crisis “management”: a way forward david s. alberts [email protected] presented to crisis...
TRANSCRIPT
Crisis “Management”: A Way Forward
David S. [email protected]
presented to
Crisis Management 3.0: Social Media and Governance in Times of Transition
Wilson Center Science and Technology Innovation ProgramFebruary 16, 2012
Agenda
• Nature of 21st Century Crises
• Implications for Crisis “Management”
• Research Results
• Way Forward
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
3
3
Complex Endeavor
Complexity of ‘Self’
Complexity of the Task and Environment
=
+
21st Century Crises are Complex Endeavors
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Complexity of Task and Environment
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• The success of 21st Century Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space
- political, social, economic, military
• The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain.
Humanitarian AssistanceCounter Terrorism
Stability Operatio
nsDisaster Relief
Peace Keeping
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
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• Self = A large number of heterogeneous, independent entities that differ significantly with respect to:
• Culture, values and norms;• Laws, policies, rules, and regulations;• Practices and processes; • Levels of trust; • Language;• Information and communications capabilities; • Approach to organization and management.
• The complexity of ‘Self’ comes from the nature of the interactions between and among the participating entities and the dynamics of the situation that affect entity willingness, constraints, perceptions, and capabilities.
Complexity of Self
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
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Challenges to Basic Assumptions
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• There will not be a unified chain of command.• Entities will each have their own intent.• The situation will be, in part, unfamiliar to all
entities.• There will be multiple planning processes.• Critical information and expertise necessary to
understand the situation will be non-organic. • Actions, to be effective, will require developing
synergies between and among entity actions.
Complex Endeavors require new approaches to “management”
to achieve Collective Focus and Convergence
Crisis Management
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
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Challenges to Basic Assumptions
• Increased complexity will make the unexpected occur with greatly frequency
• The effective lives of plans will be shorter – they may expire within the planning cycle.
• Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will not be available
• Traditional approaches to decision making under uncertainty will be less applicable
Ability to Understand
The most appropriate response to increased complexity
and the associated increases in uncertainty and risk is
increasing Agility Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Approach Space
allocationof decision rightsto the collective
patterns of interactionamong entities
dist
ribut
ion
of in
form
atio
n
amon
g en
titie
s
nonetightly constrained
unconstrained
broad
none
broad
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Approach Space
allocationof decision rightsto the collective
patterns of interactionamong entities
dist
ribut
ion
of in
form
atio
n
amon
g en
titie
s
nonetightly constrained
unconstrained
broad
none
broad
Hierarchy
Edge
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Approach Space
10
Edge
Collaborative
Coordinated
De-Conflicted
Conflicted allocation
of decision rights
to the collective
patt
erns
of
inte
ract
ion
amon
g en
titie
sdistribution
of information
among entities
nonetightly constrained
unconstrained
broad
none
Source: NATO NEC2 Maturity Model
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Agenda
• Nature of 21st Century Challenges
• Implications for Crisis “Management”
• Research Results
• Way Forward
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Research Results
More network-enabled
more Shared Awareness, but
greater information flows and
transactions
More transactions
greater workloads greater
queues
increased delays reduced
effectivenessAlberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Research Results
More network-enabled
more Shared Awareness, but
greater Information flows and
transactions
More transactions
greater workloads greater
queues
increased delays reduced
effectivenessAlberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Need to strike a balance between enabling transactions necessary to develop sufficient shared awareness and enable self-
synchronizationwhile discouraging those that are not mission
critical
Comparative Agility Mapfor Organization-Approach options
Endeavor Space
with varying conditions of signal to noise and with varying requirements
for shared situation awareness and response time
Edge
Collaborative
Coordinated
De-conflicted
Organization Approach Options
14Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Enablers of Agility
• Responsiveness
• Versatility
• Flexibility
• Resilience
• Adaptiveness
• Innovativeness
These properties are interrelated
Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
Way Forward
The first step one needs to take is to
Think about Agility!
16Alberts, David S., Crisis Management: A Way Forward February 2012
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Thank you for your attention.
Questions ?