connecting air pollution, climate change, energy and health
TRANSCRIPT
Connecting Air Pollution, Climate Change, Energy and Health
J. Jason WestDepartment of Environmental
Sciences & EngineeringUniversity of North Carolina,
Chapel Hill
Beijing – January 14, 2013Some stations reported >500 µg m-3 24-hr avg.
PM2.5 (>20 times the WHO guideline)
• Air pollution is underappreciated for global health.• Air pollution and its health impacts are changing globally, and
will change in ways interrelated with climate change.• Air pollution science offers new possibilities: new
measurement methods measuring more chemical components, cheap sensors that can be widely deployed, satellites, and models.
• There is a need for the communities of air pollution science and air pollution health effects science to work together better.
Meteorology
Emissions
Typical horizontal resolutions:Global model – 5 to 0.5 degreesRegional model (continental) – 50 to 10 km
Concentrations
Chemical Mechanism
Modeling Global Air Pollution & Health
Health Function
Incidence Data
Health Impacts
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Health impact function
∆Mort = y0 x AF x Pop
β = Concentration-response factor
Baseline mortality rate
Exposed Population
- Respiratory diseases (RESP)(inc. COPD – chronic obstructive pulmonary disease)
- Cardiovascular diseases (inc. IHD – ischemic heart disease,STROKE – cerebrovascular disease)
- Lung Cancer (LC)
(≈ CPD)
∆Mort = y0 x (1-exp-βΔX) x Pop
ΔX = Change in concentration
8
Population and Baseline Mortality Rates
Total Population, persons(Landscan 2011 at 30”x30”gridded to 0.67°x0.5°)
Baseline Mortality Rates, deaths per year per 100,000(GBD 2010, country level, AllAges > gridded to 0.67°x0.5°)
IHD
COPD
Stroke
LC
3,839 million
Population 25+, persons(Landscan 2011 at 30”x30”gridded to 0.67°x0.5°)
6,946 million
-20% Global Anthrop. Methane Emissions:30,200 avoided premature deaths in 2030
due to reduced ozone
West et al., PNAS, 2006
Ozone from N. American and
European emissions causes more deaths
outside of those regions than within
Avoided deaths (hundreds) from 20% regional ozone precursor reductions, based on HTAP simulations, Anenberg et al. (EST, 2009)
11
Global mortality burden – ACCMIP ensemble
Ozone-related mortality PM2.5-related mortality(*)
470,000 (95% CI: 140,000 - 900,000) 2.1 million (95% CI: 1.3 - 3.0 million)
(*) PM2.5 calculated as a sum of species (dark blue)PM2.5 as reported by 4 models (dark green) Light-colored bars - low-concentration threshold (5.8 µg m-3)
Silva et al. (ERL, 2013)
12
Global Burden: Ozone-related mortality
Respiratory mortality , deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1, multi-model mean in each grid cell , 14 models
Global and regional mortality per year
Regions Total deaths
Deaths per
million people (*)
North America 34,400 121
Europe 32,800 96
Former Soviet Union 10,600 66
Middle East 16,200 68
India 118,000 212
East Asia 203,000 230
Southeast Asia 33,300 119
South America 6,970 38
Africa 17,300 73
Australia 469 29
Global 472,000 149
(*) Exposed population (age 30 and older)
Silva et al. (ERL 2013)
13
Global Burden: PM2.5-related mortality
CPD+LC mortality , deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1, multi-model mean in each grid cell , 6 models
Global and regional mortality per year
Regions Total deaths
Deaths per
million people (*)
North America 43,000 152
Europe 154,000 448Former Soviet Union
128,000 793
Middle East 88,700 371
India 397,000 715
East Asia 1,049,000 1,191
Southeast Asia 158,000 564
South America 16,800 92
Africa 77,500 327
Australia 1,250 78
Global 2,110,000 665
1
(*) Exposed population (age 30 and older)
Silva et al. (ERL 2013)
Global burden of disease of air pollution (2013)
Forouanzafar et al., 2015
5.5 million deaths per year(95% CI: 5.1 – 5.9 million)
Global Deaths per Year
Ambient PM2.5 pollution: 2.9 (2.7 – 3.1) million
Household air pollution from solid fuels: 2.9 (2.5 – 3.3) million
Ambient ozone pollution: 0.22 (0.16 – 0.27) million
~10% of all deaths globally!
GBD: Global Deaths per Year (2013)
Ambient PM2.5 pollution: 2.9 (2.7 – 3.1) million-> 7th most important risk factor for deaths, 5th in East Asia.
Household air pollution from solid fuels: 2.9 (2.5 – 3.3) million-> 8th most important risk factor for deaths, 2nd in South Asia.
Ambient ozone pollution: 0.22 (0.16 – 0.27) million
GBD: US Deaths per Year (2013)
Ambient PM2.5 pollution: 79,000 (70,000 – 89,000)
Household air pollution from solid fuels: 0
Ambient ozone pollution: 12,000 (4,000 – 21,000)
Other US estimates
Ambient PM2.5 pollution: 66,000 (39,000 – 85,000) (Punger & West, 2013)130,000 (Fann et al., 2012)
Ambient ozone pollution: 21,000 (6,000 – 34,000) (Punger & West, 2013)4,700 (Fann et al., 2012)
~3% of all US deaths!
17
Ozone-related mortality (sectors zeroed-out)
Contributions of each sector to total ozone respiratory mortality, fraction of total burden in each cell
Land Transportation
Energy Industry
Residential & Commercial
Silva et al. (EHP, submitted)
Global total: 45,600 deaths/yearGlobal total: 65,200 deaths/year
Global total: 80,900 deaths/year Global total: 53,700 deaths/year
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PM2.5-related mortality (sectors zeroed-out)
Contributions of each sector to total PM2.5 mortality (IHD+Stroke+COPD+LC), fraction of total burden in each cell
Land Transportation
Energy Industry
Residential & Commercial
Global total: 290,000 deaths/year Global total: 323,000 deaths/year
Global total: 212,000 deaths/year Global total: 675,000 deaths/year
Silva et al. (EHP, submitted)
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Future ozone-related mortality - ACCMIP
Global Respiratory Premature Ozone Mortality: 2030, 2050 and 2100 vs. 2000 conc.- Uncertainty for the ensemble mean is a 95% CI including uncertainty in RR and across models. -
Silva et al. (ACPD, 2016)
20
Future PM2.5-related mortality - ACCMIP
Global CPD+LC Premature PM2.5 Mortality: 2030, 2050 and 2100 vs. 2000 conc.-Uncertainty for the ensemble mean is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the RR and across models. –
Silva et al. (ACPD 2016)
21
Future PM2.5-related mortality - ACCMIP
RCP2.6 6 models RCP8.5 6 models
deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1-1000 -100 -10 -1 -0.1 -0.01 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
IHD+Stroke+COPD+LC Premature PM2.5 Mortality –2100 (two scenarios)
IHD+Stroke+ COPD+LC Premature PM2.5 Mortality
Silva et al. (ACPD 2016)
22
Concentrations Population Baseline MR2000 minus 1850 Present-day Present-day2000 minus 1850 Future FutureFuture minus 1850 Future Future
Global air pollution burden on mortality
Ozone PM2.5Respiratory mortality (million deaths/year)
IHD+Stroke+COPD+LC mortality (million deaths/year)
RCPs
Silva et al. (ACPD 2016)
Climate Change – What’s certain
1) Greenhouse gases cause warming by absorbing infrared radiation.
John Tyndall (1820-1893) –
Conducted lab experiments in 1860s and discovered that CO2, CH4, H2O are greenhouse gases, but N2, O2, Ar are not.
Climate Change – What’s certain2) Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing, caused by human emissions.
3) Global temperatures are increasing
Climate Change - What’s certain
NASA GISS
IPCC, 2013
Climate Change Attribution:High Confidence
“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.”
IPCC, 2013
Climate Change – Uncertain Future
Year 2100 under no climate policy: 4 (3-5.5) °C = 7 (5-10) °F.
Paris climate agreement: historical backdrop
• 1992 – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change
• 1997 – Kyoto Protocol• 2001 – US pulls out of the Kyoto Protocol• 2010 – Copenhagen pledges• Summer 2015 – US & China announce pledges• 2015 – Paris Accords
Paris Accords (Dec. 2015)
• Not legally binding.• Ambitious targets to reduce emissions by
2030 by most nations globally.• Plan to meet every 5 years to renew pledges.• Aspirational goal of limiting temperature
change to 1.5°C – implies ZERO emissions by roughly 2070.
** Paris requires countries to follow through on their commitments. In US, that is the Clean Power Plan.
Consequences of Paris agreement
Fawcett et al., 2015
Impact of RCP8.5 Climate Change on Global Air Pollution Mortality: ACCMIP Models
Mean (95% CI)(thousands deaths . yr-1)
203011 (-30, 86)
2100127 (-193, 1,070)
Million deaths yr-1OZONE
Million deaths yr-1
PM2.5
Mean (95% CI)(thousand deaths . yr-1)
203056 (-34 , 164)
2100215 (-76 , 595)
Silva et al., in prep.
Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation for Air Quality
Sources & Policies
Air pollutants
GHGs
Air pollution
ClimateChange
Objective: Analyze global co-benefits for air quality and human health to 2100 via both mechanisms.
1) Immediate and Local
2) Long-Term and Global
HumanHealth
Approach
• Use the GCAM reference for emissions rather than RCP8.5, for consistency with RCP4.5.
• Simulations conducted in MOZART-4. - 2° x 2.5° horizontal resolution. - 5 meteorology years for each case.- Fixed methane concentrations.- Compares well with ACCMIP RCP4.5.
Years EmissionsGCAM
MeteorologyGFDL AM3
Name
2000 2000 2000 2000
2030, 2050,2100
GCAMReference
RCP8.5 REF
RCP4.5 RCP4.5 RCP4.5
GCAMReference
RCP4.5 eREFm45
Co-benefits – PM2.5 Concentration
Global population-weighted, annual average PM2.5
West et al. NCC 2013
Co-benefits – Global Premature Mortality
PM2.5 co-benefits (CPD + lung cancer mortality)
2030: 0.4±0.2 million yr-1
2050: 1.1±0.52100: 1.5±0.6
Ozone co-benefits (respiratory mortality)
2030: 0.09±0.062050: 0.2±0.12100: 0.7±0.5
Projection of global population and baseline mortality rates from International Futures.
West et al. NCC 2013
Co-benefits – Valuation of Avoided Mortality
Red: High valuation (2030 global mean $3.6 million)Blue: Low valuation (2030 global mean $1.2 million)Green: Median and range of global C price (13 models)
West et al. NCC 2013
Downscaling Co-benefits to USA (2050)
Zhang et al. ACPD, 2016
PM2.5 (annual avg.) US mean = 0.47 µg/m3
Ozone (May-Oct MDA8) US mean = 3.55 ppbv
RCP4.5 - REF
(b)(a)
Downscaling Co-benefits to USA (2050)
Zhang et al. ACPD, 2016
Dom
estic
Ozone
Most PM2.5 co-benefits from
domesticreductions.
Most ozone co-benefits
from foreignand methane
reductions.
PM2.5
0.35 µg/m3
0.12 µg/m3
Fore
ign
0.86 ppb
2.69 ppb
Domestic vs. Foreign Co-benefits: PM2.5
Zhang et al. in prep
Domestic (20800 deaths/yr) Foreign (4600 deaths/yr)
Ø Domestic GHG mitigation accounts for 85% of the total avoided PM2.5 mortality.
Domestic vs. Foreign Co-benefits: O3
Zhang et al. in prep
Domestic (4600 deaths/yr) Foreign (7600 deaths/yr)
Ø Foreign countries’ GHG mitigation accounts for 62% of the total avoided deaths of O3.
US Co-benefits in 2050• Avoided premature deaths from GHG mitigation: 24500 (CI:
17800-31100) from PM2.5, and 12200 (CI: 5400-18900) from O3.
• Avoided heat stress mortality from RCP4.5 relative to RCP8.5:2340 (CI: 1370-3320) (Ying Li).
• Monetized co-benefits in 2050 are $74 (46-101) per ton CO2reduced at low VSL, $220 (140-304) at high VSL.
• Foreign GHG mitigation accounts for 62% of the total avoideddeaths from O3, and 15% for PM2.5.
• Previous regional or national co-benefits studies mayunderestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.
• U.S. can gain significantly greater co-benefits, especially forozone, by collaborating with other countries to combat climatechange.
Zhang et al. in preparation
Thank you
Contributions from:Students/Postdocs: Raquel Silva, Yuqiang Zhang, Yasuyuki Akita,
Zac Adelman, Meridith Fry, Susan Anenberg, CiaoKai Liang Collaborators: Steve Smith, Vaishali Naik, Larry Horowitz, Drew
Shindell Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jared Bowden, Arlene Fiore, ACCMIP modelers, HTAP modelers
Funding Sources:• EPA STAR Grant #834285• NIEHS Grant #1 R21 ES022600-01 • EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards• Portugal Foundation for Science and Technology Fellowship • EPA STAR Fellowship• UNC Dissertation Completion Fellowship• US Department of Energy, Office of Science• NOAA GFDL for computing resources
834285
UNC Climate Health and Air Quality Labwww.unc.edu/~jjwest
Projecting Baseline Health
2010 from WHO GBDFuture from International Futures
(mortality rates are at country level)
12-km CMAQ
Global model 2.8º resolution
Bias in US Deaths from PM2.5
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0 100 200 300 400
Deat
hs/Y
ear
Grid Resolution (km)
CMAQ Model Output(12km-grid)
Punger and West (AQAH, 2013)
30~40% lower than 12km grid estimate
46
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 100 200 300 400 500
PWC
(µg/
m3 )
Grid Resolution (km)
CMAQ
Satellite
Akita et al. in prep.
US Bias is different for Satellite PM2.5!
48
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2030 2050 2100
CO2 concentration (ppmv)
100
400
700
1000
2000 2030 2050 2100
CH4 emissions (TgCH4.yr-1)
40
80
120
160
2000 2030 2050 2100
NOx emissions (TgNO2.yr-1)
10
50
90
130
2000 2030 2050 2100
Sulfur emissions (TgSO2.yr-1)
Source: RCP Database - http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=compare
49
Respiratory premature ozone mortality - 2030, 2050, 2100 vs. 2000
deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1
-1000 -100 -10 -1 -0.1 -0.01 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
RCP2.6 11 models RCP8.5 13 models
Future ozone-related mortality (II)
Respiratory premature ozone mortality - 2100 (two scenarios)
Silva et al. (ACPD 2016)
Our co-benefits approach: advantages
• First co-benefits study to use a global atmospheric model.– Capture effects of long-range transport and methane.
• First to estimate co-benefits by two mechanisms.• Use consistent future scenarios built on RCP4.5:
emissions, population, economics (valuation).• By embedding the US study within a prior global study,
we capture US co-benefits from foreign reductions.
Results – PM2.5 Concentration
2050
2100
Annual average PM2.5Total changeRCP4.5 - REF
MeteorologyeREFm45 - REF
EmissionsRCP4.5 – eREFm45
West et al. NCC 2013
Results – Ozone Concentration
Global population-weighted, max. 6 month average of 1 hr. daily max ozone West et al. NCC 2013
Results – Ozone Concentration
2050
2100
Max. 6 month average of 1 hr. daily max ozone
Total co-benefit #2 Meteorology #1 Emissions
MeteorologyeREFm45 - REF
Total changeRCP4.5 - REF
EmissionsRCP4.5 - eREFm45
West et al. NCC 2013
Results – Global Premature Mortality
West et al. NCC 2013
Co-benefits: conclusions
• Global abatement of GHG emissions brings substantial air quality and human health co-benefits.
• Global GHG mitigation (RCP4.5 relative to REF) causes 0.5±0.2 million avoided deaths in 2030, 1.3±0.5 in 2050, and 2.2±0.8 in 2100
• Global average monetized co-benefits are $50-380 / ton CO2
– Greater than previous estimates
– Greater than abatement costs in 2030 and 2050.
• The direct co-benefits from air pollutant emission reductions exceed those via slowing climate change.
West et al. NCC 2013