current and future trends in the international wine and spirit markets – with an outlook to 2010 (...
TRANSCRIPT
Current and Future Trends
in the International
Wine and Spirit Markets –
with an Outlook to 2010
( Updated in December 2006 )
Methodology
For the 5th time, and since 2002, the International Wine and Spirit Record (IWSR) has been commissioned by Vinexpo to produce a detailed report on global consumption, production and international trade for wines and spirits, with forecasts to 2010.
Since 1971, the IWSR database has been providing the most detailed, accurate and largest running source of data on the global beverage alcohol market.
The current study covers 28 wine producing countries and 114 markets for wine and spirits consumption.
Conversion Formula
1 Hectoliter = 100 Litres = 26.42 US Gallons
1 Million Hectoliter = 26,417,210 US Gallons
Wine Production
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Volume - Millions of Hectoliters
Wine
+5.74%
2001 2005 2010
Wine Distilled for Brandy
270.15
271.41 278.3 287
-8.6% +24.48%14.81
16.85 13.54
+3.18% +2.03%264.76256.60
+2.53% +3.12%
1
Rank Country 2001 20052001/200
52010
2005/2010
1 France 55.34 50.50 -8.74% 51.50 1.98%
2 Italy 52.29 50.50 -3.43% 49.25 -2.48%
3 Spain 31.61 35.30 11.67% 39.30 11.33%
4 USA 27.31 33.89 21.14% 30.60 -7.52%
5 Australia 10.77 15.59 44.86% 17.15 9.98%
6 Argentina 15.84 15.22 -3.88% 15.50 1.84%
7 Germany 8.89 10.50 18.10% 9.50 -9.52%
8 Chile 6.48 7.88 21.53% 9.51 20.63%
9 South Africa 6.39 7.58 18.59% 9.25 22.13%
10 Portugal 7.79 7.25 -6.92% 6.65 -8.28%
Top 10 Total 222.67 233.41 4.82% 238.21 2.06%
Global Total (excludes wine for
brandy distillation)256.60 264.76 3.18% 270.15 2.03%
Top 10 Wine Producing Countries Volume - Millions of Hectoliters Including Wines Distilled for Brandy
49%
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
2
Wine Consumption
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Volume –Millions of Hectoliters
Still Wine* Sparkling Wine
+9.15%
16.004
2001 2005 2010
221.21
218.8227.88
238.83
+8.41%+10.07%
14.76
17.62
+3.84% +4.40%
211.88204.04
16.01
+4.15% +4.80%
3
*Below 15% Alcohol
Top Ten Still Wine* Consuming Countries Volume - Millions of Hectoliters
43.03%
*Below 15% Alcohol
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
4
9.87%100.178.54%91.17384.01Total Top 10
6.11%224.823.71%211.87204.29Total World
35.91%5.5822.45%4.13.35China10
29.97%6.3737.28%4.93.57Russian
Federation9
3.39%5.154.12%4.984.79Romania8
-7.11%9.01-8.32%9.710.58Spain7
-2.94%10.35-12.84%10.6712.24Argentina6
8.29%12.8724.57%11.899.54UK5
7.31%23.545.94%21.9320.70Germany4
18.69%27.3019.59%2319.23USA3
1.09%27.202.89%26.9126.15Italy2
-9.31%24.89-11.84%27.4431.13France1
2005/2010
20102001/200
520052001CountryRank
Rank Country 2001 2005 2001/2005 2010 2005/2010
1 Germany 3.66 3.55 -3.03% 3.80 7.05%
2 France 2.79 2.71 -2.83% 2.68 -1.18%
4Russian
Federation1 1.45 45.09% 1.77 21.96%
3 USA 1.11 1.23 10.52% 1.37 11.47%
5 Italy 0.89 1.06 18.39% 1.12 5.87%
6 Spain 0.77 0.80 3.51% 0.84 5.65%
7 UK 0.47 0.68 45.32% 0.87 26.65%
8 Australia 0.33 0.45 37.31% 0.58 28.95%
9 Poland 0.40 0.39 -4.70% 0.37 -4.42%
10 Argentina 0.16 0.20 25.15% 0.25 23.04%
Total Top 10 11.58 12.51 7.99% 13.63 8.98%
Total World 14.88 15.87 6.66% 17.47 10.13%
Top Ten Sparkling Wine Consuming Countries Volume – Millions of Hectoliters
78.16%
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
5
Consumption / Capita / Year (in Liters)
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
10
20
30
40
2001 2005 2010
Netherlands29.8
Australia31.9
U.K28.5
Sweden24.6
Norway20.3
Canada13.6
USA12.7
6
Wine Consumption (By Color)Volume – Millions of Hectoliters / Still
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
7
Red White Rose
19.49
86.02
106.36 113.92
86.49
20.8
98.96
86.31
18.77
+0.55%
+6.68%
+7.11%
-0.33%
+3.84%
+7.48%
+3.8% +4.40%2001 2005 2010
(50.19%)
Wine Consumption Value –Billions of Dollars, Data from 2005*
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
*Retail sales including all taxes.
8
Still Sparkling
+20.11%
15.37+10.23%13.94
100.4391.6283.5
16.61+8.08%
+9.72% +9.62%
97.44106.99
117.04
+ 9.80% +9.4%2001 2005 2010
Rank Country 2001 2005 2001/2005 20102005/201
0
1 USA 15.65 19.17 22.49% 22.75 18.70%
2 France 9.93 8.86 -10.81% 8.70 -1.71%
3 UK 6.80 8.51 25.21% 9.48 11.32%
4 Germany 7.36 7.74 5.11% 8.37 8.13%
5 Italy 6.48 6.70 3.49% 6.85 2.16%
6 Australia 2.42 2.81 16.43% 3.55 26.16%
8 Japan 2.85 2.61 -8.22% 2.68 2.49%
7 Spain 2.59 2.40 -6.92% 2.28 -5.32%
9 Canada 1.6 2.04 27.65% 2.44 19.60%
10 Netherlands 1.65 1.95 18.64% 2.08 6.60%
Total Top 10 57.30 62.8 9.59% 69.17 10.15%
Total World 83.5 91.62 9.72% 100.43 9.62%
68.5%
*Retail sales including all taxes.
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Top 10 Countries for Retail Sales Value – Billions ofDollars, Data from 2005*
9
Wine Consumption (By Price Point)
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Volume – Millions of Hectoliters / Still *
*Retail Prices Including All Taxes.
Under $5 $5-$10 Over $10
35.238
2001 2005 2010
13.16
40.92
167.13
11.09
31.46
161.5
+1.29%
+19.21%
+1.02%
+17.2%
+9.12%
+2.44%
+3.8% +4.4%
11.23
163.15
37.5
10
Global Wine Consumption (By Origin)
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Volume –Millions of Hectoliters / Still
Domestic Imported
+ 8.41%
- 0.8%
+ 20.9%+ 14.65%
+ 1.82%
42.44
161.61
204.04
2001
51.30
160.57
211.88
2005
58.82
162.39
221.21
2010+ 3.8% + 4.4%
11
Rank Country 2001 2005 2001/2005
1 Italy 14.79 13.28 -10.21%
2 France 14.27 12.51 -12.39%
3 Spain 8.88 12.42 39.87%
4 Australia 4.17 6.86 64.46%
5 Chile 3.1 4.16 34.29%
6 USA 2.69 3.34 24.07%
7 Germany 2.22 3.02 36.12%
8 South Africa 1.76 2.8 59.09%
9 Argentina 0.87 2.12 143.17%
10 Portugal 0.81 1.78 119.7%
Top Ten Exporters Volume – Millions of Hectolitrers / Still
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
12
Rank
Country 2001 20052001/200
52010
2005/2010
% of Consumpti
on
1 Germany 10.90 12.57 15.39% 14.03 11.61% 57.3%
2 UK 9.53 11.87 24.5% 12.85 8.25% 99.8%
3 USA 4.2 6.17 46.85% 7.86 27.37% 26.83%
4Netherlan
ds3.15 3.59 14.08% 3.82 6.49% 100%
5 Bel / Lux 2.33 2.49 7.01% 2.53 1.77% 95.09%
6 Canada 1.57 2.02 28.55% 2.43 20.48% 70.22%
7Switzerlan
d1.74 1.69 -2.76% 1.67 -1.07% 62.29%
8 Denmark 1.57 1.57 0.06% 1.68 6.68% 100%
9 Sweden 1.3 1.51 15.99% 1.69 11.93% 100%
10 Japan 1.37 1.26 -7.77% 1.38 9.29% 56.59%
Top 10 Consumers of Imported Still Wine Volume – Millions of Hectoliters
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
13
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Total World Consumption of SpiritsVolume – Billions of 9 Liter Cases
+13.92%+13.92%
+7.48%
+6%
2.03
2.18
2.31
2001 2005 2010
14
Spirits 2001 2005 2001/2005 2010 2005/2010
Vodka 427.54 504.11 17.89% 526.06 4.38%
Brandy 106.30 117.31 10.36% 126.01 7.42%
Rum 104.44 113.39 8,57% 129.04 13.80%
Scotch Whisky 75.93 78.08 2.83% 82.91 6.19%
Liqueurs 69.92 74.09 5.96% 76.94 3.85%
Gin 59.07 52.95 -10.36% 47.23 -10.80%
Tequila 17.12 19.65 14.73% 25.2 28.24%
Cognac / Armagnac
8.72 9.78 12.18% 11.3 15.54%
Other spirits 1,130.62 1,180.78 4.44% 1,253.82 6.19%
Total World 2,025.74 2,177.29 7.48% 2,307.86 6%
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Spirit Consumption by Category Volume – Millions of 9 Liter Cases
15
Spirit Consumption Value – Billions of Dollars, Data from 2005
+12.11%+12.11%
161.19
+5.45%
+6.32%
169.98
180.71
2001 2005 2010
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
16
*Retail sales including all taxes.
The US Market
17
Wine Consumption Volume – Millions of Hectoliters
+40.91%
20.3524.23
28.67
+10.52%+11.47%
1.11
1.37
1.23
2001 2005 2010
27.3
+19.58%
+18.69%
2319.23
+19.08% +18.32%
SparklingStill
18
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Beer
109
Wine
12.3
Spirits
7.6
Consumption per Capita (in Liters) Still and Sparkling Wine / Spirits / Beer
19
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Forecast 2010:
12,3
11,7
10,4
6,6
7,6
7,2
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2001 2005 2010
120
116
109
108
112
116
120
124
Wine Consumption
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
+ 45.41%
2001 2005 2010
15.65
19.17
22.75
+22.49%+18.7%
Value – Billions of Dollars, Data from 2005 / Still
20
*Retail sales including all taxes.
Wine Consumption (by Price Point) Volume – Millions of Hectoliters / Still
9.34 10.811.69
11.03
7.45
9.32
2.87
3.24
+15.67% +8.2%
+25.17%
+18.35%
+17.49%
+12.87%19.23
23.01
+41.93 %+41.93 %
2.45
27.3
+19.58% +18.69%2001 2005 2010
Under $5 $5-$10 Over $10
21
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Wine Consumption (by Color) Volume – Millions of Hectoliters / Still
2001 2005 2010
Red White Rose
6.92 9.5912.35
9.417.69
10.44
4.01
4.51
4.62
+38.51% +28.79%
22.27%
+11.01%
-13.3%+12.51%19.23
23.0127.3
+41.93%+41.93%
+19.58% +18.69%
22
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
Volume -Millions of Hectoliters – Still and Sparkling Wines
Source: Vinexpo / The IWSR 2007
US Wine Consumption (by Origin)
Domestic Imported
+40.91%
+11.67%
+44.56%+26.85%
+15.11%
4.58
15.76
20.35
2001
6.63
17.6
24.23
2005
8.41
20.26
28.67
2010+19.08% +18.32%
23