collaborative research: a heat budget analysis of the arctic climate system

Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington

Oct 3, 2007SASS Mtg,

Alexandria, VA

Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System

Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater

CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

Michael Steele

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA

Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System

Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater

CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

Michael Steele

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA



Alexandria, VAObjectives:

Examine the Arctic climate system from the integrating viewpoint of its large-scale heat budget

Synthesize information from:

• ERA-40 and NCEP reanalyses• Oceanographic obs

• Terrestrial obs• Satellite obs

• Land surface models• Coupled ice-ocean models

Objectives:

Examine the Arctic climate system from the integrating viewpoint of its large-scale heat budget

Synthesize information from:

• ERA-40 and NCEP reanalyses• Oceanographic obs

• Terrestrial obs• Satellite obs

• Land surface models• Coupled ice-ocean models



Alexandria, VASome Products

…(all 2007)

Serreze, M, A Barrett, A Slater, M Steele, J Zhang, K Trenberth (2007) The large-scale energy budget of the ArcticJ Geophys Res, 112

Serreze, M, A Barrett, J Stroeve, M Holland (2007) Emerging arctic amplification as seen in the NCEP/NCAR

reanalysis submitted to Geophys Res Lett

Steele, M, W Ermold and J Zhang (2007) Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the 20th centurysubmitted to Geophys Res Lett

Stroeve, J, M Holland, W Meier, T Scambos, M Serreze (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecastGeophys Res Lett, 34

Polyakov, I, M Steele, lots of et als (2007) Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to warmer

stateEOS, this week

Serreze, M, A Barrett, A Slater, M Steele, J Zhang, K Trenberth (2007) The large-scale energy budget of the ArcticJ Geophys Res, 112

Serreze, M, A Barrett, J Stroeve, M Holland (2007) Emerging arctic amplification as seen in the NCEP/NCAR

reanalysis submitted to Geophys Res Lett

Steele, M, W Ermold and J Zhang (2007) Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the 20th centurysubmitted to Geophys Res Lett

Stroeve, J, M Holland, W Meier, T Scambos, M Serreze (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecastGeophys Res Lett, 34

Polyakov, I, M Steele, lots of et als (2007) Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to warmer

stateEOS, this week



Alexandria, VALinkages to explore

SASS I:

• Perovich: albedo & summer ocean warming

• Rigor: air temperature trends vs. ocean trends

• Miles: climate modes’ role in warming

• Walker: marine warming terrestrial ecosystem response?

SASS I:

• Perovich: albedo & summer ocean warming

• Rigor: air temperature trends vs. ocean trends

• Miles: climate modes’ role in warming

• Walker: marine warming terrestrial ecosystem response?

SASS II:

• Zhang: ocean warming plankton response? (modeling)

• Matrai: ocean warming plankton response? (obs)

SASS II:

• Zhang: ocean warming plankton response? (modeling)

• Matrai: ocean warming plankton response? (obs)

probably others we’ve missed…



Alexandria, VA

-FA Fsfc

EA/t

The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic(annual mean, seasonal cycle)

Serreze, Barrett, Slater, Steele (2007)

Atmospheric Column

Atmospheric Column

EIOL/t -(FO – FI)

Ice/Ocean/Land ColumnIce/Ocean/Land Column

• ERA40• NCEP re-analysis• ERBE

• Vinje obs.• J. Zhang model• Climatology (PHC)

FFTOATOA



Alexandria, VA

Net Annual Surface Heat Flux(ERA-40)

Net Annual Surface Heat Flux(ERA-40)

W/m2

upup

downdown…too much?…too much?

LWtop too big

SeasonalEnergy Budget

(ERA-40)

SeasonalEnergy Budget

(ERA-40)



Alexandria, VAObserved Sea Ice

Decline: Faster than Forecast

Compiled by NSIDC

Stroeve, Holland, Meier, Scambos, Serreze (2007)

20072007

4.134.13



Alexandria, VA

The Emergence of Arctic AmplificationThe Emergence of Arctic Amplification

Modeled Future SATModeled Future SAT

Serreze, Barrett, Stroeve, Holland (2007)

summersummer

winterwinter winterwinter

ice thinning winter surface warming

Observed TemperatureAnomalies

(NCEP Oct-Dec, rel. to 1979-1999)

Observed TemperatureAnomalies

(NCEP Oct-Dec, rel. to 1979-1999)

It’s starting to happen!



Alexandria, VAsummer (Jul-Aug-Sep)

Arctic Seas Ocean Surface Warming over the 20th century

World Ocean Database ’05(in situ data)

Steele, Ermold, Zhang(GRL submitted ’07)

summer (JAS)

Sea Surface Temp(0-10 m)

Beaufort-W



Alexandria, VASST trends & the AO

AO AO 1965-951965-95

divergdiverg

AtlWAtlW

OceanOcean

IceIce

Warming influenced by ocean & ice advection



Alexandria, VA

SST trends: regional anomaly time

series


series

(f) Chukchi

(a) Beaufort-E

(c) Bering St

(e) Kara

(d) ESS+ Laptev

(b) Beaufort-W

SST

(C)

SST

(C)

SST

(C)

Reynolds et al

recentwarming

recentwarming

recentwarming

in situin situsatellitesatellite

WOD’05

smoothedsmoothed

1930 1965 1995 1930 1965 1995



Alexandria, VA

July-AugSST

anomalies(rel to 1982-2007)

July-AugSST

anomalies(rel to 1982-2007)

Temperature Anomaly (C)

2000 2001 2002

200520042003

2006 2007

ehh

2007:What a year!

Max Anom 5°CMax Anom 5°C



Alexandria, VA

Thank YouThank You

Energy Transports across 70 deg N

Jan 365633 Feb 295006 Mar 301168 Apr 292278 May 349785 Jun 490397 Jul 620166 Aug 725292 Sep 733829 Oct 701069Nov 652471 Dec 366975

MJ

* 10

15

Months

Arctic Ocean Sensible Heat Content

Arctic Ocean Sensible Heat Content

1000 MJ/m2 1000 MJ/m2

Annualmean

70-90 degN

J M M MJ S NF A J A O D

Courtesy M Steele

The Emergence of Arctic Amplification

The Signature in CCSM3 Oct-Dec TemperatureAnomalies in NCEP,Relative to 1979-1999



Alexandria, VA


series


series

(f) Chukchi

(a) Beaufort-E

(c) Bering St

(e) Kara

(d) ESS+ Laptev

(b) Beaufort-W

SST

(C)

SST

(C)

SST

(C)

Reynolds et al

ice advection influence

recentwarming

recentwarming

recentwarming

decadal osc?

in situin situsatellitesatellite

WOD’05

smoothedsmoothed

1930 1965 1995 1930 1965 1995



Alexandria, VASST trends & the AO

AO AO 1930-651930-65

AO AO 1965-951965-95

coolingcooling warmingwarming

divergdivergconvergconverg

Ice advection influenceIce advection influence

sub-surface

sub-surface

PacWPacW

Ocean advection influenceOcean advection influence

AtlWAtlW



Alexandria, VANet Surface Heat Fluxfrom ERA-40

Net Surface Heat Fluxfrom ERA-40

Annual

W/m2

January

July

W/m2

upup

downdown…too much?…too much?

weak weak strongstrong



Alexandria, VA

SeasonalArctic Ocean

Energy Budget(ERA-40)

SeasonalArctic Ocean

Energy Budget(ERA-40)

LWtop too big

collaborative research: a heat budget analysis of the arctic climate system

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