Researcher

Zahid Hussain

ERP # 06738

EMBA-1 (Section-I)

(January, 2016)

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SECURITY OF CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR

‘If ‘One Belt, One Road’ is like a symphony involving and benefiting every country, then

construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the sweet melody of the

symphony’s first movement.’

—Wang Yi, China’s foreign Minister

CPEC 2500 Km long

• Land route b/w

Xinkiang China and

Gawadar Pakistan

• Passing along

Kashgar, Tashkugan

and Pir Ali (400 Km)

on the Chinese side

• Khunjarab Pass,

KKH, Hawalian and

Gawadar (2500 km)

on Pakistan side.

• The corridor

package is planned

to host

Road network

Railway network

Oil and gas pipeline

Fiber optics.

THE CPEC ROUTE

Hunza

Havalian

Kashghar

Gawadar Port

Quetta

Tashqugan

Rathodero

Karachi

Kunjrab Pass

• The $46 billion ’ CPEC’ is a media favourite , with the doves calling it a ‘game changer’ for the country and

the hawks are unrelentingly trying to show it as ’China Punjab Economic Corridor’. These two extreme

positions are making the project all the more vulnerable to the hostile interventions.

• The corridor passes through difficult terrain features of Kara Kurum , Himalaya and other mountaineous

features with diverse and sometime hostile demographic make up. Relegious elements who should have

been the gurantee for security are viewed as the greatest threat for CPEC. Similarly the perceived

benifactors i.e. the Baloch youth is also not on board. This situation makes the complete plan a security

nightmare.

• Security is a costly affair and needs complete ownership by the public at large. Army led security appratus

suitably reenforced by the Chinese technological survillance system will ensure proper security for the

businesses on the corridor. Following are some of the security measures required:-

Important chock points along the corrridor be identified and occupied by the security forces.

Well regulated and smooth flow of traffic by the Highway Police will provide inbuilt security .

Effective satellite and ariel cover of the corrridor should be ensured with effective support from China.

Public ownership of the project will act as a force multipllier for security of the corridor.

Positive media image about the security situation along the corridor is a blessing for all stakeholders

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Geographical Bottlenecks along the Route

Western Route Central Route Eastern Route

KKH till Hawalian KKH till Hawalian KKH till Hawalian

Indus crossing at Attock Indus crossing at Multan Crossing over River Jehlum

Area b/wTank and Loralai Area b/w Rojan and Rathodero Crossing over River Chenab

Lak Pass Quetta Area b/w Larkana and Khuzdar Crossing over River Ravi

Area b/w Qalat and Khuzdat Area b/w Wad and Panjgoor Crossing over River Indus at

Hyderabad

Area b/w Panjgoor and Turbat Area b/w Panjgoor and Turbat Crossing over Hub River

Buzee Pass Makran

Area b/w Koh Murad and Pasni Area b/w Turbat and Gawadar Area b/w Pasni and Gawadar

Purpose of the Research

Purpose of the project is to study the paradigm of security along the ‘China - Pakistan

Economic Corridor’. Analyze the likely situation and recommend measures to improve

the security situation

Scope of the Research

To study, analyze and make recommendations for improvements in security

situation along the route, at the assembly areas and service areas.

Research

• Secondary research was to emphasize on the historical evidences and threat

scenario, whereas the

• Primary research was to focus on the views and fears of stake holders and

recommendations by the security experts.

SEMINAR ON “IMPACT OF CPEC ON GB”

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: an

assessment of potential threats and constraints by

Safdar Sial at Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies

SECONDRY RESEARCH

EXTERNAL PLAYERS VIEWS ON SECURITY PARADIGM OF CPEC

• Chinese are skeptical about the rising threat of Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement in

Sinkiang Province of China.

• This terrorist organization has its connections with TPP Pakistan

• Gawadar is emerging as a center of global marine activity connecting the land locked

central Asia and chocked China with rest of the world.

• US being the sole super power feels left out of this important power and economic loop.

• US also views the huge investment by China on CPEC in the region as a counter move to

break away from the ‘Golden Triangle’

• Narendra Modi during his visit to China raised his objections over the corridor

• India may also have apprehensions over China's access to the sea, and has invested

significantly in the nearby Port of Chabahar

• Indian objection will be overtly manifest in raising the disputed status of GB & AJK

• The Russians are looking at the CPEC in the larger context of ‘Eurasian Block’; connecting

Russia, China, India and Iran through the CPEC.

• They take it as a counter balance to EU and US.

• The Russians are of the view that US can play dirty in causing security threat to the CPEC

• Iran’s historic nuclear deal with the P5+1,has opened up new possibilities.

• With Iran in the loop, China can double down on its access to Iranian oil.

• The decades-old dream of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline can now be fully realized.

• CPEC will provide the country with much needed accessibility to the east.

• Afghanistan is a close ally of US and India and toes their views about CPEC.

• Afghanistan sees it an opportunity to get a shorter route to Arabian Sea through Gawadar.

• Afghan intelligence agencies exert influence on separatist elements in Balochistan and TTP

SECONDRY RESEARCH

INTERNAL SECURITY CHALLENGES TO THE CPEC

Religious Terrorist

Elements

• TPP and its allied organizations are the main threat.

• Heavy blow has been served to the TPP but any slackness can

escalate the situation to a dangerous consequence.

Nationalist Terrorist

Elements

• These elements play with the sentiments of the public on racial

and geographic ground and try to apply this tactics as a violent

means towards a political end. BLA, BNM, Geeay Sindh.

• CPEC is to pass through the areas influenced by these elements.

Sectarian Strife

• The Saudi -Iran rivalry is the main reason of sectarian strife in

Pakistan. It is a turf war, foreign sponsored and foreign funded.

• The CPEC runs along these sectarian fault lines.

Feudal Rivalries• Feudal rivalries’ a times take awkward turn and cause unrest at

limited scale and limited geographical boundaries.

• Southern Punjab and Sindh is a fertile soil for such feuds.

Dacoits/thefts• Small scale thefts and deceits for financial gains are getting

more sophisticated in scope and dimension.

• CPEC too will be prone to such activities

Political unrest

• The cold blooded murder of Benazir Bhutto caused a

nationwide chaos.

• This author was deputed to clear National Highway between

Steel Mills and Thatta and saw the mayhem caused by the

political unrest translating into arson and looting

Category Regions

Punjab/Sindh Balochistan KPK GB/AK Total

Oil and Gas 4 - - - 4

Containerized logistics 9 2 3 2 16

Open trucks logistics 10 4 6 2 22

Passenger service 2 2 1 3 8

Total 25 8 10 7

G-Total 50

PRIMARY RESEARCH

Transport Owners

Category Regions

Punjab/Sindh Balochistan KPK GB Total

Oil and Gas 3 - - - 3

Trade/Investment 9 2 3 - 14

Provision of Services 5 6 6 2 19

Transportation 2 - - 2 4

19 8 9 4

Total 40

Traders

DATA ANALYSIS

• Colonel Aqil Malik ® served in Pak Army for 30 years in various capacities in the Supply Chain

Management System (Ordinance Branch) of the Army.

• Today his business conglomerate Shaheen Freight Services is a known brand in Pakistan and provides

inland logistic services to every corner of the country and outbound freight services to Afghanistan.

• It is matter of utmost pride for Shaheen Freight Services that the firm was amongst top hundred tax

payers of Pakistan for the Tax year 2013 and has been awarded Prime Minister's Privilege and Honour

Card for Tax year 2013.

• His unique positioning as ‘Director Operations’ gives him the opportunity to assess the security situation

on daily bases and his views on security are based on his waste experience in operational planning and

conduct of operations on all the major highways in the country. Shaheen Freight Services is also geared

up to make its impact on the PCEC (Pak-China Economic Corridor) .

COLONEL® AQIL MALIK

‘DIRECTOR OPERATIONS’ SHAHEEN FREIGHT SERVICES

Answer -2:

• I conducted the initial assessment of the CPEC route during the month of June 2015 by

traveling by road till Pak-China border (Khunjarab Pass) and back.

• It was a fruitful experience and I was able to meet friends along the route and got an insight

into the prevailing security situation. I was encouraged by the overall security situation and I

am encouraged to participate in the activities .

• Our presence is already there and we are presently providing supplies to the KKH expansion

project at Dassu KPK.

• The presence of various security agencies along the route along with heavy flow of traffic

provides security to the route. Isolated incidents can happen but then it is the responsibility of

the media not to blow it out of proportion.

• I was not impressed by the expansion project of KKH, it is already getting congested and will

face problem in accommodating additional traffic. The frequent stops and disruptions also

invite security problems. I hope and believe the Government is cognizant of the situation and

things will improve.

Question 2: How do you define security threat along the China-Pakistan

Economic Corridor?

MAJOR ® HASSAN RAZA

GM ‘ CROWN SECURITY SERVICES’

• Major ® Hassan Raza General Manager of ‘ Crown Security Services” is an

imminent security expert who has waste experience of security including

security on the wheels and on the ports.

• During his 25 years meritorious service the officer performed various security

related operations in Balochistan and served in NLC at Karachi port .

• After retirement in 1996 , he remained associated with logistics company MITS

as Security Manager on the wheels.

• In 1999 he formed his own security company ‘Crown Security Services” which

provides security to the vital national assets including Port Qasim and Indus

Motors.

Answer:

• The security treat along the CPEC is multidimensional and intertwined; the

terrorists can operate independently and can launch a coordinated attack. It

depends who is using whom and who are pulling the strings.

• All the terrorists are ‘Hum Nawala Hum Payala ‘ and bitter enemies of today can

be seen friends of tomorrow and vice-versa. This phenomenon can be understood

by a graph as under:-

Question 2: How do you define security threat along the China-Pakistan Economic

Corridor?

DIG ® IMTIAZ UL HAQ

CHIEF SECURITY OFFICER FOR CHINESE WORKING ON KKH PROJECT

• DIG Imtiaz ul Haq served Pak Army as an infantry and Intelligence officer for 28 years

and has a waste experience of Strategic Security, Security Intelligence and Operational

Security.

• He is a graduate of the prestigious Command & Staff College Quetta and National

University of Modern Languages Islamabad. Served as Intelligence officer in MI,

Commandant Makran Scouts FC Balochistan, Chief Instructor of Anti-terrorist Training

Centre Mardan.

• After retirement in 2010, he joined the Pakistan Police as DIG KKH. Responsible for

security of Chinese engineers and workers employed on the expansion project of KKH.

• Based on his knowledge of the terrain, cultures and security challenges DIG Imtiaz ul

Haq is immensely suited for discussion on Security for China Pakistan Economic

Corridor.

Answer 5:

• Strengths.

Respect for China and Chinese as tested friends

Economic gains for the areas in route and

Business/employment opportunities.

• Weaknesses.

Religious extremism caused by mudrassa culture and

Separatist movements in Balochistan.

Question 5. You have had a waste experience of serving on the security panel of FC

Balochistan, Highway Police and Military Intelligence. In your opinion what are our

security strengths and weaknesses along the CPEC?

•Secure route is the one on which the transporters and traders are willing to participate in the

conduct of their operations and make profits. The transporters avoid routes where the security

situations are not satisfactory.

•The security threat along the CPEC is multidimensional and intertwined; the terrorists can

operate independently and can launch a coordinated attack. It depends who is using whom

and who are pulling the strings. All the terrorists are ‘Hum Nawala Hum Payala ‘ and bitter

enemies of today can be seen friends of tomorrow and vice-versa.

CONCLUSIONS

CONCLUSIONS

• Our response option needs to be integrative of all the elements of National

Security with the ‘public ownership’ taking the central stage for provision of

security to CPEC.

• The religious elements need to show tolerance towards other sects and the

hate speech and hate material needs to be stopped

• Most of the transport owners in Pakistan are planning to ply open trucks

logistics ( 44%), followed by containerized logistics ( 32%), passenger service

(16%) and the least interest is in oil and gas sector (8%).

• The areas falling in the geographical limits of Balochistan are the primary

security concern (62%) for the transporters and traders.

CONCLUSIONS

• Terrorist attack is the most dangerous threat (53%) perceived by the transport

owners and bomb blast is the least dangerous treat (6%) considered by the

respondents.

• TTP and its allied franchises are considered by majority (52%) as primary threat to

CPEC. Whereas BLA stands second on the dangerous list of threat to CPEC

according to 26% of the total respondents.

• Most of the threat spots are along the western Route (Panjgoor,Turbat and Zohb).

Whereas, Western route is considered the most economical by most of the

respondents (56%).

• Western route is not a choice route (18%), in spite of being economical due to

security concerns.

CONCLUSIONS

• Destruction of vehicle and driver (58%) is taken the most serious threat by the

respondents.

• The respondents believe that a host of reasons (34%) are responsible for our

existing state and no single reason can be identified.

• Most of the transport owners (68%) trust the Army for CPEC security.

• Formation of Pak-China joint security force for the security of CPEC was the

majority’s demand. The respondents believe that for better security even the

hostile countries should be made stakeholders.

• Cooperation with law enforcement agencies figured out to be the top priority

contribution by the transport owners and traders.

• Public/ political ownership in the form of effective legislation and proportionate

representation of all five federating units at the BOD.

• Organization of a joint Pak-China security mechanism to ensure effective

surveillance of the corridor and quick response force to effectively respond to any

threat in the quickest possible timeframe.

• Establishment of CPEC Security Authority headed by Pakistan Army on the lines of

ASF to coordinate and implement a coordinated response by various security

agencies.

• Identify VAs (Vital Areas) and VPs (Vital Points) along the routes and accordingly

plan force deployment.

RECOMMENDATIONS

• National response to curb religious militancy and sectarian violence.

• Graduated opening of the corridor routes starting from eastern route to central to

western routes.

• Effective traffic control system to regulate traffic which provides an inbuilt security

to the traffic on the routes.

• Effective law and justice system to ensure quick disposal of the violation cases.

• Effective measures to make the hostile foreign countries as stakeholders in the

smooth conduct of businesses along CPEC.

RECOMMENDATIONS

S.N

Activity TIMELINE

Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 w18

1 Project topic

approval

submitted

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2 Project topic

approved

© ©

3 Project TORs

finalization

©

4 Questionnaire

Development

©

5 Discussion with

Instructor on

Questionnaire

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6 Secondary

Research

© ©

7 Primary Research © © © © ©

8 Data Analysis © ©

9 Report Writing © ©

10 Report

Submission

©