consumer confidence - nielsen · 2 uarter 3 2013 - global consumer confidence reort a changing...

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C EConCerns and spending intentions around the WorldQUARTER 3, 2013

2013 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 3RD EDITION

2 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report2

A CHANGING LANDSCAPEConsumer ConfidenCe improved in the u.s. and Western europe, While holding steady in most developing World markets

Global consumer confidence indexed at 94 in the third quarter, no

change from Q2 2013, and a two-point increase from the same period

last year (Q3 2012), according to consumer confidence findings from

Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what

consumers watch and buy. The Nielsen consumer confidence index

measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and

immediate spending intentions.

Consumer confidence in Europe increased three index points to 74, the

biggest quarter-on-quarter increase since Q1 2010 and an improvement

from three consecutive quarters fixed at 71. Confidence in North America

increased two index points to 98, the third consecutive quarter of

increases and hit its highest level since Q3 2007. Marginal consumer

confidence increases were reported in Latin America and Middle East/

Africa, increasing one index point each to 94 and 92, respectively,

compared to Q2. Confidence in Asia-Pacific declined one index point to

104, the first regional quarter-on-quarter decline since Q2 2012.

GLOBALLY • Global consumer confidence held steady in Q3 with an index of 94

REGIONALLY• Quarterly confidence increased in all regions except Asia-Pacific

• European confidence posted biggest increase in three years

• North American and Asia-Pacific respondents were ready to spend

• Recessionary sentiment improved in advanced and troubled economies

3Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company

CONFIDENCE IMPROVED IN 57% OF MARKETSThe Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending

Intentions, established in 2005, measures consumer confidence,

major concerns and spending intentions among more than 30,000

respondents with Internet access in 60 countries. Consumer confidence

levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism

and pessimism.

In the latest round of the survey, conducted between August 14 and

September 6, 2013, consumer confidence increased in more than half

(57%) of markets measured by Nielsen, compared to less than half

(45%) in the previous quarter. Despite declining four index points,

Indonesia (120) reported the highest consumer confidence index for the

third consecutive quarter. Seven of 10 countries reporting the highest

index scores declined in the third quarter; six hailed from Asia-Pacific.

Hungary reported the lowest index of 45, but posted a four-point

increase from Q2. Portugal reported the biggest quarter-on-quarter index

increase of 22 points for a score of 55.


ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY

The findings in this survey are based on respondents

with online access across 60 countries. While an online

survey methodology allows for tremendous scale and

global reach, it provides a perspective only on the habits

of existing Internet users, not total populations. In

developing markets where online penetration has not

reached majority potential, audiences may be younger

and more affluent than the general population of that

country. Additionally, survey responses are based on

claimed behavior, rather than actual metered data.

4 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report

-3-6

-2+4

0-1

-1

+6

-2

+3

+2

0

-1

-1

-3

+2

+4

-2

-2

+1

-5

+2

+4+5

0+8

+4+3-3+6+1+9+1

0-1

+8+1

+5

-4

+1

+2

-1

-5

+4

+3

+2

+8

-2

-13

+8

0

+22+3

+3+1

+12

84 COLO

MBIA

84 SOU

TH AFRICA

85 TURKEY 87 UN

ITED KIN

GDO

M

87 AUSTRIA 88 ISRAEL

GREECE 48

88 MEXICO

CROATIA 48

92 GERMANY

SOUTH KOREA 54

PORTUGAL 55

94 PERU

**SERBIA 56

95 CHILE

SPAIN

56

96 AUSTRALIA

UKRAINE 59

96 NORWAY

SLOVAKIA 60

97 NEW ZEALAND

FRANCE 61

97 VIETNAM

BULGARIA 63

97 SAUDI ARABIA

POLAND 66 97 CANADAROMANIA 66 97 PAKISTAN

FINLAND 68

98 SWITZERLAND

IRELAND 69

98 UNITED STATES

CZECH REPUBLIC 72

98 SINGAPORE

ESTONIA 72

101 MALAYSIA

JAPAN 74

103 DENMARK

LATVIA 76

106 HONG KONG

TAIWAN

76

109 BRAZIL

VENEZUELA 76

110 C

HINA

NETHERLA

NDS 78

111

UNITE

D ARAB EMIR

ATES

RUSSIA

80

112

THAILA

ND

ARGE

NTI

NA

80

112

INDI

A

LITH

UAN

IA

81

118

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

BELG

IUM

8

1SW

EDEN

82

EGYP

T

83

0

**SLOVENIA

47

-4

120

IN

DO

NES

IA

IND

EX

COU

NTR

Y

LESS

CONFIDENT

MORE CONFIDENT

+6

ITALY47

+4

HUN

GARY45

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, PAKISTAN ASIA-PACIFIC

94 GLOBAL

AVERAGE( 0 change from Q2-2013 )

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2013 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed

methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

**Serbia and Slovenia are new markets in Q3 2013.


60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2013 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

CONFIDENCE IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES IMPROVEDIn key developed economies, the United States saw consumer

confidence increase eight index points to 98 from the same period 12

months ago, its highest score in six years (Q3 2007) and nearing pre-

recession levels. Germany increased six index points year-on-year to 92.

Japan rose to an index of 74 from 59 in Q3 2012. France increased eight

points to 61 from 53 in Q2 2013, and the United Kingdom reported an

index of 87, the highest score since Q3 2007, up 10 points from Q3 2012.

While consumers in India and Brazil remain some of the most confident

in the world, confidence in these key growth economies continues to

show modest downward movement over the last few quarters. India

delivered a score of 112 for its third consecutive quarter of declines,

and confidence in Brazil declined one index point to 109. China and

Russia both held steady from Q2 2013 with index scores of 110 and 80,

respectively.

“Given the size and scale of these economies, it is encouraging to see

significant gains in consumer confidence within the United States and

Western Europe as we consider where we were last year and look ahead

to 2014,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge

Group, a part of Nielsen. “At the same time, we have to keep modest

developing market declines in perspective. While India is significantly off

peak optimism of 131 measured three years ago in 2010, it is still one of

the largest and most confident countries in the world, and that has an

impact on the entire region.”



advanCed eConomies: Consumer ConfidenCe is reCovering

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

2005

-Q1

2005

-Q3

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q3

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q3

2008

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2008

-Q3

2009

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2009

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2009

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2009

-Q4

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q2

2010

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2010

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2011-

Q1

2011-

Q2

2011-

Q3

2011-

Q4

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q2

2012

-Q3

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q2

2013

-Q3

JAPAN FRANCEGERMANY UNITED KINGDOMUNITED STATES

BriC eConomies: Consumer ConfidenCe is sloWing

150140130120110

10090807060

2005

-Q1

2005

-Q3

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q3

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q3

2008

-Q1

2008

-Q3

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q2

2009

-Q3

2009

-Q4

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q2

2010

-Q3

2010

-Q4

2011-

Q1

2011-

Q2

2011-

Q3

2011-

Q4

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q2

2012

-Q3

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q2

2013

-Q3

CHINAINDIA RUSSIABRAZIL

* Note: Due to a Tsunami in Japan during Q1 2011, there is no data this quarter.

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only


READy TO SPENDNielsen information shows that around the world, discretionary spending

intentions increased across all categories measured in the third quarter

compared to intentions from three months prior. Plans to buy new clothes

(38%), spend on holidays/vacations (38%), out-of-home entertainment

(35%) and home improvements (25%) increased 5 percentage points each

in the third quarter. Intentions to buy new technology products (29%)

increased 4 percentage points compared to Q2.

An intention to spend was most evident in Asia-Pacific and North America,

where discretionary spending intentions increased across all categories.

Plans to spend on holidays, new clothes, out-of-home entertainment, new

technology products and home improvements increased an average of 7

percentage points in the third quarter.

“In line with confidence findings, it is not surprising to see that consumers

are planning to increase their spending across all industries measured,

which will be encouraging to many retailers as they get ready for the end-

of-year holiday season,” said Dr. Bala. “However, it’s going to be a slow

climb for economic conditions in the global economy to recover, and there

is no sign of rapid expansion around the corner. Additionally, it remains

to be seen if consumer concerns potentially caused by the recent U.S.

government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis will have a lasting effect on

consumer confidence.”


NEW CLOTHES

NEW TECHNOLOGYPRODUCTS

HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS

OUT-OF-HOMEENTERTAINMENT

61% 43% 31%

50% 47% 21%

62% 42% 29%

64% 28% 24%

43%45% 59%

36%35%37%

29%41%33%

46%37%56%

+5-5+7

+5+2+7

+7+9+5

+4-1+4

+11+9+3

+7+14+2

+10+10+7

+12-10+2

51%

35%

33%

48%

+3

+2

+3

035% +5

38% +5

29% +4

38% +5

Q3 2013 intentions to spend inCreased, and so did aCtions to save


PERCENT SPENDINgSPARE CASH

PERCENT TAkINg ACTIONS TO SAvE

INDIA CHINA UNITED STATES

+ PERCENTAgE POINT CHANgE FROM Q2_+ PERCENTAgE POINT CHANgE FROM Q2_

gLOBAL AvERAgE


SAVING, INVESTING AND PAyING DOwN DEbT wERE PRIORITIES Around the world, plans to save for the future saw buoyant increases,

with 52 percent of all respondents putting spare cash into savings, and

25 percent investing in shares of stocks and mutual funds, a quarterly

increase of 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively. Investment sentiment

increased in 57 percent of all markets measured, with marked increases

and a return to pre-recession levels in China (56%), India (34%) and

the United States (14%), up 14, 9 and 7 percentage points, respectively,

compared to Q2.

Paying off debts, credit cards and loans was the priority for 28 percent of

all respondents, an increase from 25 percent in the second quarter. Four-

in-10 (38%) North Americans said they intend to pay off debts, a quarterly

increase of 7 percentage points. One-third (34%) of Latin American

respondents focused on debt reduction, a decline of 3 percentage points

compared to Q2. One-fourth of Asia-Pacific (25%) and Europe (26%)

respondents, and one-fifth (18%) of Middle East/Africa respondents

planned to reduce their outstanding bills in the third quarter.

Saving for retirement was most pronounced in Asia-Pacific (20%) and

North America (16%), reporting quarterly increases of 6 and 5 percentage

points, respectively. Respondents in China (25%) and India (27%)

exceeded the regional average for planning ahead for their golden years,

reporting increases of 10 and 8 percentage points, respectively, compared

to three months ago.



saving, investing and planning for retirement Were groWing priorities

PERCENT SPENDINg SPARE CASH(CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2)

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

2005

-Q1

2005

-Q3

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q3

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q3

2008

-Q1

2008

-Q3

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q2

2009

-Q3

2009

-Q4

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q2

2010

-Q3

2010

-Q4

2011-

Q1

2011-

Q2

2011-

Q3

2011-

Q4

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q2

2012

-Q3

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q2

2013

-Q3

GLOBALCHINA INDIA UNITED STATES

INvESTMENT SENTIMENT BRIgHTENED IN Q3

+3 14% | Global Average

+10 25% | China

+8 27% | India

+6 16% | United States

RETIREMENT FUND


+10 71% | China

+13 66% | India


SAvINgS


+14 56% | China

+9 34% | India


INvESTINg IN SHARES OFSTOCk/MUTUAL FUNDS


+7 27% | China

+7 32% | India


PAYINg OFF DEBTS, CREDIT CARDS, LOANS

Percent utilizing spare cash for investing in shares of stock/mutual funds


RECESSION STILL ON THE MINDS OF MANy More than half (58%) of global respondents believed they were still in

a recession in the third quarter, a three-point quarterly increase, but a

four-point decline from 12 months ago.

Recessionary-sentiment improvements were reported in key economies

with year-over-year, double-digit declines. The United Kingdom

measured a decline of 18 percentage points to 74 percent, the United

States declined 13 points to 68 percent, Germany decreased 12 points to

46 percent, and China, declined 13 points to 26 percent.

While the overwhelming majority of respondents in Italy (97%), Ireland

(93%), Greece (90%), Spain (89%) and Portugal (88%) still felt

mired in recession, each reported improvements. Portugal reported

a recessionary sentiment decline of 9 percentage points in the third

quarter from a three-year average at 97 percent, and Spain declined 5

percentage points quarterly from a three-year average at 92 percent.

Conversely, double-digit quarterly recessionary sentiment increases

were reported in India, Brazil and Indonesia. Three-quarters of Indian

respondents (76%) said they were in a recession in the third quarter, an

increase of 25 percentage points from Q2. More than half of Brazilians

(55%) felt mired in recession, a rise of 14 percentage points, and 65

percent of Indonesians believed they were in recession, an increase of

11 percentage points.


2013

UNITED KINGDOM

HONG KONG

LITHUANIA

UNITED STATESCHINA

NEW ZEALAND

GERMANY

74% 92%

43% 60%

57% 70%

68% 81%

26% 39%53% 65%

46% 58%

2012 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2012 TO Q3 2013 100%

-18

-17

-13

-13

-13-12

-12

Q3

DENMARK

PORTUGAL

FRANCE

AUSTRIABELGIUM

UNITED KINGDOM

LITHUANIA

48% 57%

88% 97%

84% 92%

49% 57%

74% 82%74% 81%

57% 63%

Q2 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 100%

-9

-9

-8

-8

-8-7

-6

ARGENTINA 76% 81% -5

SPAIN 89% 94% -5

Q3

JAPAN

INDIA

LATVIA

BRAZILTHAILAND

PERU

INDONESIA

74% 37%

76% 51%

60% 45%

55% 41%

79% 66%45% 33%

65% 54%


+37

+25

+15

+14

+13+12

+11

SOUTH AFRICA 77% 67% +10

2013

UNITED KINGDOM

HONG KONG

LITHUANIA

UNITED STATESCHINA

NEW ZEALAND

GERMANY

74% 92%

43% 60%

57% 70%

68% 81%

26% 39%53% 65%

46% 58%


-18

-17

-13

-13

-13-12

-12

Q3

DENMARK

PORTUGAL

FRANCE

AUSTRIABELGIUM

UNITED KINGDOM

LITHUANIA

48% 57%

88% 97%

84% 92%

49% 57%

74% 82%74% 81%

57% 63%


-9

-9

-8

-8

-8-7

-6


SPAIN 89% 94% -5

Q3

JAPAN

INDIA

LATVIA

BRAZILTHAILAND

PERU

INDONESIA

74% 37%

76% 51%

60% 45%

55% 41%

79% 66%45% 33%

65% 54%


+37

+25

+15

+14

+13+12

+11


2013

UNITED KINGDOM

HONG KONG

LITHUANIA

UNITED STATESCHINA

NEW ZEALAND

GERMANY

74% 92%

43% 60%

57% 70%

68% 81%

26% 39%53% 65%

46% 58%


-18

-17

-13

-13

-13-12

-12

Q3

DENMARK

PORTUGAL

FRANCE

AUSTRIABELGIUM

UNITED KINGDOM

LITHUANIA

48% 57%

88% 97%

84% 92%

49% 57%

74% 82%74% 81%

57% 63%


-9

-9

-8

-8

-8-7

-6


SPAIN 89% 94% -5

Q3

JAPAN

INDIA

LATVIA

BRAZILTHAILAND

PERU

INDONESIA

74% 37%

76% 51%

60% 45%

55% 41%

79% 66%45% 33%

65% 54%


+37

+25

+15

+14

+13+12

+11



PERCENT BELIEvINg THEY ARE IN A RECESSION



Biggest improvement in year-over-year reCessionary sentiment

Biggest improvement in Quarterly reCessionary sentiment

Biggest Worsening reCessionary sentiment


POSITIVE CONFIDENCE MOMENTUM CONTINUES IN THE U.S.; CANADA DECLINESConsumer confidence in the United States increased steadily over the past

three quarters from an index of 89 in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 98 in the

third quarter of this year. Conversely, confidence in Canada reported the

opposite trend, measuring two consecutive quarters of declines, from an

index of 102 in Q1 to 98 in Q2 to 97 in Q3.

North America led the strongest regional quarterly increases for optimistic

perceptions about local job prospects (47%), personal finances (58%) and

a good time to buy (43%), rising 5, 4 and 2 percentage points, respectively,

compared to the second quarter, driven by improvements in the United

States. In Canada, the outlook for job prospects and plans to spend

declined by 1 percentage point each, and personal finances held steady

compared to the second quarter.

The growing positive sentiment in the Unites States was reflected in

American’s increased spending intentions. Home improvement projects

reported the biggest quarterly increase of 8 percentage points to 24 percent

in the third quarter. Plans to take holidays and vacations also measured a

7-point increase to 29 percent. Spending intentions for new clothes (31%),

out-of-home entertainment (24%) and new technology products (21%)

reported quarterly increases of 3, 2 and 2 percentage points, respectively.

“With U.S. inflation in check, confidence is now at the highest levels since

2007 giving consumers enough tailwinds to keep momentum moving

forward, which may bode well for the upcoming holiday season,” said

James Russo, senior vice president, Global Consumer Insights, Nielsen.

“Fast-moving consumer goods dollar sales are up 2.1 percent year to date,

and unit sales reversed a negative trend, now up 0.4 percent. However,

residual effects from the government shutdown, debt ceiling, an uneven

recovery, and the overall uncertainty that permeates the consumer mindset

will likely curtail robust gains in sales.”



CANADA UNITED STATES

loCal JoB prospeCts

personal finanCes

time to Buy

46%

58%

44%

50%

56%

41%

sentiment for JoBs, finanCes and shopping Were positive in the u.s.

PERCENT SAYINg gOOD/EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

+5

+4

+2

-1

0

-1

CANADA UNITED STATES

PERCENTAgE POINT CHANgE FROM Q2 2013

PERCENTAgE POINT CHANgE FROM

Q2 2013


RECESSION-bATTERED EUROPE SHOwED SIGNS OF RECOVERyConsumer confidence index scores were highest in Denmark

(103), Switzerland (98), Norway (96) and Germany (92), and most

improved in Portugal (55), Belgium (81), United Kingdom (87),

France (61), Spain (56) and Italy (47), compared to Q2.

“German consumers were optimistic in the third quarter, which was

noteworthy given the survey was fielded during the phase of election

campaigns where cost-critical topics such as tax increases, the

rescue of the euro, and energy costs may have played an important

role,” said Ingo Shier, managing director, Nielsen Germany. “Rather

than take a pessimistic view of the future, it appears that Germans

remained somewhat unaffected by the political environment as

fundamental economic data were likely perceived as robust. As

the development of coalition talks continue, however, consumer

confidence sentiment will be closely monitored.”

Seventy percent of European markets reported consumer confidence

increases in the third quarter as improvements across all confidence

indicators showed positive, albeit marginal, regional momentum.

Positive perceptions about local job prospects (26%), personal

finances (36%) and a good time to buy (29%) increased 2, 1 and 2

percentage points, respectively, compared to the second quarter.

On average, European discretionary spending intentions for new

clothes, holiday/vacations, out-of-home entertainment, home

improvements and new technology products reported marginal

improvements in the third quarter, which were aligned with a slight

retraction in strategies taken to save across these categories.

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only * Slovenia and Serbia were not included in Q2 2013

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMpROvED IN 70% OF EUROpEAN COUNTRIES MEASURED

+22 55 | Portugal

+9 81 | Belgium

+8 87 | United Kingdom

+8 61 | France

+8 56 | Spain

+6 103 | Denmark

+6 47 | Italy

+5 88 | Israel

+5 76 | Latvia

+4 85 | Turkey

+4 66 | Romania

+4 45 | Hungary

+3 66 | Poland

+3 48 | Croatia

+2 92 | Germany

+2 72 | Czech Republic

+2 63 | Bulgaria

+1 82 | Sweden

+1 81 | Lithuania

+1 72 | Estonia

+1 48 | Greece

0 98 | Switzerland

0 87 | Austria

0 80 | Russia

-1 78 | Netherlands

-1 69 | Ireland

-2 96 | Norway

-2 60 | Slovakia

-5 68 | Finland

-13 59 | Ukraine

47 | Slovenia

56 | Serbia

Q3 INDEX(CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2)

*

*


Good news was reported among Europe’s most troubled economies,

with consumer confidence increases in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece

and Spain. In addition to Portugal’s double-digit confidence boost of

22 index points, other hard-hit austerity markets showed increased

optimism. Spain’s index increased eight points to 56, Italy rose six

points to 47, and Greece inched up one point to 48. Despite a one-point

quarterly confidence decline in Ireland, an index score of 69 was a three-

point improvement from one year ago.

“In Portugal, second quarter GDP results reported an improvement

after 10 consecutive quarters of declines, which has likely ushered some

confidence back to consumers,” said Gustavo Nunez, market leader,

Nielsen Iberia. “But while recent employment figures, which have

improved after two years of declines, have possibly elevated consumer

sentiment, discussion about a second rescue and the potential for new

austerity measures may impact this optimism.”

trouBled eConomies: Consumer ConfidenCe is improving

120110

1009080706050403020

2005

-Q1

2005

-Q3

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q3

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q3

2008

-Q1

2008

-Q3

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q3

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q3

2010

-Q4

2011-

Q1

2011-

Q2

2011-

Q3

2011-

Q4

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q2

2012

-Q3

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q2

2013

-Q3

GREECEIRELAND ITALYPORTUGALSPAIN

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q2 2013 Based on respondents with online access only.


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC DECLINED, bUT INTENTIONS TO SPEND INCREASEDOverall consumer confidence in Asia-Pacific took a negative turn in the

third quarter, declining one index point regionally to 104, which was the

highest index of the five regions. Eight of the 14 countries measured in the

region posted a consumer confidence index decline, with India (112), Japan

(74) and Indonesia (120) decreasing most with declines of six, four and

four points, respectively, compared to Q2. China’s index of 110 held steady

from the second quarter.

The outlook for job prospects and personal finances declined in half of

the Asia-Pacific markets measured. The steepest job prospect quarterly

declines were reported in India and Japan, declining 10 and 8 percentage

points, respectively. Perceptions of personal finances declined most in

India and Indonesia, with declines of 4 percentage points each, compared

to Q2. More Asia-Pacific respondents felt mired in a recession (47%) in the

third quarter, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to Q2.

While respondents in the region were cautious about future job prospects

and personal finances, their intentions to spend on discretionary

indulgences were more optimistic. Half of regional respondents planned to

spend on holidays/vacations (50%), new clothes (46%) and out-of-home

entertainment (45%), up 7 percentage points each from Q2. Spending on

new technology (40%) and home improvements (30%) increased 6 and 7

percentage points, respectively. Increased spending intentions in India and

China exceeded the regional average for all categories.

“The devaluation of the Indian rupee, the decreasing GDP, and negative

news coverage on the economy has most probably contributed vastly to

the low levels of confidence for consumers in India in the third quarter,”

said Piyush Mathur, president, Nielsen India. “However, consumers are

still willing to spend more in the festival season. Festival time involves high

consumption on travel, gifts, new clothes and entertaining.”


“Although consumers are acutely aware of the economic pressures,

manufacturers and retailers activate deals and discounts during this

festive time period to give consumers more value for the money, which

helps to ease their spending concerns,” continued Mathur.

“The combination of the Chinese government’s domestic consumption-

led growth strategy, and the continued recovery and growth of the

U.S. economy, China’s largest export market, has likely contributed to

the optimism among Chinese consumers,” said Yan Xuan, president,

Nielsen Greater China. “Looking to the future, we believe stepped up

expansion by both multi-national and local Chinese companies into

lower tier cities and the rural markets will further bolster consumer

confidence levels in these parts of the country.”


Consumer ConfidenCe deClined in 57% of asia-paCifiC Countries measured

Q3 2013 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2)

INDIA

INDONESIA

JAPAN

PHILIPPINES

MALAYSIA

THAILAND

AUSTRALIA

HONg kONg

CHINA

NEw ZEALAND

SINgAPORE

SOUTH kOREA

vIETNAM

TAIwAN

112

74

120

118

96

101

112

106

110

76

54

98

97

97

+1

+2

+3

+3

+4

-1

-2

-2

-2

-3

-4

-4

-6

0

MALAYSIAINCREASEDECREASE NO CHANgE


Q3 2013 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2)

LATIN AMERICANS SHOwED EAGERNESS TO SPEND Consumer confidence in Latin America increased one index point in

the third quarter to a score of 94. Brazil led the region with the highest

index of 109, which decreased for the second consecutive quarter with a

one point decline compared to Q2. The biggest quarter-on-quarter index

increases were reported in Argentina (80) and Venezuela (76), which

increased 12 and eight index points, respectively. Consumer confidence

in Mexico (88) and Chile (95) increased four and one index point(s),

respectively in the third quarter. Peru (94) and Colombia (84) declined

five and three index points, respectively.

“In Brazil, inflation pressure remains high and GDP growth remains low,

which is likely eroding consumer confidence,” said Eduardo Ragasol,

country manager, Nielsen Brazil. “Riots and demonstrations are the

most visible result of the stressful situation lived by many low- and

medium-income consumers who are feeling the pressure of past debts

and price increases.”

“In Argentina, the surge in consumer confidence is attributed to a

series of government measures launched to activate consumption,” said

Martha Lucia Giraldo, country manager, Nielsen Argentina. “In essence,

employees are now paying less taxes and retirees are getting more

income. This action affected a significant percentage of employees who

have benefited from the increased purchasing power. And it is evident at

retail—according to Nielsen shopping basket trends, retail consumption

has grown 6.8 percent in the year ending July 2013.”

Regionally, discretionary spending increases were reported across most

spending categories measured. Spending plans for new clothes (29%)

increased four percentage points, and intent to spend on out-of-home

entertainment (30%) and holidays/vacations (20%) increased by 3

percentage points each compared to Q2. Spending on new technology

(19%) and home improvement projects (18%) inched up by 1 percentage

point each.

MALAYSIAQ2 2013 Q3 2013

PERCENT UTILIZINg SPARE CASH AFTER COvERINg ESSENTIAL LIvINg EXPENSES

disCretionary spending inCreased in latin ameriCa


OUT-OF-HOMEENTERTAINMENT

27%

30%

25%

29%

17%

20%

18%

19%

17%

18%

NEW CLOTHES

27%

30%

25%

29%

17%

20%

18%

19%

17%

18%

HOLIDAYS/vACATIONS

27%

30%

25%

29%

17%

20%

18%

19%

17%

18%

NEW TECHNOLOGY pRODUCTS

27%

30%

25%

29%

17%

20%

18%

19%

17%

18%

HOME IMpROvEMENTS/DECORATING

27%

30%

25%

29%

17%

20%

18%

19%

17%

18%


97

97

83

84

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

Consumer ConfidenCe inCreased in 3 of 5 middle

east/afriCa Countries measured

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HELD STEADy IN THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGIONConsumer confidence increased in three of five Middle East/Africa

markets, increasing the regional average by one index point in the third

quarter to 92. Egypt (83) reported the biggest three-month increase

of six index points, followed by a rise of four points in United Arab

Emirates (111), and three points in South Africa (84). Confidence

declines were reported in Saudi Arabia (97) and Pakistan (97), which

declined three and one point(s), respectively.

“Drastic changes over the past three years in Egypt have impacted the

pockets of Egyptians,” said Tamer Elaraby, managing director, Nielsen

Egypt. “After the revolution in January 2011, there was a spending

slow down due to job losses and a lack of clarity amid the tumultuous

environment. Despite the scarcity of jobs and low wages, however,

Egyptians are optimistic by nature and are hopeful that a new regime

will bring them social justice and freedom, which is likely translating to

improved consumer confidence results reported in the third quarter.”

Discretionary spending intentions increased marginally in the third

quarter, with plans to buy new clothes (27%) increasing most by

3 percentage points, compared to Q2. Spending on out-of-home

entertainment (22%) and new technology (19%) increased 2 percentage

points each. Plans to take holidays/vacations (17%) and conduct home

improvements projects (16%) declined 1 percentage point each.

+6

+4

+3

-3

-1

EgYPT

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

SAUDI ARABIA

SOUTH AFRICA

PAkISTAN

111

MALAYSIAINCREASE FROM Q2 2013

DECREASE FROM Q2 2013



Source: Internet World Stats, June 30, 2012

MARKET INTERNET pENETRATION

ARGENTINA 66%

AUSTRALIA 89%

AUSTRIA 80%

BELGIUM 81%

BRAZIL 46%

BULGARIA 51%

CANADA 83%

CHILE 59%

CHINA 40%

COLOMBIA 60%

CROATIA 71%

CZECH REPUBLIC 73%

DENMARK 90%

EGYPT 36%

ESTONIA 78%

FINLAND 89%

FRANCE 80%

GERMANY 83%

GREECE 53%

HONG KONG 75%

HUNGARY 65%

INDIA 11%

INDONESIA 22%

IRELAND 77%

ISRAEL 70%

ITALY 58%

JAPAN 80%

LATVIA 72%

LITHUANIA 65%

MARKET INTERNET pENETRATION

MALAYSIA 61%

MEXICO 37%

NETHERLANDS 93%

NEW ZEALAND 88%

NORWAY 97%

PAKISTAN 15%

PERU 37%

PHILIPPINES 32%

POLAND 65%

PORTUGAL 55%

ROMANIA 44%

RUSSIA 48%

SAUDI ARABIA 49%

SINGAPORE 75%

SLOVAKIA 79%

SOUTH AFRICA 17%

SOUTH KOREA 83%

SPAIN 67%

SWEDEN 93%

SWITZERLAND 82%

TAIWAN 75%

THAILAND 30%

TURKEY 46%

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 71%

UNITED KINGDOM 84%

UKRAINE 34%

UNITED STATES 78%

VENEZUELA 41%

VIETNAM 34%


AbOUT THE NIELSEN GLObAL SURVEy The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending

Intentions was conducted between August 14 and September 6, 213 and

polled more than 30,000 online consumers in 60 countries throughout

Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and North

America. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country

based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of

Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of error of ±0.6%.

This Nielsen survey is based on the behavior of respondents with

online access only. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen

uses a minimum reporting standard of 60 percent Internet penetration

or 10M online population for survey inclusion. The China Consumer

Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed methodology

survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The Nielsen Global Survey,

which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established

in 2005.

ABOUT NIELSEN Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and

measurement company with leading market positions in marketing

and consumer information, television and other media measurement,

online intelligence, mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence in

approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA and

Diemen, the Netherlands.

For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and

the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN

Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or

registered trademarks of their respective companies. 13/7077

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