cost of fire: a design tool methodology · 2012-03-19 · introduction! 451 fire deaths, 12,200...
TRANSCRIPT
Cost of Fire: A Design Tool MethodologyIFE Heritage Seminar
13th March 2012
Chris SalterStephen Emmitt
Dino BouchlaghemProf. Ramachandran
Civil & Building EngineeringLoughborough University
Introduction
§ 451 fire deaths, 12,200 injuries in 2008§ Department for Communities & Local Government (2010), 'Fire Statistics, United
Kingdom 2008’, Department for Communities and Local Government.
§ Fires cost the UK economy £8.3 billion in 2008§ Communities and Local Government. (2011), The Economic Cost of Fire: Estimates for
2008, DCLG Publications.
2
Fire Fatalities in the UK 1998-2008
Taken from Fire Statistics 2008, Department of Communities and Local Government
3
Cost of Fire Claims
Taken from Association of British Insurers (2009), 'Tackling Fire: A Call For Action’.
4
Cost Reductions in Fire
“Fundamentally, cost reduction is the only value we have to make our engineering better.”Torero, 2012
5
New Builds
§ Design tool aimed at new builds, not heritage structures
§ Tool could potentially be used in retro fitting but costs would be different
6
Work To Date
§ C Salter, N Bouchlaghem (2011), Fire Engineering in the UK : A UK Practitioners View, International Conference on Building Resilience.
§ C Salter, G Ramachandran, N Bouchlaghem (2011), A Cost Benefit Tool for Fire Protection Engineers : An Analysis, 2nd IRMP Conference, Glasgow University.
7
Sources of Data
8
Alarm Probability
§ Calculated from the FDR 1 results
§ Only 38.4% of records in 2005 had AFD present
§ From the filtered FDR 1 data, probability of alarm activation and raising the alarm is 74.1%
9
Does Activation Affect Damage?
10
Statistical Tests
§ Mann Whitney Statistical Test§ Data is not normally distributed
§ Proves Alarm Activation does affect final damage
11
Probability of Extinction Systems Operating
§ Only 2.8% of fires had an extinction system (2005)
§ Sprinklers most popular extinction system (59.1% of systems)
§ Focus on sprinklers - other groups not large enough for statistical analysis
12
Probability of Sprinklers Activating
13
Frequency Percent
Activated
Activated - Extinguished Fire
ActivatedActivated - Controlled Fire
Failed
Activated - Failed to Control Fire
Failed
Failed to Activate
82 14.2
115 19.9
24 4.2
357 61.8
Probability of Sprinklers Activating
§ FDR 1 records show 34.08% activation overall
§ Previous studies state sprinklers are 95.6% effective (Rutstein and Cooke, 1983, Vaidogas and Šakėnaitė, 2011)
§ However this figure is when sprinklers are activated, not overall.
14
Probability of Sprinklers Activating
§ Only 43% of fires are large enough to activate fires (Rutstein and Cooke, 1983)
§ Ramachandran states that a fire has to be 3m² before a sprinkler activates.
§ However, records show activations over 3m² are 67.8%
§ 16.8% of activations of sprinklers are under 3m²
15
Cost Data
§ 4 sources identified for cost data1. Rateable Values2. Average from FPA Database3. BCIS Tool4. Xactimate Software
16
Rateable Values
§ Measure of a properties rental value
§ Collected by Valuation Office Agency
17
Pros Cons
Split into different counties Underestimate total costs
Freely available and already calculated as £/m²
FPA Database
§ Taken from loss adjustors estimates
§ Only on incidents where a fatality happened or cost was estimated as over £100,000
18
Pros Cons
Once calculated, only needs access to FPA data periodically to update costs
Based on estimates
BCIS Tool
§ Database of costs of a new build - Collected by RICS
§ Data submitted from construction companies
19
Pros Cons
Already in £/m² Not free data
Very detailed data
Xactimate Software
20
Xactimate Software
§ Cost estimation software from Xactware
21
Pros Cons
Incredibly detailed cost breakdowns
Aimed at individual buildings, not across a building type
Updated quarterly
Costs
§ Rateable values and Xactimate discarded
§ Tool to use FPA data§ FPA and BCIS data comparison first
§ Examine the two datasets to see how they compare
22
FPA/BCIS Comparison
§ FPA - 18 categories§ 18 occupancies
§ BCIS - 8 main categories§ 414 occupancies
§ Merge BCIS occupancies to match FPA occupancies
§ FPA data costs calculated into £/m²
23
Costs
24
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Tota
l Los
s Es
timat
e (£
)
Area Damaged m2
Industrial ProcessingNon Residential -Misc
Food And DrinkRetail
WarehousesEntertainment and Culture
Permenant AgriculturalEducationReligious
Sport
Average Costs
25
Occupancy FPA Cost £/m² BCIS Cost £/m²
Industrial Processing 4,775.50 743.79
Non Residential Misc 1,405.16 1,452.21
Food and Drink 1,980.61 1,788.56
Retail 1,941.96 1,017.19
Warehouses 1,662.49 736.13
Entertainment and Culture 1,273.74 1,649.69
Permanent Agriculture 785.82 875.20
Education 1,548.64 1,564.17
Religious 1,742.79 1,696.80
Sport 1,237.01 1,397.56
Average Costs
25
Occupancy FPA Cost £/m² BCIS Cost £/m²
Industrial Processing 4,775.50 743.79
Non Residential Misc 1,405.16 1,452.21
Food and Drink 1,980.61 1,788.56
Retail 1,941.96 1,017.19
Warehouses 1,662.49 736.13
Entertainment and Culture 1,273.74 1,649.69
Permanent Agriculture 785.82 875.20
Education 1,548.64 1,564.17
Religious 1,742.79 1,696.80
Sport 1,237.01 1,397.56
Difference here seems to be
significantly different
Statistical Tests
§ T Test performed on the datasets to compare
§ Datasets are the same (to 95% certainty)
§ Either dataset can be used in the tool
26
Conclusion
§ Work still to be done
§ Complete methodology to be assembled in the next month
§ PhD to be submitted soon
27
