up on central banks expectations - asiawealth.co.th · up on central banks expectations ... to its...

Daily Market Outlook 16 April 2015

1

Please see disclaimer on last page

Up on central banks expectations

Expect the SET to trade up today as local ambivalence is

helped by a wave of global optimism. Locally, news of falling

costs of living and a potential India-Thai FTA will boost

sentiments, but these are somewhat offset by concerns over

tourism. Globally, however, renewed dovishness regarding

the Fed, reaffirmation by the ECB and BOJ of their

accommodating stances provide a strong enough support to

push the local bourse higher today.

Pick of the day: CK (Bt25.50; NR; Bloomberg 15TP Bt31.24) Ch. Karnchang PCL’s 2015 earnings prospects should be very bright with abundant projects on hand and government’s policy to rush up infrastructure projects. CK’s backlog on hand totals Bt93.6bn which will generate annual revenue of at least Bt30bn over the next 3-4 years. According to Bloomberg earnings consensus, CK’s earnings growth this year is expected at a robust 34% YoY. CK has announced a final dividend for 2014 of Bt0.35/share (XD 8 May). Together with a 1H14 interim dividend, 2014 dividend is Bt0.55/share, yielding 2.2% pa. A new daily buying signal on CK shares suggests a rebound for the share price in the short term and is ready to test Bt26.50 and next Bt27.25. (Resistance: 25.75, 26.00, 26.25; Support: 25.25, 24.70, 24.50)

Local issues

Deflation continues. Consumer price levels based on 450

products and services fell for the third consecutive month in

March to a 66-month low, mainly because of weak global

oil prices. Prices dropped by 0.57% YoY, following

February’s 0.52% contraction. Over the first three months

of 2015 prices fell by 0.5% YoY, with non-food items falling

1.7%. Comment: NESDB’s most recent consumer

confidence surveyed showed persistently high cost of

living was a factor in eroding confidence. Thus

continuing trend of deflation should remedy this.

Tougher credit. A slow economic recovery and mounting

household debt have made lenders wary of bad credit,

resulting in tougher credit checks. The National Credit

Bureau (NCB) said 35mn credit checks on existing clients

this year, up 19.9% from 28.1mn last year. Lenders now

review the payment track records of borrowers with weak

repayment history on a monthly rather than quarterly basis

as before, while those with good repayment records are

checked twice a year from an annual basis. Comment:

With housing loans representing the largest portion of

retail loans (41%), followed by auto loans (30%),

contraction in credit would hurt sales for those two

sectors the most.

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,547.83 +2.7 +0.2

SET50 1,025.38 +1.7 +0.2

SET P/E (x) 21.5

SET P/BV (x) 2.2

SET Div. Yield (%) 2.8

Dow Jones 18,112.61 +75.9 +0.4

S&P 500 2,106.63 +10.8 +0.5

NASDAQ 5,011.02 +33.7 +0.7

UK 7,096.78 +21.5 +0.3

Germany 12,231.34 +3.7 +0.0

France 5,254.35 +36.3 +0.7

Japan 19,869.76 -38.9 -0.2

South Korea 2,119.96 +8.2 +0.4

Hong Kong 27,618.82 +57.3 +0.2

China 4,084.16 -51.4 -1.2

Taiwan 9,540.06 -102.2 -1.1

Singapore 3,539.95 +18.9 +0.5

Malaysia 1,840.13 +0.5 +0.0

Indonesia 5,414.55 -4.6 -0.1

Philippines 7,906.46 -150.0 -1.9

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 3,859 3,266 594

Proprietary 2,753 2,416 337

Foreign 9,588 9,840 -251

Individuals 14,099 14,778 -679

Total Trading Value 30,299 Btmn

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

JAS 2,236 5.50 -1.8

TTCL 1,907 34.00 +23.6

BBL 1,354 190.50 +0.3

KBANK 1,093 234.00 +0.4

PTT 1,002 334.00 +0.6

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 56.39 +3.1 +5.8

Brent Crude 60.32 +1.9 +3.2

Gold 1,201.30 +8.7 +0.7

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 32.42 -0.1 -0.2

EUR/USD 1.07 +0.0 +0.3

USD/JPY 119.13 -0.2 -0.2

USD/CNY 6.20 -0.0 -0.1

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Technical picks (support & resistance)

LPN (S: 18.30, R: 19.50); BEC (S: 40.50, R: 45.50);

DELTA (S: 81.75, R: 86.75); SET (S: 1,533, R: 1,560)

Thailand Research Department

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041

Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056

Mr. Napat Siworapongpan (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094


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Tourism slowdown feared following bomb scare. Following a bombing

at Central Festival Samui last Friday where seven people were injured,

preliminary figures already showed a decline in domestic and foreign tourists

to the island. National police chief Somyot Pumpanmuang has revealed that

several well-known southern politicians are suspected of involvement in the

bombing on Friday.

Thai-Indian trade soon to be boosted. An advisor to the India-Thai

Chamber of Commerce said in an interview with The Nation that the new

Indian government policies would encourage more inbound investment into

Thailand, and a Thai-Indian free-trade agreement is expected to be signed

soon. (The Nation)

BJCHI expects more than 15% growth for revenue this year, from Bt4.5bn

last year. Such growth would be driven by its Bt3.4bn backlog on hand which

would be recognized as revenue in this year, together with upcoming bidding

results of the Brazilian project for gas and oil and the project in Australia with

combined Bt10.0bn investment, of which the company expects to win at

least 50%. (Bangkok Post/ InfoQuest)

ERW (Bt4.70) is in its ASEAN push for Hop Inn brand in Indonesia and the

Philippines by 2017, thanks to the countries' positive economies and

booming domestic travel. At home, the group plans to open 15 Hop Inn

hotels for this year and the rest in 2016. For 2015, ERW forecast its hotel

revenue will rise by 35% to Bt5.7bn mainly due to an average occupancy

rate for its hotels in Bangkok of 77%, up from 65% last year and RevPar for

its luxury hotels in Bangkok will also grow by 35%. (Bangkok Post)

Comment: We maintain our positive view on ERW’s 2015 earnings

outlook with BUY recommendation and AWS 15TP Bt5.50

TRUE has transferred digital content and e-money businesses from True

Money, True Internet Data Center and True Digital Content and Media Co

to its parent firm Charoen Pokphand Group’s new holding company Ascend.

True Money targets active customers by year-end at 1mn up from 0.3mn

now. It encourages BOT to develop infrastructure for e-payments similar to

ATM pool. (Bangkok Post)

Global issues Weaker than expected US economic data released on Wednesday

reinforced recent expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to wait

longer to raise interest rates. (Reuters)

China growth slowest in 6 years, more stimulus expected soon. Growth

in China's economy slowed to a six-year low of 7% in 1Q15, better than

many feared, but slowed from 7.3% growth in 4Q14. However, both retail

sales and industrial output missed forecasts, intensifying Beijing's struggle

to find the right policy mix to shore up activity. (Reuters)

USA Wall Street shares finished higher on Wednesday, bolstered by gains in oil

companies and speculation that upcoming 1Q15 earnings might not be as

weak as previously expected. Better-than-expected results from banks

JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo and earnings from Intel that were broadly

in line with expectations boosted the market. (Reuters)

Investors have feared 1Q15 earnings season would be crippled by low oil

prices, a strong dollar and extreme weather in the eastern US. 1Q15 profits

for S&P 500 companies are seen dropping 2.6%, according to Thomson

Reuters data. Of the 36 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so


3


far, 81% beat expectations, better than the 63% of companies exceeding

expectations in a typical quarter. (Reuters)

US manufacturing output fell in February for the third straight month as the

production of automobiles and a range of goods tumbled, the latest

indication of slower economic growth in 1Q15. Factory production slipped

0.2% last month after declining 0.3% in January. Economists had forecast

manufacturing output edging up 0.1% last month. (Reuters)

The New York Federal Reserve said its Empire State general business

conditions index dipped to 6.90 in March from 7.78 in February. (Reuters)

Europe European shares hit a 14-year high on Wednesday after the ECB affirmed

its loose policy stance. Germany’s DAX edged up 0.03%; France’s CAC40

surged 0.70%; UK FTSE rose 0.30%. (Reuters)

ECB President Mario Draghi said after the bank’s policy meeting on

Wednesday the bank would remain committed to the asset-purchase

program of €60bn a month until at least September 2016. The ECB kept

interest rates unchanged at record lows. (Reuters)

Asia Japan edged out China in February as the largest holder of US Treasuries.

Japan's holdings actually declined in February, to US$1.224tn, from

US$1.238tn the previous month, while China's also fell, to US$1.223tn from

US$1.239tn. (Reuters)

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Wednesday the long-term trend of

inflation is steadily improving as the economy recovers moderately.

(Reuters)

Commodities Oil rose sharply on Wednesday after the US government data showed crude

oil inventories rose less than expected last week. The US EIA reported that

US crude inventories rose only 1.3 million barrels to 483.69 million, the

smallest build since the week ending Jan. 2. Brent crude oil prices rose 3%

to US$60.20, while US crude futures closed up 5.8% at US$56.39 a barrel.

(Reuters)

Gold rose 1% above US$1,200 an ounce on Wednesday, as the dollar

receded after weaker than expected US economic data, while stronger US

and European stocks limited the metal's upside. Spot gold was up 0.8% at

US$1,203.10 an ounce. US gold for June delivery settled up Us$8.70

(+0.7%) at US$1,201.30 an ounce. (Reuters)


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Mon Tue Fri

3

XD

DTCI

RCL

UAC

XD

APCO

CHARAN

MK

NSI

PLAT

XD

CTW

MCS

NDR

TCOAT

6 7 10

XD

CSP

LTX

SMPC

TOG

XD

BKD

CCET

XD

CCP

FPI

KBANK

MAJOR

TCAP

TCAP-P

XD

BANPU

GC

SCB

SCB-P

13 14 17

XD

BBL

BIGC

FSMART

HMPRO

KGI

MINT

SCCC

TVI

20 21 24

XD

JMART

JMT

QLT

XD

AIT

ANAN

CIMBT

FORTH

GUNKUL

HTECH

KTB

KTB-P

TMB

TTCL

XD

ECF

KIAT

XD

BJC

QH

XD

AF

AMARIN

ASIA

SEAFCO

SST

TOPP

27 28

XD

BAFS

EFORL

EPCO

GRAND

MFC

MFEC

MTLS

OCEAN

QTC

ROJNA

S11

SF

VPO

XD

AMATA

CHG

CPF

GEL

MBAX

OHTL

PRAKIT

SSF

TICON

TISCO

TISCO-P

XD

ARROW

BAY

BSM

CCN

CENTEL

CPALL

CPR

EASTW

GLOW

HFT

JUBILE

KKP

KTIS

L&E

LH

LHBANK

PJW

PPS

SAPPE

SAUCE

SAWAD

SCG

SE-ED

SENA

SHANG

SIS

SRICHA

TRT

TWZ

UOBKH

UREKA

XD

ABICO

AHC

AKP

ALUCON

BEAUTY

BROOK

CPN

FIRE

FMT

IHL

IRCP

IVL

KWC

LST

M

MALEE

MC

MODERN

NEW

NPK

PB

PCSGH

PDI

PM

PPM

PPP

PT

SC

SPC

SYMC

TMI

TRU

TTA

UKEM

UPOIC

WACOAL

29

Thu

30

23

16

9

21

22

15

8

Wed

April-15

Date Regions

14-Apr-15 US

15-Apr-15 CNY

EU

EU

17-Apr-15 US

Economic Indicators

Retail Sales

Gross Domestic Product

ECB Interest Rate Decision

ECB Monetary Statement

Consumer Price Index

5


CG Rating

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2014.

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 – 100

80 – 89

70 – 79

60 – 69

50 – 59

Below 50

No logo given

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Satisfactory

Pass

N/A

BAFS EGCO IRPC KTB PTTEP SAT SIM TOPBCP GRAMMY IVL MINT PTTGC SC SPALIBTS HANA KBANK PSL SAMART SCB TISCOCPN INTUCH KKP PTT SAMTEL SE-ED TMB

AAV BIGC DELTA HMPRO NBC PJW SAMCO SVI TOGACAP BKI DRT ICC NCH PM SCC TCAP TRCADVANC BLA DTAC KCE NINE PPS SINGER TF TRUEANAN BMCL DTC KSL NKI PR SIS THAI TSTEAOT BROOK EASTW LANNA NMG PRANDA SITHAI THANI TSTHASIMAR CENTEL EE LH NSI PS SNC THCOM TTAASK CFRESH ERW LHBANK OCC PT SNP TIP TTWASP CIMBT GBX LOXLEY OFM QH SPI TIPCO TVOBANPU CK GC LPN PAP RATCH SSF TK UACBAY CNT GFPT MACO PE ROBINS SSI TKT VGIBBL CPF GUNKUL MC PG RS SSSC TNITY VNTBECL CSL HEMRAJ MCOT PHOL S&J STA TNL WACOAL

2S BEAUTY CSS IHL MFEC PPM SKR TBSP TSC ZMICOAF BEC DCC INET MJD PPP SMG TEAM TSCAH BFIT DEMCO IRC MODERN PREB SMK TFD TTCLAHC BH DNA IRCP MONO PRG SMPC TFI TUFAIT BJC EA ITD MOONG PRIN SMT THANA TVDAJ BJCHI ESSO KBS MPG PTG SOLAR THIP TWFPAKP BOL FE KGI MTI QLT SPC THREL UMIAKR BTNC FORTH KKC NC QTC SPCG TIC UPAMANAH BWG FPI KTC NTV RCL SPPT TICON UPFAMARIN CCET GENCO L&E NUSA SABINA SST TIW UPOICAMATA CGD GL LRH NWR SALEE STANLY TKS UTAP CGS GLOBAL LST NYT SCBLIF STEC TLUXE UVAPCO CHOW GLOW MAJOR OGC SCCC STPI TMI UWCAPCS CI GOLD MAKRO OISHI SCG SUC TMT VIHAQUA CKP HOTPOT MATCH PACE SEAFCO SWC TNDT WAVEARIP CM HTC MBK PATO SEAOIL SYMC TPC WHAAS CMR HTECH MBKET PB SFP SYNEX TPCORP WINASIA CSC HYDRO MEGA PDI SIAM SYNTEC TRT WINNERAYUD CSP IFS MFC PICO SIRI TASCO TRU YUASA

Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)

6


Contact

Branch Address Phone Fax

Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini,

Pathumwan Bangkok 10330

02-680-5000 02-680-5111

Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd.,

Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand

02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1

Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21

Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110

02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328

Pinklao

7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr.,

Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,

Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

02-884-7333 02-884-7357,

02-884-7367

Chaengwattana

99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd

Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2300 02-8353006

Chaengwattana 2

9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr.,

Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2388 02-119-2399

Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad

Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540

02-106-7345 02-105-2070

Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang

District, Rayong Province 21000

038-808200 038-807200

Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen

40000

043-334-700 043-334-799

Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi

20000

038-053-858 038-784-090

Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub-

District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000

038-981-587 038-981-591

up on central banks expectations - asiawealth.co.th · up on central banks expectations ... to its...

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