critical thinking. hindsight bias also known as “i- knew-it-all-along” phenomenon tendency to...
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CRITICAL THINKING
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Hindsight BiasAlso known as “I-
Knew-It-All-Along” PhenomenonTendency to believe, after learning the outcome, that we knew it all along
PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
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Overconfidence contaminates our everyday judgmentsLimited by the tendency to think we know more than we do Usually more
confident than correct
Political Elections?
OVERCONFIDENCE
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Scientific AttitudeHard-headed curiosity to explore and understand the world w/out being fooled by it
Critical ThinkingTest assumptionsDiscern hidden valuesEvaluate EvidenceAssess Conclusions
SCIENTIFIC ATTITUDE
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Theory: effectively organizes a wide range of observations in implies testable predictions or hypotheses What results confirm or
disconfirm our theoryPsychologists report
results with CLEAR operational definitions Thus allows others to
test the theory
PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORIES AND SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
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Case StudyThe analysis of one or more individuals in great depth
Hope: Revelation of things true in all of us
Problem: Any given subject may be atypical
Result: Case becomes misleading
CASE STUDIES VS. SURVEYS VS. NATURALISTIC OBSERVATION
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Survey Looks at many cases
less in depth Hope: Results will
show a consensus Problem: Biased
sample of people who share our attitudes and habits (Polls)
Result: Vulnerable to false consensus effect (we overestimate agreement with us
CON’T
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Naturalistic Observation Observing and recording
behavior of organism in their natural habitat
Hope: description of behavior will lead to reasononing
Problem: describes behavior but does not explain it
Result: No cause of behavior can be determined
CON’T
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Correlation Coeffi cientA statistical measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus how well either factor predicts the other
CORRELATIONS
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CORRELATION CON’T
Correlation coefficient
Indicates directionof relationship
(positive or negative)
r = +.37
Indicates strengthof relationship(0.00 to 1.00)
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Scatterplots a graphed cluster of dots,
each of which represents the values of two variables
the slope of the points suggests the direction of the relationship
the amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation little scatter indicates high
correlation also called a scattergram
or scatter diagram
CORRELATION CON’T
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SHOWING PATTERNS OF CORRELATIONS
Perfect positivecorrelation (+1.00)
No relationship (0.00) Perfect negativecorrelation (-1.00)
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CORRELATION CON’T
Height and Temperament of 20 Men
12345678910
11121314151617181920
80636179746962757760
64767166737063716870
75666090604242608139
48697257637530578439
SubjectHeight in
Inches Temperament SubjectHeight in
Inches Temperament
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CORRELATION
959085807570656055504540353025
Temperamentscores
Height in inches
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Illusory Correlation the perception of a relationship where none exists
ILLUSORY CORRELATION
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ExperimentResearch method in which the investigator manipulates one or more variables Observe their effect
on some behavior or mental process
EXPERIMENTATION
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Experimental Condition the condition of an
experiment that exposes participants to the treatment, that is, to one version of the independent variable
Control Condition the condition of an
experiment that contrasts with the experimental treatment
serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment
EXPERIMENTATION CON’T
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Placebo an inert substance or
condition that may be administered instead of a presumed active agent, such as a drug, to see if it triggers the effects believed to characterize the active agent
Double-blind Procedure Research participants and
staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the research participants have received the treatment or a placebo
commonly used in drug-evaluation studies
EXPERIMENTATION CON’T
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Random Assignmentassigning participants to experimental and control conditions by chance
minimizes pre-existing differences between those assigned to the different groups
EXPERIMENTATION CON’T
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Independent Variable the experimental factor
that is manipulated the variable whose effect
is being studied Dependent Variable
the experimental factor that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable
in psychology it is usually a behavior or mental process
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EXPERIMENTATION CON’T
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Mode the most frequently occurring
score in a distribution Mean
the arithmetic average of a distribution
obtained by adding the scores and then dividing by the number of scores
Median the middle score in a
distribution half the scores are above it
and half are below it Range
The diff erence between highest and lowest scores in a distribution
STATISTICAL REASONING
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Standard Deviationa computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean
Statistical Significancea statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance
STATISTICAL REASONING CON’T
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Can laboratory experiments illuminate
everyday life?
QUESTION #1
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Does behavior vary with gender?
QUESTION #2
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Is psychology free of value judgments?
QUESTION #3
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Is it Ethical to experiment on animals?
Is it Ethical to experiment on Humans?
QUESTION 4 & 5
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Is psychology potentially dangerous?
QUESTION #6