competition concentration and their relationship an empirical analysis of the banking industry...
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Competition, concentration andtheir relationship: An empirical analysis
of the banking industry
Jacob A. Bikkera,*, Katharina Haaf
b
a De Nederlandsche Bank, Section Banking and Supervisory Strategies, P.O. Box 98,
NL-1000 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlandsb McGill University, Montreal, Canada
Abstract
This article examines competitive conditions and market structure in the banking industry,
and investigates their interrelationship. Competition is measured using the PanzarRosse
model. In order to distinguish competitive behaviour on local, national and international mar-
kets, for each country, three subsamples are taken: small or local banks, medium-sized banks
and large or international banks. For all 23 countries considered, estimations indicate mono-
polistic competition, competition being weaker in local markets and stronger in international
markets. Subsequently, a relationship for the impact of the market structure on competition is
derived and tested empirically, providing support for the conventional view that concentration
impairs competitiveness.
2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
JEL classification: F36; G2; L1
Keywords: Local and international banks; Competition; Concentration; Market structure; PanzarRossemodel
1. Introduction
European banking markets are undergoing unprecedented changes, caused by the
deregulation of financial services, the establishment of the economic and monetary
union (EMU) and developments in information technology, which may well turn
Journal of Banking & Finance 26 (2002) 21912214
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*Corresponding author. Tel.: +31-20-524-2352; fax: +31-20-524-3669.
E-mail address: [email protected] (J.A. Bikker).
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out to be dramatic. Many of these changes will have vast implications for competi-
tion and concentration in the banking and financial sectors. One of the consequences
is already apparent in the recent wave of mergers in the European banking industry.
This process of concentration may affect competition, in particular on local marketsfor retail banking services. Questions may arise such as: Should concentration be
slowed down? or Are additional measures needed to ensure sufficient competition
in local retail markets? Besides, increased concentration and the size of the new
global players may cause concerns about financial stability. In order to judge the im-
plications of these developments, one has to examine the banking industry s current
market structure, to determine the degree of competition, and to investigate the im-
pact the consolidation is likely to have on the market structure and the behaviour of
banks. In recent years, however, relatively few empirical studies have examined com-
petition and concentration in European banking markets. This article seeks to mea-
sure the degree of competition in the European banking markets, and to investigatethe impact of concentration on competition. Moreover, it attempts to compare the
situation in Europe with that in the US and other countries.
The literature on the measurement of competition may be divided into two main-
streams, called the structural and the non-structural approach. 1 The structural ap-
proach to model competition includes the structureconductperformance (SCP)
paradigm and the efficiency hypothesis, as well as a number of formal approaches
with roots in industrial organisation theory. The SCP paradigm investigates whether
a highly concentrated market causes collusive behaviour among larger banks result-
ing in superior market performance; whereas the efficiency hypothesis tests whether
it is the efficiency of larger banks that makes for enhanced performance. In reaction
to the theoretical and empirical deficiencies of the structural models, non-structural
models of competitive behaviour have been developed namely the Iwata model, the
Bresnahan model, and the Panzar and Rosse (PR) model. These New Empirical In-
dustrial Organisation approaches measure competition and emphasise the analysis of
the competitive conduct of banks without using explicit information about the struc-
ture of the market. In this article we will use one of these non-structural models, the
PR model, to assess the degree of competition in a large number of countries. One
of the structural approaches, the SCP paradigm, provides a theoretical relationship
between market structure (concentration) and conduct (competition) which, in theempirical banking literature, is ignored. This article fills in this gap by using the
PR models measure of competition to test this relationship empirically.
Ideally, an evaluation of competitive conditions and the degree of concentration in
the banking industry should begin by rigorously defining the market under consider-
ation. The relevant market consists of all suppliers of a particular banking service, in-
cluding actual or potential competitors, and it has a product dimension and a
geographical dimension. The product definition of a market is based on the equality
of the products as regards their ability to fulfil specific consumer wants. The geo-
graphical boundaries of a market are determined by actual and potential contacts
1 For an overview, see Bikker and Haaf (2001).
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between actual and potential market participants. These boundaries depend on the
products involved: for retail banking, the local dimension of a market is relevant
while the regional or international dimension is relevant for corporate banking.
The desirability to define product and (smaller-scale) geographical markets makesit harder to apply competition and concentration models to the banking industry, es-
pecially given the shortage in (European) data with respect to specific banking prod-
ucts or local regions.
This article attempts to solve this problem to some extent by applying the PR
model to samples of banks of various sizes, under the assumption that small banks
operate mostly at a local scale and that large banks compete more than other banks
at the international level, while medium-sized banks occupy an intermediate posi-
tion. Furthermore, retail banking is assumed to be concentrated mostly in small
banks while corporate banking occurs more at large banks. Banking behaviour in
geographical markets of various sizes is observed indirectly, through the data of in-dividual banks used in the PR model. Of course, this is only a first step in the right
direction, but we do acquire information about the effect of (the size of) geographical
markets on competition.
The plan of this article is as follows. Section 2 introduces and explains the PR
approach. Section 3 applies this model to banks in 23 industrialised countries. For
each country, four samples are taken: small, medium-sized and large banks and,
finally, all banks. This section also displays various concentration indices and applies
them to the (same) 23 industrialised countries. Finally, the relationship between com-
petition and concentration is tested empirically. The ultimate section summarises
and draws conclusions.
2. The Panzar and Rosse approach
Rosse and Panzar (1977) and Panzar and Rosse (1987) formulated simple models
for oligopolistic, competitive and monopolistic markets and developed a test to dis-
criminate between these models. This test is based on properties of a reduced-form
revenue equation at the firm or bank level and uses a test statistic H, which, under
certain assumptions, can serve as a measure of competitive behaviour of banks. The
test is derived from a general banking market model, which determines equilibriumoutput and the equilibrium number of banks, by maximising profits at both the bank
level and the industry level. This implies, first, that bank i maximises its profits,
where marginal revenue equals marginal cost:
R0ixi; n;zi C0ixi;wi; ti 0: 1
Ri refers to revenues and Ci to costs of bank i(the prime denoting marginal), xi is the
output of bank i, n is the number of banks, wi is a vector of m factor input prices of
bank i, zi is a vector of exogenous variables that shift the banks revenue function, tiis a vector of exogenous variables that shift the banks cost function. Secondly, at the
market level, it means that, in equilibrium, the zero profit constraint holds:
Ri x; n;z Ci x
;w; t 0: 2
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Variables marked with an asterisk () represent equilibrium values. Market power ismeasured by the extent to which a change in factor input prices (dwki) is reflected in
the equilibrium revenues (dRi ) earned by bank i. Panzar and Rosse define a measure
of competition H as the sum of the elasticities of the reduced-form revenues withrespect to factor prices: 2
H Xmk1
oRiowki
wkiRi
: 3
The first market model Panzar and Rosse investigated describes monopoly. The
monopoly analysis includes the case of price-taking competitive firms, as long as the
prices they face are truly exogenous, that is, as long as their equilibrium values are
unaffected by changes in the other exogenous variables in the model. An empirical
refutation of monopoly constitutes a rejection of the assumption that the revenuesof the banks in question are independent of the decisions made by their actual or
potential rivals. Panzar and Rosse proved that under monopoly, an increase in input
prices will increase marginal costs, reduce equilibrium output and subsequently re-
duce revenues; hence H will be zero or negative. This is a very generalised result,
requiring little beyond the profit maximisation hypothesis itself. Along similar lines,
Vesala (1995) proves that the same result holds for monopolistic competition
without the threat of entry, i.e. with a fixed number of banks. Thus, this case also
falls under what we call monopoly. In the case where the monopolist faces a de-
mand curve of constant price elasticity e > 1 and where a constant returns to scaleCobbDouglas technology is employed, Panzar and Rosse proved that His equal to
e 1. Hence apart from the sign, the magnitude of H may also be of importance, asH yields an estimate of the Lerner index of monopoly power L e 1=e H=H 1.
Three other commonly employed models for an industrial market investigated by
Panzar and Rosse are monopolistic competition and perfect competition and conjec-
tural variation oligopoly, all of which happen to be consistent with positive values
for H. In these models, the revenue function of individual banks depends upon
the decisions made by its actual or potential rivals. For monopolistic and perfect
competition, the analysis is based on the comparative statics properties of theChamberlinian equilibrium model. This model introduces interdependence into
banks structural revenue equations via the hypothesis that, in equilibrium, free entry
and exit results in zero profits. Under a set of general assumptions, 3 it can be proved
that under monopolistic competition, H6 1. Positive values of H indicate that the
data are consistent with monopolistic competition but not with individual profit
maximisation as under monopoly conditions. In other words, banks produce more
and the price is less than would be optimal in each individual case. A priori, mono-
polistic competition is most plausible for characterising the interaction between
2 See Panzar and Rosse (1987) or Vesala (1995) for details of the formal derivation of H.3 One of the assumptions is that the market is in a long-run equilibrium. This assumption can be tested
empirically.
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banks, as it recognises the existence of product differentiation and is consistent with
the observation that banks tend to differ with respect to product quality variables
and advertising, although their core business is fairly homogeneous.
In the limit case of the monopolistic competition model, where banks products areregarded as perfect substitutes of one another, the Chamberlinian model produces the
perfectly competitive solution, as demand elasticity approaches infinity. In this per-
fect competition case, H 1. An increase in input prices raises both marginal and av-erage costs without under certain conditions altering the optimal output of any
individual firm. Exit of some firms increases the demand faced by each of the remain-
ing firms, leading to an increase in prices and revenues equivalent to the rise in costs.
Finally, analysing the conjectural variation oligopoly case, Panzar and Rosse
show that strategic interactions among a fixed number of banks may also be consis-
tent with positive values of H. In general, the value of H is not restricted. In the
special case of perfect collusion oligopoly or a perfect cartel, the value of H is non-positive, similar to the monopoly model. Table 1 summarises the discriminatory
power of H.
The Chamberlinian equilibrium model described above provides a simple link be-
tween H and the number of banks, so between market behaviour and market struc-
ture. The model is based on free entry of banks and determines not only the output
level but also the equilibrium number of banks. Vesala (1995) proves that H is an
increasing function of the demand elasticity e, that is, the less market power is exer-
cised on the part of banks, the higher H becomes. This implies that H is not used
solely to reject certain types of market behaviour, but that its magnitude serves as
a measure of competition. One of the general assumptions underlying the Chamber-
linian equilibrium model mentioned above is that the elasticity of perceived demand
facing the individual firm, ex; n;w, is a non-decreasing function of the number ofrival banks. Panzar and Rosse call this a standard assumption, eminently plausible
and almost a truism. Vesalas result and this assumption together provide a positive
(theoretical) relationship between H and the number of banks, or in a more loose
interpretation an inverse relationship between H and banking concentration.
2.1. The empirical PR model
The empirical application of the PR approach assumes a log-linear marginal cost
function (dropping subscripts referring to bank i)
Table 1
Discriminatory power of H
Values of H Competitive environment
H60 Monopoly equilibrium: each bank operates independently as under monopoly
profit maximisation conditions (His a decreasing function of the perceived demand
elasticity) or perfect cartel.
0 < H< 1 Monopolistic competition free entry equilibrium (His an increasing function of theperceived demand elasticity).
H 1 Perfect competition. Free entry equilibrium with full efficient capacity utilisation.
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ln MC a0 a1 ln OUT Xmi1
bi ln FIPi Xpj1
cj ln EXCOSTj 4
where OUT is output of the bank, FIP are the factor input prices (regarding e.g.funding, personnel expenses and other non-interest expenses) and EXCOST are other
variables, exogenous to the cost function Ci (t in Eq. (1)). Equally, the underlying
marginal revenue function has been assumed to be log-linear of the form
ln MR d0 d1 ln OUT Xqk1
fk ln EXREVk 5
where EXREV are variables related to the bank-specific demand function (z in Eq.
(1)). For a profit-maximising bank, marginal costs equal marginal revenues in
equilibrium, yielding the equilibrium value for output (denoted by an asterisk):
ln OUT a0
d0
Xmi1
bi ln FIPi Xpj1
cj ln EXCOSTj Xqk1
fk ln EXREVk
!,
d1 a1: 6
The reduced-form equation for revenues of bank i is the product of the equilibrium
values of output of bank i and the common price level, determined by the inverse-
demand equation, which reads, in logarithms, as ln p n g ln P
i OUT
i .In the empirical analysis, the following operationalisation of the reduced-formrevenue equation is used:
ln INTR a b ln AFR c ln PPE d ln PCE X
fj ln BSFj
g ln OI e 7
where INTR is the ratio of total interest revenue to the total balance sheet, 4 AFR is
the ratio of annual interest expenses to total funds, or the average funding rate, PPE
is the ratio of personnel expenses to the total balance sheet, or the (approximated)
price of personnel expenses, PCE is the ratio of physical capital expenditure andother expenses to fixed assets, or the (approximated) price of capital expenditure,
BSF are bank specific exogenous factors (without explicit reference to their origin
from the cost or revenue function), OI is the ratio of other income to the total
balance sheet, and e is a stochastic error term. AFR, PPE and PCE are the unit
prices of the inputs of the banks: funds, labour and capital, or proxies of these prices.
In the notation of Eq. (7), the H statistic is given by b c d. In order to verifywhether the competitive structure has changed over time as a result of liberalisation
and deregulation, model (7) is applied to a pooled cross-section (across banks) and
4 Here we follow the specification of the dependent variable of Molyneux et al. (1994). Other authors
use unscaled revenues. Re-estimation of the equation with unscaled revenues yields similar results,
particularly if one of the bank-specific factors is total assets.
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time-series analysis over the time span 198898. We are assuming that the long-term
equilibrium market structure underlying the PR analysis shifts gradually over time
due to institutional changes (as mentioned in the introduction) not incorporated into
the model equation. Ignoring market dynamics may lead to imprecise parameterestimates and biased H statistics, which could in turn result in wrong inferences
about the competitive nature of the banking industry. Therefore, we multiply the
elasticities of H by a continuous time-curve model expeTIME:
ln INTR a b ln AFR c ln PPE d ln PCEeeTIME
X
fj ln BSFj g ln OI e: 8
Note that e 0 indicates that H is constant over time. Without this assumption of
gradual change, the results may be implausibly erratic, as found by Molyneux et al.(1994), who applied the PR model to a series of subsequent years.
The dependent variable is the ratio of total interest revenue to the total balance
sheet, as in Molyneux et al. (1994). The decision to consider only the interest part
of the total revenue of banks is consistent with the underlying notion inherent in
the PR model, that financial intermediation is the core business of most banks.
However, Shaffer (1982) and Nathan and Neave (1989) took total revenue as their
dependent variable. In our sample, the share of non-interest revenues to total reve-
nues is, on average, only 14%. However, it has increased in recent years, doubling
between 1990 and 1998. In order to account for the influence exerted by the gener-
ation of other income on the models underlying marginal revenue and cost func-tions, we also include the ratio of other income to the total balance sheet (OI) as
an explanatory variable. Actually, the PR model we will apply, Eq. (8), encom-
passes the model of Molyneux et al. (g 0).The ratio of personnel expenses to the number of employees (PENE) could be a
plausible alternative to the ratio of personnel expenses to the total balance sheet(PPE) included in our estimations. However, the former ratio is available for only
a small subset of our sample. Furthermore, empirical exercises reveal that results
based on PENE closely approximate those based on PPE. This is probably due to
the size of the sample used, which makes the results less sensitive to measurement
errors. The ratio of physical capital and other expenses to fixed assets is a proxy
of the price of capital. 5 In particular, the balance sheet item fixed assets appears
to be unrealistically low for some banks. However, the exclusion of outliers or a cor-
rection for fixed assets, such as applied by Resti (1997), did not lead to remarkable
changes in the estimation results.
Bank-specific factors (BSF) are additional explanatory variables which reflect dif-
ferences in risks, costs, size and structures of banks and should, at least theoretically,
stem from the marginal revenue and cost functions underlying the empirical PR Eq.
(8). The risk component can be proxied by the ratio of risk capital or equity to total
assets (EQ), the ratio of loans to total assets (LO) and the ratio of non-performing
5Capital expenses includes the cost of premises, equipment and information technology.
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loans to total loans (NPL). More than one variable for risk is considered, as there are
cases where one of these variables may be unavailable for a particular bank. The
ratio of interbank deposits to total customers and short-term funding (BDEP)
and the ratio of demand deposits from customers to total customer and short-termfunding (DDC) are used to capture differences in the deposit mix. Correspondent
bank activities are taken into consideration when the ratio of cash and due from de-
pository institutions (or banks) to total deposits (CDFB) is included. Total assets
(TA) are used as a scaling factor.
A positive parameter for LO is expected, because more loans reflect more potential
interest rate income. The coefficient for OI is probably negative as the generation of
other income may be at the expense of interest income. Regarding the signs of the
coefficients of the other explanatory variables, several writers hold conflicting theo-
ries 6 while others do not have a priori expectations.
3. Empirical results
3.1. Competition in the banking industry
The PR model has been applied to banks from 23 European and non-European
countries, as listed in Table 2. The data have been obtained from the database of the
International Bank Credit Analysis Ltd (Fitch-IBCA), a London-based bank credit
rating agency. In principle, data from individual banks are used for the years 1988
98, but the actual starting dates of the samples vary across countries. 7 For each
country, Table 2 reports the number of banks and available number of observa-
tions. 8 The total number of banks is 5444 and the total number of observations is
almost 29,000. Hence, on average, the sample includes more than 5 observations
(in fact years) for each bank, since some of the observations are lacking due to
non-reporting of (all relevant) data by banks in their annual report, mergers or
new entries in the sample period.
For each country, the model has been adopted to a sample of all banks, as well as
to subsamples of small banks, medium-sized banks and large banks, respectively.
This partition into small, medium-sized and large is based on total assets of thebanks: for each year, the smallest 50% of all banks of the world-wide sample consti-
tute the small-banks sample, the largest 10% of all banks constitute the large-bank
sample, whereas the remainder make up the medium-sized sample. The large-bank
6 For example, Molyneux et al. (1994) expect a negative coefficient for EQ, because less equity implies
more leverage and hence more interest income. However, on the other hand, capital requirements increase
proportionally with the risk on loans and investment portfolios, suggesting a positive coefficient.7 Data of earlier years would be less useful due to serious free entry restrictions in European countries.8 Note that ignoring observations of non-financial institutions, which also provide financial interme-
diation in some subdivision of the banking market, does not distort the current analysis, as the actual
(overall) competitive conditions are observed directly, irrespective of the providers of intermediation
services.
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sample was kept relatively small to ensure that only the really large banks are in-
cluded. The final numbers of observations are affected by the availability of data,
which actually appears to be correlated with the size of the bank. Of course, the size
distribution differs across the countries, see Table 2. An alternative would be to make
the size subdivision per country. However, the border between small and medium-
sized banks in, say, 1997 would then range from US$ 166 million in Denmark toUS$ 12,660 million in South Korea and between medium-sized and large banks
would range from US$ 2797 million in Germany to US$ 111,280 million in Canada.
This alternative is less desirable because it makes it very hard to compare subsamples
across countries 9 and, therefore, has not been considered.
Due to the small number of assumptions (mainly the cost minimisation and dual-
ity hypotheses) underlying the PR approach, the validity of the test is fairly general.
Nevertheless, a few caveats are in order. As we employ consolidated banking data,
the banking market of country X is defined as the hypothetical market where banks
Table 2
Sample period and number of observations per country
Country Sample
period
No. of
years
No. of
banks
No of observation per bank type
All Small Medium Large
Australia 199198 8 39 185 13 115 57
Austria 198998 10 95 434 226 176 32
Belgium 198998 10 85 479 217 194 68
Canada 198898 11 60 363 158 140 65
Denmark 199098 9 96 578 466 79 33
Finland 199098 9 14 77 10 32 35
France 198898 11 393 2489 812 1334 343
Germany 198898 11 2219 10,987 6765 3764 458
Greece 199098 9 22 102 46 37 19
Ireland 199298 7 35 143 15 112 16
Italy 198898 11 365 1943 813 897 233Japan 198998 10 148 1081 17 432 632
Korea (South) 199298 7 21 63 1 34 28
Luxembourg 199098 9 128 825 333 395 97
Netherlands 199198 8 57 307 99 145 63
New Zealand 199098 9 10 52 9 23 20
Norway 198998 10 39 220 74 120 26
Portugal 199198 8 41 268 70 144 54
Spain 199098 9 154 831 204 458 169
Sweden 198998 10 26 145 18 52 75
Switzerland 198898 11 385 1976 1414 485 77
UK 198998 10 213 1220 518 491 211
US 199198 8 799 4190 1383 2326 481
Total 5444 28,958 13,681 11,985 3292
In % 100.0 47.2 41.4 11.4
9 Then, for instance, (so-called) large banks in Denmark, Germany or Switzerland could be smaller
than (so-called) small banks in Finland, Japan or Korea.
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from country Xare active and not, say, the banking market within the national bor-
ders of that country. Moreover, banks operate in various segments of the market,
both geographically and in terms of banking products and, for that matter, also in
various input markets as well. This remark is particularly true of large universalbanks with sizeable foreign activities. These internationally active banks are obvi-
ously confronted by other competitive forces than small regional banks. The PR re-
sult H reflects only some kind of average over all these market segments. Finally, in
certain segments of the markets, banks face competition from non-bank financial in-
stitutions. However, the PR approach does not require observations of non-banks,
as the H statistic is a direct measure of the degree of competition taking competitive
effects from other institutions in its stride.
A critical feature of the Hstatistic is that the PR approach must be based on ob-
servations that are in long-run equilibrium. An equilibrium test exploits the fact that
in competitive capital markets, risk-adjusted rates of return will be equalised acrossbanks. In such a case, the return rates will not be correlated with input prices. 10 We
find that the hypothesis of equilibrium (H 0) cannot be rejected on the 95% signif-icance level, which justifies the applied methodology.
As an illustration, Appendix A presents tables with the estimation results of the
various bank-size categories for three countries. Tables for the other countries con-
sidered can be found in Bikker and Haaf (2000). 11 For New Zealand and South
Korea, the number of small banks is too small to make adequate estimations. Our
basic approach was to create a model for each country and bank size combination,
which included all selected bank-specific factors. Actually, for some countries, data
are unavailable for part of these variables, or available only for a limited number of
banks. In the latter case, we accepted only a slight reduction in the sample and other-
wise disregarded that particular variable. 12 Finally, BSF were deleted, if their coef-
ficients were not significant. This was done mainly to prevent the number of
observations from being reduced by the extra explanatory variables, and also for
economys sake. For the latter reason, insignificant coefficients of the time-trend
variable were also deleted. Sensitivity analyses confirm that the Hestimates are only
slightly, if at all, affected by the deletion of the non-significant variables.
The crucial variable H is equal to (b c d expeTIME) and, hence, depends on
TIME, provided e 6 0. In the latter cases, H has been calculated for 1991 as well as1997. The coefficient of the average funding rate, b, appears to be most significantand almost invariably positive and, hence, the main contributor to H. The coefficient
representing labour cost, c, is also significant and positive in most cases, but usually
smaller than b. The coefficient of the price of capital expenses, d, varies in size, sign
10 An equilibrium test is provided by Eq. (7), after replacement of the dependent variable by the rate of
return on total assets (ROA) or equity (ROE). H 0 would then indicate equilibrium, whereas H< 0would point to disequilibrium.
11 These tables are available upon request from the authors.12 For this reason, the number of observations of small, medium-sized and large banks of a country do
not necessarily add up to the number of all banks. This would only be the case if the model specification
were the same for all bank-size types.
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and level of significance, and is the least important component of H. The elasticity d
may also be small due to the poorer quality of capital expenses and fixed assets data,
which constitute the price level of capital expenses.
Finally, the coefficient of TIME, e, also varies in size, sign and level of significance.In fact, e is zero (because not significant) in 53% of all cases, indicating no significant
change in the competitive conditions. Where e is non-zero, e is positive in 34 out of
the 43 cases, which indicates that competition increases over time in 80% of these
cases (see Table 3, where His shown for both 1991 and 1997 ife 6 0). In the all-banksample, competition in 1997 was higher than in 1991 in all the non-zero cases, ex-
cept for Japan. However, these changes over time are fairly limited, on average 2.3
basis points (bps), which is much less than expected. Increase in competition is more
often observed for medium-sized and large banks than for small banks or the all-
bank sample, but with lower increases (1.6 bps versus, respectively, 2.3 and 3.3
bps). Growth in competition in EU countries has been higher than in non-EU coun-tries for all-bank sample and small banks, but lower for large banks. The latter result
is remarkable as stronger increases in competition for the EU were expected for all
bank size samples. Presumably, the rise in European competition, which had been
expected for 1997, has not yet materialised in that year.
Loans appear to be the most important BSF, both in terms of occurrence and level
of significance. Apparently, the ratio between loans and total assets, as a proxy of
risk, is an important factor in the total interest-to-income ratio. The signs of loans
and other income are in line with expectation (respectively, positive and negative)
for all country and sample-size combinations, apart from Greece where implausible
signs are found for small and medium-sized banks. In general, the regression results
are highly satisfactory, due in part to the large size of the samples: the estimation of
Happears to be very robust. Its value is hardly affected by specification choices, such
as those regarding the BSFs. Furthermore, the goodness of fit of the regression equa-
tions is satisfactory.
The tables in Appendix A and in Bikker and Haaf (2000) also present the esti-
mated values for H and test results for the hypothesis H 0 and 1. Table 3 reportsthese values for Hfor various bank-size samples and where applicable (e 6 0) forvarious years. The superscripts refer to the test results in the footnotes of the tables
in Appendix A and Bikker and Haaf (2000). Values of H for which the hypothesisH 0 is not rejected at a confidence level of 95% are in italics. Values of Hfor whichthe hypothesis H 1 is not rejected at the 95% (or 99%) level of confidence are inboldface (or boldface italics, respectively). 13
For all-banks samples of all 23 countries, both H 0 (perfect cartel 14) and H 1(perfect competition) are rejected convincingly, i.e. at the 99% level of confidence,
13 Where the probability of the null hypothesis is 5% or more the null hypothesis is accepted or not
rejected; if the probability of the null hypothesis is below 1%, the null hypothesis is rejected, and if the
probability of the null hypothesis is between 1% and 5% we posit that the null hypothesis is rejected at the
(stringent) 99% confidence level.14 In all countries, the number of banks is far greater than 1. Hence, H 0 reflects perfect collusion or
cartel rather than monopoly.
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and for nearly all countries even at the 99.9% level. This would imply monopolistic
competition in all countries, without exception. However, this uniform picture be-
comes more diversified when the banking market is split into segments: the market
for (i) small banks operating mostly on a local scale, (ii) middle-sized banks operat-
ing both locally and nationally, and (iii) large banks which also operate internation-
ally. For small banks in one country, Australia, the hypothesis H 0 cannot berejected, which suggests that this market is characterised by perfect collusion. Note,
however, that this result is based on an unusually small sample size of 13 observa-tions. In any case, this result suggests a lower level of competition. For a number
of bank-size and country combinations, the hypothesis H 1 cannot be rejected,
Table 3
Empirical results for H for various bank-size samples and various years
All banks Small banks Medium-sized
banks
Large banks
1991 1997 1991 1997 1991 1997 1991 1997
Australia 0.50a 0.57a 0.14b 0.67a 0.70a 0.63a 0.68a
Austria 0.87a 0.93b 0.91a 0.89a 0.91c
Belgium 0.89a 0.95b 0.88c 0.86a 0.88a
Canada 0.60a 0.62a 0.74a 0.63a 0.56a 0.60a
Denmark 0.32a 0.36a 0.31a 0.34a 0.75a 1.16b
Finland 0.78a 0.67b 0.76c 0.70a
France 0.70a 0.54a 0.59a 0.74a 0.79a 0.89b
Germany 0.60a 0.63a 0.56a 0.59a 0.68a 0.70a 1.05b 1.03b
Greece 0.76a 0.41b 0.66a 1.01c 0.94c
Ireland 0.65a
0.99b
0.63a
0.93c
Italy 0.82a 0.75a 0.89a 0.86a 0.83a 0.81a
Japan 0.58a 0.54a 0.43b 0.07c 0.11c 0.64a 0.61a
Korea (South) 0.68a 0.72b 0.77c
Luxembourg 0.93a 0.94b 0.94b 0.95b 0.90a 0.91a
Netherlands 0.75a 0.74b 0.87a 0.91c 0.95c
New Zealand 0.86a 1.11b 1.13c 0.86d
Norway 0.74a 0.77a 0.80a 0.71a 0.75a 0.66a 0.71a
Portugal 0.83a 0.84b 0.88a 0.84a 0.91c
Spain 0.55a 0.62a 0.56a 0.64a 0.52a 0.59a 0.61a 0.66a
Sweden 0.80a 0.84b 0.69a 0.76a 0.95c
Switzerland 0.55a 0.58a 0.51a 0.54a 0.95b 0.92c 1.01d
United Kingdom 0.61a 0.64a 0.41a 0.81a 0.85a 1.20aUnited States 0.54a 0.56a 0.61a 0.62a 0.53a 0.54a 0.68a 0.72a
Averages 0.70 0.64 0.75 0.86
Maximum 0.93 0.99 1.12 1.20
Minimum 0.34 0.14 0.09 0.58Avgs Europe 0.72 0.68 0.79 0.91
Avgs RoW 0.63 0.41 0.63 0.70
For each country, the superscripts refer to the acceptance or rejection of the null hypothesis H 0 andH 1, as is explained in the footnotes of the respective tables in Appendix A and Bikker and Haaf (2000).Averages: Where the underlying model includes a time trend, averages are taken over H-values of 1991 and
1997. Subsequently, averages are taken over the 23 countries.
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implying that these markets may be characterised by perfect competition. This holds
in particular for a number of the large-bank markets. For Danish large banks, H is
significant larger than 1, which may indicate a deviating market structure, such as
conjectural variation oligopoly (see Section 2).A shortcoming of the PR test may be the fact that it is single-tailed, in the sense
that a positive value rejects any form of imperfect competition (under the assump-
tion of profit-maximising behaviour and at least short-term competition), whereas
a negative value is consistent with various types of market power. 15 However, this
shortcoming is of little consequence for this article, as H6 0 is rejected in all cases
but one.
Based on the result of Vesala (1995, p. 56), we interpret H between 0 and 1 as a
continuous measure of the level of competition, in the sense that higher values of
H indicate stronger competition than lower values. The values of H are comparable
across national or bank-size markets if the revenue equation, the perceived demandelasticity and its sensitivity to the number of banks (oe=on) are identical for the var-ious markets. 16 In particular, the latter cannot be observed, so the following conclu-
sions are under reservations that the necessary assumptions hold. The averages
across all countries (bottom rows of Table 3) make clear that H is substantially be-
low average for small-bank markets (0.64), somewhat greater for medium-sized bank
markets (0.75) and greatest for large-bank markets (0.86). Apparently, in line with
expectations, smaller banks operate in a less competitive environment than larger
banks, or, put differently, local markets are less competitive than national and inter-
national markets. The 0.640.86 spread should be seen as the lower limit of the actual
difference in competition between local and international markets, as small banks do
not solely operate on local markets but may also be active on the national markets;
similarly large banks do not exclusively operate on international markets. The differ-
ence in the degree of competition between local and international markets is not only
reflected in the overall averages, but also in many of the national figures. The values
ofHfor small-bank markets range from 0.14 to 0.99, whereas for large banks theyrange from 0.58 to above 1.
In Europe, all large banks appear to operate in a highly competitive environment.
Exceptions are two Scandinavian countries (Finland and Norway) and Spain with H
values around 0.7. Competition among smaller banks is weak in Greece, Denmarkand the UK, and limited in France, Germany, Spain and Switzerland. In general,
competition seems to be weaker in non-European countries. In the US, Canada
and Australia, for instance, H ranges from 0.5 to 0.7, and in Europe from 0.7 to
0.9. Of course, this conclusion does not necessarily hold for all market segments.
In Japan competition is, in fact slightly weaker while in New Zealand and South
Korea it is somewhat stronger. It should be kept in mind, however, that these com-
parisons ofHacross countries are based on more far-reaching assumptions than are
made in the standard PR test (see above). The structure of the European banking
15 See e.g. Bresnahan (1989), Shaffer and DiSalvo (1994) and Toolsema (2002).16 These are sufficient but not necessary requirements.
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industry has altered during the 1980s mostly as in response to domestic deregulation
and in anticipation of EU-wide regulatory changes. One of the major consequences
has been increased competition, see Gual and Neven (1993) and Molyneux et al.
(1996). Gardener and Molyneux (1990) explained how mergers in Europe often con-tributed to the forming of groups of local and regional based banks that could com-
pete effectively with the large, dominant banks. In a number of countries outside
Europe, liberalisation and deregulation took place somewhat later, e.g. in the US,
where the 1994 RiegleNeal Act ending a ban on lending and branch operations
across state borders, and where in 1999, the GlassSteagall Act was repealed, which
has prevented firms from combining banking and insurance activities. These trends
may well have contributed to the observed differences in degrees of competition in-
side and outside Europe.
In order to show what effect our choice for interest revenue as dependent variable
in the PR model had on the outcome, Appendix B contrasts our results with thosebased on total revenue as dependent variable for the Netherlands, where the share of
non-interest revenue in total revenue averages 16%. As the financial intermediation
model underlying the PR theory does not apply to the activities generating non-
interest revenues, it comes as no surprise that the fit of the PR model (measured
by R2) is much lower for total revenue (0.60) than for interest revenue (0.90). In
the total-revenue variant, the estimated value of H is substantially lower, which is
plausible because the input price funding costs is generally not relevant for the
non-interest revenue activities. Nevertheless, this value of H still points to the same
conclusion that the market is characterised by monopolistic competition. Inclusion
of other income as an independent variable hardly affects the outcome. Similar re-
sults are obtained for other countries. All in all, this sensitivity analysis confirms that
total revenue is less appropriate as input for the PR model than interest revenue.
A comparison between our results and those in the literature is shown in Table 4,
which summarises the results of other studies applying the PR model. Shaffer
(1982), in his pioneering study on New York banks, observed monopolistic compe-
tition. For Canadian banks, Nathan and Neave (1989) found perfect competition for
1982 and monopolistic competition for 1983, 1984. Lloyd-Williams et al. (1991) and
Molyneux et al. (1996) revealed perfect collusion for Japan. Molyneux et al. (1994)
obtained values for H which, for 198689, are significantly different from both zeroand unity for France, Germany (except for 1987 when monopoly was found), Spain
and the UK, indicating monopolistic competition. For Italy during 198789, the
monopoly hypothesis could not be rejected. The strong shifts in H over the years
are less plausible, let alone those in market structure. Our pooled time series
cross-section approach ensures less volatile results. Unlike Molyneux et al., Cocco-
rese (1998), who also analysed the Italian banking sector, obtained values for H
which were at the least non-negative and even significantly different from zero.
The value of H also differed significantly from unity, except in 1992 and 1994.
For the Finnish banking industry in the years 198592, Vesala (1995) found con-
sistently positive values ofH, which differed significantly from zero and unity in 1989and 1990 only. De Bandt and Davis (2000) investigated banking markets in France,
Germany and Italy for groups of large and small banks. They obtained estimates of
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H which were significantly different from zero and unity for large banks in all three
countries. The Hstatistics estimated for the small-banks sample indicate monopolis-
tic competition in Italy, and monopoly power in France and Germany. The latter
results are in flat contradiction to our findings. For Switzerland, Rime (1999) ob-
served monopolistic competition. Like Rime, Bikker and Groeneveld (2000) applied
the PR method to 15 EU-countries without, however, distinguishing between size
classes. Their results are rather similar to ours, except for the larger countries, where
they used smaller samples of (only) the largest banks. Their H-values for these coun-
tries may therefore be regarded as overestimations.
In some respects, the empirical PR studies present far from uniform outcomes.
Yet except in the case of Japan and, according to some authors, Italy, they all point
to the existence of monopolistic competition in the countries considered.
3.2. Market structure and competition
Given the current wave of mergers in the EU banking market and the expectation
of continued or even accelerating consolidation, concerns have been voiced as to
competitive conditions in the EU banking markets, especially in some market seg-
ments, such as local and retail markets. More precisely, the question emerges
whether market concentration might affect the conduct of banks or the degree of
competition. Theoretically, the existence of a relationship between market structure
and banks behaviour is indicated by, among others, the PR model. Where, in theliterature, the impact of the banking market structure on bank performance has been
examined exhaustively employing the SCP paradigm the relevance of market
Table 4
PR model results in other studies
Authors Period Countries considered Results
Shaffer (1982) 1979 New York Monopolistic competitionNathan and Neave (1989) 198284 Canada 1982: perfect comp.; 1983,
1984: monopolistic
competition
Lloyd-Williams et al. (1991) 198688 Japan Monopoly
Molyneux et al. (1994) 198689 France, Germany, Italy,
Spain and United
Kingdom
Mon.: Italy; mon. comp.:
France, Germany, Spain, UK
Vesala (1995) 198592 Finland Monopolistic competition for
all but two years
Molyneux et al. (1996) 198688 Japan Monopoly
Coccorese (1998) 198896 Italy Monopolistic competition
Rime (1999) 198794 Switzerland Monopolistic competition
Bikker and Groeneveld
(2000)
198996 15 EU countries Monopolistic competition
De Bandt and Davis (2000) 199296 France, Germany and
Italy
Large banks: mon. comp. in
all countries; small banks:
mon. comp. in Italy, monopoly
in France, Germany
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structure for conduct or competitive conditions has been almost entirely ignored. 17
The present section aims at examining this disregarded relationship and seeks to as-
sess a possible impact of the number of banks and the banking market concentration
on competition.As was observed above, the PR approach provides a link between number of
banks and competition. However, as a description of the market structure, the num-
ber of banks is a rather limited concept. For instance, it fully ignores the size distri-
bution of banks (or inequality) in a given market. As concentration indices, weighted
averages of banks market shares, take both the size distribution and the number of
banks into account, they are often used as a simple proxy of the market structure.
Apart from the number of banks itself, we also use two-frequently applied-types
of such indices as a proxy. 18 The first is the so-called k-bank concentration ratio
(CRk) which takes the market shares of the klargest banks in the market and ignores
the remaining banks in that market. This index is based on the idea that the behav-iour of a market is dominated by a small number of large banks. The second index
we use is the Herfindahl index (HI), which takes market shares as weights, and stres-
ses the importance of larger banks by assigning them a greater weight than smaller
banks. It includes each bank separately and differently, and thereby avoids an arbi-
trary cut-off and insensitivity to the share distribution.
Table 5 presents the 1997 HI and CRk, for k 3, 5 and 10, for all 23 countriesanalysed earlier. Total assets have been taken as the measure of bank size. The value
of the k-bank concentration ratios (for various values ofk) always exceeds the value
of the HI, since the latter gives less prominence to the markets shares (the weights
again being market shares) than the former (unit weights). The results for the various
index values are rather similar, displaying a high degree of correlation. The strongest
correlations are found between CR3 and CR5, CR5 and CR10, and, surprisingly, HI
and CR3. In terms of ranking, the correlation between HI and CR3 is, at 98%, by far
the strongest. This demonstrates that the HI is determined mainly by (the squares of
the market shares of) the large banks, which puts into perspective the alleged draw-
back of the CRk indices vis-aa-vis the HI, i.e. that they ignore the influence of smaller
banks.
For countries where the number of banks in the available sample is low, as in Fin-
land, Korea and New Zealand, results are less reliable. High concentration rates arefound in Denmark, Greece, the Netherlands and Switzerland, where the largest three
banks take more than two-thirds of the total market in terms of total assets. In Can-
ada, concentration is high only when at least five banks are taken into consideration.
Switzerland is the most highly concentrated country according to HI, which may
seem remarkable given the large number of banks in that country. Increasing the
sample of Swiss banks to more than three hardly increases the concentration rate.
Concentration appears to be low in France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the
17 See Calem and Carlino (1991) for an example of the empirical approximation of conduct.18 Both indices, CRk and HI, can be derived as proxies for market structure in theoretical SCP
relationships, see Bikker and Haaf (2001).
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US, where the largest three have a combined share of less than one-third. By all mea-
sures, concentration is lowest in the US. Germany, where the number of banks in our
sample is largest, takes the last place but one in concentration.
All types of indices appear to be inversely correlated to the number of banks. This
is owing to a well-known weakness of concentration indices, namely their depen-
dency on the size of a country or banking market. The smaller the country or thenumber of its banks, the larger its measure of concentration. In the empirical anal-
ysis below, we attempt to solve this problem by taking the number of banks into ac-
count explicitly. Table 5 is based on the Fitch-IBCA data set, used for the PR
analysis in Section 3.1. This sample does not include all banks, which for some coun-
tries might distort the concentration index value. However, this effect is limited as the
ignored market segment consists mainly of the smallest banks. This problem, too, is
considered in the empirical analysis below. Another shortcoming of concentration
indices is that non-bank financial institutions are ignored. As competition from
non-banks is mainly related to some segments of the banking market, such as mort-
gage lending, it is difficult to correct for that in the present broadtotal assets
mea-
sure of concentration. Finally, the Fitch-IBCA data set consists of consolidated
figures and does not distinguish between domestic and foreign operations. For that
Table 5
Concentration indices for 23 countries, based on total assets (1997)
Herfindahl index CR3 CR5 CR10 No. of banks
Australia 0.14 0.57 0.77 0.90 31Austria 0.14 0.53 0.64 0.77 78
Belgium 0.12 0.52 0.75 0.87 79
Canada 0.14 0.54 0.82 0.94 44
Denmark 0.17 0.67 0.80 0.91 91
Finland 0.24 0.73 0.91 1.00 12
France 0.05 0.30 0.45 0.64 336
Germany 0.03 0.22 0.31 0.46 1803
Greece 0.20 0.66 0.82 0.94 22
Ireland 0.17 0.65 0.73 0.84 30
Italy 0.04 0.27 0.40 0.54 331
Japan 0.06 0.39 0.49 0.56 140
Korea (South) 0.11 0.45 0.68 0.96 13
Luxembourg 0.03 0.20 0.30 0.49 118
Netherlands 0.23 0.78 0.87 0.93 45
New Zealand 0.18 0.63 0.90 n.a. 8
Norway 0.12 0.56 0.67 0.81 35
Portugal 0.09 0.40 0.57 0.82 40
Spain 0.08 0.45 0.56 0.69 140
Sweden 0.12 0.53 0.73 0.92 21
Switzerland 0.26 0.72 0.77 0.82 325
United Kingdom 0.06 0.34 0.47 0.68 186
United States 0.02 0.15 0.23 0.38 717
Averages/total 0.12 0.49 0.64 0.73 4645
Standard deviations 0.07 0.18 0.20 0.18
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reason, the concentration index values for small countries with large international
banks are overestimated. 19 This is illustrated in Table 6, where market shares for
total assets, loans and non-bank deposits are presented for the ten banks with the
largest balance-sheet total in the sample.
The market shares of even the largest banks in France, Germany, Japan and the
UK are modest, suggesting that, on a national or market-wide scale, these banks
have limited market power. Of course, the situation may be different in particular
market segments or local areas. Large banks in small countries, such as UBS of Swit-
zerland and ABN-Amro of the Netherlands, do command substantial market shares,
although in the case of ABN-Amro, for instance, domestic business is less than half
of total business, while for UBS the ratio is even less than one in four. After correc-
tion for foreign operations (which, by the way, affects both the denominator and the
numerator of the shares), the market shares for ABN-Amro are almost 30% smaller, 20
though still sizeable. To some extent, the indices (such as CR3) do indeed reflect the
higher concentration in the Netherlands and Switzerland. At the same time, ABN-
Amro and UBS may be facing stiff competition on other (foreign) markets.In order to investigate the relationship between competition and market structure
in the banking industry, we related the Hstatistic for all banks, 21 a measure of com-
petition, to the concentration index (CI) and the logarithm of the number of banks in
the markets (log n) as representatives of the market structure. Despite the various
shortcomings, already noted, which concentration index may have as a proxy of
Table 6
Market shares of the ten largest banks in the sample (1997)
Bank Country Market shares National
Total assets Loans Deposits H CR3
1. UBS AG Swi 0.36 0.46 0.45 1.01 0.72
2. Deutsche Bank AG Ger 0.09 0.09 0.12 1.03 0.22
3. HSBC Holdings Plc UK 0.14 0.14 0.15 1.20 0.34
4. Bayerische Hypo- und
VereinsbankaGer 0.09 0.07 0.04 1.03 0.22
5. Creedit Agricole CA Fra 0.14 0.11 0.13 0.89 0.30
6. Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank Ltd
DKB
Jap 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.61 0.39
7. ABN Amro Holding N.V. Neth 0.34 0.39 0.41 0.95 0.78
8. Socieetee Geeneerale Fra 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.89 0.30
9. Norinchukin Bank Jap 0.08 0.13 0.11 0.61 0.6110. Sakura Bank Limited Jap 0.16 0.13 0.12 0.61 0.61
a Pro forma.
19 A similar distortion does not occur in the PR analysis, where any link to national borders is absent.
There, the level of competition of a country is the average level of competition on the markets where its
banks operate.20 Not in the 50% region lower, due to the denominator effect.21 It would not be sensible to split the concentration index into indices for small, medium-sized and
large banks. Hence the analysis is based on the all-banks sample of H and the concentration indices.
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the market structure, we nevertheless, for want of anything better, examined how it
acts in the empirical relationship in question. The estimated values of H were taken
from the all-bank sample. Concentration indices are one-dimensional measures tak-
ing account of two dimensions, i.e. the number of banks, indicating the density ofthe banking market, and their size distribution, indicating skewness. Some concen-
tration indices can be rewritten as measures of the distribution and the number of
banks. For instance, the Herfindahl index can be rewritten as 22
HI g20 1=n 9
where g20 is the variation coefficient of the bank-size distribution. In our empirical
analysis, we restore this two-dimensionality, describing the market structure by both
the CI and the number of banks. Here we have used logarithms to scale the variable
n. There is another reason why inclusion of the number of banks makes sense. Below
Table 5, we recorded the dependency of concentration indices on the size of a
country or banking market. By including the number of its banks (as proxy of the
banking market size) in the regression equation, we correct for this distortion. At the
same time, the effect on the CI of a limited sample size (as is the case for some
countries) is compensated for. Hence, the estimated regression is given by
H a0 a1CI a2 log n a3dummy Europe: 10
A dummy variable Europe is included because H is substantially higher for Europe
than for non-European banking markets, which may be due to economic and in-stitutional conditions. The upper part of Table 7 presents regression results for Eq.
(10) for four CIs. 23 For all four regressions, the coefficient of the concentration
index shows the expected negative sign, indicating that competition is decreasing
with increasing market concentration. The significance of CR3 is highest (highest t-
value), while the effect of CR10 on competition is strongest (taking into account the
indices standard deviation). The results support the view that the share of the k
largest banks (k being 3, 5 or 10) rather than the entire size distribution of banks in
a market, is the strongest determinant for the competitive conditions in a market.
In principle, a larger number of banks indicates more potential for competition.
For that reason, one would expect to see a coefficient with a positive sign. Yet, wher-
ever the size distribution is heavily skewed and just a few banks dominate the mar-
ket, a large number of banks merely indicates that there is a broad fringe of
powerless dwarfs. The larger the number of banks, the less opportunity each
22 See Bikker and Haaf (2001, Eq. (2.5)).23 Alternatively, the observations for the 23 countries could also be weighted by log n as a measure (or
proxy) of the respective banking-market size. In this way, we could take account of the magnitude of the
banking market in each country, weighting Germany, France and Italy heavier than, say, Greece, Ireland
and Sweden. At the same time, lower weights would be allocated to countries where the sample size is
limited and the variables are therefore somewhat less reliable, as is the case for Finland, South Korea and
New Zealand. Incidentally, the weighted regression results appear to be similar to the unweighted
outcomes of Table 7, while the level of significance is even substantial higher for CI and log(n).
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has to assert its influence and increase competition. The latter effect appears to be
dominant, as the net effect of the number of banks on competition is negative. 24 Ob-
viously, in situations, typically measured by the CRk indices, where a few large banks
occupy a large share of the market, market power is exercised more heavily. The
dummy variable for Europe proves to be significant for all four regression equations,
indicating the different institutional and economic conditions faced by European
banks, which are disregarded by the other explanatory variables.It is no easy task to find out which differences cause the diverging levels of com-
petition between European and non-European banks. We found that if the share of
bank demand deposits in total assets is included in Eq. (10), the Europe dummy be-
comes insignificant and may be dropped, see the lower part of Table 7. This share
reflects an aspect of banks average funding habits: European banks make more ex-
tensive use of the interbank market for funding. We may have hit on an important
variable here, 25 but a convincing theoretical explanation is lacking. One possible ex-
planation is that where banking and financial markets are more developed, (i) the
interbank market is more developed and (ii) competition is more intense. If this is
true, then the share of bank deposits acts as an indicator of financial sophistication.The above provides evidence that conduct such as competitive behaviour may in-
deed be related to characteristics of the market structure such as concentration and
number of banks. A Wald test, which assesses the significance of the coefficients
of the CI and the number of banks simultaneously, confirms this conclusion. 26
Table 7
Relationship between competition and concentration for the all-bank sample
HI CR3 CR5 CR10
Constant 1.01 (7.0) 1.23 (7.1) 1.31 (5.5) 1.54 (4.6)Concentration Index 0.93 (1.9) 0.53 (2.9) 0.47 (2.3) 0.65 (2.5)Log n 0.07 (2.8) 0.09 (3.6) 0.10 (3.2) 0.11 (3.0)Dummy (Europe) 0.15 (2.3) 0.16 (2.8) 0.14 (2.3) 0.17 (2.9)
R2
0.25 0.37 0.30 0.35
Constant 0.90 (7.0) 1.05 (6.6) 1.14 (5.3) 1.33 (4.5)
Concentration Index 0.71 (1.8) 0.38 (2.4) 0.37 (2.1) 0.51 (2.4)Log n 0.07 (3.1) 0.08 (3.6) 0.09 (3.3) 0.10 (3.1)Share of bank deposits 0.85 (3.6) 0.83 (3.7) 0.80 (3.5) 0.89 (4.0)
R2
0.42 0.48 0.45 0.50
Note: T-values in parenthesis. The critical value of the one sided t-value test is 1.73 and that of the two-
sided t-value test is 2.09.
24 An alternative formulation is that the effect of the number of banks, as taken into account by the CI,
is overestimated (implying low values for the CI value in large countries and vice versa).25 As suggested, for instance, by the better fit in Table 7, when the share of interbank deposits is
included.26 For all (eight) equations in Table 7, and also in the weighted regressions (not shown), a hypothetical
value of zero for both coefficients is rejected at the 95% level of confidence.
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The evidence is only modest, however, as Eq. (10) is not very robust. For instance, if
the Europe dummy is deleted, the significance of the other parameters drops dramat-
ically. Nevertheless, the continuing process of consolidation in the banking industry
may raise the policy makers concern about competitive conditions in the bankingmarkets. This concern, however, is very often related not so much to entire markets
as to market segments, such as, for instance, deposits or certain geographical areas.
Unfortunately, the limited availability of data makes it impossible to make more re-
fined analyses.
4. Conclusions
The ongoing dramatic structural changes in the banking industry, particularly in
Europe, may affect competition, especially on local markets and for banks retailservices. This article sought to assess competitive conditions and concentration in
the banking markets of as many as 23 industrialised countries inside and outside
Europe over approximately 10 years. In addition, it investigated the interaction be-
tween competition and concentration. The PanzarRosse approach has been ap-
plied to obtain a measure of competitive conditions in to 23 countries over a
time span of more than 10 years. The resulting H statistic provides strong evidence
that the banking markets in the industrial world are characterised by monopolistic
competition, but perfect competition cannot be ruled out in some cases.
We have attempted to take account of the geographical and even the product di-
mension of banking operations by defining three sub-markets in terms of bank sizes
for each country and have estimated their degree of competition. Competition is
stronger among large banks operating predominantly in international markets
and weaker among small banks operating mainly in local markets while medium-
sized banks take an intermediate position. In some countries, perfect competition has
been found among large banks. For a number of countries, estimates of the Hstatistic
over time indicate a significant increase in competition. Competition seems to be
somewhat stronger in Europe than in countries like the US, Canada and Japan.
Thanks to the large sample and the pooled regression approach, our results are fairly
robust. Generally speaking, our findings are in keeping with comparable studies in theliterature, which also point to monopolistic competition in most countries.
Concentration in the banking markets of 23 industrialised countries was measured
using various k-bank concentration ratios and the Herfindahl index. Empirical stud-
ies concerning the impact of market structure on banks conduct are rare. In order to
investigate this relationship, the estimated H-values indicating competition are used
as proxies of conduct and are related both to the concentration indices considered
and to the absolute number of banks operating in these markets, acting together
as a proxy of the market structure. The impact of both market structure measures
on competition appears to be significant, most markedly so when the k-bank concen-
tration indices are used. The latter confirms the observation that a few large (cartel)banks can restrict competition and that a multitude of fringe competitors is unable to
engender competition.
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Appendix A. Estimation results of the PR models for four countries and various size
classes (Tables 810)
Table 9
Empirical results for the Netherlands (199198)
All banks Small banks Medium-sized banks Large banks
Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values
Funding rate 0.75 48.5 0.70 23.1 0.85 48.9 0.67 19.1
Wage rate 0.08 5.0 0.01 0.2 0.06 4.7 0.09 9.2
Capital price 0.07 2.9 0.05 0.3 0.05 2.2 0.12 4.3
Time 6.80 4.4
Loans ratio 0.04 3.4 0.04 4.76 0.27 4.8
Other income 0.05 5.1 0.06 3.1 0.03 2.9
Total assets 0.01 2.3 0.03 3.2 0.02 3.1
Equity 0.12 8.7 0.14 5.6 0.07 4.5
Intercept 0.73 8.8 1.31 7.9 0.44 4.5 0.20 1.6
Adj. R2 0.90 0.90 0.95 0.95
No. of observa-
tions
296 96 139 61
H (199197) 0.75a 0.74b 0.87a 0.91c 0.95c
aH 0 and H 1 rejected (level of confidence 99.9%).bH 1 not rejected (level of confidence 95%); the F-statistic is 2.33 and the probability level (of the null
hypothesis) is 13.0%.cH 1 not rejected (level of confidence 95%); the F-statistic is, respectively, 2.72 and 0.92, and the
probability level (of the null hypothesis) is, respectively, 10.5% and 34.1%.
Table 8Empirical results for Germany (198898)
All banks Small banks Medium-sized banks Large banks
Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values
Funding rate 0.45 74.1 0.39 53.7 0.50 50.9 0.92 28.1
Wage rate 0.13 35.9 0.13 27.5 0.16 25.4 0.14 17.2
Capital price 0.00 0.3 0.01 4.8 0.01 2.3 0.00 0.1
Time 7.07 19.0 9.68 18.8 4.72 9.3 2.32 2.6
Loans ratio 0.07 32.0 0.09 33.0 0.04 10.0
Other income 0.05 23.6 0.06 21.0 0.05 13.7
Total assets 0.01 8.9 0.03 4.7
Bank deposits 0.01 6.8 0.00 2.1 0.01 6.0 0.12 12.5Equity 0.04 12.5 0.02 5.3 0.03 5.4 0.22 18.5
Dem. Dep. C. 0.01 4.5 0.02 8.2
Cash & DFB 0.01 7.3 0.01 7.0 0.01 5.4
Intercept 0.64 26.3 0.83 27.6 0.45 11.2 1.05 8.8
Adj. R2 0.69 0.69 0.71 0.84
No. of observa-
tions
10 513 6523 3672 458
H (199197) 0.60a 0.63a 0.56a 0.59a 0.68a 0.70a 1.05b 1.03b
aH 0 and H 1 rejected (level of confidence 99.9%).bH 1 not rejected (level of confidence 95%).
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Appendix B. The dependent variable: Interest revenue versus total revenue (Table 11)
Table 10
Empirical results for the United States (199198)
All banks Small banks Medium-sized
banks
Large banks
Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values
Funding rate 0.40 46.7 0.40 29.0 0.40 35.8 0.43 19.6
Wage rate 0.07 13.7 0.18 16.1 0.06 8.4 0.13 8.7
Capital price 0.06 19.7 0.02 3.2 0.06 14.1 0.10 15.4
Time 3.62 4.4 3.08 2.9 3.52 3.0 8.01 4.8
Loans ratio 0.12 20.0 0.09 11.2 0.12 14.1 0.21 18.3
Other income 0.04 6.4
Total assets 0.02 10.1 0.02 4.5
Equity 0.06 7.4 0.03 2.5 0.05 4.7
Non-performing
loans
0.01 4.3 0.01 3.7
Cash & DFB 0.03 11.9 0.02 5.2 0.04 9.6
Intercept 0.76 16.3 0.63 8.3 0.76 11.2 0.02 2.6
Adj. R2 0.51 0.48 0.52 0.70
No. of observa-
tions
3835 1350 2216 463
H (199197) 0.54a 0.56a 0.61a 0.62a 0.53a 0.54a 0.68a 0.72a
aH 0 and H 1 rejected (level of confidence 99.9%).
Table 11
Empirical results for the Netherlands for interest revenue and total revenue (all banks; 199198)
Interest revenue Total revenue
Including other
income
Excluding other
income
Including other
income
Excluding other
income
Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values Coefficient t-values
Funding rate 0.75 48.5 0.76 47.8 0.48 17.6 0.47 17.0
Wage rate 0.08 5.0 0.01 2.0 0.07 2.5 0.16 13.3
Capital price 0.07 2.9 0.01 1.6 0.01 0.7 0.02 1.3Time
Loans ratio 0.04 3.4 0.04 3.4 0.04 1.6 0.02 1.0
Other income 0.05 5.1 0.06 3.5
Total assets 0.01 2.3 0.01 1.4 0.01 1.1 0.00 0.4Equity 0.12 8.7 0.11 7.6 0.07 2.9 0.08 3.3
Intercept 0.73 8.8 0.67 8.0 0.51 3.5 0.50 34
Adj. R2 0.90 0.90 0.59 0.57
No. of observa-
tions
296 296 296 296
H (199197) 0.75a 0.77a 0.56a 0.65a
aH 0 and H 1 rejected (level of confidence 99.9%).
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