crime analysis and the public

www.cityofshawnee.org

Crime Analysis and the Public

Susan Wernicke

Crime Analyst

Shawnee Police Department


CRIME ANALYSIS:What do you think of?


Lots of DATA?


Really Neat Maps?


Crime Info for the Public?


Lots of Computers?


Fancy charts and graphs(that no one really understands – except maybe the analyst)

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5

10

15

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Hour of Day


Something Complex ?(that you don’t want to think about on a Friday morning at 11am when you are attending a class only to qualify for the fleece sweatshirt)

ANALYSIS Main Entry: anal·y·sis

Pronunciation: &-'na-l&-s&sFunction: nounInflected Form(s): plural anal·y·ses /-"sEz/Etymology: New Latin, from Greek, from analyein to break up

1 : separation of a whole into its component parts2 : proof of a mathematical proposition by assuming the result and

deducing a valid statement by a series of reversible steps 3 : an examination of a complex, its elements, and their relations 4 : a method in philosophy of resolving complex expressions into

simpler or more basic ones


“CSI – Crime Scene Investigation”


The District (getting closer!)


Well, what is it ? A systematic process of:

Collecting

Collating (organizing)

Analyzing

Disseminating

timely, useful, and accurate information

That describes

crime patterns, crime trends, & potential suspects.


Imagine This….


But

Sometimes

I

Feel

Like

This


Types of Analysis in law enforcement Crime Analysis-who’s doing what to whom

focus on crimes against persons and property Intelligence Analysis-who’s doing what with whom

focus on relationships between persons/organizations Operations Analysis-ascertain how the agency is using

internal resources focus on personnel deployment and workload distribution

patterns Investigative Analysis-specialized type of analysis used

in unusual/serial homicide cases examines why the offender is doing it.

THINK FBI--FUN STUFF!


Three types of CRIME analysis:

Administrative - - provides economic, geographic, and social information to administrators (I.E. Grant writing, research projects, city council reports, feasibility studies, etc.)

Tactical--assist operations on specific and immediate crime problems--eliminate crime series.

Strategic--concerned with long-range problems and reducing the overall crime trends


The job of a crime analystIdentify patterns and trends

Inform the patrol officers, investigators & the public.

Try to predict where and when the criminal is going to strike next.

Work with other members of the department, other city agencies, and the public to develop strategies to eradicate problems.


But what are we REALLY trying to do?


Most Crime….Random

UnpredictableUnconnected

A man seizes the opportunity to steal a laptop left unattended.

An argument in a bar erupts into a fight.

A man is killed in a drug deal gone awry.

A date rape.

Some bullies steal a classmate's hat on the playground.

A bored housewife shoplifts a pair of earrings.

A feud between neighbors leads to a rock thrown through a window.


But SOME crime…Not isolated - TARGETED

Emergent patterns - PREDICTABLESpecific targets - CONNECTED

The gas station robber who holds up a female clerk on Friday nights

The rapist who stalks women in parks in the eastern half of the city

The pigeon-drop con artist

The repeat auto thief

The group of kids that smashes car windows every weekend

The purse snatcher

The serial killer


Why does it work?


But before you can find the

“abnormal”, you have to know

what is NORMAL!


Know what’s normal & explainable

To know when something is abnormal in your area, you first need to know what is NORMAL!

How many burglaries in area “X” are too many? Is “1” a week too many? Is “20” a week normal? Low? High?

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

Sector 1 3 3 2 6

Sector 2 3 2 1 1

Sector 3 2 1 3 2

Sector 4 2 3 2 1


Determine if the incidents are cyclic, seasonal, or holiday related

More vandalism? More loud noise complaints? More public drunkenness? More loud parties?


Know what’s normal & explainable What if analysis reveals that 30% of the cars taken from

the mall are white Fords, GMs or Chevys during the evening shift?

What are the three most popular colors of vehicles? White, black and red

What are the 3 most popular makes of cars? Ford, GM and Chevy.

When is the mall open? 1000-2200.

When is evening shift? 1400-2200

WHI 25

BLK 13

RED 10

MAR 7

SIL 7

BLU 6

GRN 5

GLD 4

GRY 4

ONG 4

YEL 3

BRO 2

DBL 2

BGE 1

DGR 1

LBL 1

PNK 1

TAN 1

TPE 1

Grand Total98


Know what’s not normal, but CAN be explained

Influx of crime due to circus/carnival in town Influx of crime due to Olympics, World Fair or

other “one time” event (Old Shawnee Days!) Influx of crime due to unseasonably

warm/cold weather


Geographic concentration

Specific/recurring MO patterns

. . . looking for similarities and related facts.

How do you find the abnormal?(that cannot be explained)


Crime Pattern Detection


And when you find something

ABNORMAL

or

UNEXPLAINABLE

….then what?


Analyze the discovery! What is the crime being committed?

Auto Burglaries What location is being targeted?

Health Club parking lots Who is being targeted?

Customers – specifically women What is the “MO”?

Smash window / take purse When are the events occurring?

4:30pm to 6:30 pm, weekdays


Now, ask questions…Profile! Where are my other health clubs?

Lady of America Fitness, SM Pkwy & Quivira Do I have victims there?

No What makes Club LaFemme / health clubs an attractive

target? Sense of safety No men to confront the suspect Large volume of cars in lot Targets likely to have items of value Customers in/out continually – singular focus

Are other cities experiencing similar incidents? (More on this question later in the presentation)


Next, formulate a plan… The TARGET profile provides information for

RESPONSES Crime prevention strategies Tactical responses (covert / overt)

Objective:

Stop the occurrence of identified crime patterns

Determine where and when the next incident will occur


Crime Prevention StrategiesWork with identified targets to:

Deter the crimeEliminate targets, make them less appealing, use of decoy

Detect the crime (in progress)Potential witness awareness, alarms, visibility

Delay the crime (to allow for response)Target hardening – locks, solid doors, laminated glass, etc.

Displace the crimeMore likely to catch “him” if he is out of his element/

comfort zone


Tactical ResponsesTeam policing

(scheduled units)

Directed patrol (special unit or OT)

Task force efforts (team created for project)


But what about….


All Those Neat Maps?!?


Tools in our tool box Maps (geographic

display) Computers / Data /

Internet Reports Tickets & Court

Records School attendance

records Probation / Parole

Information Census Information Building Permits Word of Mouth –

Officers, Offenders Etc., etc., etc.


But WHO is this all for?


Crime Analysis Customers Patrol Officers Detectives Command Staff

City Council Public Safety City employees

Citizens*Daytime (business)

*Nighttime (residents)

Officers

Community

Governing bodies


Crime Analyst Relationships

With other city service departmentsHealth/Environment Plan Review

Neighborhood Preservations Engineering Services

Community Corrections Traffic Services

City/County GIS Analysts

WHY?To promote working information sharing to reduce crime

and enhance public safety, security, and community preservation--everyone must work together!


Crime Analyst RelationshipsWith the community

Public’s need for access to police information

Community policing efforts focuses on establishing a partnership--police and the community

*identify and solve community problems

Citizens receiving police data must be provided assistance in analyzing and interpreting the data

*provide comparisons, information on context to allow citizens to make informed, logical decisions


Working for the Public*Distinguish “data” from “information”

*Explain how to read reports, maps, etc

*Follow-up on uses!

Contact citizen when info is used inappropriately!

*Be sure they understand the terms you are using.

Robbery vs. Burglary

What’s a “larceny”?

What falls under “Sex Offenses”?

*Define time frame, location, and type of crime


PUBLIC ACCESS TO POLICE INFORMATION

Our relationship with the citizens, business community, and neighborhoods

Provide information for those looking to move into a residence, area, or neighborhood

Provide information on crime frequencies, rates, locations, to investors proposing businesses

Provide Analytical and graphics support to the community; direct community education and engagement

CITIZENS

COMMUNITY

BUSINESS


Evaluating the results Is someone in custody? Was there a real change as intended? What proportion of that change results

from the initiative attempted as opposed to coincidental events?

Were there unintended consequences? Were the results cost effective? Future responses to the same / similar

problems are often based on the results received from prior projects


What’s Next ?REGIONAL CRIME

ANALYSIS

AND

REGIONAL CRIME MAPPING

Regional, multi-agency crime analysis unitsKCRAGIS, ISYS (STRIKER)


What’s Next ?

Crime Information all publicly accessible as information, not “data”Examples: Kasper & KBI sex offenders

PUBLIC INFORMATION DATABASES


What’s Next ?

Crime Analysis used to forecast events Crime Prevention used to prepare

possible “victims” / prevent the crime from occurring.

UNION BETWEEN

CRIME ANALYSIS

&

CRIME PREVENTION


What’s Next ?

*PRIVACY ISSUES \ MAPPING ON THE WEB *REGISTERED SEX OFFENDER NOTIFICATION *POLICE/CORRECTIONS RELATIONSHIPS *CERTIFICATION *STATE/REGIONAL ASSOCIATIONS

OTHER ISSUES

IN

CRIME ANALYSIS


Contact Information

Susan C. Wernicke

Crime Analyst

Shawnee Police Department

(913) 631-2155 x305

crime analysis and the public

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