september 11th in hindsight: in hindsight: recovery and ... · september 11th in hindsight: in...

September 11September 11thth in Hindsight: in Hindsight: Recovery and ResolveRecovery and Resolve

August 30, 2002August 30, 2002

Toronto StarToronto StarSRCSRCCBCCBC

EKOS PollEKOS Poll

Commissioned by:

Outline

A. Highlights

B. September 11th in Hindsight

C. Risk, Threats and Security

D. Conclusions

Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission

Methodology1. Telephone survey of the general public.

1209 completed interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and over (n=309 in Quebec)Interview period: August 26-28, 2002National results valid within +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 (Quebec: + 5.7%)

The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided

It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error.

2. Results from Public Security Monitor, a weekly tracking of a national random sample of 2400 (300 per week) respondents between October 23rd to December 12th and a monthly tracking between January and July 2002.

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.


A. HighlightsHighlights


HighlightsImpacts important but neither as deep nor profound as expected

September 11th definitely registered sizable impacts but these are smaller than expected and have abated as time goes byLast year nearly 80% thought their lives would be “deeply and permanently changed”; Now only 16% note a high personal impact and 33% a high impact on Canada. Canadians lean to the view that the world is profoundly and permanently changed but nearly half believe that things will be pretty much the same

September 11th increased sense our sense of “readiness for future attacks” and a “rebalancing/rethinking of life priorities”

More disturbingly, events have increased negativity to Arabs/MuslimsModest, positive effects were noted on attitudes to the U.S. (feelings have cooled since immediate aftermath)Recognition that civil liberties/human rights have worsened

Trajectory/movementRestored or restoring: Economic outlook; immigration; risks, public prioritiesUndergoing change: Sovereignty (U.S. relations); tolerance; security vs. civil libertiesPermanent or generational: World view (sadder, more vigilant, healthier balance of priorities)


B. September 11September 11thth in in HindsightHindsight


Examining the Impact and ResponsePersonal impact modest

16% say events had high impact on them personally; 54% think the events of September 11th have produced profound changes

Outlook dominated by sadness followed by resolveFew feel fear or angerWomen lean to sadness; men equally likely to choose sadness and resolve

Closer ties to U.S.Sept. 11 produced “warmer” attitude to U.S. which has dissipated but not returned to pre-Sept. levelsShared security perimeter divides Canadians; support decliningStrong support for participation with U.S. in Afghanistan but not Iraq

Government response seen positivelyOverall, good marks for governments in both countries (U.S. better)Balance of civil liberties and security good Directional support for Government of Canada excellent (up 20 points)


Impact of September 11th

Q: Overall, how much impact over the past year did the events of September 11th and the fallout from that event have on you personally? How about the overall impact on Canada?

4

25

33

16

5

59

58

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

DK/NR Low impact Moderate impact High impact

Personal impact

Impact on Canada

{Base: n=1209}


Canadian’s OutlookQ: As we approach the anniversary of September 11th, which of the following words best

characterize your overall outlook?

{Base: n=1209}

4

10

13

27

45

0 20 40 60 80 100

DK/NR

Anger/Retribution

Fear/Anxiety

Confidence/Resolve

Sorrow/Sadness

WomenMen

3%6%

7%13%

14%12%

21%34%

55%35%


September 11th – A life altering event?Q: Which statement comes closest to your point of view?

2

44

54

0 20 40 60 80 100

The events of September 11th have profoundly changed the world in which we

live in a major and permanent fashion

September 11th was a terrible tragedy but life goes on and the world will pretty much

be the same despite this event

DK/NR

{Base: n = 1209}


Impact of September 11th

Q: Nearly one year later, please rate the impact of September 11th on the following areas:

3

5

5

4

3

33

19

37

26

29

42

29

48

17

37

16

34

39

33

42

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Personal values/Life priorities

Human rights/Civil liberties*

Preparedness for future attacks*

Feelings towards Muslims/Arabs

Feelings towards the U.S.

DK/NR Negative effect Neither Positive effect

{Base: n=1209; * indicates ½ sample}


Government Response to September 11th Q: How would you rate the performance of the

Government of the U.S. in dealing with September 11th and its aftermath?

Q: How would you rate the performance of the Government of Canada in dealing with September 11th and its aftermath?

2

26

33

40

0 25 50 75

DK/NR

Poor

Neither

Good

1

25

21

53

0 25 50 75

DK/NR

Poor

Neither

Good

n=614n=1209


Tracking Satisfaction with Government DirectionQ: All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right

direction or the wrong direction?

37%41% 37%

42% 42%

46%

57%50% 49% 46% 48%

41%

0%

20%

40%

60%

24-Oct

7-Nov

21-Nov

5-Dec

19-Dec

2-Jan

16-Jan

30-Jan

13-Feb

27-Feb

13-Mar

27-Mar

10-Apr

24-Apr

8-May

22-May

5-Jun

19-Jun

3-Jul

17-Jul

31-Jul

14-Aug

28-Aug

Wrong direction Right Direction

{Base: All Canadians}

65%

25%


C. Risk, Threats and Risk, Threats and SecuritySecurity


New outlook on civil liberties and toleranceSecurity trumps values

Recognition that civil liberties have been negatively affectedMajority trusts government (though 1 in 3 do not) to strike the right balance

Less tolerance in ad hoc, not generalized mannerFeelings toward Arabs/Muslims more negative48% say ethnic profiling is okay; virtually unchanged since Sept. 2001Support for immigration remains strong and returning to pre-September 2001 levels

Low personal risk but more vigilanceSense of personal risk low but one in two think that another terrorist attack in U.S. is very likelyAlmost half of Canadians think that terrorist activities in Canada are a problem

In retrospect, strong support for participation in Afghanistan conflict As conflict evolved, Canadians became less supportive of continued participationNo appetite for participation in Iraq conflict


Likelihood of Suffering from a Terrorist Attack

10%

23%67%

Low likelihood

Moderate likelihood

High likelihood

Q: How likely do you think it is that you and your family will suffer from a terrorist attack in the next two years?

(n=609)

August 26 to 28

67

23

10

0

25

50

75

Sep-01

Oct-01

Nov-01

Dec-01

Jan-02

Feb-02

Mar-02

Apr-02

May-02

Jun-02

Jul-02 Aug-02

Low likelihood Moderate likelihood High likelihood



Likelihood of U.S. Experiencing Another Terrorist AttackQ: How likely do you think it is that the U.S. will experience another similar scaled or worse

terrorist disaster in the coming year?

2 4523 29

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

DK/NR Not very likely (1-3) Somewhat likely Very likely (5-7)

{Base: n = 600}


Concern Over Terrorist Activities in CanadaQ: Please indicate whether or not you agree or disagree with the following statements: We have a

serious problem with groups supporting terrorist activities in Canada.

4 4924 24

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

DK/NR Disagree Neither Agree

{Base: n = 1209}


Canada-U.S. Security Perimeter


3030

383937

29

454745

39

1518

1415

1212

1414

1415

53514645

5157

403540

44

0 25 50 75 100

Sep. 24 to Sep. 26 (n=1228)

Oct. 23 to Oct. 25 (n=309)

Nov. 19 to Nov. 21 (n=325)

Nov. 26 to Nov. 28 (n=327)

Dec. 3 to Dec. 5 (n=329)

Dec. 10 to Dec. 12 (n=335)

Feb. 25 to Feb. 28 (n=406)

Apr. 22 to Apr. 25 (n=291)

Jul. 2 to Jul. 5 (n=404)

Aug. 26 to Aug. 28 (n=1209)

Disagree Neither Agree

Fall 2001

Q: Please indicate whether or not you agree or disagree with the following statements: I support creating a Canada-U.S. security perimeter, even if it means we must effectively accept American security and immigration policies.

Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission {Base: All Canadians}

Striking a Balance Between Security and LibertyQ: Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements: I can trust the

Government of Canada to strike the right balance of security and civil liberties.

2727

242626

41

353337

31

2826

242322

17

2120

1921

4546

504951

41

43454248

0 25 50 75 100

Nov. 5 to 7 (n=303)Nov. 12 to 14 (n=323)

Nov. 19 to 21 (n=325)Nov. 26 to 28 (n=327)

Dec. 3 to 5 (n=329)Dec. 10 to 12 (n=335)

Jan. 28 to 31 (n=407)Mar. 25 to 28 (n=403)

Jun. 4 to 6 (n=405)Aug. 26 to 28 (n=578)


Fall 2001


Racial ProfilingQ: Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements: Given current

circumstances, I think that it is acceptable that airline, police and customs officials give special attention to individuals of Arabic origin.

30

50

48

34 15

20

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


August 2002

September 2001

n=625

n=1209


Military Support in RetrospectiveQ: In hindsight, do you support or oppose the Canadian military participation in Afghanistan in the

aftermath of September 11th? Please respond using a 7-point scale where 1 means strongly oppose, 7 means strongly support and 4 means neither oppose not support.

58% 21%

20%

Oppose Neither Support

{Base:n=1209}


Support for Military Participation During ConflictQ: Do you support or oppose Canadian participation in military retaliation in response to the

terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001?

14%

20%20%

20%18%

19% 22% 20%22%

29%

28%

46%51%51%

57%

55%

59%

66%

61%

65%

58%

62%

57%

0

25

50

75

Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02

Oppose Support



Support for Attacks in Iraq


Q: On the same scale, do you support or oppose Canadian participation if the U.S. and its allies decide to attack Iraq?

4

3

3

2

26

44

37

42

44

18

16

19

21

16

52

37

38

35

38

5

0 25 50 75 100

Jan. 28 to Jan. 31(n=407)

Feb. 25 to Feb. 28 (n=406)

Mar. 25 to Mar. 28(n=403)

Apr. 22 to Apr. 25(n=401)

Aug. 26 to Aug. 28(n=1209)

DK Oppose Neither Support

JANUARY: …if the U.S. and its allies decide to attack other countriesthat are allegedly home to terrorists groups?


Canadian Attitudes Towards ImmigrationQ: In your opinion, do you feel that there are too many, too few or about the right number of

immigrants coming to Canada?

31%

40%

37%

39%39%

34%

27%

35%

30%

38%

32%

34%35%

41%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02

September 11th

% indicating “too many” (5,6,7 on a 7 point scale)



D. ConclusionsConclusions


Bottom LineWorld has changed but not as dramatically as we thought on Sept. 12, 2001

Personal changes are modest; broad societal changes more significantMost significant shifts are in world view and values (which is impressive since these are typically inert and move more glacially)

Key shiftsWe are now sadder, more wary and more vigilant (importantly Canadians think terrorism is domestic problem)A different balancing which leans more to security than human rights has emerged We are selectively less tolerant (a new sense of us/them with Arab/Muslim world)Positively, values and belonging have risen (particularly in U.S.) and we have greater sense of balance/life priorities

Afghanistan military involvement was strongly supported; Iraq is not

Attitudes to government handling are generally positive (both Canada and the U.S.) and support for broad direction of Government of Canada is remarkably positive

Desire for increased defence and security spending neither dampened desire for traditional priorities nor changed the desired role for the state in Canada

For more information:Frank Graves, President

[email protected]

Richard Jenkins. Senior [email protected]

Christian Boucher, Senior [email protected]

t: 613 235 7215

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