daily market outlook - asiawealth.co.th filedaily market outlook 21 april 2015 2 please see...
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Daily Market Outlook 21 April 2015
1
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Optimistic exports outlook
Expect the SET to trade up today, as local and global factors
align to provide the country considerably improved exports
outlook. Locally, the MOC’s expressed commitment to
boosting exports, corrective measures for the aviation
industry, both lend cause to optimism. Globally, the increased
liquity from China, optimism on Wall Street regarding 1Q15
earnings, and the strengthening greenback, all provide
upwards momentum for the local bourse.
Pick of the day: TTCL (Bt36.75; NR; Bloomberg
15TP Bt40.03) TTCL’s earnings prospects over the coming years are very
bright especially after the company and its subsidiary have
signed a memorandum of agreement with Myanmar’s
government for the development and operations of a 1280-
MW coal-fired power plant, with total project cost of US$2.8bn
(Bt91.0bn). TTCL will enjoy revenues of around US$1.5bn
from the EPC work of the project in the next 4-6 years and, as
the project operator, it will also obtain stable cash flows for a
30-year concession period. There are two other new key
construction projects on progress this year: 1) Bt3.2bn Co-
Generation Power Plant SSP and 2) Bt7.3bn Seawater
Reverse Osmosis in Qatar. Apart from these 3 new projects,
TTCL’s backlog on hand at present totals Bt34.5bn, half of
which is expected to be recognized as revenue this year.
According to Bloomberg earnings consensus, excluding the
coal-fired power plant mentioned above, TTCL’s earnings
growth this year is expected to be a robust 75% YoY. At
present, TTCL’s price pattern has clearly entered into an
uptrend after the share price breaking the Bt35.50 level. TTCL
is likely to break Bt39.25 before testing an important target at
Bt43. (Resistance: 38.00, 39.25, 41.75; Support: 35.50, 34.25,
31.75)
Local issues
Commerce Ministry to accelerate rice sales, exports.
Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarukulya spoke yesterday of
the ministry’s intention to dispose of 10mn tons of rice this
year out of the remaining 18mn in state stockpiles.
Furthermore, the ministry aims to stimulate exports as
much as possible and will accelerate free trade talks with
potential partners in the next six months. (Bangkok Post)
Government to ground substandard flights, says
Prayut. PM Prayut said Monday he ordered the Transport
Ministry to ground substandard airlines as part of effort to
restore the International Civil Aviation Organization
(ICAO)’s confidence in the Department of Civil Aviation
(DCA), so as to increase the chance of the former allowing
the service continuation of standard ones. ICAO will
announce its reaction to the DCA’s plan on June 18th.
(Bangkok Post)
Major Indices Close Chg %Chg
SET 1,560.32 -6.5 -0.4
SET50 1,033.75 -5.8 -0.6
SET P/E (x) 21.7
SET P/BV (x) 2.2
SET Div. Yield (%) 2.8
Dow Jones 18,034.93 +208.6 +1.2
S&P 500 2,100.40 +19.2 +0.9
NASDAQ 4,994.60 +62.8 +1.3
UK 7,052.13 +57.5 +0.8
Germany 11,891.91 +203.2 +1.7
France 5,187.59 +44.3 +0.9
Japan 19,634.49 -18.4 -0.1
South Korea 2,146.71 +3.2 +0.1
Hong Kong 27,094.93 -558.2 -2.0
China 4,217.08 -70.2 -1.6
Taiwan 9,552.85 -18.1 -0.2
Singapore 3,503.25 -21.9 -0.6
Malaysia 1,848.66 +2.8 +0.2
Indonesia 5,400.80 -9.8 -0.2
Philippines 7,865.27 -81.6 -1.0
Trading Summary Buy Sell Net
Institution 1,884 3,511 -1,627
Proprietary 4,016 3,230 786
Foreign 13,811 13,840 -29
Individuals 19,165 18,296 869
Total Trading Value 38,877 Btmn
Most Active Value Value Close %Chg
PTT 3,389 352.00 -2.5
KBANK 2,036 233.00 -0.4
SCB 1,879 170.50 -2.6
BBL 1,830 188.00 +0.3
TMB 1,807 2.80 -2.8
Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg
US Crude 56.38 +0.6 +1.1
Brent Crude 63.45 - -
Gold 1,193.70 -9.4 -0.8
FX Rates Close Chg %Chg
USD/THB 32.38 +0.0 +0.2
EUR/USD 1.07 -0.0 -0.6
USD/JPY 119.18 +0.3 +0.2
USD/CNY 6.20 +0.0 +0.0
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Technical picks (support & resistance)
KTIS (S: 9.65.25, R: 10.20); SVI (S: 4.56, R: 5.10); BJC
(S: 14.00, R: 15.20); SET (S: 1,545, R: 1,571)
Thailand Research Department
Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041
Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056
Mr. Napat Siworapongpan (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094
Daily Market Outlook 21 April 2015
2
Please see disclaimer on last page
Public debt to GDP expected to stay below 50%. According to the deputy
director-general of the Finance Ministry’s Public Debt Management Office
(PDMO) says GDP is the main determinant of public debt ratio this year, as
borrowing plans are fixed, and if growth is at least 3.6% this year, Thailand’s
public debt will not exceed half of GDP. (Bangkok Post) Comment: Should
growth falls below 3.6% public debt would still be far from being too
high. In accordance with its fiscal sustainability framework the Ministry
aims to cap public-debt-to-GDP ratio at 60% but has set its own limit at
50% as a precautionary alarm. The often quoted figure of a dangerous
public-debt threshold is 90%.
Tax cuts offered for SEZs. Yesterday the cabinet approved concession to
allow factories located in special economic zones (SEZs) to have corporate
income tax halved to 10% for 10 years. Eligible factories must be those
mainly producing import substitutes or exports or operating in sectors where
Thailand is less competitive. Interested investors must submit their
proposals before 2017. (Bangkok Post)
ADVANC is upbeat over postpaid mobile growth as it expects mobile
postpaid market will continue to expand by 15-20% this year thanks to the
exploding growth in demand for mobile data usage while prepaid market has
reached saturation point (Bangkok Post)
KBANK reported 1Q15 net profit of Bt12.4bn, up 24.4% QoQ and 3.9% YoY.
(SET) Comment: This is in line with our forecast. Maintain BUY
recommendation with target price Bt262.00. Full report to follow today.
SCB reported 1Q15 net profit of Bt13.2bn, up 7.5% QoQ and 0.2% YoY.
(SET) Comment: This beat our forecast by 6% from higher than
expected non-interest income. Reiterate BUY recommendation with
target price Bt212.00. Full report to follow today.
Global issues Greece debt default looms large: IMF and G20 meetings in Washington
generated no progress on prospects of Greece reaching a deal on financial
aid that would keep it afloat and in the euro zone. The prospect of Greece
default is looming. (Reuters)
Ukraine debt default looms: Ukrainian authorities failed to secure an
agreement with creditors on Friday in their first attempt to extend maturities
of bonds issued by state-run Ukreximbank. Ukraine is seeking to restructure
the banks' bonds under an IMF backed overhaul of sovereign and state-
guaranteed debt to plug a US$15bn funding gap. (Reuters)
The dollar rose broadly on Monday, with the euro sliding more than half a
percent against the US currency, on growing concern that Greece may
default on debts. The US dollar index was last up 0.50%. (Reuters)
USA Wall Street shares rebounded sharply on Monday after China moved to
stimulate its slowing economy by reducing bank required reserve rate while
investors bought up technology stocks on cautious optimism on upcoming
earnings reports. (Reuters)
The quarterly results of US multinationals have been hurt by unusual
strength in the dollar, which has gained 8% so far in 2015. (Reuters)
Europe European stocks rose on Monday on an M&A deal in the telecom sector
and after China announced economic stimulus measures. However, worries
Greece may default limited gains. (Reuters)
Belgium's Telenet, a subsidiary of cable company Liberty Global reached an
agreement with Dutch KPN to acquire the latter's BASE Company, a
telephone company in Belgium, for €1.33bn (US$1.4bn). (Reuters)
Daily Market Outlook 21 April 2015
3
Please see disclaimer on last page
Asia Chinese shares erased gains as fears of a regulatory crackdown offset the
central bank measures. The CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in
Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 1.6%. (Reuters)
Commodities Oil prices ended slightly higher on Monday after a drop in stockpiles at
the delivery point for US crude in the second half of last week outweighed
pressure from near record high production in Saudi Arabia. Brent crude
settled flat at US$63.45 a barrel. US crude finished up 64 cents at US$56.38.
(Reuters)
Gold fell below US$1,200 an ounce on Monday as equities rallied and the
dollar steadied, while traders assessed China's new policy measures to
shore up the world's second-largest economy. Spot gold was down 0.8% at
US$1,194.68 an ounce. US gold futures for June delivery fell US$9.40 to
settle at US$1,193.70 an ounce. (Reuters)
Daily Market Outlook 21 April 2015
4
Please see disclaimer on last page
Mon Tue Fri
3
XD
DTCI
RCL
UAC
XD
APCO
CHARAN
MK
NSI
PLAT
XD
CTW
MCS
NDR
TCOAT
6 7 10
XD
CSP
LTX
SMPC
TOG
XD
BKD
CCET
XD
CCP
FPI
KBANK
MAJOR
TCAP
TCAP-P
XD
BANPU
GC
SCB
SCB-P
13 14 17
XD
BBL
BIGC
FSMART
HMPRO
KGI
MINT
SCCC
TVI
20 21 24
XD
JMART
JMT
QLT
XD
AIT
ANAN
CIMBT
FORTH
GUNKUL
HTECH
KTB
KTB-P
TMB
TTCL
XD
ECF
KIAT
XD
BJC
QH
XD
AF
AMARIN
ASIA
SEAFCO
SST
TOPP
27 28
XD
BAFS
EFORL
EPCO
GRAND
MFC
MFEC
MTLS
OCEAN
QTC
ROJNA
S11
SF
VPO
XD
AMATA
CHG
CPF
GEL
MBAX
OHTL
PRAKIT
SSF
TICON
TISCO
TISCO-P
XD
ARROW
BAY
BSM
CCN
CENTEL
CPALL
CPR
EASTW
GLOW
HFT
JUBILE
KKP
KTIS
L&E
LH
LHBANK
PJW
PPS
SAPPE
SAUCE
SAWAD
SCG
SE-ED
SENA
SHANG
SIS
SRICHA
TRT
TWZ
UOBKH
UREKA
XD
ABICO
AHC
AKP
ALUCON
BEAUTY
BROOK
CPN
FIRE
FMT
IHL
IRCP
IVL
KWC
LST
M
MALEE
MC
MODERN
NEW
NPK
PB
PCSGH
PDI
PM
PPM
PPP
PT
SC
SPC
SYMC
TMI
TRU
TTA
UKEM
UPOIC
WACOAL
29
Thu
30
23
16
9
21
22
15
8
Wed
April-15
Date Regions
22-Apr-15 EU
23-Apr-15 CNY
EU
US
24-Apr-15 EU
US
Economic Indicators
Consumer Confidence
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
Markit Manufacturing PMI
Markit Manufacturing PMI
Eurogroup meeting
Durable Goods Orders
5
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CG Rating
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors
Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant
to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed
on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative
Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a
general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of
a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate
Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey
result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company
Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2014.
Score Range Number of Logo Description
90 – 100
80 – 89
70 – 79
60 – 69
50 – 59
Below 50
No logo given
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
BAFS EGCO IRPC KTB PTTEP SAT SIM TOPBCP GRAMMY IVL MINT PTTGC SC SPALIBTS HANA KBANK PSL SAMART SCB TISCOCPN INTUCH KKP PTT SAMTEL SE-ED TMB
AAV BIGC DELTA HMPRO NBC PJW SAMCO SVI TOGACAP BKI DRT ICC NCH PM SCC TCAP TRCADVANC BLA DTAC KCE NINE PPS SINGER TF TRUEANAN BMCL DTC KSL NKI PR SIS THAI TSTEAOT BROOK EASTW LANNA NMG PRANDA SITHAI THANI TSTHASIMAR CENTEL EE LH NSI PS SNC THCOM TTAASK CFRESH ERW LHBANK OCC PT SNP TIP TTWASP CIMBT GBX LOXLEY OFM QH SPI TIPCO TVOBANPU CK GC LPN PAP RATCH SSF TK UACBAY CNT GFPT MACO PE ROBINS SSI TKT VGIBBL CPF GUNKUL MC PG RS SSSC TNITY VNTBECL CSL HEMRAJ MCOT PHOL S&J STA TNL WACOAL
2S BEAUTY CSS IHL MFEC PPM SKR TBSP TSC ZMICOAF BEC DCC INET MJD PPP SMG TEAM TSCAH BFIT DEMCO IRC MODERN PREB SMK TFD TTCLAHC BH DNA IRCP MONO PRG SMPC TFI TUFAIT BJC EA ITD MOONG PRIN SMT THANA TVDAJ BJCHI ESSO KBS MPG PTG SOLAR THIP TWFPAKP BOL FE KGI MTI QLT SPC THREL UMIAKR BTNC FORTH KKC NC QTC SPCG TIC UPAMANAH BWG FPI KTC NTV RCL SPPT TICON UPFAMARIN CCET GENCO L&E NUSA SABINA SST TIW UPOICAMATA CGD GL LRH NWR SALEE STANLY TKS UTAP CGS GLOBAL LST NYT SCBLIF STEC TLUXE UVAPCO CHOW GLOW MAJOR OGC SCCC STPI TMI UWCAPCS CI GOLD MAKRO OISHI SCG SUC TMT VIHAQUA CKP HOTPOT MATCH PACE SEAFCO SWC TNDT WAVEARIP CM HTC MBK PATO SEAOIL SYMC TPC WHAAS CMR HTECH MBKET PB SFP SYNEX TPCORP WINASIA CSC HYDRO MEGA PDI SIAM SYNTEC TRT WINNERAYUD CSP IFS MFC PICO SIRI TASCO TRU YUASA
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
6
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Contact
Branch Address Phone Fax
Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini,
Pathumwan Bangkok 10330
02-680-5000 02-680-5111
Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd.,
Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand
02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1
Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21
Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110
02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328
Pinklao
7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr.,
Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,
Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700
02-884-7333 02-884-7357,
02-884-7367
Chaengwattana
99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd
Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
02-119-2300 02-8353006
Chaengwattana 2
9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr.,
Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
02-119-2388 02-119-2399
Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad
Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540
02-106-7345 02-105-2070
Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang
District, Rayong Province 21000
038-808200 038-807200
Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen
40000
043-334-700 043-334-799
Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi
20000
038-053-858 038-784-090
Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub-
District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000
038-981-587 038-981-591