Conflict, Security and Development

Cairo, ERF 2016

Contents

1. Trends in conflict < slide 3 >

2. Causes & correlates < slide 6 >

3. Characteristics of successful transitions < slide 10 >

4. Violent extremism – differences < slide 15 >

5. Geopolitical conflict < slide 20 >

Trends in conflict

Source: Uppsala/PRIO, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) [for marked 2014 estimates only]

Note: These data are best estimates drawn from available vetted sources. Because of conditions and data-gathering limitations in many areas in conflict, we recognize these estimates may be subject to change and can vary between sources.

Source: UNHCR, University of Maryland Global Terrorism Database, Uppsala/PRIO, World Bank

884%

Causes & correlates

Economic StressesInternal External

• Low incomes

• Youth unemployment

• Natural resource wealth

• Severe corruption

• Income inequality

• Economic shocks

• Climate change

• Natural disasters

Political StressesInternal External

• Ethnic, religious or regional competition

• Real or perceived discrimination

• Human rights abuses

• Perceived global inequity and injustice in the treatment of different groups

Security StressesInternal External

• Mistrust of other groups, security forces

• Legacies of violence and trauma

• Invasion/occupation

• External support for domestic rebels

• Cross-border conflict spillovers

• Transnational terrorism

• International criminal networks

Security, Economic, and Political Stresses

• Both political and criminal violence correlate strongly with weak and/or predatory institutions

• Legitimate institutions: technical capacity plus accountability and inclusion

• High levels of political terror increase the chances of future conflict

• High levels of corruption increase the chances of future conflict• Increases in the numbers of political prisoners and extrajudicial

killings increase the chances of future conflict

But the real key is institutions

Internal & external stresses

Weak/ illegitimate institutions

Increased risk of

violence

The Common Challenge

Characteristics of successful transitions

Virtuous cycles: the challenge ofcontinuous prevention

Immediate Signals

‘Commitment Mechanisms’

RealisticStrategies

• Participatory processes• Credible appointments• Transparency in

expenditures• Budget allocations to

priority groups• Redeployment /vetting

of security forces• Removal of

discriminatory policies

• Independence of executing agencies

• Independent monitoring

• Dual-key systems• International

execution of key functions

• National strategy: risk and priority assessments

• ‘Best fit’ approaches, realistic timeframes

• Simple plans, simple progress measures (polling)

• 2-3 early results• Communicate!

Coalitions, Confidence, Signals

Citizen Security Access to Justice and Services Jobs

• Citizen protection; community policing

• Realistic objectives & communications

• Vetting; security forces accountable to public

• Dismantling criminal networks

• Independent judiciaries linked to security reforms; faster caseload processing; extending justice services

• Phased anti-corruption measures; social accountability mechanisms

• Humanitarian delivery

• Public financial management: directing funds to underserved/excluded groups

• Multi-sectoral community empowerment programs (CDD etc.)

• Political representation: local and national

• Community-based/public employment programs

• Macroeconomic policies to contain consumer price volatility and encourage labor-intensive private employment

Transforming institutions…

ICRG Indicators 1985 – 2009

Years to threshold at pace of….

Fastest 20 Fastest ever

Bureaucratic quality 20 12

Corruption 27 14

Military in politics 17 10

Government effectiveness 36 13

…takes time

Violent extremism – differences

Violent extremism

• Contested definitions and poor quality data• What we know:– No direct link to poverty– Possible link to exclusion– Possible link to institutions– Education/class patterns of recruits different– Positive pull, not just push factors

Source: ILO, World Bank

Source: Credit Suisse, The Economist, Oxfam, World Bank

Source: IDEA, ITU, World Bank, ILO

Geopolitical conflict

Source: World Bank

Source: University of Groningen Maddison Project, Infogram