crime pattern theory - ceamos

Crime Pattern Theory

1

Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies

Expanding our Understanding ofCrime Using New ComputationalStrategies

Part 3

2


Crime Generators

• Channel large numbers of people past a set ofcriminal opportunities.

• Some potential offenders are mixed into groupsof people passing the opportunities.

• Crimes occur opportunistically.

3


• Channel large numbers of people past a set ofcriminal opportunities.

• Some potential offenders are mixed into groupsof people passing the opportunities.


Crime Attractors• Attract strongly motivated offenders intending

to commit a crime.• Attraction is created by an ecological label.• Offenders may travel long distances to reach an

attractor location.• Crimes often committed by area outsiders.• Offenders often follow a muti-step target search

process once they reach the attractorneighbourhood.

4


• Attract strongly motivated offenders intendingto commit a crime.

• Attraction is created by an ecological label.• Offenders may travel long distances to reach an

attractor location.• Crimes often committed by area outsiders.• Offenders often follow a muti-step target search

process once they reach the attractorneighbourhood.

0

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0100200300400500600700800900

0100200300400500600700800900

BURNABY CRIMINAL CODE CALLS 1991

N

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3

5


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0100200300400500600700800900

0100200300400500600700800900

BURNABY CRIMINAL CODE CALLS 1991

N

12

3

3D Visualization of major mall – 2001-2006(ArcScene, Kernel Density Map(12,200m))


Cross section of Crimes Across Kingsway in MT mall( Kernel Density Map)

95000

115000

135000 Metrotown Mall Across KingswayKingsway


Justin Song 10/3/2011

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Cross section of Crimes Along Kingsway in MT mall( Kernel Density Map)

75000

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Metrotown Mall Along Kingsway


-5000

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2 45 12 69 126

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Offenders' Home Location (City)(based on Metrotown Mall Centre crimes)

offenderscount

Offenders' Home Location (City)(based on Metrotown Mall Centre crimes)

offenderscount


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VANCOUVER BURNABY SURREY PORT MOODY COQUITLAM

10


Networks

• Networks of people can structure crime patterns by:▫ Changing each other’s awareness and activity spaces▫ Providing multiple starting points for criminal target searches

• Networks of interest should include:▫ Criminal Associates and Co-Offenders▫ Girlfriends or significant others▫ Family▫ Friends

• Networks can be analyzed to:▫ Identify a spatially likely suspect for a set of crimes▫ Identify a set of crimes that relate to a set of offenders▫ Understand larger crime patterns

11


• Networks of people can structure crime patterns by:▫ Changing each other’s awareness and activity spaces▫ Providing multiple starting points for criminal target searches

• Networks of interest should include:▫ Criminal Associates and Co-Offenders▫ Girlfriends or significant others▫ Family▫ Friends

• Networks can be analyzed to:▫ Identify a spatially likely suspect for a set of crimes▫ Identify a set of crimes that relate to a set of offenders▫ Understand larger crime patterns

W1 W2

H1H2

S&E1

S&E2

12


W3

H3

S&E3

W3W1

W2

H1

H2HighOccurrence

LowOccurrence

13


H1

H3

HighOccurrence

S&E

FLINTS NETWORK NODES WITH INTELLIGENCE

14


Co-Defendant Link

IMS Link

Co-Defendant & IMSLink

Focus on Prolific Offender Networks

• Analyze police and court data• Explore networks of frequent offenders• Identify prolific offenders who are also key to

keeping the network of offenders active• Target investigations on offenders who are most

important to offending capacity of the entirenetwork

• Shred network

15


• Analyze police and court data• Explore networks of frequent offenders• Identify prolific offenders who are also key to

keeping the network of offenders active• Target investigations on offenders who are most

important to offending capacity of the entirenetwork

• Shred network

Graffiti Vandal Network

16


Key Players Jailed:Network Disintegrates Vandals become less active

Secondary players can be targeted

17


A Co-Offending network meeting the legaldefinition of an Organized Crime Group

18


Source: Brantingham, Brantingham, Glaesser & Tyebi (2012) AN ANALYSIS OF RCMP ``E`` DIVISION DATA TOESTIMATE POSSIBLE CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS: FINAL DESCRIPTIVE REPORT. OTTAWA: PUBLICSAFETY CANADA.

Road NetworkAnalysis

• Ease of Movement▫ Formal road network analysis beta scores – ease of flow measurement Tells us likelihood of offender or target from Point A

to Point B on the network Tells us most likely path

• Directionality▫ Establishes resistance to movement▫ Calibrates weights of competing nodes

19


• Ease of Movement▫ Formal road network analysis beta scores – ease of flow measurement Tells us likelihood of offender or target from Point A

to Point B on the network Tells us most likely path

• Directionality▫ Establishes resistance to movement▫ Calibrates weights of competing nodes

The road network, land use and zoning as key determinants ofthe crime pattern

Research by Rob Tillyer and Patricia Brantingham

20


The road network, land use and zoning as key determinants ofthe crime pattern

Research by Rob Tillyer and Patricia Brantingham

21

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Summed residential break and enter.shp# 1# 2 - 3# 4 - 7# 8 - 11# 12 - 16

2 0 2 4 Miles

N

EW

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Residential B&E's in Burnaby, BC


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2 0 2 4 Miles

N

EW

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Residential B&E's in Burnaby, BC

22

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Main2.shp


2 0 2 4 Miles

N

EW

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Add Street Network


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Ea dwelling .shp0 - 2472.12472.1 - 4387.14387.1 - 9275.89275.8 - 224305.6


2 0 2 4 Miles

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Housing Density for EA 's

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Highdensity.shp


2 0 2 4 Miles

N

EW

S

High Density


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Highdensity.shp


2 0 2 4 Miles

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High Density

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Mainandskytrain.shpCommercialstreets .shpHighdensity.shp


2 0 2 4 Miles

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EW

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High Density and Commercial


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Mainandskytrain.shpCommercialstreets .shpHighdensity.shp


2 0 2 4 Miles

N

EW

S

High Density and Commercial

Land Use analysis• Criminality of land use mixtures

▫ Is a pub near a high school more problem than a pub near ahospital?

▫ Is a school near a parking lot more problem than a schoolnear a bank?

▫ Is a convenience store more problem next to a school or abar or a hospital?

• Crime fields of nodal uses▫ How far will a thief travel to reach a convenience store, a

super market, a shopping centre?▫ How far will a customer travel to reach a drug market or a

prostitution stroll?• Housing mix

▫ What blend of different housing forms maximizes orminimizes criminal event volumes?

29


• Criminality of land use mixtures▫ Is a pub near a high school more problem than a pub near a

hospital?▫ Is a school near a parking lot more problem than a school

near a bank?▫ Is a convenience store more problem next to a school or a

bar or a hospital?• Crime fields of nodal uses

▫ How far will a thief travel to reach a convenience store, asuper market, a shopping centre?

▫ How far will a customer travel to reach a drug market or aprostitution stroll?

• Housing mix▫ What blend of different housing forms maximizes or

minimizes criminal event volumes?

A Conceptual Model for Anticipating CrimeDisplacement


A Conceptual Model for Anticipating CrimeDisplacementPatricia L. BrantinghamandPaul J BrantinghamICURSSimon Fraser University

Displacement Type

Geographic Temporal OtherNon-

ConfrontationCrimes

OtherConfrontation

Crimes

Non-CriminalActivity

Full-time Burglars

SpecificGoods

Oriented

High High High High Low

Non-SpecificGoods

Oriented

High High High Low Low

Part-time Burglars

Adults with HighCommitment

Moderate Low Moderate Low Low

Adults with LowCommitment

Low Low Low Low Moderate

Juveniles withHigh

Commitment

Low Moderate Moderate Low Low



Brantinghams’ Displacement Model (1984)The Burglar’s Choice


Displacement Type

Geographic Temporal OtherNon-

ConfrontationCrimes

OtherConfrontation

Crimes

Non-CriminalActivity

Full-time Burglars

SpecificGoods

Oriented

High High High High Low

Non-SpecificGoods

Oriented

High High High Low Low

Part-time Burglars


Moderate Low Moderate Low Low

Adults with LowCommitment


Juveniles withHigh

Commitment

Low Moderate Moderate Low Low



Spatial Displacement

• Most criminal events do not displace when someintervention eliminates the opportunity

• The relatively small proportion of criminalevents that displace do so in predictable ways.


• Most criminal events do not displace when someintervention eliminates the opportunity

• The relatively small proportion of criminalevents that displace do so in predictable ways.

Journey to Crime Most crimes are committed opportunistically as a result of the offender

discovering the opportunity in the course of routine, non-criminalactivities

Crime trips are short, and occur in the offender’s home neighborhoodor some adjacent area.

Crime trips that leave an offender’s home neighbourhood travel toother similar neighourhoods or to some wider activity node – somecrime attractor or crime generator.

Crime trips by offenders living in the same neighbourhood tend to bevectored in the same direction.

Crime trip distances vary with the type of crime in question.

Crime trip distances vary with the age of the offender, increasing as theoffender ages.

Crime trip distances vary with social class, increasing as social classincreases.


Most crimes are committed opportunistically as a result of the offenderdiscovering the opportunity in the course of routine, non-criminalactivities

Crime trips are short, and occur in the offender’s home neighborhoodor some adjacent area.

Crime trips that leave an offender’s home neighbourhood travel toother similar neighourhoods or to some wider activity node – somecrime attractor or crime generator.

Crime trips by offenders living in the same neighbourhood tend to bevectored in the same direction.

Crime trip distances vary with the type of crime in question.

Crime trip distances vary with the age of the offender, increasing as theoffender ages.

Crime trip distances vary with social class, increasing as social classincreases.

Aggregate Directionality Offenders Metro Vancouver


Displacement Implications Journey to Crime• Criminal activity will displace the shortest possible distance within

the neighbourhood.

• Criminal activity that displaces from the immediate neighbourhoodwill displace to the next neighbourhood offering a similar settingand adequate supply of opportunities.

• Criminal activity will displace outside the neighbourhood in thedirection of a major activity node, often the CBD.

• The social and demographic characteristics of the neighbourhood ingeneral will set limits on the distance criminal activity will displacefrom the original neighbourhood to other neighbourhoods.

• Criminal activity is unlikely to displace outside the neighbourhoodto areas of substantially different character except to crimegenerator and crime attractor nodes.


• Criminal activity will displace the shortest possible distance withinthe neighbourhood.

• Criminal activity that displaces from the immediate neighbourhoodwill displace to the next neighbourhood offering a similar settingand adequate supply of opportunities.

• Criminal activity will displace outside the neighbourhood in thedirection of a major activity node, often the CBD.

• The social and demographic characteristics of the neighbourhood ingeneral will set limits on the distance criminal activity will displacefrom the original neighbourhood to other neighbourhoods.

• Criminal activity is unlikely to displace outside the neighbourhoodto areas of substantially different character except to crimegenerator and crime attractor nodes.

Paths and Barriers

• Road networks and transit systems channel activity in general andcriminal activity in particular into specific, narrow lines ofmovement.

• Destination points create crime generators by channelling largenumbers of people into some neighbourhoods and not others.

• The permeability of a neighbourhood defined in terms of its pathconnectivity sets limits on the likelihood that an outside offenderwill enter the neighbourhood to search for targets.

• Topographical and built features of the environment form barriersthat prevent movement between adjacent areas.

• Social differences create barriers to penetration of neighbourhoodsby outsiders.


• Road networks and transit systems channel activity in general andcriminal activity in particular into specific, narrow lines ofmovement.

• Destination points create crime generators by channelling largenumbers of people into some neighbourhoods and not others.

• The permeability of a neighbourhood defined in terms of its pathconnectivity sets limits on the likelihood that an outside offenderwill enter the neighbourhood to search for targets.

• Topographical and built features of the environment form barriersthat prevent movement between adjacent areas.

• Social differences create barriers to penetration of neighbourhoodsby outsiders.

Crime clustering on arterial and collector roads


Displacement ImplicationsPaths and Barriers

• Crime will displace toward and along traffic arterials.

• Crime will displace along traffic arterials in the direction of somemajor activity node.

• Crime will only displace off a traffic arterial into neighbourhoodsthat have permeable, predictable and highly connected internal pathnetworks.

• Major traffic barriers also constitute barriers to crime displacement.

• Crime displacement along a rapid transit system is confined to areasclose to the transit stations.

• Crime will not displace into neighbourhoods that are substantiallydifferent in character from the offender’s home neighbourhood.


• Crime will displace toward and along traffic arterials.

• Crime will displace along traffic arterials in the direction of somemajor activity node.

• Crime will only displace off a traffic arterial into neighbourhoodsthat have permeable, predictable and highly connected internal pathnetworks.

• Major traffic barriers also constitute barriers to crime displacement.

• Crime displacement along a rapid transit system is confined to areasclose to the transit stations.

• Crime will not displace into neighbourhoods that are substantiallydifferent in character from the offender’s home neighbourhood.

Crime Generators

• Crime generators produce crime by channellinglarge numbers of people past a set of criminalopportunities.

• Some potential offenders are mixed into thepeople gathered at generator locations.



• Crime generators produce crime by channellinglarge numbers of people past a set of criminalopportunities.

• Some potential offenders are mixed into thepeople gathered at generator locations.


Displacement ImplicationsCrime Generators

• Criminal activity associated with a crimegenerator is unlikely to displace.

• Potential offenders will be deflected into non-criminal activity.


• Criminal activity associated with a crimegenerator is unlikely to displace.

• Potential offenders will be deflected into non-criminal activity.

Crime Attractors• Crime attractors are places to which strongly motivated, intending

criminal offenders are attracted because of opportunities for crime.

• The attraction is created by an ecological label, often supplementedby the intending offender’s personal past history, establishing thatparticular location as a known place to go for some specific kind ofcrime.

• Strongly motivated offenders will travel relatively long distances insearch of a target.

• Crimes in such locations are often committed by area outsiders.

• Offenders engaging in crime at crime attractor locations are likely toengage in a staged target search process in the vicinity of the crimeattractor.


• Crime attractors are places to which strongly motivated, intendingcriminal offenders are attracted because of opportunities for crime.

• The attraction is created by an ecological label, often supplementedby the intending offender’s personal past history, establishing thatparticular location as a known place to go for some specific kind ofcrime.

• Strongly motivated offenders will travel relatively long distances insearch of a target.

• Crimes in such locations are often committed by area outsiders.

• Offenders engaging in crime at crime attractor locations are likely toengage in a staged target search process in the vicinity of the crimeattractor.

Crime Attractor


Crime Attractors DisplacementImplications

• Criminal activity at crime attractors is likely to bedisplaced, in the first instance, into the neighbourhoodsurrounding the attractor.

• Criminal activity is likely to be displaced back into theoffender’s home neighbourhood rather than to nearbysimilar neighbourhoods.

• Criminal activity is likely to be displaced to otherimportant attractor nodes.


• Criminal activity at crime attractors is likely to bedisplaced, in the first instance, into the neighbourhoodsurrounding the attractor.

• Criminal activity is likely to be displaced back into theoffender’s home neighbourhood rather than to nearbysimilar neighbourhoods.

• Criminal activity is likely to be displaced to otherimportant attractor nodes.

A process for predictingdisplacement locations


A process for predictingdisplacement locationsAnalogous to Hot Spot prediction

Analyze the character of theintervention site.

Is it a crime attractor, a crime generator or crimeneutral?

If a pure crime generator, little displacement islikely.

If a crime attractor, a crime neutral site or amixed attractor-generator site somedisplacement is possible.


Is it a crime attractor, a crime generator or crimeneutral?

If a pure crime generator, little displacement islikely.

If a crime attractor, a crime neutral site or amixed attractor-generator site somedisplacement is possible.

Analyze intervention neighborhood

Analyse the social, cultural, economiccharacteristics of the intervention target’sneighbourhood. Social area analysis

Topological neighbourhood analysis

Identify other neighbourhoods with similarcharacteristics. Map the similarneighbourhoods.


Analyse the social, cultural, economiccharacteristics of the intervention target’sneighbourhood. Social area analysis

Topological neighbourhood analysis

Identify other neighbourhoods with similarcharacteristics. Map the similarneighbourhoods.

Analyse characteristics of the probabledisplaced offenders.

Utilise information from planning and movement geographyliteratures to estimate a likely maximum range of movement forthe displaced offender group.

Identify neighbourhoods from the ‘similar neighbourhoods’map that fall within this activity range.

If site is a crime attractor, identify probable homeneighbourhoods of displaced offenders. Utilise: police information on home neighbourhoods of arrested offenders,

planning department information on home location of site users ingeneral.


Utilise information from planning and movement geographyliteratures to estimate a likely maximum range of movement forthe displaced offender group.

Identify neighbourhoods from the ‘similar neighbourhoods’map that fall within this activity range.

If site is a crime attractor, identify probable homeneighbourhoods of displaced offenders. Utilise: police information on home neighbourhoods of arrested offenders,

planning department information on home location of site users ingeneral.

Analyse land uses.

• Identify major activity nodes.• Weight the activity nodes utilising some

combined volume and distance measures.▫ Gravity potential▫ Hierarchical diffusion

• Rank activity nodes in terms of weightedimportance.


• Identify major activity nodes.• Weight the activity nodes utilising some

combined volume and distance measures.▫ Gravity potential▫ Hierarchical diffusion

• Rank activity nodes in terms of weightedimportance.

Analyse the streetnetwork.

Identify arterial roads flowing most directly from thepolice intervention location toward the major activitynodes using some measure such as the beta statistic.

Identify neighbourhoods from the “similarneighbourhood” map that are characterised by highentry permeability.▫ White (1990) is likely approach.▫ Johnson and associates are developing additional permeability

measurements – watch for new technical publications


Identify arterial roads flowing most directly from thepolice intervention location toward the major activitynodes using some measure such as the beta statistic.

Identify neighbourhoods from the “similarneighbourhood” map that are characterised by highentry permeability.▫ White (1990) is likely approach.▫ Johnson and associates are developing additional permeability

measurements – watch for new technical publications

Analyse transportation network.

• Identify major entry and exit points.• Identify search ranges around each entry and

exit point.▫ There is a crime risk zone around rapid transit

stations in North America that start ~50 metersout from the station and may extend for additional200 meters (Chicago, Vancouver studies)


• Identify major entry and exit points.• Identify search ranges around each entry and

exit point.▫ There is a crime risk zone around rapid transit

stations in North America that start ~50 metersout from the station and may extend for additional200 meters (Chicago, Vancouver studies)

Combine Analyses and Take Action

• Combine these analyses to identify specificpotential displacement sites.

• Rank order on basis of combined likelihoodscore

• Provide intelligence on known offenders whomight be displaced to police units responsiblefor most highly ranked displacement sites

• Provide crime prevention advice to residents ofdisplacement areas.


• Combine these analyses to identify specificpotential displacement sites.

• Rank order on basis of combined likelihoodscore

• Provide intelligence on known offenders whomight be displaced to police units responsiblefor most highly ranked displacement sites

• Provide crime prevention advice to residents ofdisplacement areas.

crime pattern theory - ceamos

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