee  Recommendedprogramfittoresourcesanticipatedina

challengingfiscalenvironment  Costandtechnicalevaluation(CATE)ofselectedNASAreference

missionconceptsperformedbytheAerospaceCorp.,whichworkedundercontractwiththeNRC

  Nograndfatheringofpreviousdecadalrecommendations

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  DanielBaker,NAE,ChairUniversityofColorado,Boulder

  BrianH.Anderson

JohnsHopkinsUniversityAPL  StevenJ.Battel

BattelEngineering  JamesF.DrakeJr.

UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark  LennardA.Fisk,NAS

UniversityofMichigan  SarahGibson

Nat’lCenterforAtmosphericResearch  MichaelA.Hesse

NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenter  J.ToddHoeksema

StanfordUniversity  DavidL.Hysell

CornellUniversity

  ThomasH.Zurbuchen,Vice‐ChairUniversityofMichigan

  MaryK.HudsonDartmouthCollege

  ThomasJ.ImmelUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley

  JustinKasperHarvard‐SmithsonianCenterforAstrophysics

  JudithL.Lean,NASNavalResearchLaboratory

  RamonE.LopezUniversityofTexas,Arlington

  HowardJ.SingerNOAASpaceWeatherPredictionCenter

  HarlanE.SpenceUniversityofNewHampshire

  EdwardC.Stone,NASCaliforniaInstituteofTechnology

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  SteeringCommittee:18membersrepresentingthebroadsolarandspacephysicscommunity.  Responsiblefortherecommendationsinthefinalreport  Includedaliaisonfromeachofthedisciplinarystudypanels

  DisciplinaryStudyPanels:each~15members  Atmosphere‐Ionosphere‐MagnetosphereInteractions  SolarWind‐MagnetosphereInteractions  SolarandHeliosphericPhysics

  “NationalCapabilities”WorkingGroups  5WGs~12members/groupdrawnfromthesurveyandthe

community.  Workacrossthestudypanels;addresscross‐cuttingissues;report

backtoSC  Non‐surveymembersappointedasunpaidconsultants;WGswerenot

formalNRCcommittees  TopicalWorkshops

  SolarProbePlus(peraJune2011NASArequest)  ResearchtoOperations/OperationstoResearch

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  DeterminetheoriginsoftheSun’sactivityandpredictthevariationsofthespaceenvironment.

  DeterminethedynamicsandcouplingofEarth’smagnetosphere,ionosphere,andatmosphereandtheirresponsetosolarandterrestrialinputs.

  DeterminetheinteractionoftheSunwiththesolarsystemandtheinterstellarmedium.

  Discoverandcharacterizefundamentalprocessesthatoccurbothwithintheheliosphereandthroughouttheuniverse.

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  Tomaketransformationalscientificprogress,theSun,Earth,andheliospheremustbestudiedasacoupledsystem.

  Tounderstandthecoupledsystemrequiresthateachsub‐disciplinebeabletomakemeasurableadvancesinachievingitskeyscientificgoals.

  Successacrosstheentirefieldrequiresthatthevariouselementsofsolarandspacephysicsresearchprograms—theenablingfoundationcomprisingtheory,modeling,dataanalysis,innovation,andeducation,aswellasground‐basedfacilitiesandsmall‐,medium‐,andlarge‐classspacemissions—bedeployedwithcarefulattentiontoboththemixofassetsandtotheschedule(cadence)thatoptimizestheirutilityovertime.

  Aproposedprogramneedstofitarealisticresourceenvelopeandaddressresearchandoperationalaspectsofthefield.

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  Budgetsnotgrowingfortheforeseeablefuture.  Coordinatingactionsofmultipleagencies.

  Particularissuefortransitiontooperations.  Controllinggrowthinmissioncost.  Availabilityofappropriately‐sizedandaffordablelaunch

vehicles.  Particularissueformedium‐classlaunchvehicles.

  Buildingresilienceintotherecommendedprogram.  Decisionrulesprovideguidanceintheeventofunanticipated

technicalproblemsorbudgetover‐runs.  Missionsareimplementedatanappropriatecadencetoachievethe

requisiteprogressacrossthedisciplines.  Optimaluseofmissionsofvarioustypesandsizes,takingadvantage

ofinnovativeapproaches.

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  Newinsights,gainedfromnovelobservationsandadvancesintheory,modeling,andcomputation,intothevariabilityofthemechanismsthatgeneratetheSun’smagneticfield,andintothestructureofthatfield,

  Anewunderstandingoftheunexpectedlydeepminimuminsolaractivity;

  Significantprogressinunderstandingtheoriginandevolutionofthesolarwind;

  Strikingadvancesinunderstandingofbothexplosivesolarflaresandthecoronalmassejectionsthatdrivespaceweather;

  Groundbreakingdiscoveriesaboutthesurprisingnatureoftheboundarybetweentheheliosphere—thatistheimmensemagneticbubblecontainingoursolarsystem—andthesurroundinginterstellarmedium;

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  Newimagingmethodsthatpermitustodirectlyobservespaceweather‐drivenchangesintheparticlesandmagneticfieldssurroundingEarth;

  SignificantlydeeperknowledgeofthenumerousprocessesinvolvedintheaccelerationandlossofparticlesinEarth’sradiation‐belts;

  Majoradvancesinunderstandingthestructure,dynamics,andlinkagesinotherplanetarymagnetospheres,especiallyMercury,Jupiter,andSaturn;

  NewunderstandingofthewaysthatspacestormsarefueledbyoxygenoriginatingfromEarth'sownatmosphere;

  Thesurprisingdiscoverythatconditionsinnear‐Earthspacearelinkedstronglytotheterrestrialweatherandclimatebelow;

  Theemergenceofalong‐termdeclineinthedensityofEarth’supperatmosphere,indicativeofplanetarychange;and

  Newunderstandingofthetemporalandspatialscalesinvolvedinmagnetospheric‐atmosphericcouplinginEarth’saurora.

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  TopRecommendations,Orderedinimportance,butalsochronologically,buildingnewresearchcapabilityandscientificknowledgefromthegroundup.ResearchrecommendationsaimedatNSFarethefocushere.

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  TopRecommendations,Orderedinimportance,butalsochronologically,buildingnewresearchcapabilityandscientificknowledgefromthegroundup.ApplicationrecommendationsaimedatNSFarethefocushere.

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  Thesurveycommittee’srecommendedprogramforNSFandNASAassumecontinuedsupportinthenear‐termforthekeyexistingprogramelementsthatcomprisethe“HeliophysicsSystemsObservatory”(HSO)andsuccessfulimplementationofprogramsinadvancedstagesofdevelopment.  ForNSFthismeans:CompleteATST.

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  DRIVE(Diversify,Realize,Integrate,Venture,Educate)willenableNASA,NSFandotheragenciestomoreeffectivelyexploittheirscientificassets.  Specific,cost‐effectiveaugmentationstoNASAandNSFsolarandspacephysicsprograms.

 Willbringexistingenablingprogramstofullfruitionandsupportlarger‐scaleactivitiesrecommendedforlaterinthedecade.

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Diversifyobservingplatformswithmicrosatellitesandmid‐scaleground‐basedassetsRealizescientificpotentialbysufficientlyfundingoperationsanddataanalysisIntegrateobservingplatformsandstrengthentiesbetweenagencydisciplinesVentureforwardwithsciencecentersandinstrumentandtechnologydevelopmentEducate,empower,andinspirethenextgenerationofspaceresearchers

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  Diversify:  Recommendation#1:NSF’sCubeSatprogramshouldbeaugmentedtoenableat

leasttwonewstartsperyear.Detailedmetricsshouldbemaintained,documentingtheaccomplishmentsoftheprogramsintermsoftraining,research,technologydevelopment,andcontributionstospaceweatherforecasting.

‐  CommitteefoundCubeSatrequiresanadditional1M/yeartosupportthis.

  Recommendation#2:Createamid‐scale($4‐90M)lineforground‐basedprojects.

‐Committeefoundtwo“vetted”projectsthatwouldbegoodcandidatesforsuchaproject:  TheFrequencyAgileSolarRadiotelescope(FASR)

  TheCoronalSolarMagnetismObservatory(COSMO)

‐Committeefoundotherlikelyprojects,lesswelldefined:  AnAll‐AtmosphereLidarObservatory  AHeterogeneousIonosphericFacilityNetwork  ASouthern‐HemisphereIncoherentScatterRadar  Next‐GenerationGround‐BasedInstrumentation

Planetary Science • Space Physics • Solar Influences • Atmospheric Science • Engineering • Mission Operations & Data Systems

CSSWE studies violent solar flares and their effects on Earth’s radiation belt electrons.

•  NSF-funded CubeSat mission •  Designed, built, and tested by CU-Boulder students

The LASP/CSSWE team poses near a LASP Mission Operations room in 2011. CSSWE houses the Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope integrated little experiment (REPTile). (Courtesy LASP)

Current update:

•  Launched and deployed September 13, 2012 •  First beacons received September 14, 2012 •  Systems operating successfully: Telemetry, voltages, and temperatures are nominal •  First Science Data are in!

The LASP/CSSWE launched onboard the Atlas 5 rocket on September 13, 2012, from the Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. (Courtesy United Launch Alliance)

UCB’s CINEMA studies energization of magnetopheric plasma by solar wind energy.

•  NSF-funded CubeSat mission •  Designed, built, and tested by UCB students in collaboration with international partners. • Flying 32-channel ENA/p+/e- 3-200 keV particle detector (STEIN), and UCL science magnetometer.

The CINEMA team poses outside of the Bayside Thermal Vacuum Facility at UC Berkeley. Students and advisors from UCB, Kyung-Yee University, Imperial College, and U. Puerto Rico worked together to develop and build the satellite.

Current update:

•  Launched and deployed September 13, 2012 •  First data received September 14, 2012 •  System went silent Oct 7, S-Band beacon received again on Oct 24, indicating watchdog reset. Uplink (UHF) communications issues being resolved. •  Housekeeping data show all other spacecraft systems OK.

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  Realize:Recommendation:NSFshouldprovidefundingsufficientforessentialsynopticobservationsandforefficientandscientificallyproductiveoperationoftheAdvancedTechnologySolarTelescope(ATST),whichprovidesarevolutionarynewwindowonthesolarmagneticatmosphere.

‐Means~12Mdollarsmorethanbudgetedforops.

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  Integrate:  Recommendation:#1NASAshouldjoinwithNSFandDOEinamulti‐agencyprogram

onlaboratoryplasmaastrophysicsandspectroscopy,withanexpectedNASAcontributionrampingfrom$2millionperyear(plusincreasesforinflation),inordertoobtainuniqueinsightsintofundamentalphysicalprocesses.

  Recommendation#2:NSFshouldensurethatfundingisavailableforbasicresearchinsubjectsthatfallbetweensections,divisions,anddirectorates,suchasplanetarymagnetospheresandionospheres,theSunasastar,andtheouterheliosphere.Inparticular,outer‐heliosphericresearchshouldbeincludedexplicitlyinthescopeofresearchsupportedbytheAGSsectionattheNSF.

  Recommendation#3:NASA,NSF,andotheragenciesshouldcoordinateground‐andspace‐basedsolar‐terrestrialobservationalandtechnologyprogramsandexpandeffortstotakeadvantageofthesynergygainedbymultiscaleobservations.

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  Venture:Recommendation: NASAandNSFtogethershouldcreateheliophysicssciencecenters(HSCs)totacklethekeyscienceproblemsofsolarandspacephysicsthatrequiremultidisciplinaryteamsoftheorists,observers,modelers,andcomputerscientists,withannualfundingintherangeof$1millionto$3millionforeachcenterfor6years,requiringNASAfundsrampingto$8millionperyear(plusincreasesforinflation).

‐Inthespiritofsolving“GrandChallenge”questions

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  Educate:

Recommendation:NSFFacultyDevelopmentinSpaceSciences(FDSS)programshouldbecontinuedandbeconsideredopentoapplicationsfrom4‐yearaswellasPhD‐grantinginstitutionsasameanstobroadenanddiversifythefield.NSFshouldalsosupportacurriculumdevelopmentprogramtocomplementtheFDSSprogramandsupportitsfaculty.

- NSF should continue to promote faculty and curriculum development and visibility of solar and space physics.

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  Educate:NewPhDsandOpenedFacultyPositionshaveoppositetrends.

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  Educate:NewPhDsandOpenedFacultyPositionshaveoppositetrends.

  CredittoProf.MarkMoldwinforthedeterminationofthesenumbers.

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MO&DAAugmentationLabExperimentsTechandInstrumentLCASMicrosatsHeliophysicsScienceCenters

~2%ofSTPandLWSmissions‐GI