key takeaways - asiawealth.co.th takeaways 2 please see ... 1,289 1,342 1,379 1,535 1,678 sg&a...
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3 February 2015
Key Takeaways
1
Please see disclaimer on last page
VGI Global Media PCL (VGI)
► Analyst meeting on 2 February 2015
► Ongoing good news from increased advertising space.
► 4QFY15 earnings to be neutral but bright earnings outlook
for FY16.
Good news from increased advertising space
VGI and Chulalongkorn University are in the process of negotiating
a contract that would allow the company to use space inside and
outside of Chamchuri Square, a high-rise complex located in a CBD
area. After it signs the contract, VGI expects to begin generating
revenue around June 2015 onward with minimum rent as fixed cost.
Management expects this to contribute around Bt75mn per year
from selling space on two of the mega LEDs and a total of 127
panels of digital & static media. In addition, VGI has been appointed
as the exclusive agent to manage four mega digital billboards at
Victory Monument, which is one of the busiest intersections in
Bangkok with more than 350,000 vehicles driving past every day.
VGI has also installed one mega digital billboard outside Empire
Tower. These mega billboards are expected to contribute around
Bt130mn in revenue per year. The new developments would not
only drive revenue going forward, but also diversify VGI’s business
risk as it diversifies the advertising space in its portfolio.
Don’t expect good 4QFY15 earnings (Jan-Mar 15), but FY16
should be bright
We expect VGI’s 4QFY15 earnings to decline QoQ as it is normally
a low quarter for the company with the country’s low season for
consumption and advertising spending together with the loss of the
sales floor contract at Tesco Lotus from Feb 2015 onward. We
expect VGI’s FY15 net profit to drop 6% YoY to Bt1.07bn.
However, with many good deals to boost revenue, we see bright
earnings for FY16 and good prospects in the medium term. We
expect VGI’s FY16 net profit to increase 19% YoY to Bt1.3bn. We
maintain our earnings forecast for FY15-17 and recommend BUY
with a target price of Bt16.30.
Note: VGI announced a cash dividend payment for its 3QFY15
operations of Bt0.011/share and a stock dividend payment at a
ratio of 1 existing share : 1 stock dividend, XD date 17 Mar 2015.
After XD our target price should drop to Bt8.15/share to reflect the
increase in the number of shares.
BUY
TP: Bt16.30 Upside/downside +32%
Sector Media & Publishing
Paid-up shares (shares mn) 3,432
Market capitalization (Bt mn) 43,243
Free float (%) 36.40
12-mth daily avg. turnover (Bt mn) 189
12-mth trading range (Bt) 14.60/8.35
Major shareholders (%)
BTSC 51.0
BTS Group Holding PCL 11.2
Thai NVDR 2.9
Financial highlights (Year-end Mar)
Source: SET, AWS
Thailand Research Department
Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon,
License, No. 17923
Tel: 02 680 5041
Ms. Sukanya Leelarwerachai, (Assistant Analyst)
Unit: Btmn FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E
Revenue 2,838 3,149 3,040 3,551
Normalized Profit 902 1,146 1,040 1,285
Extra items - - 38 -
Net Profit 902 1,146 1,078 1,285
EPS (Bt) 0.26 0.33 0.31 0.37
EPS Growth (%) n.m. 27% -5% 19%
P/E (x) 48.5 38.2 40.1 33.7
P/BV(x) 23.7 22.1 21.0 19.7
DPS (Bt) 0.26 0.31 0.28 0.34
Div. Yield (%) 2% 2% 2% 3%
3 February 2015
Key Takeaways
2
Please see disclaimer on last page
Key Financial Ratios FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
Operating Revenue Growth (%) 44% 11% -3.5% 17% 13%
Net Profit Growth (%) 224% 27% -6% 19% 16%
EPS Growth (%) 0% 27% -5% 19% 16%
Gross Profit Margin (%) 55% 57% 55% 57% 58%
Operating Profit Margin (%) 41% 44% 41% 43% 44%
EBITDA Margin (%) 45% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Net Profit Margin (%) 32% 36% 35% 36% 37%
Effective tax rate (%) 24% 19% 19% 20% 20%
ROA (%) 35% 42% 36% 40% 43%
ROE (%) 50% 59% 52% 59% 64%
Net Debt to Equity (x) 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.09 0.09
EPS (Bt) 0.26 0.33 0.31 0.37 0.43
BVPS (Bt) 0.53 0.57 0.60 0.64 0.68
DPS (Bt) 0.26 0.31 0.28 0.34 0.39
Dividend Payout Ratio 100% 94% 90% 90% 90%
P/E (x) 48.5 38.2 40.1 33.7 29.1
P/BV (x) 23.7 22.1 21.0 19.7 18.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.9 13.6 13.6 63.8 55.2
Div. Yield (%) 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Income Statement
Unit: Btmn FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
Operating Revenue 2,838 3,149 3,040 3,551 4,006
COGS 1,289 1,342 1,379 1,535 1,678
SG&A 390 426 420 490 553
Gross Profit 1,548 1,807 1,662 2,016 2,328
Operating Profit 1,158 1,381 1,242 1,526 1,776
EBITDA 1,289 1,510 1,503 1,785 2,059
Tax 285 273 257 321 371
Interest Expenses 2.2 0.7 8.0 4.0 4.0
Normalized Profit 902 1,146 1,040 1,285 1,486
One-off items - - 38 - -
Net Profit 902 1,146 1,078 1,285 1,486
EPS (Bt) 0.26 0.33 0.31 0.37 0.43
Statement of Financial Position
Unit: Btmn FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
Cash & Short-term investments 1,254 1,009 859 822 992
Account Receivable 673 607 586 685 772
Total Current Assets 1,995 1,630 1,459 1,520 1,778
Net Equipment 473 923 1,367 1,497 1,453
Total Non-Current Assets 584 1,111 1,555 1,685 1,641
Total Assets 2,579 2,741 3,014 3,205 3,420
Short-Term Borrowings - - 200 200 200
Account Payable 178 151 155 172 188
Total Current Liabilities 737 762 924 984 1,047
Provision for LT employee 22 26 28 31 34
Total Liabilities 758 788 953 1,015 1,082
Paid-up Capital 300 343 343 343 343
Capital Surplus 863 863 863 863 863
Retained Earnings 623 749 857 985 1,134
Total Equity 1,821 1,953 2,061 2,190 2,338
Total Liabilities and Equity 2,579 2,741 3,014 3,205 3,420
Key Assumptions FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E FY2017E
Revenue Breakdown (%)
BTS Media 50 53 62 62 64
Modern Trade Media 44 41 30 24 23
Office Building & Others 6 6 8 14 14
Gross margin (%)
BTS Media 78% 81% 76% 75% 75%
Modern Trade Media 26% 25% 15% 25% 25%
Office Building & Others 72% 69% 65% 70% 70%
Source: SET, AWS estimates
3 February 2015
CG Report
3
Please see disclaimer on last page
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2013.
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors
Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant
to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed
on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative
Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a
general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of
a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate
Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey
result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company
Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Score Range Number of Logo Description
90 – 100
80 – 89
70 – 79
60 – 69
50 – 59
Below 50
No logo given
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
BAFS EGCO IRPC KTB PTTEP SAT SIM TOPBCP GRAMMY IVL MINT PTTGC SC SPALIBTS HANA KBANK PSL SAMART SCB TISCOCPN INTUCH KKP PTT SAMTEL SE-ED TMB
AAV BIGC DELTA HMPRO NBC PJW SAMCO SVI TOGACAP BKI DRT ICC NCH PM SCC TCAP TRCADVANC BLA DTAC KCE NINE PPS SINGER TF TRUEANAN BMCL DTC KSL NKI PR SIS THAI TSTEAOT BROOK EASTW LANNA NMG PRANDA SITHAI THANI TSTHASIMAR CENTEL EE LH NSI PS SNC THCOM TTAASK CFRESH ERW LHBANK OCC PT SNP TIP TTWASP CIMBT GBX LOXLEY OFM QH SPI TIPCO TVOBANPU CK GC LPN PAP RATCH SSF TK UACBAY CNT GFPT MACO PE ROBINS SSI TKT VGIBBL CPF GUNKUL MC PG RS SSSC TNITY VNTBECL CSL HEMRAJ MCOT PHOL S&J STA TNL WACOAL
2S BEAUTY CSS IHL MFEC PPM SKR TBSP TSC ZMICOAF BEC DCC INET MJD PPP SMG TEAM TSCAH BFIT DEMCO IRC MODERN PREB SMK TFD TTCLAHC BH DNA IRCP MONO PRG SMPC TFI TUFAIT BJC EA ITD MOONG PRIN SMT THANA TVDAJ BJCHI ESSO KBS MPG PTG SOLAR THIP TWFPAKP BOL FE KGI MTI QLT SPC THREL UMIAKR BTNC FORTH KKC NC QTC SPCG TIC UPAMANAH BWG FPI KTC NTV RCL SPPT TICON UPFAMARIN CCET GENCO L&E NUSA SABINA SST TIW UPOICAMATA CGD GL LRH NWR SALEE STANLY TKS UTAP CGS GLOBAL LST NYT SCBLIF STEC TLUXE UVAPCO CHOW GLOW MAJOR OGC SCCC STPI TMI UWCAPCS CI GOLD MAKRO OISHI SCG SUC TMT VIHAQUA CKP HOTPOT MATCH PACE SEAFCO SWC TNDT WAVEARIP CM HTC MBK PATO SEAOIL SYMC TPC WHAAS CMR HTECH MBKET PB SFP SYNEX TPCORP WINASIA CSC HYDRO MEGA PDI SIAM SYNTEC TRT WINNERAYUD CSP IFS MFC PICO SIRI TASCO TRU YUASA
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
3 February 2015
Contact
4
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This report has been prepared by Asia Wealth Securities Company Limited (“AWS”). The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but AWS makes no representation as to the accuracy and completeness of such information. AWS does not accept any liability for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of such information or opinions in this report. Before making your own independent decision to invest or enter into transaction, investors should study this report carefully and should review information relating. All rights are reserved. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person in any manner for any purpose without permission of AWS. Investment in securities has risks. Investors are advised to consider carefully before making decisions.
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Pathumwan Bangkok 10330
02-680-5000 02-680-5111
Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd.,
Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand
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Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21
Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110
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Pinklao
7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr., Room
No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,
Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700
02-884-7333 02-884-7357,
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Chaengwattana
99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr.,
Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
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Nonthaburi 11120
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Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad Road,
Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540
02-106-7345 02-105-2070
Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang District,
Rayong Province 21000
038-808200 038-807200
Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen
40000
043-334-700 043-334-799
Chonburi 44 Vachiraprakarn Road, Bangplasoi, Muang Chonburi, Chonburi
20000
038-274-533 038-275-168
Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub-
District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000
038-981-587 038-981-591